Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 465. (Read 123181 times)

This is exactly my views and I have stated same here. Glad to see you put it in another perspective and with a reference. I have always known that when the consolidation lingers, there are higher chances of sharp moves in the opposite direction to the intended real direction. The market makers do this for two reasons: to seek for liquidity( such as hunting for the stop loss of those who would have entered the market with their protective stops below the range) and to create fear and panic (this is where weak hands sell while strong hands buy more). This pattern is consistent across all tradable asset classes.

Your analysis is good I must admit, however, I want you to look at it from another perspective. You will agree with me that there was no major news/event from 2022 till date that market will respond vigorously to. This a lone is an indication that price movement from next year will be totally different from that of last year till now because we are expecting major news/events next year. If this is correct, do you think the move will just happen without some market manipulations? The big guys will most likely want to buy very cheap; they have different mechanisms through which they achieve this. Buying at the present price level is good and very encouraging but that does not eliminate the possibility of further downside. I am not actually perturbed by further dip because I follow my DCA religiously.

That's right, Bitcoin has a history of surprising market participants with unexpected moves and what is clear right now is that Bitcoin is all the rage now, Well, now How do we put yourself in the best position to trade and invest in Bitcoin in moments like these meaning there are many trading strategies that can be applied, whether you want to trade the DCA model, the instinct model, or technical analysis and try and gauge the Bitcoin market sentiment and take advantage of this for sure.

Of course we have to have extra money again and  next to go to the exchange, make a local money deposit, money that will be used to buy Bitcoin otherwise moments like this will just pass by.

Your approach to investing in Bitcoin is a prudent one and aligns with the long-term financial planning and risk management. Although many market experts are anticipating a major dip in Bitcoin's price, dropping to price to $20,000 or even below, based on their fundamental and technical analysis, but it is important to recognize that such forecasts are not certain. Bitcoin has history of surprising market participants with unexpected movements. However, if such a scenario unfolds, it would be wise to capitalize on this potentially lucrative moment.

Manipulation will always be there because in the end some of those with large funds will want something cheaper in the purchase but in this case we don't need to bother thinking I think because we also only need to focus on what we want to aim for and the pattern we always do in the end.
Apart from the many manipulations that occur we just have to follow the right momentum in purchasing because we have our own strategy for that, so that when those who have a lot of money try to manipulate (although this has little impact on bitcoin) but we also need to utilize momentum according to the buying strategy we have.

If you're already buying in the $25k area, that's obviously a good deal. You don't need to buy in the same area if you believe the price can still fall, and the concept of dips and DCA requires you to buy lower than that.


Of course, you can change your purchasing plan and adapt it to market conditions.
If $22k seems like a reasonable buy for your entire budget, then there's no need to wait in the $21k area. But all decisions are yours, so I have no right to give you financial advice, I mean 10% of which may be inaccurate.

Already brought around $25k, so what are the points of buying again if I am only buying the dip? I put in an advanced order because sometimes the price hits my expected level and doesn't stay there for long. So I put my buy order around $20,000, but that doesn't mean I will wait for $20,000 to hit. I think I will probably fill my order manually if BTC goes around $21,000. I often use this method to fill my order.

I'm a few months into my initial BTC accumulation journey but I'm still persevering in this way.

I do not intend for 1 or 2 years but want to be longer at least 5 years and above so that the results are greater in the accumulation, maybe my initial journey is in the range of $15 and $25 every week but over time it will definitely increase and the level of DCA size per week will increase even more if I get some other sources of income, this is being tried and learned to increase the income in order to grow a larger DCA portfolio.

I will do a lum sump when..... Getting a bonus from work, being able to cover the cost of necessities from the month's salary and not disturbing the emergency fund, I will do lum sump that way.

But now I will not force it, I will continue to persevere in the DCA strategy and this is probably the most practical that has been used by many people like us. So continue with the DCA strategy, there are other strategies that I will consider when I have more money.

If you place an order in the $20k area now, then that means you are really expecting a big drop. Of course this may happen, but; buying with this scenario does not seem to have a high percentage of success. I never meant to discourage you from waiting long for a downturn, but a downturn that big requires a lot of FUD as well. I don't even think you need to place an order at $20k right now, that seems wasteful to me.

Just buy it now with the same scenario. This means you buy in at $25k with half your budget now and the other half in hand. You could certainly place an order at $20k after buying at $25k with half the first budget, that seems better to consider instead of waiting for something uncertain. At least you can benefit if the price never drops below $24k, so you already have bitcoin from half your budget.

In this case I think it depends on how you are able to do consistency in doing DCA regardless of a week, 2 weeks or once a month I think it doesn't matter and it's not how much money you have but how your strategy is in managing so that the money you budget for DCA does not interfere with other needs and you are able to do it consistently.

Buying more in what context are you saying? When you say buying more in one moment it can disrupt the consistency of your DCA which in turn is a setback for the DCA that you have been doing for some time because of the aggressiveness made in one moment.

I tried to put half of my order in advance and keep half in hand in case it dips down more i will have some left in my hand to lower my average. My order is around the 20k level and if the price crash further down i will not buy any more until it touches 15k which won't happens i think. Actually, it doesn't matter what i think i just made some planning for my investment strategies and won't change it until there is some unusual scenario occurs.

You are the one employing the SIP and trying to figure out whether there is a dip or not..   My way of doing things is pretty damned dip neutral, at least in the sense that I had already set up my orders down to $13k around last November, and just added to them (on the way up) when the BTC price went up and made some decent adjustments to the size of the orders in June 2023 due to extra money that I had come across (accidentally  or whatever).  You are the one trying to figure out a dip (and I have no problems with that), not me...


Well, if you think that you got it figured out, then fine.. good luck with that... and if you think that you got it in the bag, then we just have to wait to see how it plays out.. and I suppose ONLY you are going to know the extent to which your orders end up getting filled, unless you want to disclose the various price points that you have your buy orders or do you employ your BTC buys manually rather than setting them in advance?


There's always manipulation, but the manipulation is not always down, and sometimes even the manipulators end up getting reckt, so they may well be playing a dangerous game if that is what they are doing... but hey I hardly give any shits.. if the BTC price goes down, then I buy every $500 down to $13k, and if the BTC price starts to get near $20k, I might have to consider adjusting my BTC buy orders between $13k and $20k.. otherwise I am not trying to strategize dips, even though I know a lot of guys are following this thread are engaged in such attempts, so there is nothing wrong with doing that and talking about it because it is surely a central aspect to this thread's topic..

....but it is not going to do you a whole hell of a lot of good to ask me regarding what I think beyond some of my earlier assertions about where I consider there to be support points, and i am not even changing much if any of my BTC buy orders based on where I consider those support points to be, except like I said, I might start to reconsider the size and the placement of my BTC buy orders between $13k and $20k if the BTC price starts to get close to $20k and it appears that it might end up breaking DOWNity through support.. and surely I hope none of that happens, but I have buy orders currently in place to account for that..and a kind of tentative plan in case it ends up happening.. but I am not going to cross the bridge or attempt to cross the bridge until we get there (if we get there?).

Your observation is notably good. But are you certain that there will not be any more dip? As far as I know, when some big company or organization tries to enter the Bitcoin market it crashes down to give them a better opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a low price. This is pure manipulation but this has happened before. It is certain that Blackrock-like company is coming to the Bitcoin market in the future so don't you think there will be some kind of manipulation before the next halving events?

I don't have any objection to what you are doing or even any kind of dispute that your system is able to beat a pure DCA approach. 

However, your approach is likely much better applied after you have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC rather than an approach for either a beginner no coiner/low coiner or someone who considers themselves to be in very early stages of BTC accumulation...  but surely once you might have already crossed some BTC accumulation threshold, then there can be a decent amount of advantages to customize your strategies or even to move away from DCA and more into Buying on dip or some variation of those which seems to be what your SIP approach represents.

Yes, you are right i am only purchasing when my dip formula triggers. Because of this always have funds when the market crashes. After investing that money i started saving my money for the next dip and in this way, I have been buying for the last 2 years. I need to take a look at all my transactions to calculate an average but i am confident that i have more than those who are doing DCA a regular intervals. I know bitcoin investors feel anxious if they have any cash in their hands. They wanted to buy more Bitcoin no matter what the price is. That is why i mentioned that SIP makes people psychologically disciplined.


Maybe you are right this time but i am expecting a last one before the halving. If your prediction becomes true then i will buy everything i have one month before halving. This is my plan for now. Crypto is full of surprises so who knows what happens next? One negative news we will dip or one positive news we will pump.

Having a strategy and not rushing into things is important. I'm always thinking about the future, and I don't believe in investing just for quick profits, especially with Bitcoin. I like that many people here focus on long-term goals. One reason I don't invest a large sum all at once is because it's better to start early when you have the money and not wait for the huge capital to be there. If I try to save up a big amount to invest later, I might end up spending it on something else. So, I prefer to invest $100 from each paycheck, spreading it out over 3-12 months. This way, I can accumulate more Bitcoin over time.

I am going to suggest that your description of SIP does not sound like it is anything that special because in the way that you describe it, it is not that much of a variation of DCA.. and it largely sounds like a variation of DCA... especially since the intervals of DCA can spread out too.. and so your mere assertion that you are attempting to be strategic with when you are employ your DCA in order to attempt to buy on dips, but you are still attempting to buy regularly, so in essence you are still attempting to do your own variation of DCA.

Now, on the other hand, if you tell me that you are ONLY attempting to buy on the dips and you just let the incoming money build up until your buy on the dip formula triggers, then maybe in that case you might not be DCA'ing.. but even those who are buying on the dip will sometimes start to get anxious if they have several months of cash building up and not getting put to work (out of concern that the BTC price might not dip anymore).

This might be the reason I am not doing DCA instead I am doing SIP( Systematic Investment Plans ) Every time i see a dip in the market I buy as much as i can. I am not investing every month but I am investing regularly which makes it more adaptable and flexible for the volatile market when for a strategy like DCA you need to invest a constant amount in regular intervals. DCA can reduce emotional decision making but SIP strategy can make you more disciplined psychologically. Also, DCA costs more transaction fees because of the frequent transaction that needs to be done. I think SIP is not as popular as DCA because i haven't found too many people talking about this. ansaction

Your choice of DCA frequency is not very much connected to whether or not you have "a lot of money", even though sometimes the fees could affect frequency of DCA for those who have very low amounts of money.



You are speaking gobble-dee-gook Popkon6.


how long you hold is likely a separate decision from the various ways that you choose to accumulate your BTC.


Do you think so?  There are ways to fuck up DCA too.. including overdoing it in such a way that you have failed/refused to adequately account for your cashflows and expenses...

DCA will mostly work as long as you don't overdo it.. but surely it has to apply to an asset like bitcoin that has decently strong presumptions of underlying value that will cause the price to go up in the longer run... .so most of the the ways to screw up DCA in regards to bitcoin would be to overdo it..

And of course this thread is not just about DCA.. DCA is not even in the title.. we are talking about buy the dip and HODL.. so those are surely trade off accumulation approaches that should be accounted for in order to attempt to mostly stay topical to the thread, especially in a thread like this.


What the fuck is whaling stocks and why should we give any shits?

We are talking about bitcoin here.  Does "whaling stocks" somehow have any relationship to BTC?


Those are not even your own words, you fuck..   Maybe you could at least put quotes around your long quoting of others in which we can ONLY figure out that they are not your words by having to click on an outside link.

By the way, there is a bit of hyperbole going on in the statement in regards to "each and every time the opposite happens"

That's bullshit.

Whenever anyone uses absolute language, they are either saying or strongly implying that there is some kind of a guarantee.. which our spidey senses should be going up whenever we see people using those kinds of words in their predictions of the future... or even whether such representation is really even true about the past.

You can follow the next news from the Sumber Twitter account quoted by 100% by him no need to wait for an update from him. It is not the original speculation that comes from him.

There are very many verified badge accounts that provide information about the speculation of Bitcoin and other crypto prices.

Measuring the market is not easy as measuring the distance units or units of length that we have learned at school. When it's time Bitcoin has increased based on the level of supply and demand, all speculation changes and many speculators provide their new speculation. It's like a habit that I see.

Mndset that should be used as a pattern by us in waiting for times when all predictions and speculation of Bitcoin prices reach a new ATH is to be willing to use every income to increase the volume of bitcoin in the deposit wallet.

When i consider what is a dip I think about the % diff between the last level and where it sits currently. I also look thru my dca accounting see how much I bought at that level previously. I look at some charts too and look at times it stayed at that level  etc. you can never be too sure that it’s going to dip further or not however even if you get it wrong your dca will scoop it up. I don’t really get into trying to time it with ta and squiggly lines and other such rubbish. I make decision and go with it. Over time I have built up a pretty good consensus of what is a dip and what is not a dip. It’s not always right but who cares I accumulate. If you constantly second guess your decision ie you think it will go lower then you never will buy.


Look at how long it was in that dip channel at that level. When I look at my avg price on my dca accounting it’s was

2022
Aug 22k
Sep 19.3k
Oct 18.9k
Nov 17.4k
Dec 16.5k

Now when I compare this is to last two months

2023
Jul 30.3k
Aug 26.8k
Sep(mtd) 25.2k

This enough data for me to say they are similar and there is a good chance we are in another great buying opportunity. Time will tell if Oct goes lower or parity(buy more dips + dca) or up(dca)

I think JJG said this somewhere I make more money when the price goes up, so like this I’m not wishing for the price to go down but if it does I’m prepared for it. I can buy the dip and hodl


The problem and I also had overcome this same problem is that I needed a push in the direction to decide what was a dip and what wasn’t a dip to make a call on whether to buy extra on top of my dca with a fairly good conviction when making the decision to. It’s so easy to fall into the trap of it might go lower and not buying extra and it goes up. Another trap is your dip allocation, I allocate per dip, have it set at 33% of reserve this amount is somewhat arbitrary depending on my conviction of the dip and what my data is guiding me to do. I also find I can replenish the 66% before I need it again.