Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 467. (Read 123883 times)

This is really good advice and similar to my journey, yr2 dca was 1.5 times yr1, and every year it increased. It takes a bit of getting used too and when extra money appears you can consider your dca as a place to park it. The main point tho is get going 

Investing without a plan is like walking without a goal, before starting of course we already know where to go and what strategy is suitable for you to invest in bitcoin [DCA, lump sump or you have a different way] What you already know is the DCA strategy here I have discussed a lot and I have learned a lot by reading from several people, especially JJG.

While investing in Bitcoin there is nothing bad as long as you don't sell it, but the problem is your consistency in inputting dollars into BTC, sometimes this is more difficult, including clashing with several other needs, so this
will give you a slight obstacle in investing in BTC.

Save bitcoin for the next 10 years by means of DCA accumulation I think it would be better.
Let's say you put in $25 for the next two years then increase it again to $50 and so on until you have the financial ability to put in even more, don't think about price movements then you go through the halving which will come in 2024 and you will Past the halving in 2028 I think you will have more Bitcoin in your portfolio.

While thinking about this method, I will try to continue without looking at other views.

I feel pity for anyone that jump into the Bitcoin market without a plan, you'll likely run into problems quickly. It's not a good idea to start investing in Bitcoin without knowing a lot about it and figuring out a strategy that suits you. Investing in Bitcoin isn't like being john wick you're not invincible. If you make bad choices and don't have a good investment plan, you'll end up losing your money bit by bit, and before you know it, you could lose everything.


Got into Bitcoin in 2021, DCAing to this day. I know the benefit of holding. A way that I flip my mind on dips is by looking at them as better buying opportunities. It improved the way I looked at things. So, then I win either way! But also, I focus on my long term, I know I want to accumulate X amount of bitcoin in the future I’ll make sure I make the right choices. People just want the benefits in short term, but things doesn't get grown in short time, it needs time and nurture to grow.

We have the bitcoin halving to look forward to! It is always sure to skyrocket Bitcoin's price. It's up to anyone who wants to sell. I'll be on my chair watching the market while others sell. All I know my Bitcoin is a great long term hold for my future!

Well that's right guys, maybe there are some players who come without having any strategy and they might just see what other people have managed to get (big profits), I think that can really encourage them to enter this investment world, especially in bitcoin. But well I say maybe they will just throw money away if they come without bringing any fishing gear, I mean it's pretty stupid if you come with strong determination but not based on knowledge, while any risk can really happen to them (big losses). If you come in a hurry then I'm sure you're probably too focused on making a profit that you're outpacing everyone else. Well of course there are no quick results for anything, I understand that it is indeed the goal of everyone who comes to profit with their respective targets, but it is wrong if you invest with the aim of wanting to quickly profit or even get rich quickly, there will always be a struggle and process first, you want sweet results? that means you have to be able to go through a fairly bitter process here. Don't let you or anyone have that mindset because investing in bitcoin does not give a 100% guarantee, especially quick profits. but I say that bitcoin has given you the opportunity to achieve a brighter future by starting investing from now on even with the smallest amount you can set aside from the rest of your needs.

So if you believe in how high bitcoin is in the future then from now on you can start with the amount you can afford even if it's with a small amount but it doesn't matter as long as you can do it consistently. Well right guys what you have done this will be very useful for your future, you choose to invest long-term and indeed that is more appropriate to get significant profits in the future. That's right, if you don't have a large capital then you can start from what you can afford, it's better to start now even if it's small than nothing or you wait to collect your money first and then allocate all that money to bitcoin, while on the other hand you also have personal needs that are very important to stay alive. So I think that option is not too appropriate to choose, because if you have to first collect money, first it will waste a lot of time and second maybe after the money is collected it cannot be guaranteed that you will get a good price to buy bitcoin, it could be that the price movement is already above and that means you are behind. With DCA everything looks simple especially if your goal is for the long term, but well you have to stay consistent over time.

Yeah, I can not resist myself from imagining someone throwing a punch at their computer screen because their order didn't fill by just a few cents. It feels like being at an auction and losing the bid to a guy for one dollar! Some people try to outsmart BTC and end up losing both sides. You can only hope your prediction is right, but there is no guarantee it will be.

You are right about the danger of overtrading. One of the classic errors that many investors have made till now is trading without a plan and getting carried away by emotions. DCA and SIP might be boring, but they get to the finish line without any drama, and I think we all like that—less drama and more bitcoins.

That sounds good because as long as you are comfortable with setting your orders and then becoming somewhat emotionally neutral regarind whether or not they fill, then it seems that you are likely to be on the right track.

I mostly ONLY become upset if I have an order outstanding and the price moves within a few dollars (and sometimes within a few cents of filling it, and then it does not fill.. otherwise, I attempt to set my orders in such ways that I am mostly emotionally neutral about them filling or not..

Otherwise, I stand by my earlier points, that our getting all smart about setting our orders is likely more of a luxury of having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC - and the overwhelming population are either low coiners and/or no coiner and it takes a while to get to a status of having a decently sufficiently sized BTC stash in which you are more happy for the BTC price to go up rather than down, and sure maybe there are a lot of guys (and gal) in this forum who have been stacking sats for a while, but they still may well even consider themselves to still be low coiners, so they likely have to include some form of DCA and not be fucking around too much about figuring out the price, unless maybe they are doing both.. in terms of supplementing their DCA with buying on dips.

Sure there are also likely quite few people who have some BTC and they think that they have enough, so they end up fucking around with trading it because either they are trying to get more dollars (or BTC) and they do not sufficiently calculate that they are playing with too much of their stash, and sure no problem with playing with small portions of your stash, but there are a decent amount who play with too much because they think that they can outsmart BTC's price direction, and then end up with fewer BTC because of those kinds of games than what they might have been able to get from a more straight forward DCA strategy.


I think that you make a good point ShowOff. 

Funny thing is that BTC price does not tend to go below the 200-week moving average, yet we have been having quite a bit of the BTC price going below the 200-week moving average during this cycle, and especially since June 2022, and right now the 200-week moving average is $27,691, so in going below $25k, the BTC price had dipped nearly 11% below the 200-week moving average.. and so expecing more and more dip seems almost crazy, even though surely it is possible.. but at the same time, prices are pretty damned good already.. but hey, people are going to calculate their odds in ways that they consider reasonable, and I don't consider it very reasonable to be placing very high odds of the BTC price going down when it is already below the 200-week moving average - even though we have experienced quite a bit of that phenomena in the last 15 months or so.


Personally, I have never felt comfortable having such large gaps in my buy locations, and even now, I have way more bitcoin than I need, but still I put buy orders every $500.. and so maybe there is no need to be as extreme as me, and you could do every $1,500.. it just seems too greedy to be staggering the amounts with such large spreads, or just a lack of fear about the BTC price going up when it is already pretty damned low... but again. whatever.. people get these low numbers in their head and they think that they are likely to happen merely because they hear a lot of supposedly "smart people" convincingly making those kinds of proclamations.


You are speaking gobbledy-gook Sayeds56.  You are pointing out a pretty fucking low number and saying that "experts" think that it could happen, but then again it might not.. so it's not like you are even saying anything except for proclaiming that a lot of things can happen... which is true, but still not really saying anything of substance or meaning... but what do bots do, anyhow?  they say dumb and meaningless shit that happens to be a kind of amalgamation of what's being said.


This is a good point Sim_card, and I did not really argue it because I kind of went along with a kind of implied presumption in DVlog's scenario in which the SIP practitioner is going to end up spending as much money on BTC as the DCA person, which is far from clear, and I have frequently argued that the employment of a decently aggressive DCA strategy can end up contributing to a BTC accumulator to engage in higher levels of BTC accumulation because s/he is ongoingly in the game.. so even DCA combined with buying on dips may even potentially end up in more BTC accumulation for the person who is trying to be more active with his/her ongoing BTC accumulation, and the waiting for dips and the longer term strategies like that may well end up with the SIP practitioner to end up being a lot more whimpy than he thinks that he is being.

Frequently I have brought up an example of someone who might have lump sum bought BTC in 2015, and s/he bought 20 BTC for around $6,660 (so the average price per BTC is around $333), as compared with someone who might have ended up buying more regularly and more frequently and spending $100k in order to buy 100 BTC between 2015 and 2019 with an average cost of $1k per BTC

Today.  Which one would you rather be?  The one who has 20 BTC has much greater profits 3x more profits since his cost are only around $333 per BTC as compared to the one with 100 BTC and a cost that is 3x higher per BTC.  Total portfolio value is $520k for the one with 20 BTC and $2.6 million for the one with 100 BTC.


Of course, you likely realize that you need to be careful with these kinds of front-loading strategies in terms of figuring out if you are taking too much risk.. or can you justify the risk, and perhaps in the end,  you end up being correct, but you do have to play various downside scenarios in your head to make sure that you will still be o.k. if any of the downside scenarios end up playing out.


All of these sound like great considerations.

I don’t see what you’re saying as a different perspective, maybe you can help me understand this. My perspective is trying to understand if it’s a dip and should I buy into it. I think for your perspective what is important is who caused the dip and why did it dip. My perspective doesn’t need to consider any of these points because the impact(if any) is baked into the dca avg price trend month on month. As to what’s going to happen in the future if you have some way to show you know what’s going to happen I’m all ears. Tell me when it’s going to go up to an a new ATH please.

Nice strategy you gat @DVlog called SIP. I haven't thought of this method to use in accumulating bitcoin,from what i have noticed with the market,your strategy shows that you will only depend on the dip to use as an advantage to accumulate at a discount price. Personally,this strategy like JJG said will only benefit those that are old in their bitcoin journey, and they have accumulated a significant amount of bitcoin and not for begginers who just started their bitcoin journey. The reason is because you might have reserved some funds targeting and waiting for a dip market and if it doesn't come,after a long time,you might be forced to buy at a price that you never planned for,so that you don't end up missing out. No one can predict when the price will dip and this is one big challenge in your strategy,because you are only doin DCA partially during the DIP. I don't also think that your strategy will accumulate more bitcoin than someone who does DCA weekly or monthly in a regular base because he is always buying and increasing to his bitcoin portfolio.

 I am using DCA method because i just started my bitcoin journey and it is not up to two years,and when there is an opportunity to see a price dip,any extra funds that I have and is not useful, I use it to buy higher amount,let me say like 4X my DCA price. What i did recently, was to meet my Boss at work to give me 40% of my salary,which he gave me and i used it to buy at this dip to add to my investment portfolio. This will help me incase, the 25k+ price is the lowest that we will see before the bull run.  I have also spoken to my Boss that i have a project that am working on that will need me to come meet him for 40% percentage three months advance payment,if the current funds on me exhaust. I told him all these, so that if the market goes dipper than this to 20k level,i can go and collect the money from my Boss and invest in bitcoin to take advantage of the dip, because it is better to invest in bitcoin at a discount price than leave for fiat money with your company and get paid monthly with the high rate of inflation in my country.

Then when the market pumps back i continue with my DCA weekly or monthly method, this is my strategy to accumulate more bitcoin. Why i don't like to depend on the dip to buy is because inflation depreciates fiat currency and there might be some unforeseen challenges that are very important that might come and consume that funds that you are piling up to use for buying bitcoin at the dip that no one know the time it will come. Although every investor with their own strategy based on their cash inflow and for how long that they started accumulating bitcoin.

Bitcoin is highly volatile but i still think there is no wrong moment at which you can accumulate Bitcoin, at this current situation even accumulating Bitcoin at a price of $37k is not a bad Idea as long it is for long term holding.
And how sure can you also be, that there will be more dip?
The price of Bitcoin is not controlled by anyone but the only main factors which can affect the price of Bitcoin is the Demand and Suplly so even if any company wants to accumulate it wouldn't stop you from buying now because you never can tell when the bull run will start.

This is exactly my views and I have stated same here. Glad to see you put it in another perspective and with a reference. I have always known that when the consolidation lingers, there are higher chances of sharp moves in the opposite direction to the intended real direction. The market makers do this for two reasons: to seek for liquidity( such as hunting for the stop loss of those who would have entered the market with their protective stops below the range) and to create fear and panic (this is where weak hands sell while strong hands buy more). This pattern is consistent across all tradable asset classes.

Your analysis is good I must admit, however, I want you to look at it from another perspective. You will agree with me that there was no major news/event from 2022 till date that market will respond vigorously to. This a lone is an indication that price movement from next year will be totally different from that of last year till now because we are expecting major news/events next year. If this is correct, do you think the move will just happen without some market manipulations? The big guys will most likely want to buy very cheap; they have different mechanisms through which they achieve this. Buying at the present price level is good and very encouraging but that does not eliminate the possibility of further downside. I am not actually perturbed by further dip because I follow my DCA religiously.

That's right, Bitcoin has a history of surprising market participants with unexpected moves and what is clear right now is that Bitcoin is all the rage now, Well, now How do we put yourself in the best position to trade and invest in Bitcoin in moments like these meaning there are many trading strategies that can be applied, whether you want to trade the DCA model, the instinct model, or technical analysis and try and gauge the Bitcoin market sentiment and take advantage of this for sure.

Of course we have to have extra money again and  next to go to the exchange, make a local money deposit, money that will be used to buy Bitcoin otherwise moments like this will just pass by.

Your approach to investing in Bitcoin is a prudent one and aligns with the long-term financial planning and risk management. Although many market experts are anticipating a major dip in Bitcoin's price, dropping to price to $20,000 or even below, based on their fundamental and technical analysis, but it is important to recognize that such forecasts are not certain. Bitcoin has history of surprising market participants with unexpected movements. However, if such a scenario unfolds, it would be wise to capitalize on this potentially lucrative moment.

Manipulation will always be there because in the end some of those with large funds will want something cheaper in the purchase but in this case we don't need to bother thinking I think because we also only need to focus on what we want to aim for and the pattern we always do in the end.
Apart from the many manipulations that occur we just have to follow the right momentum in purchasing because we have our own strategy for that, so that when those who have a lot of money try to manipulate (although this has little impact on bitcoin) but we also need to utilize momentum according to the buying strategy we have.

If you're already buying in the $25k area, that's obviously a good deal. You don't need to buy in the same area if you believe the price can still fall, and the concept of dips and DCA requires you to buy lower than that.


Of course, you can change your purchasing plan and adapt it to market conditions.
If $22k seems like a reasonable buy for your entire budget, then there's no need to wait in the $21k area. But all decisions are yours, so I have no right to give you financial advice, I mean 10% of which may be inaccurate.

Already brought around $25k, so what are the points of buying again if I am only buying the dip? I put in an advanced order because sometimes the price hits my expected level and doesn't stay there for long. So I put my buy order around $20,000, but that doesn't mean I will wait for $20,000 to hit. I think I will probably fill my order manually if BTC goes around $21,000. I often use this method to fill my order.

I'm a few months into my initial BTC accumulation journey but I'm still persevering in this way.

I do not intend for 1 or 2 years but want to be longer at least 5 years and above so that the results are greater in the accumulation, maybe my initial journey is in the range of $15 and $25 every week but over time it will definitely increase and the level of DCA size per week will increase even more if I get some other sources of income, this is being tried and learned to increase the income in order to grow a larger DCA portfolio.

I will do a lum sump when..... Getting a bonus from work, being able to cover the cost of necessities from the month's salary and not disturbing the emergency fund, I will do lum sump that way.

But now I will not force it, I will continue to persevere in the DCA strategy and this is probably the most practical that has been used by many people like us. So continue with the DCA strategy, there are other strategies that I will consider when I have more money.

If you place an order in the $20k area now, then that means you are really expecting a big drop. Of course this may happen, but; buying with this scenario does not seem to have a high percentage of success. I never meant to discourage you from waiting long for a downturn, but a downturn that big requires a lot of FUD as well. I don't even think you need to place an order at $20k right now, that seems wasteful to me.

Just buy it now with the same scenario. This means you buy in at $25k with half your budget now and the other half in hand. You could certainly place an order at $20k after buying at $25k with half the first budget, that seems better to consider instead of waiting for something uncertain. At least you can benefit if the price never drops below $24k, so you already have bitcoin from half your budget.

In this case I think it depends on how you are able to do consistency in doing DCA regardless of a week, 2 weeks or once a month I think it doesn't matter and it's not how much money you have but how your strategy is in managing so that the money you budget for DCA does not interfere with other needs and you are able to do it consistently.

Buying more in what context are you saying? When you say buying more in one moment it can disrupt the consistency of your DCA which in turn is a setback for the DCA that you have been doing for some time because of the aggressiveness made in one moment.

I tried to put half of my order in advance and keep half in hand in case it dips down more i will have some left in my hand to lower my average. My order is around the 20k level and if the price crash further down i will not buy any more until it touches 15k which won't happens i think. Actually, it doesn't matter what i think i just made some planning for my investment strategies and won't change it until there is some unusual scenario occurs.

You are the one employing the SIP and trying to figure out whether there is a dip or not..   My way of doing things is pretty damned dip neutral, at least in the sense that I had already set up my orders down to $13k around last November, and just added to them (on the way up) when the BTC price went up and made some decent adjustments to the size of the orders in June 2023 due to extra money that I had come across (accidentally  or whatever).  You are the one trying to figure out a dip (and I have no problems with that), not me...


Well, if you think that you got it figured out, then fine.. good luck with that... and if you think that you got it in the bag, then we just have to wait to see how it plays out.. and I suppose ONLY you are going to know the extent to which your orders end up getting filled, unless you want to disclose the various price points that you have your buy orders or do you employ your BTC buys manually rather than setting them in advance?


There's always manipulation, but the manipulation is not always down, and sometimes even the manipulators end up getting reckt, so they may well be playing a dangerous game if that is what they are doing... but hey I hardly give any shits.. if the BTC price goes down, then I buy every $500 down to $13k, and if the BTC price starts to get near $20k, I might have to consider adjusting my BTC buy orders between $13k and $20k.. otherwise I am not trying to strategize dips, even though I know a lot of guys are following this thread are engaged in such attempts, so there is nothing wrong with doing that and talking about it because it is surely a central aspect to this thread's topic..

....but it is not going to do you a whole hell of a lot of good to ask me regarding what I think beyond some of my earlier assertions about where I consider there to be support points, and i am not even changing much if any of my BTC buy orders based on where I consider those support points to be, except like I said, I might start to reconsider the size and the placement of my BTC buy orders between $13k and $20k if the BTC price starts to get close to $20k and it appears that it might end up breaking DOWNity through support.. and surely I hope none of that happens, but I have buy orders currently in place to account for that..and a kind of tentative plan in case it ends up happening.. but I am not going to cross the bridge or attempt to cross the bridge until we get there (if we get there?).