Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 498. (Read 123020 times)

Thanks for the clarification.. and I doubt that you are completely off topic, especially since you had been saying that your strategy was to attempt to employ DCA in a kind of hybrid way.. which is buying BTC on dips... and you are also striving to mostly buy BTC and to ween yourself from the temptations of selling BTC during your accumulation phase and while you have some BTC accumulation levels in mind that you would like to achieve.

As I had mentioned, getting to 1 BTC over the past 7 years would have taken about $10 per week invested into BTC, and getting to 5 BTC would have therefore needed $50 per week - and so we can ONLY go from where we are at currently, and even in 2016 and many times thereafter, there were a lot of uncertainties in bitcoin, and a lot of folks sold bitcoin at various times that were too many BTC sold and too soon - and furthermore, they likely were both failing to acknowledge and appreciate bitcoin for what it really is and they were valuing their wealth in bitcoin dollars [edited... whoops!] and therefore misguided by needs to "lock-in fiat profits" which comes to bite them in the ass later on when they have way fewer bitcoin than they previously had and what they could have had, and they realize that they might not even be able to get to that previous level of BTC accumulation because they sold too many BTC too soon.

The fact of the matter with any of us is that we can ONLY attempt to figure out our BTC accumulation strategy from right now, and not from what we could have done and/or what we should have done in the past.

We are never going to really know whether we are correct in terms of Bitcoin's long term investment thesis or that it is going to continue to go up in value with the passage of time, but we can continue to attempt to make a bet that bitcoin seems to be amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside, and it might even be the best asymmetric bet to the upside, but it is surely not guaranteed to be.

Perhaps another one of the problems that people have in their investing into bitcoin strategies is that they over invest, and when the BTC price goes shooting up, they get nervous - especially when it comes shooting back down, so likely a more conservative (but still potentially aggressive) DCA strategy can work, and there can be ways to be more aggressive with both buying on dips and also with lump sum investing, while at the same time likely recognizing that it is likely not a good practice to sell with the purpose of buying more BTC at a lower price, and if you do sell BTC make sure that you ONLY sell when the BTC price is going up and that you sell a low enough amount that you are not going to be bothered if the BTC price ever goes down.

Part of the problems that people seem to have when they start to sell BTC on the way up is that they may well have not even accumulated enough BTC to actually be within a status that they really are prepared financially psychologically to sell the BTC that they have sold and to say forget about it, if the price never comes back down below the selling price.  Another thing is that if they knkow tha they are still in BTC accumulation mode then there can be questions regarding continuing to buy when the BTC price is going up or to pause buying in order to buy more when the price is going down or when the BTC price is flat... These are not easy dilemmas to resolve, and each of us has to figure out how to manage our own BTC accumulation strategies so that we are not causing situations in which we are not accumulating enough BTC and/or we have failed to actually sufficiently and adequately think through various upside and downside scenarios in order that we can attempt to follow somewhat of a preplanned strategy that allows us to recognize our goal of stacking sats and just persistently strive to make advancements in that direction, even if we might be making mistakes along the way too.. The longer that we are in bitcoin, then the more likely that many of us are making several mistakes along the way..

Hopefully, this time you are able to stay somewhat steadfast and focused on BTC as the prize and continue to persistently accumulate, even if sometimes the accumulation levels might be low and maybe even sometimes you are not able to accumulate until your cashflow returns to a higher level, and many of us likely face those kinds of problems too.. including that I frequently find myself going to shop (in a variety of different places, different cities and different types of goods (well food is a kind of basic) - and even in different countries), and it is fucking crazy regarding how much people are willing to pay for certain items that are available to them - and sure there can be neighborhood and city variance, but even going to different places it is still surprising to see how assertions of inflation are likely describing abilities to pay that seem like 20% or 50%, perhaps, but there are so many goods and services that seem to solidly increasing in price in the neighborhood of double or more... and even if they don't get you in one way, they get you in another way in terms of various charges for goods and services.. even some of the basics... salaries are not likely keeping up.. and many of us hope that at some point bitcoin will help to save us from some of the outrageousness in terms of prices of goods and services in fiat prices.


Of course, having goals to reach fuck you status can be a real good thing, and it may well be possible for everyone to have that kind of a goal, but we also have to realize aspects of the reality that some folks might have very low levels of discretionary income, so they might not be able to put a lot into BTC, so for those guys they have to continue to realize that even if they do not reach fuck you status with their BTC investment, they are still likely going to be better off in 10 years to 20 years to 30 years.. as long as they continue to accumulate BTC (even if relatively small amounts) and do not get tricked out of their BTC or get tricked out of their BTC accumulation strategies with false presumptions that they will be able to accumulate BTC through selling BTC. which seems like it makes sense in theory.. but like you said Frankolala, attempting to accumulate BTC by selling BTC is very BIG gambling strategy without very good odds of actually beating a strategy that mostly focuses on BTC accumulation through various forms of buying it regularly, persistently and perhaps aggressively, without being overly aggressive in such a way that you are going to have to end up selling your BTC because you failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately plan your expenses, including your emergency expenses..

TLDR: Bitcoin likely gives more options, whether you actually reach fuck you status or not, especially if your investment timeline is 4-10 years or even much longer.


I think that each of us needs to consider ways in which we can avoid selling any bitcoin at a time that is not of our own choosing, and sure maybe there might be times in which we might need to shave off some BTC from our BTC holdings in order to make ends meet, but we should also be trying to plan our expenses (even emergency expenses) in such ways that we are able to draw from other funds rather than ONLY having BTC available to us for such emergency funds.. so likely if we end up having to draw too much into our BTC, then we likely have not structured our finances very well.. and we likely overinvested into BTC rather than making sure that we had our shit together, including sufficient and adequate levels of emergency funding sources for when shit hits the fan.. and shit always hits the fan, and it feels much better to be able to deal with it without having to sell much if any of our BTC.

I could also provide some personal examples of this, but hopefully, you get the point that I am making... which is don't be investing into bitcoin with money that you might need in the near future.. or even in 4-10 years or longer.. you have to attempt to structure your finances and your psychology in such a way that you are not tempted to sell much if any of your BTC except under conditions that you have personally already pre-established, such as once you are already at or near fuck you status or some other set of conditions that you might already understand to be within you BTC portfolio (and investment portfolio) management plans that might even allow you to sell some BTC on the way up in order to help you to better buttress you abilities to be able to better withstand long and hard BTC draw downs, if such long and hard BTC draw downs were to occur.


There are not really any problems to diversify out of some of your BTC in planned kinds of ways; however, at the same time, there are likely going to be needs to assess the extent to which BTC needs to be used for the various kinds of investments that you perceive to be important to your life or to persons within your circle.  There surely could be cases in which selling some BTC on the way up would be justified and also justified in such a way to diversify some of your investments out of BTC - especially also when your BTC holdings might have appreciated to very high percentages in terms of your overall investments that you hold.. and for those kinds of reasons, you perceive it to be better to draw from you BTC rather than drawing from other assets or income sources or credit that you might have available to you.


It may or may not be necessary for you to figure out various exact particulars of your history - unless you might consider that there might be some lessons for you to figure out how to avoid (or lessen the likelihood or impact of)  some of the specific ways that you might have made mistakes.

But probably it is more important for you to make various plans in regards to future scenarios rather than looking backwards into particulars of mistakes that you likely already identified and likely are going to be correcting.

Of course, sometimes when you are attempting to figure out ways to proceed going forward, there might be some aspects in which you might figure out that you have certain inclinations, and you might want to consider some of your behaviors from the past when you are building some of your forward going plans.. and also you might realize that you may well be better off to have a larger fiat reserve level so that you are able to buy on dips or not to panic when the BTC price is going down and does not seem like it is ever going to stop going down... we all likely feel those kinds of discomforts when we see the BTC price correcting more than 50% or more than 70% and even sometimes greater correction levels than that...and then staying down for longer than we expect too. and with additional corrections when we had been tentatively considering that the bottom must be in or close to being in, and then it is not in.

That's a road full of obstacles that I can use as a lesson that is valuable enough to be a big motivation for the future developments that I will do. I think one of the biggest factors is the lack of better knowledge of the direction of development of bitcoin that led us to fall into the wrong decision.

I don't remember anymore even it was buried not to see it. I think it's taboo to remember.

Well not that problem, but what I remember was in a situation when I sold it just to gamble and in the end it all disappeared with the trigger of excessive stress levels. But for now I have moved on from that bitter event and returned to a good direction and am more confident about buying and buying btc which I will keep for the long term.

You've explained well about prioritization, but the main point is don't invest 100% in bitcoin if you don't have a spare budget yet. Of course this is a repeated explanation as some users keep blaming themselves and their bad decisions after selling bitcoin for so long.

Let's say you have 100k in USDT that you want to invest, so don't invest all your money in bitcoin because you need a reserve budget. 20% of that is a pretty good amount as a reserve budget, even if you don't have enough later you don't need to sell all your bitcoin to cover your expenses. About whether you must have it or not, it depends on yourself and your financial condition. If you have more assets as property that can be sold instead of selling bitcoin, then you may have other options to avoid selling at loss.

Bitcoin's priority scale is not more valuable when you experience health problems, selling Bitcoin for health costs is not too bad for me and even if you sell Bitcoin as a business support is far more productive because when the business is developing you can buy bitcoin with a much bigger amount. But there are other ways that can be taken, namely making financial scale to meet other needs, such as health, children's education costs and costs for businesses that have been prepared.

Sometimes the conditions for the need for money are not in the right conditions where the price of bitcoin has decreased, so selling the bitcoins that we have at that time will make a loss. Preparing needs that are used through savings is also needed as an option when we need money suddenly and don't need to sell bitcoin when facing conditions like that.

The basic concept is that as long as we already feel lucky and the target we hope for has been achieved, there is really no reason to hold back because even though at this point there is definitely a bit of regret for not holding on longer, but indeed it cannot be changed because regardless of anything when we If you have sold it, you can't really do anything about it anymore.
What needs to be considered in this case is the profit and as long as we sell with profit in it then indeed for something like that there is no need to worry about it in my opinion because let's say your goal at that time has been achieved and now we don't have to find it difficult to buy because the price has been too expensive from a few years ago when you first bought because right now it also can't be used as a comparison and all you have to do is go back to buy with some of the schemes and plans that you have in mind whether it's with DCA or waiting for bitcoin to bottom and buy there as a future plan in front of you.

If you have a clear reason why you should sell your bitcoins in the past, then I don't think it's a bad decision.
There are many reasons to sell bitcoin holdings and one of them is when you feel you need the money urgently. Your health and anything other like building a business are some of the reasons to sell bitcoin, but if you have better options then holding and seeking a solution such as a loan is fine too.

I am happy that you have learnt from  your mistake ginsan for thinking that bitcoin is a short term profit generator,which this is what so many people always have at the back of their mind that is to sell and make profit when there is a little pump in price. They are blindfolded with little profit at the moment and didn't see the huge benefit when you hold for long. So many bitcoiners have this idea of selling durig the bull or in a price higher than what tgey bought as smartness and buying again after the price has dump below what they sold. They are just deceiving themselves thinking that they are making income not knowing that it will be hard for them to have that same number of bitcoin or higher than it after they have sold it,due to some financial circumstances that will come around the person and will make him use some part of the funds to solve.

Sometimes,the price of bitcoin might even discourage him to be able to buy back the quantity he sold. Ginsan take for instance that the price you sold those 5BTC of yours and compare it to assuming you left it to this very time,how much your bitcoin portfolio will worth. Anyway,we are in the forum to learn more on how to be successful in our bitcoin journey by accumulating more sats to our investment portfolio and also to learn and understand the reason why we must not sell our bitcoin but hodli for as long as we can. JayJuanGee is a genius in this aspect and he is ready to make one struggle his way to success in his bitcoin journey through his experience as an OG. This thread has really helped a lot of us to understand bitcoin bitcoin is all about hodli and accumulating in your capacity,so that you might able to reach that fuck you status someday. DCA strategy is a good one.

Sorry to explain off topic. Several times i have held more than 5 btc at the same time i sold it and at the same time i did not hold it long term. And only this time I realized that the decision to sell in the past was the worst decision I had ever made.  Maybe it's a bit stupid but that's my experience and I learned to go back to accumulate with DCA since I visited this thread and don't plan to sell again because I've learned from many mistakes that I've done in the past.

Indeed, that's what I said, I just started and hope for a lot of positive support, be it financially or otherwise, because it can make me more enthusiastic about doing the DCA strategy every week.

You've been a forum member since 2016 ginsan.. so are saying that since sometime around then, you have gone through 17 stages in which you had been weekly buying BTC on the dip.. (or what you perceive to have been a dip)?  That buying on dips like that works better than if you had just followed a strict DCA? 

If I understand you correctly, you are DCAing within a buying on dip approach... in order to attempt to get more bang for your buck with your DCAs.

A very strict DCA of $10 per week for the past 6 years would have gotten you real close to 1 BTC.. and you would have invested $3,660.

Did you do better than that in your trying to time your buying BTC on dips rather than just consistently buying on a weekly basis in order to attempt to reach your 1 BTC goal? and presumptively you would like to continue to accumulate BTC even after you achieve 1 BTC.

There should be some more savings if you really try to buy all at once without thinking about the price considering in this case of course we will also at least be tempted when we have bought at a certain price and bitcoin is declining again and is in a place that is indeed more worthy of buying.
Even though it's not wrong, but we have to have several pockets so that when bitcoin goes down we are ready to go back to netting at a price that we think is right. But indeed in this case DCA is clearly better in my opinion by not being too impulsive and buying as we have planned and at the amount we really want while waiting for some conditions and movement because if it goes deeper down then we can buy more than before .

That's very extraordinary, you have succeeded in instilling a belief that is strong enough and full of determination to carry out the investment you are making. Indeed, all of these twists and turns are quite difficult and full of challenges, but the level of confidence or experience that we have learned in previous years can be used as a strong reference to start here, namely buying and holding through each strategy. Indeed, I myself also feel a sense of boredom, but I have to get rid of that to achieve my target of buying btc every week and that is one of my targets in the long term.

On the other hand you have reached 52 weeks in the buying stage and that is quite an interesting milestone and I think you will get used to it and there will be no more burden to keep buying and buying. I myself, for now, have probably just entered the 17th purchase stage and even then I do it routinely every week. Well hopefully our dream can be achieved to have 1 btc and it will motivate us to keep buying and buying.

JayJuanGee is very correct in his statements on the amount of bitcoin in starch to determine individual confidence to face the ups and downs of the bitcoin market, and for a good reason I have the same line of thought because we have some bitcoin long-term investors that do not check what the price is all that the car about is that they have enough bitcoin to convert for their expenses., this is the stage of financial sufficiency where you have accumulated enough bitcoin over the time and as result becoming more confident and ever ready for whatever the outcome of the reality is on bitcoin value.
Buying the way down and selling all the way up is a good DCA practice, but it is better to hold Bitcoin for long-term goals, take for example 4 years investment approach.

I don't see it as gambling though, I see it as a test to myself, on how tough I will be on this kind of games. So I just started with a short term goal and then work my way up to a year and then now I'm confident of my capacity and mental strength to continue to accumulate although there were moments last year wherein I need to sell some stash because of the death of my sister.

Nevertheless, I was not deter, after that I continue to have plans and execute my strategy and I would say that I'm doing fairly good right or at least have the confidence now to be a bitcoin HODLer. And I'm trying to get to 52 weeks or even higher.




Thanks for this input, I will look into it as well and see how I can incorporate this strategy or even tweak it to suit my investment plan.

This is the reality of bitcoin holding for a long term that you just stated above. Buying in lump,wouldn't make you think much of the DCA strategy because you will relax for a while when your bitcoin has attain a significant figure or close to your target figure. But at the same time this strategy is for someone that do have once in a while some reason sum of money or for someone rich. Buying at dip is good when you prepare towards it,believing and hoping that bitcoin price will go dip because of its volatile in nature. This a good strategy because both the rich and average can take advantage of the market. Buying in lump and buying at dip will help one achieve his target amount of bitcoin fast than when you are using DCA method because one cash inflow might vary from time to time and when bitcoin price has pump to an extent,the funds for DCA would lesser fraction and the investor that is buying in lump or during the dip will just relax and keep holding till it is the right time for him to take advantage of the market again.

Success never come easily. There are some concepts that move with success. And there are endurance, patient, faith and hard working. And all these concepts hard working is the prominent one among all. All those concepts without hard working is vain. so someone that has interest in bitcoin investment must have those characteristics for the long run. If those things can not found in you then you are not ready for the life journey of success. Even bitcoin itself passed through all those characteristics. Bitcoin didn't just grow this level in one day, week, month and year. But more of those period.

Update from the Rainbow Chart #DYOR




BUY NOW    https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/ V2

Still Cheap buy and hodl

I believe Bitcoin can't be where it is today without the big challenges it faces from racists and world leaders. The more challenges there are, the stronger Bitcoiners become. For every temptation and problem that are being thrown at Bitcoin, the way and manner in which it's handled is what brings more people to it, and faith is being built.
And if Bitcoin and crypto currency at large don't possess any traits or are of no value, there would be no need for the resources and energy that they spend just trying to chase and regulate them.

Bitcoin will only be attacked by people who don't like it, so they can spread FUD, an example like this new case where the SEC continues to accuse several exchanges that have an impact on bitcoin, of course there are still many people who believe in exchanges, try if they are aware of saving in a personal wallet, maybe not will have an impact down with the presence of FUD.

And hardware is the best wallet where to store your built-in bitcoins, although there are other wallets that can still be trusted as long as they store the private keys securely.

Your second point is quite good where we have to remind them without involving third parties because it will have a high risk, by building a DCA strategy it means we don't use exchanges anymore to store it, and it is best when a correction is to buy.

But for those new investors or for investors who are accumulating Bitcoin, I think I have to thank Altcoin because they make Bitcoin again experience a correction, it becomes an opportunity for them to accumulate Bitcoin at a fairly cheap price, not my intention to support Bitcoin down The price, but feels happy because for some people the decline is gold, especially for me to meet the purchase of bitcoin at a discount price.

And keep in mind that Bitcoin does not have FUD, and what is affected by FUD today is Altcoin, which indicates that Bitcoin is the best choice, and the use of wallets in full control by yourself is the right lust in storing the Bitcoin owned. What happens now, I think we have to be aware of where we have to save our bitcoin.
I think it's useless we do DCA and do many strategies of buying Bitcoin, and get a cheap price but if it is still using in third party, the Bitcoin that we have has the potential to disappear.
Hopefully with this situation, more and more people are aware, Bitcoin is the right choice and storage with full control is a strategy for investment in bitcoin not in vain.

Your description of DCA is a wee bit strange Dr.Bitcoin_Strange.... .. especially since you are describing so much about changing your DCA based on the BTC price and that is not really what DCA is.. and you are describing buying on the dip.. and sure, there is not really any problem to employ both DCA and buying on the dip as you describe, but they are a bit different concepts in terms of how to strategize aspects of your BTC accumulation.

DCA really is something that you would employ once you have come to the conclusion that you believe overall the BTC price is going up in the long term.. so that you believe there is enough fundamental value in BTC that its price is going to be higher at the point down the road when you start to cash out.. so that you cannot really be sure that the price will be higher but that overall you believe that the BTC price is trajectoring upward enough that DCA'ing will be profitable .. so in that sense you largely establish a regular budget to buy BTC - perhaps based on your extra cashflow, and if you have changes in your cashflow then you may end up having changes in your DCA amount.. I have frequently suggested buying weekly for guys/gals in their early BTC accumulation stages, but surely there might be reasons that the buys might not be structured as frequently.

Of course you can have part of your budget that is set aside or reserved for buying on dips and so you might even stop and start DCA based on BTC prices, but that really is not DCA.. that is buying on dips and maybe using DCA within that kind of a practice..., and maybe my main point is to make sure to note that a more pure DCA strategy is largely based on the budget (cashflow and expenses) of the BTC buyer and not on the changes in the BTC price.. .. and maybe if someone is really early in their bitcoin journey, they would be more strict on making sure that they are buying BTC regularly, and sure they can try to time their buys at the lowest price in the week (or the month if they are making their buys monthly), and something like that still might be considered DCA, but if we are completely changing the amounts that we buy based on the price, that sounds more like buying on dips and maybe even a bit more of a luxury that comes after having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC already that it might not really matter so much whether DCA buys are made regularly.

Many of us likely realize that the more BTC that we accumulate, then the less we might feel emotional about the BTC price going up and the possibility of our missing out because our own accumulation of BTC has already largely prepared us for UP, and so part of the trick for any lowcoiner or no coiner is to get to a stage in which s/he at least has enough of a BTC stash that s/he is already feeling financially and psychologically prepared for up, even if s/he might have had wanted to have more BTC, at least there is enough BTC in the stash that there are good feelings about the BTC price going up.

So perhaps part of the justification of just following strict DCA and not even thinking about the dip would be for a very new person to bitcoin who hardly has stacked any bitcoin, and sure if they already have money (or other assets/investments), then they might consider a lump sum front loading into bitcoin in order to establish some kind of a sufficient stake in order to take away those kinds of feelings that deal with not feeling as if they do not have enough BTC in terms of being prepared for up.... but some folks get into BTC and they do not have hardly any other investments or assets or if they do have other assets, they do not necessarily want to draw upon those other assets/investments, so in those cases they might want to be more strict in their following a DCA strategy that has to do with their cashflow and maybe even wanting to be somewhat aggressive in their DCA amount until they feel that they have enough BTC to be prepared for up.

And, not everyone is going to feel that they want to be aggressive in their BTC accumulation, so those folks also might just get started with DCAing into BTC with a strict amount, but their amount might end up being a relatively low amount because they are still feeling hesitations in regards to whether they believe BTC is a good investment, and some of those more BTC hesitant people could take a decent amount of time before starting to feel that they might want to be more aggressive in their BTC accumulation approach including using DCA, buying on dips and/or front loading lump sum investing into it.


This thread is not about whether or how much shitcoins to diversify into and whether or not it is a good idea to even think about that crap... since we are talking about bitcoin here. Yeah.. people might get into shitcoins, but why distract us with that nonsense here?

Focus.

Focus.

By the way, since we are attempting to figure out dips in BTC price in this thread, then sometimes shitcoins can be relevant to the extent that they drag down the BTC price or they might drag down the BTC price.. and so yeah, we are trying to weigh our timing of BTC buys to the extent that we believe that buying on dip is something that we want to do.. which can supplement a DCA strategy.. or even replace a DCA strategy if the person has already accumulated a lot of BTC and met various accumulation goals (so buying on dips can come into play for both new investors and also for longer term BTC HODLers).