Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 485. (Read 123049 times)

I doubt that is true, and sure the topic of this thread is bitcoin.. but also people do use the term diversification in ways in which they try to fit their shitcoin gambling practices into that, and also they try to presume DCA works equally well for all assets, but it does not.

In order for DCA to work over the long term, the asset has to generally be going up in the long run, even if it is greatly volatile and even if it has extended periods of a DOWNity trajectory or just getting stuck in DOWN-ward price points.

A similar problem is true with whether buying on the dip will actually work or not, and buying on the dip and keeping on buying on the dip works so long as the asset stops dipping at some point prior to your getting liquidated or prior to your ability to NO LONGER be able to HODL.

We cannot necessarily have a strong of a conviction regarding shitcoins whether they will continue to go up or whether we might be able to get out of them during a period in which our holdings are in profits.  There also is no guarantee for bitcoin, but if any of us attempt to figure out what bitcoin is as compared to shitcoins, then we likely come to an understanding that bitcoin has much stronger fundamentals that contribute towards its ultimately having an upward price trajectory, which means that it has decently large chances to recover from any of its dips, even the severe ones and even if they last a long time, and even at the same time, there are not any guarantees, even though bitcoin does have a lot of strengths in terms of the design and functioning of its fundamentals and the incentives around it being difficult to sustain attacks..


Good starting point, but there is also cashflow that could come from earning wages, or earning dividends, or having some kind of asset that you are able to shave off portions from time to time and such asset is sufficiently liquid.  If you have enough of the assets, and they are appreciating in value, then you can figure rates of shaving them off or which ones to shave off..


There is a dynamic that sometimes exists with people who run out of liquid assets, and they might be considered property rich and cash poor.  It is not necessarily a good place to be, even though they might have options that include leveraging their property.. but still such a practice could end up disastrous if they do not have a sufficient cashflow.

This is the right conclusion of this matter. Discussing other areas of investment here is totally irrelevant and the energy and time spent doing that is akin to a waste because we are entire here for Bitcoin. How come it took me this long to realize this conclusion! 

These are the whales... the people that saw the future early. Inasmuch as this is so motivating, it makes me feel I have wasted a lot of opportunities not buying enough when I first heard about Bitcoin. Imagine I had started buying when I was in high school and had access to free money! That would have saved me the stress of working for somebody which is tiring. Then Bitcoin was even cheap and affordable for a student from a low income family. Well, it is not yet late... the future is truly bright. 

We have always preferred Bitcoin as a digital asset because it is an asset that a person has as a permanent asset. Investing in any other currency in the crypto world except Bitcoin may bring profit for a short period of time, but if its value goes down later, then we know that currency never grows again. But if we invest in Bitcoin then of course it will rally again and profit again in any situation. As we all know it doesn't take long to get rich if the money is gambled away as a temporary asset, so it is better to hold Bitcoin as a permanent asset. If you have a small amount of fractional bitcoins I would argue that it is most valuable to you because sheetcoins often turn out to be scams. So I think to be successful in future and to be a good trader it must be wise to invest in Bitcoin and Bitcoin is a valuable asset of a person's future.

Every human being needs sustainable wealth. If a person has fixed assets then he will be financially independent as long as he lives. If we talk about the digital world then there is no alternative to Bitcoin as a fixed asset. In any other investment out of Bitcoin you may get temporary profit but it is never permanent. At any time your market position can get down.

All other coins except Bitcoin are gambling to me which can turn from rich to beggar at any time. There is no way to do anything in life with those temporary possessions.

I personally believe that $200 worth of bitcoins is more valuable to me than having $2000 worth of shitcoins. Because shitcoins will disappear one day but bitcoins will be my wealth. As long as I have bitcoins I am valuable. So there is definitely no alternative to holding bitcoins to establish oneself as valuable.

That's because newbies or even the one having some knolwedge of crypto sphere like what is halving and how it will make the future of BTC a good one. But still they do not try to enter market. I think they just doubt the theory of Halving and that it will increase the BTC price. but still, i think the best practise for them or for us is to at least invest some of our money that we do not afraid to lose because if we have a money that we do not afraid to lose and still keeping that money in fiat or local currency and decided to speculate the market only for taking the idea like wheater the market will go up after halving or not. Because they mostly think that if the price go up then they will take entry which is the 2nd big mistake first one is not taking small entries now.

I am not saying that anyone should take entry right now after reading my reply all i am saying if someone have some free money although there is not a single country whose citizens will have free money because money do have value all i am saying is use only that money that could not affect your life if you ever lost it.

This is what I want to say to everyone, if someone wants to contribute to the popularity of bitcoin happening faster. I mean, instead we find ways or solutions to spread bitcoin on social media or do big things to make bitcoin popular. What we need to do is share bitcoins with our loved ones, the closest people around us. If we all do that simple thing, I believe bitcoin will become more popular than we can imagine. Don't think we have to do something monumental and big to be effective, let's do things that are simple and within our capabilities.


I know about bitcoin and participate in bitcoin investment because I want to make money, I want to make profit. But when I started to dig deeper into bitcoin, I also realized that the features like decentralization, privacy, and full control of assets that bitcoin offers are just what I need. It can be said that people will care about profit then they will care about bitcoin, but then they will also love bitcoin in different ways knowing that bitcoin is more than just an investment.

Bitcoin should be given priority in our investment goal and higher percentage should be allocated to Bitcoin,  the best possible position is to also have a limit diversification in investment even though you have large capital,  let say since bitcoin is the new digital gold that has replaced gold as the most sort after investment within the short period of Bitcoin existence compared to gold which have been around for several decades and ages,  but Bitcoin since 2009 till date have played the role of the best alternative to traditional forms of investment.
So for me when it comes to investment,  I try as much as possible not to get overly involved in one direction I diversify my portfolio but not with multiple portfolios but just a single which is Bitcoin + one other asset such as gold and real estate

There is no point that might be convincing to talk about diversification for anything else because here we only believe in BTC and nothing else, so our unanimous decision is only for BITCOIN. But know we're in the middle of Q3 where we've done a lot of buying periods and I hope you guys don't get tired of applying DCA throughout your target stages.

There is a good bit of blurb out of this article to add strong leverage for someone to hold BTC long term through DCA.
https://dailyhodl.com/2023/08/12/microstrategy-marks-three-years-of-holding-bitcoin-with-4530000000-in-btc-and-company-stock-thats-up-210/

He also confused me because I was talking about non-bitcoin related assets, and I also emphasized that investing in shitcoins does not diversify in the previous comment . That's not even called investing, it's gambling when we talk about shitcoins.

But I really like his point about diversification. If someone doesn't have a lot of money and diversification really only dilutes their investment. Instead, they should research carefully and focus on only one asset. From there can bring the maximum profit if they choose the right assets to invest.

You are correct sir and there is no doubt about it because the number of years that gold has existed,assuming bitcoin has existed with the same number years like gold, bitcoin would have been very expensive and the people that are bitcoin holders will the wealthiest people in the world because of the high volatile nature of bitcoin. Gold has its value no doubt but it can't be compared to bitcoin because bitcoin halving makes the difference in both commodities. The halving makes the number of bitcoin to be mined to reduce in quantity gradually which with time the demand of bitcoin will be higher than the supply. Another thing is that only the rich can buy gold because it is expensive but bitcoin can be bought by everyone both the rich and the poor because one can buy in any fraction base on your income as long as you have made up your mind. All these shows that bitcoin in value will do better than gold in whatever way you present it because it is not how long that something has been existing but the nature of that thing is what matters with demand and supply.

The is all I am saying. Many of them may not be buying Bitcoin at the moment but just knowing about Bitcoin is good for the future. I actually know a handful of them who do but then, they are not whales and are low income earner like me. I have Bitcoin but the quantity is insignificant when it comes to moving the price.

It seems that the strength of my response had to do with how your post was ambiguous regarding what you had meant about diversification, and why anyone would be choosing to do it or should be choosing to do it.

You can choose to diversify into anything you want, and at any point in your investment journey, and part of my point also had to do with the lack of value that comes from any kind of belief that you need to diversify for the mere sake of it, and most likely the value of diversification comes as your investment portfolio grows - but still there can be inclinations to diversify for the mere sake of it and under the mere belief that value comes from that, which seems to have had been how you were framing the diversification idea.  In that regard, my previous points seem to already speak for themselves.



There is no reason to be secret about it, even though the discussion of it here is deviating from the topic of this thread....

And, you also still don't seem to be getting the point that buying shitcoins is likely NOT diversifying in any kind of correct definition of what you may well be wanting to achieve from diversification, which is non-correlation.. which I have also sufficiently touched upon that, too.


To me, even from that comment, it still sounds like you don't really have a good grasp on when to diversify or even how to diversify, so there is nothing wrong with thinking about whether you should do it or how you should do it, and you likely can do that without pumping the idea that it is good to diversify for the mere sake of it blah blah blah.. which hardly makes any sense on its own.

I am not purposefully trying to give you a hard time, but maybe if you give some kind of an example that would go into some description of how many kinds of investments that the person has, and try to stay focused on bitcoin, so if you might say that a person has an annual income of $24k, and over the past 9 years (if we use your forum registration date late 2014), he has been building his investment portfolio, but surely he made some mistakes along the way - yet at this time he has about $100k, invested^.** , and maybe we can say that the various expenses, allow for around $400 per month to be invested in  
 to bitcoin or anything else.  The example that I am currently describing may well be worthy of concerns of diversification, because the size of the investment portfolio is already reaching more than 4x of the size of the annual income, but if someone is less than the size of 1 year's annual income, there may well be less importance in diversifying (for the mere sake of it).


**Note that I am partially using the DCA chart that shows if someone has been into BTC for 9 years, and merely invested $10 per week, he would have invested $4,700 into BTC and right now he would have had about 4 BTC .. but if our hypothetical person screwed up a lot including getting caught up into shitcoins and/or failing/refusing to stack sats and/or failing/refusing to mostly HODL rather than fucking around with trading, then sure, maybe this person will not even have had been able to keep up with even a very small regular investment into bitcoin.

So you might well be able to describe what the current allocations are since we would have most of the other relevant details in regards to how much is the income.  Maybe the main categories in terms of relevance to this thread would be bitcoin, cash, other assets, and shitcoins.  What would be the percentages of each of those, and why diversify?  You mentioned property and gold, but there is also equities, other commodities and perhaps some business investments.   Some kinds of investments are more liquid than others, so there are questions regarding how to value these assets in terms of your quasi-liquid investment portfolio assets and/or questions regarding whether to just mostly let them ride if they already exist as investments (or to move them around in a reallocation way) or to mostly just increase allocations (or add new assets) by using new income as it comes in.. and of course, these practices don't necessarily need to be all or nothing, even though it would be helpful .

So maybe the punchline ends up being that hypothetical person already has fucked up allocations that might have to do with the way that he had been historically treating his bitcoin, or if there are concerns that the bitcoin allocation is way too much value as compared to the other allocations, then surely I can understand that the remaining allocations might need to be able to stand on their own, because it is good to be as aggressive as you can in regards to bitcoin without necessarily ONLY having your eggs in one basket such as bitcoin, and sure maybe you want to go beyond bitcoin, cash and shitcoins, too...


I already addressed this.


It's talked about?  So fucking what.

Are they buying?  Sure, I can concede that if bitcoin is being talked about then it makes it easier to buy, but I still would not use the term "popular" for the reasons that I already went into, which largely relate to buying.

In part, we might be arguing over semantics.


Don't be trying to suggest that I cannot see the "trending" matters, yet where is the buying?  do you have the metrics to show the buying or increased ownership that is actually based on facts rather than "a lot of people talking about it" but not doing shit.  hahahaha

Where's the beef?


In the end, did anyone buy any BTC?  Yeah, sure it is difficult to measure, but if people were actually buying, it would show in the price.  

And, by the way, I consider that a lot of the hype and discussion about BTC is likely going to contribute towards upwards BTC price movements in the next couple of years, but I doubt that many of these folks are buying right now.. even if they are talking a big game and there is a lot of bitcoin buzz out there.. as you seem to be appreciating (noticing/wanting to see).


That would be great.  I look forward to your thread, and I would like to see an invite, if I don't end up coming across it on my own... or a link here or wherever you believe it would be good to drop such link, once you make the thread or maybe after it has been live for a while.


Sure.  No problem with the conclusion that increased sentiment is likely going to result in increases in buying actions and upwards BTC price pressures, even if we might not see it so much in BTC's price performance data at this particular time.

Maybe you want to suggest that people are buying but, their buying is just not showing in BTC's price data, but the fact that they are buying brought us up from $15,479 in November to our current $29k-ish prices.. perhaps? perhaps? but it is not easy to make a lot of those kinds of claims, and surely if we end up getting price pumps that largely have been falling in 4-year cycles and are likely to continue in 4-year cycles, then it is like that there are more buyers than sellers during the period that the BTC prices are going up...

Trying to narrow down why the BTC price is doing what it is doing, where it has been and what it is going to do are not easy kinds of claims, but surely beyond just having the 4-year cycle ideas that also relates to stock to flow, we also have a kind of dynamics that relates to a confluence of adoption/network effects factors that can be labelled as s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles... and when I am referring to network effects, I am thinking in terms of seven outlined by Trace Mayer in 2014/2015 or so.

Directionally, I am not disagreeing with you, even though I stick by my earlier assertions about what I believe to be a poor and likely misfitting use of the assertion that "bitcoin is becoming more and more popular" blah blah blah... which is maybe asserting the obvious without saying anything, but the crux of my push back on the matter likely has to do with it as being a vague (and perhaps shitty measurement) even though sure, no problem you can talk about it all that you like and try to show that you have measures of it, but when push comes to shove, we likely need harder data than the mere fact that "a lot of people are talking about it."  Who cares?  let them talk, but are they actually doing the more concrete things of taking some kind of an allocation into bitcoin?  and what are their other actions in that direction, setting up accounts, wallets, running a node, sending and receiving transactions,  if they are buying into third-party accounts (to get BTC exposure) in which they don't own the keys then can we see that data "on chain" or are there a lot of third-party custodied accounts that are going to end up either rug pulling again, not having the BTC that they claim or other kinds of shenanigans?


Overall, it tends to be very difficult for normies to take action that results in a kind of incrementalist and ongoing investment into something like BTC, so if they invest into it, then they are expecting results in a relatively short-period of time so that they can feel material benefits from their investment action - which largely likely means that they end up buying too much right at the beginning.. and then failing to consistently keep buying, and sure if they end up getting lucky in regards to the BTC price moving up, then they may well end up selling too much too soon or just failing/refusing to stay convicted into their maintaining their position and perhaps even building on their position - which also might require them to spend some time learning about what they invested in, whether through a forum like this or some other various sources that might have decently good (rather than misleading) information.. and sometimes if they are not really informed about what they bought and they do not engage in critical thinking to be able to sort the good and bad information, then it also might be more difficult for them to both consider bitcoin as a longer term investment of 4-10 years or more and to act upon such longer term conviction.


It seems to me that Wind_FURY's comment had to do with the close relationship between bitcoin and shitcoins, and not bitcoin and real estate.. even though he put that comment right in the context of your talking about real estate as possible way of diversifying or lessening bitcoin exposure or getting another possible cashflow source... but yeah, when I looked at Wind_FURY's comment again it does seem ambiguous regarding what he is referring to, and maybe he should explain himself a wee bit more better.


Well don't say anything then.  


I guess we are on the same page, then.


 Well yeah.. so we do not have fiduciary requirements or other state-imposed requirements either.  In other words, we likely have more flexibility to figure out how to go about our accumulation phases and also our maintenance stages, and there may well be points in which diversification makes sense depending on what we are wanting to achieve and if we are both designing and carrying out our strategies in ways that work towards accomplishing what we are wanting to achieve.


This is bordering upon making sense because sure volatility to the upside (or number go up) is beneficial, and sure the ups and downs of the price can help in terms of being able to buy dips at various points in time in which cash is still coming in, and there can be some advantages to saving up and buying on dips to the extent that DCA is not completely employed.. but probably even DCA can be advantaged from volatility - at least in bitcoin's history since there have been long and drawn out periods of down and then explosive steps upwards in the BTC price and overall the trend has been up, even if normies might end up getting reckt as fuck if they try to play the volatility to their advantage and it does not work.. one of the ongoing risks of buying on dips in terms of making sure that buying is not delayed too much that it causes panic if the BTC price does not dip enough for the buys to happen how the normie BTC accumulator (you refer to as pleb) expected it to take place.


I was making some examples in order to flesh out possible scenarios that might be considered, but you seem to want to refuse to engage with actual (or hypothetical) facts that involve details to better help to understand what is being weighed and perhaps various ways that any normie/pleb might consider going forward.


That choice has not tended to work out very well for those gold holders in the past 10-20 years, and gold has barely kept up with inflation (at least in comparison to the dollar), and sure likely other countries gold has performed better in regard to the other various local currencies.

And then in regards to bitcoin, I doubt that gold is going to fare very well in the future, just like it has not fared very well relative to bitcoin in the past 10 years or so (and maybe it is not fair to go completely back to the very beginning of bitcoin, so we could cut out the first 3-4 years of bitcoin's price history and start from around 2013 - even if we start at top of BTC's price performance in 2013 (around $1,163) bitcoin has still greatly out-performed gold in that period, which seems quite likely to continue into the future, even if there are not any guarantees.. but surely gold does not seem to be a place to be putting much if any value.. especially if you know about bitcoin, and sure, if you want to put 10% of the value of your bitcoin holdings into gold, then even though that seems too much, it is not necessarily going to kill you, even though that gold portion of your investment portfolio does not seem to have good chances of doing very well, relative to bitcoin.

Well that's right, of course everyone has their own way and also they have the freedom to choose about what is best for them and which one they can trust. Knowledge is what will always underpin every decision they make. About Bitcoin and gold, although Bitcoin has become more recognized in the last few years, but I would say that it cannot be denied that not everyone knows about Bitcoin, there are still many who do not have a deep understanding of the concept of Bitcoin and how it can provide benefits in various ways to society so that it can be made the best choice. So far as we know gold is a high-value investment for most people, when someone has a lot of money from selling land then most of them will turn it into gold. In the context of the above discussion, it seems to me that knowledge of something and its understanding can greatly influence some of the choices that a person thinks are best for him or her and make sense. I think this is enough to compare, but in the end over time I am very confident that Bitcoin is the best alternative that most people will choose.

I don't know what to say to that in the context of my post. You're taking it out of context. Haha.


Oh gawd.. the more you explain, the worse it gets... even though I do like that you are using something like $10k as a kind of example of how much value that a pleb might have to work with,

but I probably would like it even better if you describe income too.. because a normie/pleb might have $10k at one snap shot in time, and maybe your thinking about it as a snapshot value gets you to try to figure out whether to use all of it to buy bitcoin right now, or what are the various bitcoin price dipping points that you would want to deploy such cash (presuming that it is all available right now)..

so if we are assuming no other investments, and we are presuming that the money is completely available for bitcoin, we still might need to figure out some aspect of what is the anticipated cashflow in the next 6 months?  and even that it is important to know what is the annual income?  Is it $10k or is it $20k or is it $30k?  or some other amount?

At some point, the amount invested may well justify some needs to start to diversify into other investments, even though the greedy lil bastard pleb is focusing on "getting rich quick" right?

Anyhow, is any more money coming in that might be available for bitcoin, or maybe you are presuming that the income stream for this particular pleb/normie is irrelevant because that income stream merely goes towards living expenses and the normie/pleb is just going to otherwise be living his life in the normie/pleb ways because he has already decided that he was ONLY going to be allocating $10k to bitcoin... and yeah a bit vague, but still I can somewhat work with you on it, including our agreement that it is just a matter of starting out with bitcoin, and then figuring out at what point the investment into bitcoin might start to reach a value in which some diversification might start to be justified, and if the $10k invested into bitcoin starts to grow, and maybe does a 3x (which would be $90k per BTC) or maybe a 10x (which would be $300k per BTC), then there might be some point that the person might want to start to diversify, which may or may not mean that selling coins would be the best option, but it might just mean that new cash is used to invest into other things other than bitcoin, since the bitcoin stash seems to be doing sufficiently well, even if maybe overall it is continuing to ongoingly fluctuate in value quite a bit.