Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 484. (Read 136070 times)

I don't want people to experience the panic that I've made before and that's why giving them some advice on what they should do about holding is like a responsibility if you know that they're making a mistake.
But that should stop there because once you already told them your advice, they're on their own already and it's up to them if they're going to follow what you have said or not.

Just let people sell their Bitcoins out of panic. They must regret that they sold Bitcoin too early and only panicked when they saw the price decrease. Now is a good time to continue the DCA strategy because Bitcoin is still not rising too high.

But you have to be careful because from now on, Bitcoin's journey will be more extreme. That will make many people panic again. So prepare yourself mentally for Bitcoin's next move.

For some people who sell their Bitcoin because they panic about the falling price, of course they don't know very well how to make a profit from Bitcoin. By having a good understanding of Bitcoin, of course they will be able to benefit from Bitcoin and of course they have an understanding of how to get it and how to profit from Bitcoin. Yes, the DCA strategy is very good for those who have the desire to be able to collect Bitcoins slowly and of course they do it consistently so they can enjoy the profits from what they do.

I agree with you on this mate, people who sold their Bitcoin because there was a drop in Bitcoin price and they could not get rich within the time frame they gave themselves on Bitcoin will regret their actions now because Bitcoin has increased in price in the past few days. That is why it is always good to have a good understanding of Bitcoin so that you will know that Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme so that whenever you are ready to invest in Bitcoin you will know you are in for a long term hodl before the real profit will come. The knowledge you gain in Bitcoin will guide you to adopt a DCA strategy in accumulating your Bitcoin, and will also protect you from the volatility part of Bitcoin.

We can witness many times in history that bitcoin ends up going into a kind of punishment mode, so those folks trying to trade it or even wait for the dip are continuously waiting, and maybe even those persons who are shorting are continuously getting reckt because they keep betting on BTC to go down and then it continues to go up.. and sure, we don't have any guarantees that bitcoin will continue to go up from here, but it is not unheard of that bitcoin does end up going into punishment mode.


Ultimately the thrust of Ruttoshi's question (or the point that he is making) does seem difficult to answer because he points out that he has a kind of plan to cut back on some of his DCA amount based on the BTC price going up so much in such a short period of time (which may or may not end up being a great idea because we cannot necessarily have high levels of confidence that the BTC price is going to correct back down from here).  And sometimes if someone fairly new to bitcoin is getting into bitcoin, they might well just be better off to just continue buying and trying NOT to predict whether the price is going to go up or down..
 and they may well just be better off continuing to buy more BTC, even if they have to pay more for it now as compared to the last 18 months of relatively discounted prices.  

Maybe the correct answer has to do when they started buying BTC and how much they had been buying... if someone comes into bitcoin and had been buying quite aggressively over the last 18 months maybe they could rest on their laurels (how much they bought already), but Ruttoshi seemed to have been saying that he just started buying at $25k, which might even assume that he has not really been buying for much longer than 6 months.. so yeah, it seems to be unclear if he would have had even been able to accumulate even close to enough BTC in such a short period of time through simple DCA based on cashflow, but if he had some circumstances in which he had reallocated some funds from some other decently sized investment portfolio, then maybe he would be in a better position to cut back some of his DCA amounts.. and yet ultimately there is no real easy answer without really knowing more of the underlying individual factors.


That is a pretty BIG assumption.   There are all kinds of ways that individuals pass through their journey to get to bitcoin, and a decent number of them either have not arrived or do not arrive because they end up getting too distracted and/or sucked into shitcoins.  


I doubt that it is necessary to buy shitcoins.. and probably not a good idea.. and even if it might be an o.k. idea, we are in a bitcoin thread, so we are generally not talking about shitcoins, except maybe to bash them, here and there along the way.


As long as we are talking about bitcoin rather than shitcoins, I agree with you.

But I was sure that nobody buys crypto without having Bitcoin first because if that is so, then I would say it is a big mistake. While seeing the current situation of Bitcoin, we can also think that bull season is coming soon and before it comes, we must be sure that we are already filling our bags with Bitcoin and some potential altcoins. Those people knowns how to hold and wait for the bull season got their rewards which is why we should practice doing this otherwise, regrets it.

I agree with you on this so because having such laying around money to buy Bitcoin with will give us the best chances to take advantage of Bitcoin's short-term price movements in uptrend directions just like in the current Bitcoin market movement behaviour, taking chances to grab some few Bitcoin when the market present us with the discount price is one of the best DCA mechanisms that helped many Bitcoin investors to be able to lay they hands on some Bitcoin within a short period if they do follow the right principles by setting aside a steady cash flow that put them in the position to always take advantage of the Bitcoin market at all time.

The current bitcoin price outcome is not something that is not familiar to us,  and in fact, most of the bitcoin investors who have spent at least a year in the market would already have experienced this and learned how to approach the current bitcoin market value to take the right advantages using their previous plans and engagements.

The rise is always a pretty sight if you have Bitcoin in your portfolio but if you don't have BTC in your portfolio then the rise that occurs will not mean anything to you. Previously we have seen the price of BTC drop quite significantly where the price of btc touched $15k. And what you saw today where bitcoin crossed $30k and reached $35k today.

So in this thread we just buy and hold which is what we have been doing from before. DCA was our choice and we also thank JJG because he is always our mentor in this forum where he always provides sensible advice in discussions in this thread. We will continue to hold and buy with the DCA strategy.

This is one of things I like about Bitcoin it can surprise you overnight just like what the price did this week, this is actually the reason why it is advised to keep accumulating for long time holding instead of chasing the Bitcoin price, so just like you said those short holders who buys and sell immediately after seeing a little move on Bitcoin price, I believe they will seriously be regretting why didn't hold.

So perhaps they have learned there lesson about Bitcoin price movement and is not actually late to change your strategy by holding instead of chasing the price.

Yes, that is what he is telling there. It's interesting but it's true that Bitcoin can make someone obsessed with it. I've seen threads like that here in the forum. It was only a bad thing because it is not different from being addicted on to some other thing/s. This might be one of the disadvantages caused by investing (not only limited to BTC) so we shouldn't worry.

I understand on why people are being greedy with it, it is because the more asset they have the more money they can get once they sell it at its peak price. We should start to set limits. Not only that it can cut the risk but it can also help our mental health stable and free from issues.

That is Bitcoin for you... always pulling surprises. The only people in panic mode are short term traders who would have sold since.

During the time of dip, there are those that bought around $26k - $29k, by now the short term traders would have sold around $30k to $33k and have their money in stable coin. If Bitcoin continues this move, I can only imagine the level of pain they will feel seeing that they sold too early. Whereas those holding for long are happily riding the wave and waiting for the real bull run to start.

No matter how we twist it, long term investment in Bitcoin is the sure way to maximize the opportunities of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has never been correlated with stocks or any other assets, so the extent to which you and/or anyone else believed that bullshit is upon you, and this latest move did not prove anything that was not already (or should have been) more than apparent and clear if you look back at bitcoin's price history.  

So, yeah, a  lot of people like to talk about dumb shit in regards to bitcoin's correlation and/or bitcoin is (was) not performing well enough and a bunch of baloney and sure sometimes they can take clips of time and show proof of their arguments - but the mere fact that they are able to show proof that is convincing still does not mean you should believe it, especially if you have your own eyes, you should be able to spend about 5-10 minutes looking at charts to see that there may well be short term correlation at various periods, but surely hard to argue if looking at the longer period, and yeah, maybe it could take longer than 5-10 minutes to actually better understand some of the underlying reasons why bitcoin is different and what pushes its price such  as 1) the stock to flow model, 2) the 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (in the school of thought of [ur=https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/]trace mayer's seven network effects[/url])

Our most recent price move of around $5k in a day, or even $10k in a month or so, does seem to show what many of us already suspected, even though we can never really know when or how much the UPpity bursts are going to play out.


For sure no one can really tell you the extent to which you should temper your BTC buying in terms of always striving to prepare yourself for BTC price moves of either direction, and you should have some clues regarding how close you might be to your own personal fuck you status and/or how many BTC you have accumulated up until this point in light of your other personal circumstances.  Looking at the BTC price movements remains ONLY one relatively small part of the whole formula regarding what to do, even though so many folks seem to like to place a lot of emphasis on BTC price movements.

So you have to assess where are you at exactly:

BTC Accumulation stage

early, mid  or late


BTC portfolio Maintenance stage

early, mid  or late


BTC liquidation stage

shaving off some here and there, or wanting to get rid of most of it or all of it

Many members here are likely in one of the stages of BTC accumulation.. but surely some of us have progressed into maintenance stage, so surely we are much better off when we are in maintenance stage.. and each of us has to figure out when we get to each of these stages, which will also assist us in terms of figuring out how we might want to manage our bitcoin strategy according to where we are at.

The earliest stages of BTC accumulation likely need to mostly focus on DCA and just buy no matter what.. which might include lump sum buying and even front loading the investment a bit in order to get some skin in the tame, but after you start to develop somewhat of a BTC stash, you can start to attempt to be a bit more selective in your strategy and maybe lower the DCA amount and start to hold some fiat in reserves for buying on dips.

When we get these kinds of big price moves, many of us should likely realize that we are advantaged by having already gotten in, and being in BTC we are kind of resting on our past accumulation and our past aggressiveness in having had accumulated.. so whether you start to hone back on some of your DCA buys is not necessarily easy to answer.. because sometimes momentum like this just keeps going up, so we cannot be sure when it will stop going up and/or how much the correction will be once it stops going up. and so it becomes possible that the BTC price will not correct back down below current prices.. Surely I am not going to claim to know things like that, and some people are more than willing to tell you what they think BTC prices are going to do, yet our own critical thinking skills should help to inform us that there are likely decent odds that they might not be correct in whatever they are saying are the various scenario and sometimes the extent which they put a lot of certainty upon their scenario might cause you to question how they can know with such supposed certainty... is it squiggly lines or what?  

Surely it is true when the price goes up quickly it cannot really sustain itself, but still that does not necessarily mean that it won't continue to go up even further, at least for a while.. remember in April to June 2019, BTC prices went up 3.5x in 3 months, but then ended up correcting back most of that over a month or so. and then resumed up and had a few bounces, before we got to our abnormal March 2020 crash which also just ended up being a kind of fluke.. but we could not really completely know at the time of the March 2020 fluke that it was actually a bit of a fluke.


Of course, you have to decide for yourself what you are going to do, including if you think that there might be some value to lessen your DCA or to just keep your DCA in place.. and so maybe part of the question might be how far along are you in your investment journey. .. remember it frequently will take people close to 10 years to build up to 1 years of their income, that is presuming that they are putting away 10% of their investment income, and generally, you likely need in the range of 20-30 years worth of income to reach entry-level fuck you status.. that is a stage in which you don't have to worry about working anymore and that you can have some assurance that your investments can sustain you.

I cannot exactly tell you at what point that you feel that you need to get with your bitcoin holdings (and surely what else that you have) to suggest that cutting back might be a good idea. and surely we always should have some money (dry powder) available for buying on dips.. so will the BTC price dip or not. and is it worth it to make those kinds of adjustments at this stage.. BTC accumulators are going to decide differently in their attempts to balance these kinds of matters.. and some will end up being more correct than others, but are the correct for a reason or did they just get lucky?  

It is people that don't understand the potential of bitcoin that will think that inesting in bitcoin for a long term is a waste of time. I am having more confident on bitcoin now as I am seeing how the price of bitcoin is increasing within the twinkle of an eye and this makes me to be proud that I took a bold step to start my bitcoin investment when the price was 25k+.

I am coming up with a new strategy that I can use to accumulate bitcoin because my regular DCA method is still what I am using, but is like I might consider to stop and hodli, when the price surges higher than 35k with the 10% that I am using or maybe reduce it. This is my first experience in the market and I am learning a lot from it.

Bitcoin must outperform stock because of its volatine nature and the price of bitcoin will keep pumping till infinity, unlike stock.

Congratulations to those who are still consistent with DCA and see how exciting it will be when our portfolio increases. So when we are consistent we will see temporary results, and honestly this is a matter of pride for ourselves because what we maintain and fight for produces positive results. I believe this price will continue, Blackrock ETF is getting closer. The position where we should be but still realistic.

The question for those who do DCA consistently is whether the current price requires us to wait for a slight correction? Or still buy it at the current highest price? I just want to know how to choose and make the right timing decisions when faced with the Bitcoin bullish phenomenon.
Your suggestions are very valuable because telling each situation will have a positive effect and make me not alone in holding Bitcoin. (where I live, I'm the only one holding Bitcoin).

What a substantial move we have witnessed in Bitcoin price which was worth $5000 in a single trading session . Nobody was expecting such an impressive increase while stocks are falling. Bitcoin has shown its real color after a long time of uncertainty, and I was glad to see that Bitcoin is finally showing its independence from stock markets, and Bitcoin's prior correlation with other risky markets seems unrealistic, as it is hedge against inflation and dependable store of value.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-btc-price-breaks-34000-etf-excitement-grows

Yes, that's correct, I can say with confidence that bitcoin's growth prospects are very high at least now the evidence is visible in the market that Bitcoin has proven that society can reach consensus and the correct course correction has brought a new element to the discussion about money and value and has broken many known return models, changing the way we understand investments and returns and may not be applicable to traditional assets such as stocks or bonds.

I know that people have their differing strategies, yet the general ideas of trying to time the market would be to buy when the price is going down and to sell when it is going up.. .so usually you would not be buying when it is going up unless you were trying to make a lump sum buy in order to front load your buy prior to the price going up (if that's what you think the market is going to do)..

So in that regard, it does not make too much sense to DCA when the market is bullish.. except if you are just assuming that the market is going to keep going up because it is bullish, but that is not necessarily going to always be the case, and surely there are a lof of difficulties to figure out if the market is bullish or bearish.. which is part of the rationale of DCA that does not get too involved in trying to figure out if the market is bearish or bullish but only ends up focusing on whether you have discretionary income or not and then just deciding to buy based on how much of your discretionary income you want to use to buy BTC versus using it for some other purpose, such as consumption, or investing in something else versus saving it for some future purchase.


In markets and in investing, there are no guarantee to make a profit... and surely not even close to 100% guaranteed, even when it comes to an investment as great as bitcoin.  

It seems quite likely that you are quite likely to get yourself and/or someone else into trouble if you think and talk as if there are 100% guarantees in life (especially when dealing with the future).. but hey, whatever, you do you.

Bitcoin is the only currency where you are 100% guaranteed to make a profit whether you invest or hold it. Bitcoin was at $27000 last week as well but in just a few days Bitcoin has surged above $35000. The only ones in this market who bought and held during the dumping period got huge profits in this pumping situation. So if you want to get good profit in future you must buy in DIP market and HOLD for long term and sell when pumping time comes.

Using the DCA method when the market is bullish is certainly a good thing and also buying more when the market is bearish, but in investing in Bitcoin we need a long time to get a profit from the investment we make and we have to be patient with various market conditions. You are right, we must have a steady income so as not to interfere with the investments we make and we also really need a strategy to be able to collect and get profits from the investments we make.

So yep, just in a few short hours we went from the $29ks to the mid $34ks and that can be quite amazing how quickly price changes happen, and yep there were some forum members, even in this here thread, insisting upon good ideas to wait for further dips when we were in the lower $25ks, and even though none of us really can judge for their situation and/or to have enough information regarding if they are sufficiently prepared for UP, these can be fairly painful times for people who are waiting too much and/or who are whimpy in their bitcoin investment in terms of either being no coiners or low coiners, and even some of us who might feel that we had been more aggressive in our bitcoin accumulation, we will sometimes second-guess ourselves and speculate that "I could have gotten more," and sure it may well be true that almost any of us could have gotten more bitcoin when prices were lower, yet the fact of the matter is that we really cannot have high levels of confidence so we should be attempting to be prepared for either BTC price direction and be willing to live with our decision when the price moves against the direction that we thought to be more likely, but if at least we are preparing for either direction, we may well be able to accept that we did our best in our preparations based on the information that we had at the time, rather than looking back and having regrets regarding not getting as many bitcoin as we could have just a week ago when BTC prices were dipping into the $26ks and just around a month ago when we had BTC prices dipping into the $25ks