Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 482. (Read 123809 times)

TBH, I did not realize DCA have types. Because I have been advice by legendary members that we should do DCA to get more Coins. But I never heard about types of DCA. And after reading these, I can say, each person can come up with their own DCA strategy which might suits them best. Like if to some person this DCA deviation multiplier is not working fine then they go after the second one. But One thing I did not understand there is what does the meaning of "Base order" here. I hope someone would shed a light on it please.

Means he knows the difference between Trading and Holding Because at first case he is holding which will provide him good results IMO. I think you should ask your friend to share the stats of 2 years trading and Holding in BTC. And you should compare which was profitable. In my thoughts, the holding will be more profitable.

I read your previous discussions and after reading the reply of Furious in previous page, I began to think should we even do DCA in dumps like these because we knew this is the lowest BTC could go. But if we do not know either it's the lowest or not then it is always a good strategy to save some fiat to enter to buy more Satoshi in dips. But still, I think DCA is not something a strict rule which we should follow like we could make decisions of taking entries with the sensitivity of market.

Let's say we have still $1000 in savings even after doing the DCA when the BTC is at $20k and after some bad news or whatever reason BTC again touches $17k or $18k then I think the wise decision would be to put all $1000 into the market instead still doing DCA at that moment.

You are right, for elderly people over 70-80 years old, age can be a big barrier when we recommend bitcoin to them because to be able to profit from bitcoin, they need to hold bitcoin for at least 4 years if the cycle is repeated. So I think when recommending bitcoin to them, we should emphasize that bitcoin investment takes a long time and let them make the best decision for themselves.

It's really a big hurdle, but we shouldn't let that stop us from recommending bitcoin to them. Because maybe their desire is not necessarily profit but most likely, they want to experience new technology like bitcoin. I think at that age, money is no longer a big deal for them.

If my grandfather also likes to invest in bitcoin. I am willing to use my own money for him to experience because at my grandfather's age, money is not the most important thing.

This has been true from the beginning. Buy Bitcoin when its price drops. Bitcoin has been giving us opportunity for a long time. Now it's giving us more opportunity. Let's say the price drops from here, it will recover quickly. But when the price of Bitcoin goes up, we need to see that today is an opportunity so that we don't wish we had bought in time.

Bitcoin will always have price fluctuations. You need to take advantage of these days. Bitcoin is at a good price point for Hodl.

That does not sound like anything that I said.

I did say that the local dip so far is at 20%, yet if you look historically, there are sometimes in which uptrends are happening but dips are greater than 30% and they can sometimes even be greater than 50% or 60% prior to the UP price movements continuing.

Dips can be frequently scary because we do not know whether they are ending the up trend or not, and sometimes we realize that the BTC price is going to stay down for several years rather than recovering and resuming the uptrend.  and other times, it ends up being very profitable to buy the dip, but you cannot know for sure if the dip is ONLY going to be 10% or 20% or even 30% rather than some greater than 30% dip amount.. you can still profit from buying 10% dips.. or even not even waiting for dips and just continuing to ongoingly DCA.. .. set aside a certain amount and buy once a week, for example...

..so while we are in the process of witnessing the BTC price moving UP and DOWN, it is not always clear if DCA would be better or buying on dip would be better or lump sum investing would be better or some combination of those; however, after the price has dipped and recovered and shot up to whatever amount that it ends up going up, then at that point it becomes clear what you should have had done, but it hardly makes any sense to expect that you are going to have hardly any clue about what the BTC price ends up doing, so in that regard, each of us has to figure out for ourselves the various points that we believe that we should be buying BTC and the various points that we want our fiat stash to build up in order to have some dry powder to either buy on dips or just to buy during certain time frames that we find acceptable based on how much cash we might have coming in and how much cash we expect to come in.

If that kind of approach can work for other people, then I think it can work for us too if we implement it well enough even though you say you still have to have sufficient funds to be able to survive in the long term to carry out that approach. And I think it won't be difficult enough for you to do because most people at this point can still survive when they see market conditions start to differ from what they predicted.

As for DCA, you can actually do it without calculating market sentiment, because so far DCA is still good enough to be done by anyone with the ability and courage. Because current market sentiment also changes frequently, you only need to apply the DCA if it's still difficult to measure market sentiment simultaneously with DCA.

Is true because Bitcoin movement is hardly predictable considering the volatility, the price can go up 9% within 24hours and it can also drop the same way within 24hours, so if someone is always waiting for the price to drop more than 20% before getting into the market the investor may be likely to wait for a long period of time if at all it will drop below that, I was actually a victim of always waiting for price to get to a particular position before buying it, I had set my portfolio ready to invest when Bitcoin drops to a certain price but since then it has gone the opposite direction so I regretted that if had known I would have gotten into the market then instead of waiting for extreme dipped, so JayJuanGee just like you said I have actually referred back to some previous years ago and Bitcoin dipping has always maintain the support level between 10% to 20% and after then it bounce back going up.

So I realized as an investor this are the things that should also be considered since Bitcoin movement is hardly predictable one can actually understand the Bitcoin percentage movement that whenever it gets to particular percent it's likely to bounce back up.

I'm new to this way of working and thank you for bringing something new to the table.
But on the other hand by doing a strategy like this even though it is still very good but we also have to be more careful if we have minimal finances.
The possibility that will occur is the difficulty in being consistent if doing DCA with this method because in the end this can be one of the problems that cannot be avoided I think.
Indeed, this can still be done but with some notes such as we have more supplies (in terms of finance) because if not then your DCA will actually make you unable to buy bitcoin again because you run out of money considering this method can be said to be quite aggressive in doing so.

This approach is good as it takes care of both short term and long term target. However, it require someone with deep pocket to carry because I feel it will require some reasonable  funds to sustain. Don't get me wrong, I love the approach and I am happy it is working for you.

What I don't understand is what you mean by DCA sentimental market approach and how you apply that. Is that not the same thing as being speculative if you have to gauge market sentiment? I thought DCA does not factor in market sentiment?

Yeah, you're right the budget also plays a role to either consider it aggressive or not. There are many people who can make $10 to $100 per week for DCA purpose and that's the max they can allocate for the operation. There are surely some people with much higher budget but majority of the investors would be able to allocate $10 to $100 per week without any issues.

That's true the $2 million is going to be a really high level of status for many people, and hardly there will be those people who could accomplish that goal. Well it's also true that $200k as also a high status thing for many members of the forum because most of the users are still unable to have their hands of a whole 1 Bitcoin. I agree that everyone live their life in a different way and each person have different needs, so for someone $200k would be a fortune while for others $2 million is still a low amount.


You're right the ones who are still new in the world of Bitcoin should purchase some amount as soon as they find about it. And, there are many folds who still have nothing in their portfolio and they should also purchase some amount in Bitcoin without caring much about its price. When they get some amount in their portfolio then they should follow the dip accumulation approach as with such approach they will be able to increase their accumulation over time and they will be the ones who may always get Bitcoin at lower rates. Sometimes Bitcoin faces a sudden dip that's totally unexpected like the one it faced few days ago. In those times an investors should accumulate a lot of it by investing the money that he/she is keeping secure for such dips.



Well, that's true that Bitcoin's price may not face a dip every single month and yes there is no guarantee as well that the price with the dip will be cheaper than it's today, but still the one who wants to invest in it would have saved some money for that dip event and may invest it to accumulate some Bitcoin. I also agree that Bitcoin sometimes go way higher in price and the dips won't be good way to accumulate more in those times, but that can happen after a long period of bear market and in starts of the bull market. In regular times Bitcoin won't go much higher in value and a sudden dip could make someone to accumulate a lot of it.

I remember when Bitcoin dipped below $16k and many people were expecting that it would dip even below that price range, but after sometime it slowly starts gaining its price back again. Those kind of dips can happen only after some major events that take place in crypto currency world, and during those times the FTX fraud has caused the price of Bitcoin to go that low in value. We are still prone to such events and maybe in future if something like LUNA crash or FTX crash takes place in the crypto world then the Bitcoin may lose more of its current value because of being impacted by the failure of other coins or exchanges.


You're right that I have been registered on this forum since 2016 and my 7 years are completed. Actually they were completed a few days ago, and thanks a lot for your kind words. You're very right that if I had used DCA for a least 7 years then in this day I would have accumulated 1 whole Bitcoin. But, I didn't used DCA for those years and I regret my decision. I had more than $13 per week, but I didn't thought about DCA in those days, and that's one of the biggest mistakes that I have made. But, I won't follow those ways now and will continue to accumulate more and more bitcoins during the dips. Surely, I will have some good number of bitcoins in my portfolio after a few years, and I would be using DCA plus dip buying techniques in combination. By the way, you have pointed it very right that if someone would have used DCA to $13 per week during those years would have already accumulated a Bitcoin at this date.

You both made a clear point on DCA during the dip and between being a passive/consistent DCA practitioner or a multi market speculator who take advantage of the market conditions to make their oder book, this may go side ways, like in my own situation.


I DCA both upward and downwards that is to say i don't have specific DCA time frame like others have such as waiting for the bull run before DCA but for me i have a bilateral portfolio where my total Bitcoin accumulation percentage is divided into two, were the bigger part belong to my cold wallet for long term base, and the other smaller part is left to take chances in the volatility of the bitcoin market and this way i can use this remaining amount to buy or sell at any time.


This have been my approach since late 2022 and up till now i have not changed in my approach to Bitcoin accumulation vs DCA sentimental market approach which feeds on the volatility of Bitcoin.

I agree with you completely. For a volatile market like Bitcoin, there are high chances that this method may not be as effective as it seem in theory. It might work for a market that is a little stable with dips here and there like we have now. But should there be any major surge in price, one might be left behind or forced to buy at a very high price. Let us not forget too soon that Bitcoin can jump thousands of dollars a day. If that happens, someone waiting to buy the dip might miss the major move.

DCA eliminates the chances of missing out even if there is a spike. DCA also make one have feasible expectations and not be emotionally perturbed when the dip is becoming deeper. In other words, imagine buying the dip only to realise that the supposed dip is not actually the dip as price continue going lower... the chances of panic buying as well as running out of cash (which you captured in your comment) is high.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that it's bad because I know that DCA is something that is indeed one of the strategies that can be done and I still agree that it should be sustainable (consistent) with the previous but the point of adjusting what I mean is that when we do DCA in conditions like this then we also have to have a reserve fund that can be used as an optional to buy dips because this can also be done.

This might sound impulsive and a pretty barbaric strategy, but if we can afford to do something like that then why not.
It is not meant to change the DCA that was done before and the DCA still continues to be done, it's just that we can also take advantage of making some new purchases when a decline like this occurs because this would be a shame to miss.

You cannot really know if it too aggressive unless you know his total budget, but I do believe that the numbers are a bit unrealistic, and part of the reason that we talk about $10 per week or $100 per week is to attempt to be somewhat realistic in terms of what kind of budget that people might have.  There surely are some people with higher budgets, but it is probably better to attempt to be more relatable to more people.

I know that even I talk about fuck you status being around $2 million - even though I know that some forum members might well be able to consider something like $200k as fuck you status.  A $2 million investment portfolio should be able to fairly easily draw $6,666 of passive income per month, and so a $200k would ONLY be able to draw $666 per month, and surely there are forum members who consider that to be a totally acceptable amount for both their expectations of a current life style maintenance and even presuming that such amount be able to account for what they expect to be increases in their cost of living too.


For sure, to some extent, I don't have any problem with BTC accumulation approaches that attempt to time the BTC price in such a way to be able to get better BTC prices - however, I do consider that the very newest people in bitcoin should not be attempting to fuck around with trying to time their buys unless they really already have a pretty solid plan that also involves regularly buying no matter what the BTC price.  Sure, once they get to a certain BTC accumulation level then it will become more practical and reasonable for them to try to time the BTC price dips a bit because they already have BTC in the event that they are not able to buy as much as they would like to buy on the dip, if the BTC price ends up going up, they are likely already sufficiently prepared for the BTC price to go up.. and sure, maybe they will end up kicking themselves for failure/refusal to just buy rather than trying to strategize for the next BTC price dip that may or may not end up happening.


It's not guaranteed that the BTC price will dip every single month and even if the BTC prices does end up dipping, it is not guaranteed that the price will be anywhere even close to cheaper than it is now... we sometimes can get periods in which the BTC price might go up 50% or even more than 100%, but then it only dips like 10% or 20% and then goes on another upwards run.  Sure maybe there will be a BIGGER correction later that goes into the 25% to 50% arena, but there is no way to really rely on such a dip taking place, and we cannot know for sure when such dip is going to happen.

If we look at our November 2022 low of $15,479, then we will see that the BTC price had doubled when it reached $31,818 ion July 13, but then our current low correction has ONLY been around 20% down to the current amount of $25,601 - but even with that, there are no guarantees in regards to whether we are going to get further dips, and the BTC price could end up going up to $35k without much if any further dip.. so in any event there can be a decent number of advantages to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios that you would be willing to accept without causing you to panic if you ended up overly preparing for a situation that did not end up playing out. 

Also, I understand that it could be quite frustrating for anyone who might be relatively new to BTC and if they might ONLY have $10 per week that they are able to invest, so it could take a while for them to build up a side-pot that allows them to keep some money on the side for BTC price dips, and surely it is easier for the BTC investor (even if newbie) who has $100 per week that s/he is able to invest, but even someone with $100 per week might find that their investment amount is too small and it becomes even smaller if they choose to hold some of it on the side in order to wait for dips, so they still might have to decide from their real world budget regarding how much to buy in a regularly scheduled way, versus holding some aside for dips and then if the BTC price has already dipped whether the already dipped price causes them to tweak how much they are deciding to allocate towards DCA versus buying on dips.

Even with you, SamReomo, you have been registered on the forum for long enough (a little more than 7 year anniversary, congrats)  - maybe even similarly to our fearless OP (Wind_FURY).. and accordingly, even a fairly modest DCA approach of $13 per week over the past 7 years would have gotten you to more than 1 BTC by now with a mere investment of $4,748 - yet at the same time, if you figure out what kind of strategies that you have been employing over the past 7 years, have you been able to significantly/materially beat those kinds of returns  in terms of trying to strategize dips.

So yeah, more aggressive like $130 per week may well have ended up getting you to more than 10 BTC of accumulation, but if you were to have had attempted to employ a BTC accumulation strategy that was beyond your "free cashflow" then you may well have had ended up recking your self. . because you had over done it in terms of how much was available in your own budget.


Yeah, but it is still not necessary to play around with that - unless you have already been accumulating BTC for a while... so in that sense it is not "needed" to take advantage of dips..


Sure, that is called buying on dips, and surely there is nothing wrong with buying on dips, but you run the risk of both running out of money if you keep buying more and more and the BTC price keeps dipping, so as long as you have yourself covered to include preparations for dips that might not happen, then no problem, keep buying on dips and hope that your last reserve is not met too soon.  Another problem is that if you are waiting for dips and holding money in reserves that you want to use to buy BTC, but you are waiting for your price to hit, and if you have not already bought some and you are just waiting for more dip, then you might end up not buying BTC because you were trying to be more greedy than you needed to be in order to suffiicently profit by just making the BTC buy - even if the BTC price may well end up dipping more after you had already stocked up.

I also think that his description of DCA is correct and somewhat really usable at the same time. The DCA works week during the dips because in those events we get the chance to accumulate more amount of Bitcoin with same fiat value. I also think that his DCA is too aggressive because he's spending a lot of money to buy too many Bitcoin in a short period and which is not going to be a good thing for someone who wants to accumulate a lot of Bitcoin. I also think that DCA isn't always needed for accumulation of Bitcoin because sometimes we may buy Bitcoin at higher price value and that's why it's better to divide the amount you have and invest those divided values on times when the price of Bitcoins gets a dip. I know that sounds greedy, but that way you will be able to accumulate a lot more Bitcoin then with the traditional DCA techniques.

If you still want to go with DCA route then I think the best way to allocate the monthly budget for DCA would be to wait for a good dip in price of Bitcoin and continue DCA from the time of the first dip. If you see no dips for a certain amount of time which is unlikely to happen because we all know the volatility of the market and due to which dips can occur at least once in a month. A wise dip purchasing is always needed to accumulate more coins and we can't ignore that fact. The best DCA strategy would be to wait for the DIP and purchase some amount and then wait for another DIP with even more intensity then purchase more coins, I know that won't be called as a true DCA technique but that will help to acquire more Bitcoin for you as an investor. Continue in that way until the process is completed and you have allocated everything that you had kept for DCA purpose. 

I think that your initial description of DCA is correct, and of course, you seem to already recognize that your DCA modifier is not really DCA anymore, but getting into a kind of DCA supplement that may well end up involving a kind of formula for buying on dips.  Those are not bad ideas, but you have to be careful when you continue to add value in terms of making sure that you are not going to run out of money too soon because you were being overly ambitious in terms of buying too many BTC too soon.. but sure the idea is not bad.

Another thing might be to have a certain weekly or monthly budget that would be allocated for DCA, but if you are trying to employ the DCA to happen during the dip of any period that you choose, and if such dip does not happen, then you still end up employing the DCA for that period at the end of the period (after you had given it a chance to see if there might be a dip that allows you to buy a little bit more during the period with the amount of value that you had allocated for that particular DCA buying period).

Your explanation is very accurate and understandable, with the current Bitcoin price movement, nothing is sure for now but one could actually utilize the opportunity because it gives an advantage for people to structure their portfolio in a way that will help them make profit from the dip considering how btc movement is now buying to hold will take a bit time before getting or making profit, so while others waits for the right time to enter the market others sees it as an opportunity to boost their portfolio by scalping the market.

Just like what a friend told me, he said he invested a lot of money on Bitcoin that he plans holding for long and that he structured his portfolio in two ways of investing plan, first one is buy and hold while the other one was for buying and selling, so as Bitcoin price dipps he sees it as an opportunity to trade the market by scalping.

DCA is a good strategy for regular people who aren't pros at investing. It saves a lot of trouble from trying to guess the best times to buy during market ups and downs. It's a way to invest slowly and steadily, which helps stop the urge to make big gains quickly. Professionals or more experienced investors often use DCA when they want to catch price changes. They can automatically make buy and sell orders based on how much the price changes and how much they want to invest. It's like a more advanced version of DCA. For instance, you could set it up so that if the price changes a certain amount, each new investment gets multiplied by 2 or 3 times.

DCA deviation multiplier
DCA #1 = Base Order - 1% = $29,700
DCA #2 = DCA #1 - 1% * 2 = $29,100 (Base order - 3%)
DCA #3 = DCA #2 - 1% * 2 * 2 = $27,900 (Base order - 7%)

DCA order size mulyiplier
DCA #1 = 1,000 USDT = 1,000 USDT
DCA #2 = 1,000 USDT * 2 = 2,000 USDT
DCA #3 = 1,000 USDT * 2 * 2 = 4,000 USDT

I read the whole article and it was super interesting and informative too. The result of that article which I concluded is: Anyone could make transactions, anyone could make blocks, anyone could do mining, blockchain does not care either those transactions or blocks have anything to do with good or bad purpose or use cases. All blockchain's nodes matters is of transactions is invalid then they will not send it to the next 8 peers and if one keep making invalid transactions then that address will be banned automatically to avoid spamming. And same mechanism goes for Blocks. Like people could make only heading or header name for a new block but to proof that either the work has been done or not the Proof of Work (POW) is confirmed by confirming the hash number with special numbers (special numbers that are used in the YT Video included in that article).

If the work is done, then the block is validated by nodes and the data is send to others for validation otherwise if it is invalid then it is not shared in the network. Overall, there is no single entity could judge why the transaction is being made but all that matters here is either the transaction or blocks are validated or following the rules or not if not then they will not be added if yes then they will be added. Please correct me if I took the conclusion wrong here.

I am not sure whether I understand what you are saying Furious 7 - especially since DCE involves ongoing buying at any price, so by definition there wouldn't be any needs to change behaviors merely because of a BTC price dip, and so whatever was the scheduled DCA amount to buy, then that should not change - even though surely anyone exercising consistent DCA by definition, would end up getting more sats for the same number of dollars.

Now if you are doing extra or changing your DCA, then that is not really strict DCA anymore but instead a kind of hybrid that takes advantage of the dip, in the employment of buying on dips practices.


Those sound like the kinds of mistakes that you should be able to learn your way out of, and for sure I understand that they happen because they used to happen with me, and I think that part of the way out of those kinds of mistakes is to create plans that go beyond expectations, and sure you might have to readjust the plans after the BTC price might end up moving close to your limits, so then your expectations would end up changing.

Let's say that you had $1,200 that you had set up for BTC buys, and you set them up as follows:

$27,500 = $400

$26,000 = $400

$23,500 = $200

$22,000 = $200

Those seem to be fairly reasonable placements of orders, even though I probably would spread them out more evenly, and maybe every $500 in equal increments down to $20k or so, and sure that might only leave me with less than $50 per buy order, and even if you go every $1,000, you still run out of money quickly if you ONLY have $1,200 that is available for buying on dips.  Of course, you are going to have cashflow coming in too, so you might be able to add to your buying on dips, but if the dip ends up coming in faster than you expected, then surely, you could end up not having additional money to add to the dip buys.

Maybe you really did not expect any orders below $26k to get filled, so you were not even very serious about those below $26k orders - however, when you saw the BTC price dropping so fast, you started to think that it might be better to pull your $26k buy order because the BTC price drop had been happening in such a ways that seems much more severe than you thought could even be possible... so surely part of your problem may well be that you do not have enough in reserve and you have not structured your buy orders well, and sure you even admit that you may well be trying to be too greedy, which is a kind of sign of gambling and/or being overly invested.. you are likely investing beyond your budget and trying to be overly strategic about your buy orders in such a way that is not even healthy for your own psychology.

You are the ONLY one that can really fix it, and I would suggest that the most logical fix is to either spread out your buy orders more and/or to make them smaller and stop trying to catch the exact bottom because the exact bottom does not likely matter as much as you think it does, even if other people are engaged in those same practices and have those same kinds of gambling style mentalities.


I am not going to deny that sometimes luck does sometimes rescue us from sloppy practices, so for sure, it likely goes without saying that we are both likely to end up making mistakes from time to time and also that the better that we prepare not make mistakes, then we will have systems in place that we are more than willing to live with and to accept.. and also if we have good systems and practices in place, then we are likely in a better position to play around with some other part of our portfolio (and to be sloppy and to even gamble a bit).. and so I would not even proclaim to want to remove anyone from their desires to gamble and to have fun. .but at the same time, we should be attempting to be somewhat purposeful about how large of a position size that we might be putting into any games that we play.

Let's take that same case of the guy with a $1,200 budget for buying on dips, that I described above, and if we already have our system in place, and we think that it is a quite sound system, then if we get an extra $200 that comes into our budget, then we might decide to just fuck around with that $200 because we are already comfortable with our other allocations, but if we realize that our set up is not very good in the first place, we might want to rethink what we have set up, and then to fold the extra $200 into whatever relatively conservative system that we have set up, and not to be playing any games with the new money coming in because we sense that we are not quite in a "game playing" state of affairs until maybe we make sure that we get our buy orders set and situated in better locations and at amounts that are comfortable for us to feel sufficiently prepared.

Yah, you are right though; it really made no much difference buying at $26k to $25.5k, owing to the fact that speculation was even high this month as most people believed that BTC was going to hit $32-$35k this month. I also felt convinced that we could see $32k this month. Like you said, $26k is also a good buy at the dip; perhaps it's a long-term investment and not just a chase for a short-term profit. I bet you are close to having one bitcoin already because 30% is just less than what you already had.


You are right, and I really do agree with you. Although my actions that day were just some kind of reflex action, where I never really gave any deep thought, my mind just said, "Place the order below $26k, and indeed it did work out; perhaps I was just lucky.