Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 466. (Read 123178 times)

You are absolutely correct, the historical patterns indicate that low volatility is often followed by sharp and impulsive moves in Bitcoin price. While predicting future price of Bitcoin is extremely challenging task, considering low liquidity in the market and average buying cost of  Bitcoin in the range of $23,000 to $24,000, according to on-chain analysis, suggest the possibility of further downward movement in Bitcoin's price before any potential reversal becomes evident.


https://markets.chainalysis.com/#trading

Are you sure that we are not going to see further dips from this level? This very dip has lingered around the 26k region and from experience, when the consolidation is extended, there is always this sharp move in the opposite direction to the real major move. Going by that, I think we might see a little lower prices before the much awaited bull market.

Comparing the present market condition to the 15-16k dip is not perfect to me because while the later happened within a very short period of time, the former is still ongoing for about two months and counting.

So it is best to keep an open mind and DCA is just enough for that. When price lingered around the 29k region, I was tempted to allocate all my funds then through instant execution. Am glad I did not yield to that temptation as I had to set limit orders at different lower price points of which some have been filled at lower prices.  I guess that might be what is going on with you. Anyways, it your funds and your decision to make... just follow your heart.

Either of the two is a good idea and a suggestion to take, we need to know this that using the DCA pattern is required of us to keep on a constant check on the market volatility and how it rises and fall from the mainstream, we have to have a closer study on the chart, observe the movements and be able to derive out what may be the next expectation on the market to either dump or pump, this will aid our own method of using DCA effectively, whereby we buy immediately we sense the signal for dump and hold while the market pumps and we keep repeating the process althrough out the month.

Good Job and I Wait for your update. Yes. BTC Price now $25,786 and Market participants tend to switch between the basic emotions of greed and fear. The above elements become very powerful when used in combination. Learning to survive in the market requires us to develop discipline, patience and skill. If we are able to identify pattern formations and project price movements if the entire pattern is successful, it will definitely improve trading. To make profitable trades, again, I think we need to learn how to size the market.

#Bitcoin    Impulsive Move Nearby. 🚀

The extremely low volatility we are witnessing right now is not something new in #BTC    cycles. It usually lead to impulsive moves.

Pay close attention to the 2nd dip in green 🟢.
In 2016, the crossover after the dip led to an impulsive move to the upside. The same thing occurred in 2019.

The 2nd dip just occurred in 2023.

I know many are expecting a red 🔴 September with a deeper pullback. Yet in markets, as i told you EOY 2022, when too many people are expecting a scenario to occur, each and every time the opposite happens.

Let's see how it plays out this time.
I'll keep you posted. 🫡


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Better to invest as per DCA once a month. And if you have a lot of money then definitely invest twice a month according to DCA.

 But you must be talking on the other side, it is better not to discuss such things here.

Invest according to DCA for present time then you will be successful in holding for long time. According to the DCA, buying in Bitcoin certainly encourages you to buy more later. Successful whaling stocks can certainly be harvested through DCA using such methods.

Heh if I have eli5 all my posts there will be mountains of texts but fair point may have been a bit cryptic and I suppose me included English isn’t my first language, things can be misunderstood.

hahahahahaha

I was going to respond to superman184 and say something very similar in regards to what had seemed to have been a misreading (and/or misunderstanding of what you had previously posted), but much better coming from you... and probably was not exactly clear in your first post... that's one of the risks of writing too cryptically and without explanations.

Personally, I enjoy reading some of the details regarding what people are doing, so for example, they might say that they have a regular DCA amount that is weekly or monthly or twice a month, and they might not even say the size of it, but you stated more clearly in your second post that you are continuing with your regular DCA amount and adding more too it.. which seems to show a better understanding of the difference between DCA and buying on dip, even though they frequently will blend because if you keep on buying extra on the dip and then that regularly extra buy on the dip becomes a kind of hybrid of DCA and buying on the dip since you are adding it during a dipping time and then presumptively removing it once BTC prices go above a certain threshold (if we can presume that some day the BTC prices may well end up going up from here).

I think you are not understanding what I posted. At no point did I say I was waiting for a lower price. I was saying that this dip feels like the same buying opportunity that presented itself to us in the 15-16k dip. I’m allocating more buying $ at this level on top of any dca I’m doing.

I know it's useful advice, but you have to be able to weigh the risks and adjust the budget proportions so you don't regret it.
There are some things that tend to shake the market quickly so you need to prepare a budget to accumulate, while you can still use 1/3 of your current budget to buy and set aside the other 2/3 for preparation. This is great for dealing with unstable market conditions, it will achieve maximum utilization of your budget.

Currently the price of bitcoin is not expensive compared to its highest price in 2021, but you also need to make adjustments so you don't just focus on current market conditions and forget about other possibilities in the following days.

Maybe it is better to use an example with this?

Let's say a person has been in bitcoin since May 2017, and he had been investing around $50 per week into bitcoin, so he has accumulated right around 1.8 BTC for an investment amount of around $16.6k.

Maybe this person has an income of around $20k per year, so the value of his BTC stash is already more than a couple of years of salary.. and so then maybe s/he also has some dry powder of around $6,000 saved up, so then if s/he is keeping up with DCA, s/he might also be wanting to buy on dips.. but if s/he had already been buying on dips, the maybe s/he would pick a few locations to put the buy orders, and to keep some dry powder?

S/he could place 6 orders of $1k at various places, or 3 orders of $2k.. but if the cash is still coming in, then the reserve amount might build up too.  I am not suggesting where to put the buy orders exactly, and that is part of the reason that I have my own buy orders placed very $500, and my buy orders had already filled down through $25.5k-ish.. so then the next ones are every $500 from $25k down to $13k.. but maybe you would not consider that your $6k can go down that far and your buy orders would end up being too small if you were to try to spread them out that much. 

So surely there is discretion regarding figuring out how much you have and where you would like to place your buy orders in such a way that they go down far enough that you feel satisfied.. even if there are no guarantees that BTC prices will even go below $25k, and then the next support would likely be around $22k and then likely $20k, etc etc.. and I hate to even think beyond $20k if $25k support has not yet been breached... even though I do have buy orders already down to $13k, but if the BTC price did end up getting close to $20k, then (at that time) I most likely would have to readjust the buy orders that I already have standing.  In other words, why cross any of the bridges until we get there even if there might already be some preparedness that surely I don't even want the BTC price to go below $25k, even though I am prepared, just in case it goes down to $13k, and part of the rationale also is that I profit way more from the BTC price going up rather than down, even though I would be able to pick up some extra BTC (or satoshis) if the BTC price were to go down.


Ongoing, persistent and consistent DCA seems to be best for people who are in their earliest of days in their BTC accumulation journey, and even if you have been DCA buying on a weekly basis for 1 or 2 years, it can take a long time to build up your overall BTC portfolio size if you are ONLY able to accumulate between $15 to $25 of BTC per week and furthermore, it can be difficult to save money on the side in order to be able to lump sum, especially if the  $15 to $25 of BTC per week amounts that you are buying are really hard to divide  up or to hold some value on the side. 

There sometimes could be events where any of us might come across lump sums of money.. maybe even $1k or $2k once or twice a year, and in those kinds of cases, we might feel that we have fallen into a kind of luxury position in terms of trying to figure out if we want to lump sum buy or DCA or buy on dips or some combination of the three, and surely I have frequently suggested that the default approach should be to consider dividing whatever extra cash that comes in into three parts which are the lump sum, DCA and buying on dips, and then figure out how much to allocate to each of the three categories.. and you may well be more powerfull and resilient as a BTC investor if you are able to build up your own situation in such a way that you always have some fiat that is available that is extra in each of the three categories.. even though part of that cash may well be working too, and we know that some times the BIG price changes can cause some of the categories to either run out or to become extremely depleted, but the DCA should not so easily become depleted so long as you have cash coming in and so long as you consider that you are in your early days of BTC accumulation.. but the longer you accumulate BTC, then the more you might start to consider that you are no longer in your early days of BTC accumulation and you have advanced to a newer level in which you might need to reassess some of your techniques based on where you consider yourself to be.

Lum sump? Well, that thought will be on our minds especially when the price falls significantly when there is spare money, I want to buy lum sump but I undo that intention and put more principles on the DCA strategy.

In fact, I don't want to be aggressive with buying at once even though this is a good way to also buy below at once but DCA will be a little chaotic and between once a week it becomes vulnerable to distance because it has bought below, my mind is that even if it continues to DCA with every week it will also be better and will not be a burden.

Now I want to be like flowing water in a river, no matter what the price is, I will try the DCA method.

Can't expected with Bitcoin will return back under 15k although many bad news every day and Bitcoin price not consistency on higher price, I don't think good ideas have waiting until Bitcoin dropped under $20k based on current bitcoin price right now have dropped to $25,700. If doubt for accumulating bitcoin better spent of your capital for investing in bitcoin around 60% and 40% left you can buy back later if prediction with Bitcoin will drop under $20k or have more lower price in the future.

I don't optimistic with bitcoin have another lower price in the future, seems current bitcoin price not really expensive right now and if have much fund is the best opportunity for investing in Bitcoin during with lower price around $25k.

It is what it is bro... peopple have different perspectives,  different motivation and different personalities. So, while some just want the money others might actually be fascinated with the tech and in all, both are doing what make them happy and that is what really matters.

Believing in Bitcoin is one of the most important step in this journey. You cannot hold Bitcoin if you don't believe and have some level of faith in it. Remember where your money is is where your mind is.

There is no point making this complicated. The only action required is to ensure you have accumulated Bitcoin, then leave the market and time to prove you wrong or right. You only loose in Bitcoin when you sell...

Buying at a price that is too deep will not always be good because you will not get what you want to buy. If you hunt for Bitcoin at that price this year I think it will be difficult for you to get it, but if you don't really mind buying Bitcoin at the $25K level and holding it while waiting for a higher price, I think that's quite logical and very possible for you to do now.

So don't waste your time waiting for a lower price if you have the ability to buy at the current price, because in my opinion the current price of Bitcoin is not that expensive and maybe the opportunity to buy at the current price will not come twice this year, Moreover, next year the price of Bitcoin is predicted to experience a much better increase than this year.

As I said before even though the impulsive way is good enough for some people but not all can do it because in the end if you do a fairly impulsive way it can make profits much bigger but on the other hand the purchases we make become uncontrolled and consistency is lost because only buying with a large nominal and forgetting the initial scheme when doing DCA.

That is not a problem if you have enough funds to make regular impulsive purchases (buying at once with a larger amount of money) but if in the end this can disrupt the initial strategy of DCA with a predetermined amount according to the monthly income budget minus living expenses and other needs then I think it would be better to do DCA consistently rather than buying irregularly even with a larger amount.
In your explanation, what I can conclude is that trying to do DCA and buying aggressively during a downturn, as long as we have more funds maybe it can be done by some people but of course we have to have some other considerations in this case so it would be better to do it in a conventional way as it has always been done (with DCA) rather than taking risks where this can interfere with the strategy carried out because doing 2 buying strategies at once of course we have to redetermine the budget set for investment.

It should be so, if I see your investment pattern is relevant and identical to a long-term approach by not being too busy checking back on the BTC portfolio after you buy and you have determined when you should look again. But, sometimes people read the moment too and that's a normal thing to do. Currently, they may still use a short-term investment approach, once they buy BTC after some time they check it again because there are still emotional factors, fear due to panic and worry if the correction gets deeper but, on the positive side it could be that they want to identify several opportunities to take advantage from market volatility and evaluate strategies to avoid deeper losses.

The plan is in long-term investment, So we will not measure how strong we are doing at the end of the week or measure the amount of btc in the short term. It won't make you feel comfortable doing DCA, If your mind keeps measuring the depth of your BTC holdings. I made BTC purchases on several exchanges and after that I withdrew my Btc to a personal wallet and would not check it against the amount.  Lol

I have a strong assumption that those who frequently check the amount of BTC in their portfolio means they will not have a great instinct to hold it in the long term. I don't know the reasons, but the best thing in my opinion is to check the depth of BTC holdings when we have reached our investment target, be it 5 years or 2 years, it's up to them to decide.

Sim_card, I'd rather you not write a wall of text like when you quote my post, it definitely makes my eyes blur when I read the post. I tried to paragraph it as I did in quote, so that people who read it don't experience visual impairment. Lol

After reading your entire post, I know what you are trying to conclude. Of course, your mindset is still better than some people who keep fiat under their pillow, of course that's bad considering that fiat will lose value over time. Bitcoin is an asset that allows its investors to gain value growth, but can also cause them to lose some of its value. The main consequence is that you need to consider the amount of loss you can afford, even if you are confident that in the long term your investment will bring you return.

This the reason why i love DCA than any other method of accumulating bitcoin to your investment portfolio,because it is easy to do and wouldn't make you feel the exccessive funds that you are putting into your bitcoin investment because you are doing it gradually. Unlike that of the aggressive buy that can turn out to be risky because if you only buy at dip with an aggressive pattern,when the price of bitcoin falls below what you bought it,you would be worried and will never have a rest of mind compare to the person that is DCAing irrespective of the price of bitcoin. We can't looking into the future to see what it has for us and for bitcoin price and that is why aggressive buying isn't a sure way of stashing up your bitcoin for a given period of time due to the volatile nature of bitcoin. With DCA you are sure that your bitcoin portfolio will keep on increasing as long has there is a portion of your income that is assigned to bitcoin weekly or monthly. It is the amount of bitcoin that we have now that determines the size of our bitcoin portfolio and not the one that we expect to buy later.

Bitcoin investment needs patience and you must hodli for a very long time,this is one of the reason why it is bad for anyone to go and borrow money to invest in bitcoin because of profit. Nobody will borrow you money let's say for upto 6-7yrs without causing a big problem. Infact it is unethical to borrow money to invest on a high volatile investment like bitcoin. This is the reason why you should have a cash inflow before you decide of investing and you should only use the money that is not of important to you or that you can afford to lose for your investment,to avoid selling at loss due to panic when the price goes below the price that you bought or pressure from whoever that you borrowed money from. You might end up in regretting your actions because you weren't prepared towards starting you bitcoin investment. This is how those people who is unaware that investing in bitcoin in long term needs proper preparation to be successful.