Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 463. (Read 123192 times)

Good for you ser. You're still a student, single, AND YOUNG. I'm confident that the start of your Bitcoin journey EARLY in your life will give you a better probability of building a good portfolio by the time of your retirement. You are currently front-running BlackRock, and the other asset managers, if they haven't bought any Bitcoin yet.

Keep working, keep learning.

 

Furthermore, percentage change of the money supply in the United States from one year ago. It's down by -3.7%. That's another deflationary month since December, 2022. This might cause an economic crash in that region that could be a contagion for other regions.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=248494#0

Perhaps it's good to use half of what you're regularly using for DCA, and save it for a DIP?

Thank you for adding further clarification to this; I consider this information very helpful and I know other people do too. A lot of people in this forum might actually fall into this category of unsteady cashflow and this information will be very helpful for those who will be able to digest and implement it.

From your explanation, it is obvious that a simple averaging of upper and lower limits might not be  as efficient as keeping in mind the worst-case situation. As student, it is easy getting $10 per week for low income country oike mine  but sometimes it gets as high as $50. For a student in this situation that want to start investing in Bitcoin, a DCA of $10 per week will be more feasible

You don't "have to" be aggressive at any time that is other than what you want, and the level of your aggressiveness is like a sliding scale in which if you are choosing to be more aggressive than your usual level, you don't have to go all the way.. and frequently when you feel that you are able to be aggressive, that is because you have already measured your situation sufficiently enough to know how aggressive you feel comfortable being.

If you are brand new to bitcoin and you have not even really figure out your own financial situation, then your attempts to be aggressive would likely end up crossing over into gambling because you have not spent enough time studying the specifics of your finance and/or psychology in order to figure out how aggressive that you can be, and likely in the very beginning you might choose to error on the side of being a bit whimpy and maybe you would end up ONLY investing $10 per week when you are pretty sure that you could afford $60 to $100 per week, but you error on the side of being whimpy because you are still sorting through figuring out your budget both in terms of your finances and also in terms of your psychology.


Well sometimes you can do both, and you could be new to investing in bitcoin or into anything, and you realize that you ONLY have about 2-3 weeks worth of savings.. and so you want to get to 6 months ideally, but you might be willing to live with 3 months as a kind of less preferred scenario.. and so your realizing that you don't even have the basics in place may still not end up precluding you from putting some of your money in bitcoin while you are working from getting your emergency fund up from 2-3 weeks and then up to 3 months and then up to 6 months, so there could be ways that you continue to build both rather than completely staying out of investing.. because part of your power would be that you have identified where you are wanting to get to and that you are working on getting there rather than someone who is investing without actually identifying to where you are wanting to get.


You are very much on the right track.  The person who spent more time getting his/her shit together and has a strong emergency fund is going to be very much in a better position to deploy some of those extra reserves, and it takes time to get yourself into those kinds of strong positions, especially if you had not previously really identified with specifics where you want to be. (or need to be).  Even sometimes when you are in a position of strength, you sometimes might make some mistakes that will weaken your strength for several months until you build back up to where you should be but sometimes mistakes do happen... but if you had been in a position of strength, you are in a much better position to make mistakes than you are if you are already starting out from a position of weakness... so yeah, if you had been in a position of weakness and you make the same mistakes as the person who is in a position of strength, you might end up taking yourself out of the game, and the person in the position of strength has lived to fight another day, even if that person had gotten weakened from his/her mistakes.


Yeah, but what does that tell you?  Probably it tells you where you want to get to being rather than being resentful or jealous about people who happen to be in a better position than you.  There are always going to be people who are in better positions than you, but the more and more and more that you work on your own situation (and to improve it) then the more you are going to see that there are people in situations that are much worse than your own situation, and especially when it comes to bitcoin, we might look back in 2033 and see that there are people who are just getting into bitcoin who are way better off than you had been in 2023, however, you end up being way better off than them because you spent the last 10 years investing into bitcoin and they are just getting started, 10 years later than you... even if they are starting with more capital than what you had when you started, they are never going to be able to catch up to you.

Just imagine the person who spent $3k in 2015 to buy right around 10 bitcoin, and any person now is going to have to spend $265k in or to even attempt to get close to accumulating 10 bitcoin, so sometimes the underdog who is persistent and knows that bitcoin is a good place to put value is going to pass up some of his/her peers who are more wealthy than him because of their failure/refusal to try to find out about bitcoin and/or their failure/refusal to take any kinds of actions (even de minimus actions) to build up any kind of a bitcoin holdings, and so if you are building and accumulating bitcoin for 10 years, then you are quite likely going to pass them up in a lot of measures.. .. and of course, your passing them up is not guaranteed, but it is a kind of an asymmetric bet in which you can figure out how aggressive that you want to be and to potentially end up profiting from the upside if the upside ends up playing out.

Why most people aggressively invest in Bitcoin others still sees it as a ton of luck or risk. Bitcoin has so many factors compiled together so as to successfully achieve enough profits at its bull run, factors like risk management and market analysis are all to be put together.

That's what hinders my investment rate if I have to act aggressively in a bear market situation. Yes, to cover emergency fund reserves will take time and that could hinder one of the DCA options that I have done so far. So at this point the cushion we have is not too strong to move aggressively in accumulating BTC so I have to adjust this step well so as not to disturb me at the DCA level at each stage. However, for those who have large emergency fund reserves, they can certainly move more aggressively in the last few days to accumulate BTC below $26k. In this case, every decision is certainly supported by their financial aspects and will not interfere with their DCA strategy.

I see the points you are making, also same reason why most people sells of there investment because they have no left over money to carry out some expenses or emergencies . The best way they think of is to sell out there investment which is not helping due to wrong decision at the very beginning

That does not really change anything that I say.. if the change comes from changes in income or changes in expenses, there still are likely going to be needs to reassess from time to time, and some people still are going to have much more steady income as compared with others, and some people might have erratic extremes that cause their worse case scenarios to be $0.. and maybe they are always living on the edge too.. so they are barely able to meet their monthly expenses, and maybe some of those people should not be investing into bitcoin (even though the choice is theirs to make, but sometimes people make bad choices that amount to gambling, but they believe that they are investing.. but they do not really have enough of a cash flow or even an emergency fund to be in a position to be able to invest anything, but sometimes they still will invest and their choice to invest might end up being the wrong decision, even though everyone is free to make their own decisions, even when they make bad decisions and believe that they are working to make themselves better when they are not).

A live of a bachelor is never easy, this is just you living alone just for some few months and your level of Bitcoin accumulation has dropped drastically to a ratio of 3:10
I am wondering how it will become, once you start making babies and have a home, maybe it will get below the 3:10 accumulation.
You got to try brother, the responsibility is much to what we receive as salary.

Another factor can be based on the increase in price of goods and services in a country, whereby the persons salary no longer meets the requirements of the things that is needed to sustain one's self. I think that have enough effect to alter one's DCAing in accumulating Bitcoin

I might be a little bit defensive in this case for the sentence that you thickened in my previous opinion.
What I mean by it doesn't matter in this case because I don't really care what other people do about how they do the strategies they do because it won't hurt me and it's up to them whether to do what they do whether it's about DCA or buying with momentum utilization by spending their money / buying on a large scale when they want to.
The point is the suggestion where I suggest to do DCA and indeed I also still do not fully know more and understand well about some sub DCA that is pure or there are some other variables as you said but what I realize with DCA it will make us more comfortable in making investments because as we have discussed in the previous few pages, with DCA we are not too worried that the budget from DCA interferes with other needs of our expenses in one month because we have prepared and budgeted for it from the beginning when we know the income we receive.
Of course maybe when I understand more about DCA I might also do something like what you said by adding variables to DCA itself but for now I will only focus on DCA which might be pure if I look at what I do and the definition of pure DCA itself.

I still agree with what you said in the point where we invest only to spend part of what is left to buy BTC immediately it will be very risky for our needs in everyday life because we also still have to be charged with needs and all the necessities for us so we don't have to force it all in because this is used for the long term. Do not let you think about the long term that is too far away but do not think about life for tomorrow so that being aggressive is not really recommended especially when there is already a DCA strategy that we run as long as if other people still do that I don't really care because I don't really care the most important thing is that I do according to what I believe that when DCA is not really recommended to do other strategies so that the results are maximized but maybe you can still add variations or other variables to the DCA section as you said.

I like to think about the non-steady income in a couple of parts.

The first part is just figuring out what is your worst-case scenarios, what are your best case scenarios and what is your average... So then with that information you can try to project ahead, and most likely mostly using some combination of the worst-case scenarios and the average in order to figure out how much money you need to keep in your emergency fund in order to cover those situations in which the worst-case scenarios ended up playing out rather than the average case scenarios.

So, even though not necessarily likely worst-case scenarios could end up playing out for 6-12 months or more, and so the emergency cash fund should be able to cover the gap between what you need to live and what kind of income is coming in.  Hopefully, you are already spending (your monthly expenses) somewhere less than your average case scenario which should then cause for an ability to invest (or DCA) with part of the amount that you are living below your average case scenario. and sure if the worse case scenario persists for a long time, you may well end up needing to either reduce or eliminate your DCA purchases of bitcoin, but if you have planned in advance you should not necessarily need to stop your DCA, and for sure, you do not want to end up putting yourself in a position in which you end up having to sell any of your BTC during periods in which worse case scenarios are playing out.. which likely would mean that you had not sufficiently prepared in terms of your emergency fund and/or the ways that you had been choosing to live in order to make sure that you are generally living below the amount of your average case scenarios rather than spending more than that.

This was my thinking too and I even made a comment referencing an entrepreneur.  Thankfully, JJG explained convincingly, how this can be achieved. From that explanation, you can actually know your financial inflow within a certain period like a year, from that you can know what to set aside and plan your DCA accordingly.  You must not be earning fixed income monthly or werkly before you can perform DCA, even when your inflow is not regular, you can take average with a time period and as soon as you have any bulk funds, you can start off with the part that fits into the average you have worked out already and before it is exhausted,  you would have receieved another inflow base on your calculations.


This reminds me of the good old days when my parents were providing practically everything I needed. Imagine I knew about Bitcoin then, most of the monies I spent on things I can't even remember would have been properly preserved in Bitcoin.

A large number of normies (normal people) have troubles saving/investing up to 10% of their income into anything (including but not limited to bitcoin), and so it can sometimes be quite difficult to get into a kind of routine in which you are able to set-aside 10% of your income to invest into bitcoin.  And, so accordingly, anything above 10% to 30% seems like icing on the cake and fortune, and like you said there may be some instances in which some folks are able to save somewhere close to 100% of their income.. and those might be unusual kinds of circumstances, but also potentially fortunate kinds of circumstances when they are managed in a responsible way.. including that sometimes, even someone with 100% provided, still might find some ways that s/he wants to spend income for recreational and/or consumptive purposes... which is not an evil, since there are times in which people need to balance their psychology and maybe even their physicality with recreation and/or consumption that costs money.

I can get the mental picture of what you are saying and sometimes trying to increase your DCA level always ended up into wants or needs since you didn't spare some money or reserved some of it to back it for the next month expense before your monthly salaries comes in always put you in a tension. Do I say had ones experienced this as well but, that doesn't stops you from DCA'ing since you are yet to be in a family mood like some of us here who have kids that are really on our neck trying to make us got distracted with our DCA percentages.

That is why to always keep your DCA amount increase or a regular basis looking for additional cash could also help to retain that percentages you were having before ( That is to say, instead of dropping from 100 percent as previous alternative work could had been more better) although it's not a compulsion but just trying maintain your previous standard until you got to your desired point of accumulation.

There is no beed emphasizing too much on the benefits of having a large Bitcoin reserves and it potential profits merging compared to having just few bitcoin, i was DCA with almost 100% of my monthly income before,  because have hard free supplied of almost everything and leaved in my parent house, so it was so easy for me to put down all my earning into for my Bitcoin accumulations for some time almost 2 year accumulations with 100%all in funds that speed up my accumulation process, and within that time i have hard series of profits increases in proportion to my total accumulated amount of Bitcoin.
But few months ago i started living in my own apartment, and since then my Bitcoin accumulation has dropped below 30% of my monthly earning,s, and taken records of my profits merging within that space of time, it can't be compared in any way with what I use to earn as profits when I was all in 100% monthly, which is normal considering the amount I am investing in Bitcoin at the current stage.
But all the same, the DCA approach has become one of the most useful Bitcoin accumulation tools that have helped many investors to be able to accumulate Bitcoin all the way down while taking chances in the various discounted prices presented by Bitcoin from time to time.

It would be a shame if an opportunity to achieve something better is just wasted by some people who don't believe in winning through profits when they have more Bitcoin. If you look at financial strength, maybe not everyone has financial strength at the same level, so it is also true that some people with low financial strength can use DCA to get Bitcoin in bearish moments like now. That is quite the right solution, but I see that there are still some who don't want to use this as an option to get Bitcoin when the bearish situation is happening.

Apart from the many arguments that are currently being made regarding market conditions, I also prefer the argument that you express that in the event of the FTX issue, everyone should be very prepared to face bearishness by making DCA purchases in Bitcoin. Although I also don't know how long people will hold it after buying at low prices, but overall it would be great if everyone would take advantage of the bearish moment by buying more before they see a bullish market in the market which could possibly happen after this year.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Ryu_Ar1.. but it just seems that you might be suggesting that there are ways to really be active in DCA beyond merely just figuring out how much for each period and applying it..

Accordingly, I would suggest that anyone who is trying to strategize with buying on dips for part of his/her income that is allocated to buy BTC is not engaging in pure DCA, and there really is nothing wrong with supplementing a DCA strategy with some variation of buying on dip.

Remember a pure DCA would strictly be looking at how much income you have coming in and what are your expenses (including making sure that your emergency fund is covered), and then whatever that is left over would be used to buy BTC, so the weekly, monthly or twice a month amount may well differ depending upon variation of cashflow and variation of expenses. 

Now if a conscious choice is made to ONLY spend part of what is left on buying BTC right away, and the other portion is used for buying on dips, then there is no longer a strict DCA practice going on, and there is nothing wrong with deviating from a strict DCA as long as you realize that part of what you are doing is DCA and the other part is attempting to strategize to buy on dips.

So I think that part of my point is that anyone who is trying to strategize in regards to his/her DCA is applying some kind of a variation of DCA.. and there is really nothing wrong with that.


You can still be aggressive when employing DCA.

The more that you know your budget and the better established your emergency fund, then the more aggressive you can be.  One of the problems is that sometimes people confuse aggressiveness with a kind of gambling so being reckless in terms of not having an emergency fund, so maybe there are questions of whether your cushion in your funds is enough to cover your expenses for 3 months or for 6 months, and sometimes, guys might make choices to become more aggressive for a short period of time and to reduce their cash cushion from 6 months to 3 months, and therefore end up investing the extra 3 months of emergency fund into bitcoin, and sure that is risky and it is aggressive, but and even if it might be on the edge of high aggressiveness, it might not end up being overly aggressive in the sense of causing a person to get reckt, even if he has decided to spend some money on bitcoin that he usually has as his cushion and/or his emergency fund... those  are very calculated kinds of risk, that a person might think through and decide to make them because he has good ideas about what he is doing and putting at risk.. and maybe even having some ideas about how long it might take to replenish that fund in the future.. 3-6 months?  maybe a year?  those are pieces of information in his specific calculation to which he should be able to know the answers.


I did most of my DCA into BTC between November 2013 and early 2017.. . .and I did a bit of DCA after 2017 too.

DCA has been a popular strategy for a long time, and of course, those of us following BTC discussions are able to have a lot of sources for financial information, and surely some of those sources are better than others because sometimes a person might be talking about trading rather than DCA.. and surely people can get distracted away from DCA, even though there is a lot of good information that is available for the ones who are able to make sure that they don't get distracted into bad (or less good) BTC accumulation strategies... but at the same time, the best of strategies might not even be strictly DCA, so any one of us has to figure out which strategy works for our own circumstances.. and sometimes even if we might start out with DCA, after a few years of doing a more strict version, we might end up converting into some kind of  a more personally tailored version that is more suitable to our circumstances, and we also might be able to learn more about ourselves in the earlier years in order to know how to tweak our DCA strategy or whatever variation of DCA that we might end up following... Through most of 2014, I used to call my DCA strategy to be a kind of front-loading DCA strategy, even though the strategy that I was following did have some buying on dip attempts and it also did end up contributing to my buying BTC throughout all of 2014, so that I was feeling quite a bit under water through almost all of 215, when BTC prices were much lower than my average cost per BTC.


One thing that is so great about DCA is that you can figure out for yourself, and sure, if you end up getting a $500 to $1k bonus once or twice a year, then you are going to have options regarding how you choose to spend that $500 to $1k extra when it comes in, and you may well end up choosing to buy BTC with it right away rather than spreading out your BTC purchases.. It is not always an easy choice to figure out how to employ extra cash when it comes in.. especially if you feel that you don't frequently come across extra cash. but the more you go through with buying BTC regularly, at some point you might decide that you are going to divide that lump sum into three parts in order to allocate 1/3 towards each (Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), and then there might be some other times in which you feel that you want to strategize your purchases to buy on dips, and you might divide the lump sum into 3, but instead keep it all in one category, which is to buy on dips.. so you might buy 1/3 right away, and then the 2/3 to buy after a $1.5k drop in price if it happens and the 3/3 part, you might assign to buying that amount upon a BTC price drop of 4,680.

Those are your choices, and it seems to me that the more BTC that you get, the less stressed that you are in regards to buying BTC right away with your extra cash, and you become more wiling to set your BTC buy prices and just wait for the BTC price to come to you, and hopefully you are not too greedy in the places where you set your purchase prices, because if you already have enough BTC, the you are not worried about the BTC price going up because you already have enough BTC.


Yes, it is a bit easier to draw from historical prices in order to show how two different practices might have had played out differently, and surely none of us should consider that it is realistic to even be considering that $333 BTC prices are even possible (or likely), even though there are non zero chances that they could occur, but we should not be structuring our BTC buying plans based on outlandish scenarios rather than more likely scenarios... and the same is true for sub $20k, not very likely but possible and surely more possible than $300 and even more possible than sub $10k.. and surely se might never see BTC prices below $26k ever again, so these kinds of used to be prices versus where we are at now are sets of probabilities, and even if we might try to be somewhat prepared for very extreme scenarios, our base case preparations should be attempting to prepare for more likely scenarios rather than outlandish scenarios that may well not even end up happening. 

and each of us has to figure out our level of preparations and how much cash do we keep available for those "just in case" scenarios rather than just investing regularly and perhaps just having a small portion of our overall cashflow that is set aside and staggered down for some of the outrageous scenarios that may well likely never happen, and for me, these days, after having had been in bitcoin for nearly 10 years, I am way more prepared for outrageous scenarios than I was when I first started in BTC, even though I had already come to bitcoin with more than 20 years of investing experience (and building up of an investment portfolio) so I had already had money that I had prepared for outrageous scenarios, but in the 1990s I did not have as many cash reserves as I had in the 2010s... so some of the building up of cash reserves comes (or should come) with the passage of time and experience to build the reserves that each of us has in each of the categories as we establish our various kinds of holdings (and investments) into differing things.

In fact, it is impossible for them to miss this bearish moment to accumulate BTC. Yes, every opportunity that comes is an advantage that can be exploited. If you throw away this opportunity, it means you are throwing away the opportunity to get BTC at a low price. For me, financial strength is one of the things that can make you act more aggressively in a bearish situation, but if our finances are not too strong then the wiser option is of course DCA.
 Some strong arguments about this decline are due to the issue of FTX which will sell their BTC holdings which has made the market situation change rapidly in recent days. This is a profit that can be obtained for those who are patient in waiting for bearish conditions to accumulate BTC. Well, on another point, it remains sustainable for the long term and you can feel comfortable with the profits that come your way, keep buying at low prices whatever strategy you use. keep buying and holding.

Well I quite understand what you are saying my friend, basically every market participant has his own way to invest wherever it is. Okay maybe you are one of those who are always patiently waiting for significant bearish conditions to then open an investment, and well that is indeed quite good if you can patiently wait for the moment. Honestly, I'm not saying that's the case, and maybe most market participants will do the same thing, especially for long-term targets. 

And yes I agree with the opportunity you said, because indeed now is the right moment to then buy or collect more bitcoin, we can see now bitcoin is experiencing a price correction and the price is now almost touching support a few months ago. So basically if indeed you have the ability financially to then allocate a little of your money for bitcoin then I would say this is the right moment that you can take, but well I hope you will use money that might not be at risk if it is lost, because as we know the market is very volatile so at any time you can experience losses if the market is not in your favor. You use DCA, I agree to this because I think this is a strategy that is more supportive of your financial condition and with DCA it is safer.

I agree with you on the DCA strategy, as that it the strategy I intend using to accumulate more bitcoin to my bitcoin portfolio as a newbie. On Tuesday, I took a bold step to my buy first bitcoin, you can see it here
I am very excited and I have prepared myself towards a very long bitcoin journey based on when I reach my bitcoin target. I have a job at hand, and I have assigned 10% of my monthly income for DCAing consistently till I reach my bitcoin target. I have thought deeply of how I can be able to make my bitcoin journey easy and successful during my accumulation period and the most possible way is through DCA.

This is the reason why I have come back to the thread to become active so that I can be on the same page with experts on how a newbies can grow his bitcoin portfolio using the right method. I love the DCA method of accumulating bitcoin because it will motivate you to always be ready to buy, no matter the price of bitcoin, because at the long wrong, you will still be able to make profit.

Anytime you say…
This goes beyond anytime as sometimes, the motive could be to buy. With big companies in the picture, your expecting huge buys that could lead to a slight pump in price with a higher demand of bitcoin.
If the reverse is the case where you have them selling, there you could talk about a slight dump.

Having to place an order to execute at the $20k price isn’t a bad idea as, it executes for you without you focused on the chats and you won’t get to miss the price mark but, you get to realize this is you having to leave your money on an exchange. Even still, there isn’t any much assurance that price might dump to that price and you would be loosing on the value you would have got them from that money should bitcoin continue to pump as, you would definitely have your coin in an altcoin, maybe stable coin at that.