Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 523. (Read 135860 times)

Bitcoin will always be like the special money for the internet. I'm impressed by how people are investing in it, but it's important not to buy it just because everyone's talking about it or because some die-hard Bitcoin Maxist say it's the only way to go without a well thought plan. The truth is, Bitcoin's value could keep going up forever, or it could crash to nothing. So, I've spread out my Bitcoin investments across different wallets to make sure I won't lose everything if it goes downhill. I'm thinking long-term, like decades.


Here's the idea buddy, You hold onto your Bitcoin for as long as you can work and support yourself with your body. When you can't do that anymore, you use your Bitcoin savings to take care of yourself. That's why they say money is like energy. it's supposed to replace the energy your body can't give you when you're old. In the end, you'll have this digital asset that can't be taken away from you, and it won't lose its value because of one person.

What you choose to do with your Bitcoin is up to you. You can give it to your kids or spend it when you're older.

Yes. very simple your statement above with the intent and purpose to continue to collect BTC at a very discounted price as it is today and in line with the philosophy of holding (HODL) and being in it for the long term of course and certainly not a practice of buying when prices fall when corrections occur but with the DCA method it can be a win-win solution for buyers.

I've said this many times that planning is something that should be thought of early on so as not to disrupt our investments later. And that planning must be done carefully and thoroughly including to fulfill our daily needs. We should not sacrifice something for our daily needs, because it is not wise to do so.
However, if we have thought about investing for the long term, we also have to think about everything in the long term as well, including something unexpected in our lives in the future that is financially difficult or other things that make us have to try hard to maintain our investment not to stop in the middle of the road.

Yeah.. your head is like a concrete block that is not penetrable.

It seems that I have explained a million different ways, and nothing seems to sink in because you already have your mind made up regarding what strategy you are going to employ and your inability to understand and appreciate that a newbie coming into bitcoin is likely going to be way the fuck better off just getting started rather than trying to figure out if a BTC price dip is coming or not... and once s/he has accumulated a certain amount of BTC and learned about BTC for a while, then maybe s/he will be in a better position to either change his/her strategy to supplement with buying on dips, rather than DCA or to completely replace the DCA strategy with some buying on dips kind of a practice.. that still may or may not be a form of DCA, depending upon how it is deployed..


It might matter in the context of someone waiting around for a Dip might end up fucking himself (or psyching himself) out of buying bitcoin on a regular basis and perhaps employing more aggressive ongoing BTC buying habits.. so maybe the whimpy guy ends up strategizing and not really buying as much as the guy who just buys regularly and perhaps supplements a bit more from time to time with extra purchases on dips.  Do you need some examples, or do you just want to act like the ONLY way to go is to buy on dips based on your retroactively looking at the BTC price moves and the figuring out the points at which some hypothetical person would have bought his/her BTC?


That seems to be true... and there are likely still at least another 10 years of front-running billionaires, even though some of them are seeming to start to "get it."... even though it is hard to know which ones of them are actually getting it rather than seeming to get it but not really getting it.   


Even though I agree that there is a considerable amount of freedom that comes from having greater levels of discretionary income, I do not really agree with the dichotomy that you seem to be creating (and Wind_FURY seems to frequently make a similar kind of dichotomy), and even though poor people do not have much to work with (when it comes to their discretionary income), they still may well have reasons to be more motivated to buy bitcoin because they may well not have very many other options, as compared with the options that are available to rich people and may end up distracting rich people from being able to see, recognize and appreciate the value of bitcoin.


You continue to sound a bit lost, HONDACD125... and unable to appreciate the value of holding bitcoin for the long term rather than contemplating when to sell.


I agree with everything that you said in your post bitzizzix except this part that seems to be emphasizing selling.

Sure there are likely going to be points in time that we are going to be selling portions of our BTC, but you seem to be implying that we are going to want to sell BTC and to hold something else or that we are really going to need or want to sell large portions of our BTC, absent just living off of the stack and largely just mostly continuing to hold the vast majority of what we have.

Maybe an example might be helpful? 

Let's say for example, a person got into bitcoin in 2015, and had a target of retiring in 2025, but not really sure how much BTC he was going to need.  so in mid 2015, he bought 100 BTC for around $30k, and then after that he just DCA'd $10 per week into BTC, and so he has an additional 2.5 BTC that he paid $4,280 over the past 8.5 years.

In 2025, he could just create a budget in which he just cashes out around 4% of his BTC stash every single year (or maybe 1% per quarter), and likely, he will be able to either live off of that forever or to use it to supplement whatever other income that he might have coming in, and maybe he might adjust how he sells his BTC based on the BTC price, but he would not necessarily have to tailor his cashing out (or living off of his stash) based on the price, he just cashes out 1% of his stash every quarter or whatever other kind of time frame that largely fits his formula (and maybe he will tweak his formula over time based on BTC potentially growing faster than he expected, but he might just decide to be strict about following the formula that he already established and just let the chips fall wherever they will)... which largely I am arguing that there may well not be any kind of need to cash out large portions of his BTC, unless maybe he might decide to cash out 10% and consider that to be 2.5 years worth of cashing out all in one go.

Of course dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an ideal financial strategy for investing in highly volatile assets like Bitcoin. And with this we are not trying to guess the direction of the market in the short term, because this aims for the long term so that we can sell at the right time with maximum profit.
And the DCA strategy is great for anyone regardless of whether it's a big investor or a small investor and whatever, and small investors can do within their means even a small amount to buy Bitcoins periodically. And if you do it regularly then your Bitcoin holding will be large and don't forget to always increase your purchases when the price is down. Because this is a good opportunity to buy Bitcoin in large quantities, and also return to normal when the price of Bitcoin starts to rise.
We cannot fight or equate large investors with small investors, the important thing is that we can apply the DCA strategy with full discipline to achieve satisfactory profits in the future and the only difference is the amount. And small investors can also become big investors if they make big profits and continue to implement DCA habits by increasing their purchasing levels periodically.

I think long term investment is the best investment to get good returns but the aim is never to start buying without thinking about the price. Of course, accumulating Bitcoin is a great strategy, but you should wait for the price of Bitcoin to drop from time to time. However, even if one has a large capital, he will try to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price so as to get more profit.

I think nobody's goal in accumulating Bitcoin is to accumulate more Bitcoin, but everyone's goal is to get maximum profit, and this is only possible when You get an opportunity to buy in a bearish market. One should never buy into the crypto currency market with full capital at once. Rather, one should try to buy Bitcoin at a lower price whenever the market falls. DCA is the best strategy to get good returns.

Yeah, you are correct, because definitely, for some newbie investors, it can be very difficult to decide whether to buy or not, even when the price is bearish. They will still be contemplating whether they should hold on and watch to see if the price will still fall. So, it's just wise for one to have a set amount (allocation) that they should invest in Bitcoin on the DCA strategy. Although small investors who don't have a large amount to invest would be the ones that really face this kind of secumbtance (I guess), because they have a small amount to invest, they want to make sure that they are buying Bitcoin at a very low price. Most of those rich investors or institutions that have enough fiat reserved just for Bitcoin investment would not really hesitate to hit the buy button any time they see that the price of Bitcoin is bearish.

I agree that we don't need to buy aggressively because it will give rise to some other impulses that disturb the mind from the heart that is afraid of losing when the market fluctuates lower than the buying price, it would be a bad decision if forced, not because of bitcoin today This has a cheap price and means taking stupid actions without calculation, unless the funds used are for long-term investment funds, and you have no problems meeting your daily needs.
But if you think about it again, this kind of thing is not a good thing, still the DCA strategy is the best, even if you use small funds to invest in Bitcoin, the longer it takes, the more it will accumulate.

Of course there is. I never understood why you never accepted a simple idea that to buy Bitcoin at a discount gives the buyer more sats for the bid that he/she made.

But in a zoomed out, low time preference context, it doesn't matter. We're here to HODL and front-run the billionaires, and in that at least we're on the same side.

Every time will appear to be the perfect time for every accumulator, as they don't have to always look at Bitcoin bearish times before they can accumulate; rather, they set out an already working strategy that they can use and that will appear safe in every given market situation. They always have a set amount of capital to purchase more and add to their holdings, as what's most important is the amount they want to hold before a certain period of time and not the price they want to buy it at before that time reaches.
 
Just like you said, long-time holders don't have anything to worry about when it comes to price, as the price won't have any effect on time. Even if their portfolio happens to drop a little in total worth, it does not change the fact that they foresaw beyond the recent market price, but they are focused on what will come afterwards.

@ginsan exactly, you are absolutely right. When someone hits the buy button, that's the right time and also. But a person has become an investor, but I want to add something to that also, when the person hits the buy button and it shows SUCCESSFUL that's the right time and nothing can stop the person from profiting unless his own self. Now I can imagine myself how I was feeling when I didn't hit the buy button then. It was like OH WHEN IS THE RIGHT TIME, and it was troubling me as of them, but now I am a free-minded person because I don't always go to my wallet to check prices. Yes, it is not a good start for someone who doesn't have a lot of money in his account to start an investment, because if the person runs out of cash and has no way to get money, the person might end up selling his coins.
On second thoughts, people who don't invest with bigger capital should hold for long so they can profit bigger.

In general everyone says as you said where the bearish moment is the right time to buy Bitcoin. But the right time to buy Bitcoin is when you hit the buy button and clear the worries in your mind. That's why purchasing moments don't have to be done aggressively if we don't have a lot of money because you can adjust each purchase level gradually by having Usdt reserves in your portfolio to accumulate Bitcoin in every downturn that occurs. Some big investors maybe they do every quarter so they won't be racing on short-term price declines because they implement long-term investments like some big investors do. But for those of us with small capital, maybe we do it every week with a small amount because we have to balance every turnover of money for living needs and also investing in Bitcoin.

Personally, I don't have any problem with the idea of ongoingly looking at the BTC price and the value of your overall BTC holdings as compared to fiat, and even part of the sentiment of this thread involves considering the extent to which there might be some value in terms of trying to time dips versus just buying BTC regularly without much if any reference to the price, and I have difficulties considering that both might not be done and/or accomplished without necessarily devolving into trading practices and/or panicking based on BTC price moves.

I recall that my first year and a half or so and maybe more I would manually make my BTC buys, and once I started to use automatic buys that were based on hitting the buy price (also known as limited buy orders), then that became easier to accomplish both manual buys and automatic buys that were based on certain price points... and maybe even less often having to use BTC price alarms in order to trigger me to make sure that I manually buy when the BTC price goes to a certain threshold of my interest.

In 2015, there were even several times in which I looked at my BTC holdings, and I would see that my average cost per BTC would have been something like $580; however, if the BTC price was then in the mid $200s or even lower, I would consider that whatever amount of bitcoin that I bought would be less than half the price of the average cost of my overall BTC holdings, and I would consider that each purchase that I made would bring down my average cost per BTC.. and it took almost the whole of 2015 to bring my average cost per BTC down from $580 and down to around $500 per BTC.. and so then by the end of October / beginning of November 2015, when the BTC price went shooting up from $300-ish to $500-ish, I almost started to panic (well I did end up panic buying at around $500 - so embarrassing) because the BTC price was going to end up being higher than my average cost per BTC, so there was a kind of good feeling that came from buying BTC and bringing down my average cost per BTC with each BTC purchase.

Every investor's own thinking creates their own investment strategy. Every investor should have a reserve fund to make proper investments. But before deciding to invest it is important to have a proper plan to hold for the long term. The current Bitcoin market is bearish so now is definitely a good time to invest if the right plan is presented. This opportunity should not be missed to buy the most that the Bitcoin market has to offer for long-term holders.

If you treat Bitcoin like a treasure worth holding, your mindset will significantly change. First, you will be more focused on accumulating more of it rather than bothering about the price. Indeed, it is very emotionally draining to be worried about Bitcoin price. From personal experience, one tend to look more on the price of Bitcoin when one is so curious about quick profits and not long term HODL. On the other hand, having a futuristic mindset with Bitcoin will eliminate this burden of looking at price always because the focus will be on how to accumulate certain quantity of Bitcoin by a certain year. This is where DCA comes in and am happy a lot of people are already applying same thereby eliminating some of the psychological burden that comes with buying Bitcoin without a well-thought out plan.


The best we can do at best is to expect as it is up to the market to decide. As a believer in Bitcoin, one must have some level of faith that someday, the price will go up even though we done know when and how. Another thing is also to look at history data and correlate same with previous events and the outcome in the price. This is where the halving comes in. So, I agree with you that the halving next year necessitate optimistic anticipation of rise in price.

Strange way of saying it.... crypto market?  hm?  is there such a thing?  why describe such a thing in order to attempt to figure out where bitcoin's prices might be established?


You might be right that investors become nervous by volatility, especially if they do not know how to prepare themselves (or their portfolios) for such volatility.. that in bitcoin is about as close to inevitable as anything might be in bitcoin..

In other words, one of the things most guaranteed in bitcoin is likely that it is going to continue to be volatile.

so if we know that bitcoin is going to be volatile, then it likely is a good thing to plan and prepare for such inevitable volatility.

I would agree with any assertion that points out that many times investors expect bitcoin to be less volatile than it ends up being, or they become disappointed that the volatility is in the direction that they had not anticipated, but that largely goes to their own lack of sufficient planning and/or preparing.

In regards, to your seemingly placing traders and investors in the same category in terms of their expectations, I doubt that is very accurate, since traders tend to love volatility and should be able to make money in either direction, yet frequently traders will find themselves on the wrong side of volatility because an overwhelming majority are likely not sufficiently preparing themselves or their portfolios in a way that they are able to make money no matter what.  Sure there are a small number of traders who are able to make money no matter what, but sometimes even the generally BIG winners get their trades wrong.

So traders are not equal in their abilities, and there likely are times in which traders are more aggressive or less aggressive in their own approaches that might even include their choices to not attempt to trade certain kinds of patterns and/or certain places in which they might have less confidence in placing a trade.. even though sometimes their own choices to "sit out the market" may well end up causing them to "fuck themselves" out of the times in which BTC prices might end up going up appreciably, and they "believe" that they are sitting out the market when the fact of the matter is that they are in dollars instead of bitcoin and failing/refusing to be in bitcoin during times in which they should be in bitcoin, which likely is most times, since nobody knows when the BTC price is going to go on an exponential UPpity run that causes it to be difficult to figure out when to get in, if you are not already in.  In the past, there are many times in which we have witnessed these kinds of unexpected UPpity bitcoin price performances.


But what is the trend that you believe bitcoin to be in?  Do you know?  


There are a lot of ways to trade, but so what?  We are not even talking about trading in this thread... and diversity in what sense?  Are you referring to shitcoins or trading some other things besides bitcoin?  or are you talking about various kinds of bitcoin trading (financialization) products?  Yeah, there are a lot of things that affect the BTC prices, and some of those might have to do with the various ways in which BTC is traded and also the various ways in which some products are not backed by the BTC that they claim to be trading.


That's not true.

Most traders do not make money, even though they might have periods in which they make money.  There are also a lot of ideas out there that trading is the way to make money when you do not have very much money, but that is not very likely to be true either.. at least not for the vast majority of traders.

Part of the reason that this thread has been so popular is that we are tending to talk about various kinds of ways to make money with bitcoin (and especially in the long run) by engaging in strategies that are against trading and more aligned towards BTC accumulation, even though surely, we have this thread through our discussion (including the topic of the thread) that involves discussing considerations regarding the extent to which there might be some value in attempting to figure out BTC price dips in order to take advantage of those dips to potentially be able to get more BTC than if you had just bought BTC regularly without trying to figure out the dips.


That is not a bad point, Macoach. 

I have found that there are frequently people who do not really understand bitcoin very well, and they value their profits in dollars, so they figure that any time that they cash out at a positive price, then they had done a good trade, yet many times these same people end up leaving a lot of potential profits on the table because they end up cashing out of way too many bitcoin and way too soon.. so even if they value their profits in dollars, they end up miscalculating either the UPside potentials of bitcoin, or they just might not even know enough about bitcoin in order to figure out some kind of a level of bitcoin that they might be willing to continue to hold, even if the BTC price might end up going down rather than up.

I understand your point but it is more than that. BTC has generally been pretty stable over the past few months, compared to lifetime volatility and to anyone who gets scared because of the fluctuating price of btc sholud be ready to get disappointed. What i have come to realize is that you haven't lost anything until you cash out

Every decision must have been thought through quite carefully, especially for those who make it in the long term. Every strategy used certainly has meaning for them and I will not question their decision. Everyone is ready with all the risks because the fluctuating price of btc will make someone have to think about everything they are ready to face.

On principle of accumulating Bitcoin I still rely on the DCA strategy because it makes it easier for me to find cheap price points along the way. As far as I have gone, purchasing through DCA is more promising than for those who do it instantly.

I know the supply of BTC is constant and there will be no more but the Market continues to run and I also understand The recent decline was triggered by several interrelated factors and it is common that value fluctuations are sometimes wild in the market. Yes. once again digital coins in this case, especially BTC, are unique and different, but normally the way a market works like this is if the demand for buying Bitcoin in the Crypto Market increases beyond the supply of sellers, then the price of bitcoin will rise and on the other hand, when there are more Bitcoin sellers than buyers, then the price of bitcoin will drop to a price point where the number of sellers and buyers balance is very useful, of course.

I think you also know that currently many investors are showing caution because they realize that excessive price drama regarding bitcoin and this volatility is a big worry among aspiring traders to put it mildly. But, one thing for me right now trends can always change or reverse, but the invention of Bitcoin has changed the world today and the beauty of trading lies in its diversity, and through the study of price action, traders should be able to profit from the same make them financially independent and stable and "Everybody Knows"

Now try to see through another parable by taking an example of one model of goods in the market, both traditional markets and modern markets with many kinds of goods models. You can see the price of an item for which there is no demand or demand but very little, I'm sure you will find a discounted price on the item so that the item can sell well in the market.

As for Bitcoin, actually this kind of thing can also happen because, as has been seen, a push from demand can indeed have an effect on increasing prices and that will not happen by itself. But because this is Bitcoin which is very different from other things, you also need to look at the other side, such as the overall Bitcoin supply level and the level of Bitcoin circulation that already exists in the market which can also have an influence on the price.