Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 521. (Read 108130 times)

But not every trader can win against other traders. A mere 10% are consistent in making all the profit FROM the other 90%-lesser-skilled-traders.

Only a few people accept this fact. They believe their losses went to "the market". It didn't, it simply went to the traders who are better than you.

Buy the dip cause it is an opportunity but be sure that the coin you are buying can easily recover when the market recovers, not those altcoins that when it dips it so hard for it to recover.

I agree with your point that traders who are analyzing the market should be able to increase the odds beyond a mere 50/50 guess.

I would be surprised that very many are able to accomplish anything close to 80/20 and that they would be employing decent risk management strategies to account for whatever purportedly reasonable probability assessment that they are able to accomplish based on their own skills.

Of course, traders would be seeking to build the higher level of skills with the passage of time and hopefully NOT losing too much money along the way while they are building up from 50/50 skill sets to something approaching 80/20, if that is even possible.

that's true if you guess the market and i'd say that it is more like a 80-20 chance with the higher being chance of losing because it wold be pure gambling with odds that can't even be measured.
but when you trade, you don't guess the market, you analyze it and try to speculate where it goes.

What did bitcoiners do during the "crisis" of March of this year?

Did what they did work for them?

Is there an overall best practice to deal with situations like March of this year?

Are there differences with a bitcoiner who has been in for 6 months or less as compared with one who has been in 1 year?  3 years?  5 years?  longer?

How about someone who is in their early 20s and just getting started in the working world, investing world and also in the building of wealth world as compared with someone who had already built some size to their investment portfolio, perhaps in their 30s, 40s or 50s?

Should they have dealt with the March of this year event differently?  How about preparing in case another March like this year event might happen?

I don't consider bitcoin as a short term investment platform. The price of btc isn't stable but it doesn't mean that if the price dropped from 11k to 10k range, you should sell it before. Bitcoin traders use the opportunity of this slightly upward and downward movement to make profit in short term. And most of the investor hold their coin for long term. Unless there is a crisis like the one happened on march this year.

guessing the market, it's like playing a game of luck with a 50 to 50 chance of winning.
if for one entry you need 1 $ and you only have 5 $ in your pocket then you can only predict up to 5 times, in contrast to people who have 100 $ to enter because they have more opportunities and also the chances are higher if your balance is more Lots.

Yes... you should be prepared to hold any BTC that you buy for at least 4 years from the time that you buy it.

And, you should only be trading once you are overinvested in BTC and your BTC's are profitable.. that way you are not investing more than you can afford to lose in the event that you buy some BTC and it takes 4 years or longer before that purchase might become profitable.


Maybe you spend 4 years accumulating a BTC stash, then you may well get ahead of the game and thereby a decent amount of your BTC would be profitable before you start fucking around with trading that you do not seem to understand.

First stages in BTC should be to accumulate a sufficient stash buy buying and holding... and not by selling... you just keep buying until a decent amount of your BTC stash is completely profitable... once you have profitable BTC in your stash then you can sell off small portions of it.. and the larger your BTC stash the seemingly larger amounts that you can sell...

None of us should want to sell too much BTC in order that we run out of BTC if the price keeps going up, and we do not have any more to sell because we had run out at 20% or 50% or 70% lower than the current price.

Surely, there are no guarantees with any of this, but people can still figure out strategies that they are mostly accumulating BTC buy buying, and then only selling when profitable.. and only small amounts so that they do not run out of BTC if the BTC price keeps going up beyond their expectations..

Remember 2017.. so many folks sold too many BTC at $1k, $2k, $4k, $7k, $10k, but then the BTC price went to $19,666 and they did not have any more to sell and some of them ended up buying in those supra $10k prices, instead of just HODLing through the situation.

Well goshdamned but I'm slightly excited about tomorrow's so-called dip day (if you buy that record-setting options expiry should shift volatility into high gear and lead to a selloff) cause I'm getting in a nice payday on assignments. Not exactly buying the dip but hoping to get paid during it! And then pay bills in ultra speed too cause don't wanna get caught out by it either heh.

Anyone else think tomorrow's gonna dud?

Yes we always have fear upon buying since imagine if we fall on bad entry for sure we will bag hold the coin for possible long term period and that would be a total mess for us especially if we have only small amount intended to use for tradings. That's why sometimes I always amaze to those people who knows how to trade with huge budget attached on their wallets since they can do the cut loss and buyback to gain and this method is so effective way to earn and to gain back the losses we might have for the day we trade.

Does not seem to me that anyone here is suggesting to sell at this point (well, you are).

The only question seems to be whether to buy now, or to wait for the possibility that BTC prices might dip lower or do both.

Of course, you could buy a little now, and if BTC price were too drop lower, then buy some more.

If anyone was going to sell any BTC they should have done so on the way up to $11k (3-7 days ago).. and surely, personally, I never suggest selling much BTC (unless you are well in profits and have largely reached accumulation goals); however, if you were going to sell some small portion, you should have already done so rather than doing it now.... selling on the way down is bad practice and bad form... and increases the chances to cause those engaging in such selling on the way down to end up getting caught on the wrong end of a trade.

Bitcoin is currently in a short-term investment, which has occurred several times the increase and decrease in a very fast tempo and it often happens. So it's hard to decide whether to wait to drop in the $ 10- $ 11K range or maybe it could go down to $ 9K, all of which can happen because the predicted increase will happen at the end of the year and continue to move into the next year.

it remains for you to properly analyze whether you need to hold a hold at the current price or buy or sell it with the aim that the price will fall again. but we can be sure the price will increase in the next year and could be several times from 2017. we are waiting ...

It's much better to have such plans before you decide positioning yourself, it's not new since the market is really volatile.

You have to prepare yourself and make sure you are capable in adjusting in case market continue to fall then you have still spare
money to buy and try to wait till the bounce show back and brings you decent profits.

There should always be a plan B yet price are way too unpredictable thats why you should prepare yourself if your initial step or plan had failed then if the price goes down even deeper then you should ready the funds for you to accumulate way more cheaper coins.We might presume that the price wont shoot down on big percentage on a single day.
When buying back then we do always have those doubts and fear which is unavoidable and i cant blame someone if they do panicked out due to that reason.
Its always been like this where people do keep telling on buying the dip but doubts will always be attached to it.

the problem is no one really knows if it has dropped to the bottom, for example the btc price fell from 15k to 12k, some people suggest that it has gone to the bottom and will bounce back but in fact it is still initially down again to the 10k range, so you have to prepare money or a strategy when the price goes down you buy and expect the price to fall again and will buy back at the next decline, at least it might be more useful.

if you are given the opportunity to buy the price at the bottom, then that is a good opportunity,
because the increase will occur if there is strong support, make sure you don't use all of your capital,
and you can share it to buy altcoins in the dip

Different time, lower price ranges, but the same path to price-discovery to 6 a digit valuation. I may have bought higher than you, but buying below $10,000 is still a golden opportunity in my opinion.

Largely when the price rise works out, the exact purchase price is not going to matter too much, and sometimes fence sitters are toiling over whether BTC prices might drop a few hundred or even $1,000 in terms of their buying threshold.

I recall sharing similar kinds of posts in 2014/2015/2016 when the BTC price had fluctuations that were all over in the triple digits - spending a lot of time bouncing largely between $250 and $700 during that timeframe - and surely, when we zoom out a bit, any of those BTC prices for that whole period seem like a god-damned bargain - whether buying at the high, the low or the middle.. just like you suggest, Wind_FURY.

By the way, on the short term, it may have felt really stressful to have bought a shitload of BTC in early 2014 for around $700 (let's say that you transferred a large portion of your investment portfolio into BTC that amounted to $35k or so, and so you acquired 50 BTC with that money) and then to sit on your hands for those whole three years while BTC prices were mostly below $700.

At the same time, costs per BTC could have been brought down somewhat by continuing to dollar cost average through the subsequent three years of 2014-2015, and perhaps even a modest $100 per month ($3,600) could have fairly easily added another 10 BTC onto the stash, so instead of crying that you bought too high, you actively stuck with your investment with a reasonable amount and brought down your cost per BTC from $700 each to $643 each ($35k + $3,600 = $38,600/60 BTC)..


Of course, a more aggressive DCA practice would have brought down the cost per BTC more, so for example if you had the inclination to lump sum $35k, and that was only intended to use half of your overall budget (on lump sum investing), but then you also planned to spread out the other 50%  of the amount that you intended to invest $36k over the next 36 months (which would be $1,000 per month), and you were able to increase your BTC stash by 100 BTC (rather than 10 BTC) then your average per BTC at the end of that period would have been ($35k + $36,000 = $71,000/150 BTC) = $473 per BTC. 

Sure currently at $11k per BTC, it may not make a real BIG difference if your cost per BTC was $700 each or $473 each, but still there are ways to have ongoing BTC accumulation practices that will not necessarily break you during the process of accumulating BTC but they will add up during time - even if you do not have any lump sum amount that you can start out investing, you can merely start with investing what you can and letting the value add up over time - even if the amount that you have to work with is only $10 per week.  Still adds up over time, and 5 to 10 years later, the amount of BTC (or sats) that you would have stashed away will likely seem like BIG numbers, even if the amounts did not seem like a lot at the time that you were stacking sats.

In early 2015 and even into 2016, I had entered into some cashflow issues that caused me inabilities to buy BTC during quite a bit of that time, even when the BTC price was lower than the amounts that i had paid in 2014 - but I recall some times in 2015, that I would come across an extra $100 or $200, and I would put half of that into my cash reserves and the other half would go into buying BTC.  So if the BTC price was around $250 during a lot of the time in 2015, I would either purchase $50 (.2 BTC) or $100 (.4 BTC) in BTC (that's half of my extra cashflow0.  I even made those kinds of purchases (of stashing away part of the cash and buying BTC with the other part of the cash) with smaller amounts of extra cashflow value when I had extra cashflow that would come in of $10/$5 (.02 BTC) or $20/$10 (.04 BTC).  Seems like a lot of BTC to accumulate now, but at the time, it just seemed like I was just adding piddly amounts of BTC to my BTC stash that might not even go anywhere (that is taking the chance that the ongoing incremental investment might go down rather than up).  Also, a lot of people like to think in terms of Satoshis, too, so if you are stacking away thousands or even hundreds of thousands of satoshis, it can start to feel like a lot after a while to have accumulated multiple millions of satoshis, and even reaching in the billions for some (which would be 10 more than BTC).

Because we plebs are thinking in the short term. Buying the dip also requires HODLing, dollar-cost-averaging, AND a very low time preference.

Plus would it truly matter if you bought Bitcoin at $3,000, $5,000, or $10,000 when it's done with its path to a 6-digit price discovery?

It seems to me that throughout this thread, several of us have been attempting to answer that question by suggesting a combination of personal BTC buying strategies to attempt to deal with the issue of how much of a BTC price dip is enough to buy, and personally I doubt that there are very many normies who can actually identify when a dip is over or how much of a dip to wait for in each correction period.

Many of us have suggested both identifying your own budget and buying regularly (such as DCAing) as a supplement to buying on dip.  Several of us have also suggested to NOT get too worked up regarding if you get the bottom of the dip, but just to buy regularly and to buy at various points within the dip, even if you may well not end up coming even close to maximizing how much BTC that you get, but if you are in a BTC accumulation stage of your investment (that you have personally established BTC accumulation goals for yourself, in terms of how much you want to accumulate), then with the passage of time, you will likely come out ahead with the value of your BTC even if you might run out of money from time to time because the BTC dip goes lower than you expected and lasts longer than you expected. 

Of course, there are no guarantees, but we have seen that BTC does still seem to be quite a great asymmetric bet to the upside, so in that regard, accumulating BTC is likely be a great practice as long as you have a long enough investment time horizon... such as having a time horizon that is 4 years or longer from any time that you purchase additional BTC.

In other words, I doubt that many of us here are expecting to be able to time anything close to any exact BTC price bottom, and many of us appreciate that the better longer term strategies continue to involve just buying BTC regularly, and doing your best in terms ballpark guessing in terms of buying the dip without necessarily getting obsessed with whether you had correctly gotten (or guessed) the exact bottom of any dip... it is not necessary to buy on any extremes of dips in order to become greatly profitable and successful with your BTC investment so long as you have a decently long and ongoing investment horizon.  At the same time, of course, there are going to be some personal variability in terms of circumstances, too, that can attempted to be accounted for and adapted to figure out if the accumulation of BTC would be a good plan and practice within your own personal situation.