Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 524. (Read 135860 times)

Your cautious yet optimistic stance regarding possibility of significant increase in Bitcoin price is quite understandable. As an informed and experienced Bitcoin investor you are well aware of  that predicting future price of Bitcoin is very challenging task. Various factors, such as regulatory developments, general state of global economy and prevailing monetary policies, can impact all risky assets including Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, we can reasonably anticipate that there are favourable odds for significant price appreciation in 2024, which marks the year of Bitcoin's halving event.

Why is there any need to ask?  It is always the case that the BTC price could go up or it could go dow, but right now, it is more than $1,500 below the 200-week moving average which seems to mean that it is a pretty good price, relatively speaking.  What else would you need to know?


Does anyone know?


Sure.  Fundamentals and news.. momentum and manipulations.

How about if some players have goals to push the BTC price down as long as they can and as far as they can, and they try to employ a variety of tools to achieve their goals.  They may or may not be successful in their efforts.

You still cannot really determine whether from here the BTC price is going to go lower or higher... so what are you going to do?

Trying to answer questions of "why" seem somewhat futile since there are all of those things going on at the same time, but still we cannot tell at which points (if any) there might be some explosive BTC price moves upwards because they down manipulation has gone as far as it is able to go.


What are you doing red4slash?  Maybe you want to describe it? 

You don't have to give exact numbers, but you could give us some kind of an idea...   

Probably you have already said it, but you did not say it in this particular response in which you just said that you were going to continue to employ your one strategy.. which may well include several parts, but you did not say what they were. 

How long have you been doing the thing that you are doing?  Did you start out that way? 

Did you change your strategy?  why? 

Are you going to admit that we already know that BTC accumulators might employ a certain kind of strategy that might last a short period of time or maybe it lasts 1-5 years, and then where they are at might change what they need to do, so even though you are accepting that strategies are best tailored to the person, you have only vaguely mentioned in a conclusory way that the strategy that you are currently following is good for you.


It is a bit difficult to figure out red4slash because if s/he has been into bitcoin since his/her forum registration date in mid-2016, then if s/he would have followed a DCA strategy for that whole time, then maybe that could continue to work today, perhaps?  I am not necessarily against picking a good and suitable system, but sometimes even our situations change after several years.. something like 7 years could cause some justification for other strategies, but at the same time, there could be reasons to stick with the same thing, too... maybe just change the amounts rather than changing the strategies.

We might be able to see that even a very straight-forward DCA buying of $10 per week since June 2016, would have gotten someone to about 1 BTC by now after investing right around $3,800, but of course, if someone was able to buy $10 per week in 2016, at some point later down the road, s/he might increase his/her DCA budget and maybe after March 2020 decide to go up to $100 per week... so the person can change, but also the circumstances could change that might justify changes in the strategy even if NOT switching or adding strategies.


I doubt that I have ever said that the BTC price is for sure going up or even giving too many shits about when it happens, if it happens.

However, I have continued to say that it seems that ongoingly there are pretty decent chances that the BTC price will go up and continue to go up, so financially you are better off to have bitcoin rather than not having bitcoin, but you can choose for yourself if to have bitcoin and if so, how much to have, and if you choose to have bitcoin, then you have to figure out a way to get it, and if you are hoping to have greater advantages in terms of having had built your bitcoin holdings, then maybe you would like to figure out various strategies to be as aggressive as you can in terms of bitcoin accumulation, but not so aggressive that you end up overdoing it and having to sell some bitcoin (or suffer in other ways) merely because you overly did your bitcoin buying.

The method and understanding of investing in BTC using the DCA model is very clear and helpful, both from your explanation and that of other friends here. well, maybe this is basic for me but, one thing I think about is whether BTC will rise by itself without any demand and whether the predicted price prediction will come by itself... Another song, How do we know if the hunger will disappear if we haven't eaten.

Yea I’m liking it so far. I think after reading the whole thing, I now have a pretty good understanding of everything you said. I’m taking it slow and taking notes to make sure everything I learn sticks to my head. I am convinced it will be smart enough to figure out a system that works with the will power to stick to it. As for now am pretty sure DCA works for me so ill just stick with that

Indeed, choosing to focus on single strategy can have its advantages , specially when you become highly proficient in that particular approach, potentially increasing your chances of success. On the other hand, working with multiple strategies can mitigate the risk against market volatility.

In summary, the key is to find out what works best for you and stick to it, while continuously learning and adapting as needed.

Yes, of course, each holder has their own strategy and it is part of one's skill level in doing so. We can never force the strategies we use to be used by others, and perhaps we can only recommend them.
Like me for example, I'm comfortable with what I'm doing, and I prefer to focus on one strategy only, because for me having many strategies might not be good for me because at some point we might be dilemma to use which strategy.
I don't mean to say that people who work with multiple strategies are not good, they are still good. But for me personally developing one strategy is better.

While I understand and respect your point, I think it is right for me to make some clarifications.  Trading is not bad and can be profitable for some that have mastered the skill.  But considering the topic of this thread which is to buy and hold, it becomes a little out of place to discuss short time trading here. Most traders are just after short term profits and they do not really hold Bitcoin.

I am happy you agreed with me that DCA that dominate the discussion here is mostly and better applied in accumulation and holding for long.

Actually in this case I don't suggest or consider that trading is also a mistake because those who do it have their own thoughts and their own strategies to collect bitcoins regardless of others doing DCA or trading I think it's their right but when talking about investment then one of the best strategies is DCA. and when we want to be a good investor for the long term trading is too difficult to do because as you said a profit for a few days/weeks or months can just become a loss in one day when trading is bad so traders do have bitcoins but they are not investors for me because they have their own role which is as traders.
Unlike the DCA which is indeed one of the very good bitcoin buying strategies for today because this is a way of collecting bitcoins without having to worry about the bitcoins that we collect experiencing losses if we don't sell that.

You should know what factors can influence the value of bitcoin, so you don't have to question it.
I can mantions several factors; real use cases, adoption in a place/country, politics, global economic conditions and so on. All of this news raises issues there that ultimately have an impact on market behavior, so it's not the news that makes the Bitcoin price fluctuate but is influenced by the fundamental issues that I have mentioned. However, the role of news here is very large.

For our instinct what do we think that is the major caused of Bitcoin setback, because i noticed that Bitcoin have doesn't have much thing that bridges it values in the market except information and if information will bridge Bitcoin what do we think that can also bring bitcoin down in price, it's this aspect in cryptocurrency that I find difficult to understand the future of Bitcoin, because I know that Bitcoin have it's way of success, but the information that we think that affects the price of Bitcoin and also caused by the demand and the supply of Bitcoin I'd I'm not mistaken

I doubt that everyone knows the rules of engagement and/or that they are on the same page, as your statement seems to imply.

There is a lot of disagreement in regards to the market and at what points to buy and to sell, and surely if we start to get price momentum in a certain direction (such as UP), then we might be able to proclaim that the price is showing that opinions about the rules of engagement are synchronizing.. but there are still going to be exceptions of people who sell way too much too soon or put their shorts in and they end up getting reckt, even when it seems like "everyone" is making money.

When it comes to making sure that you protect yourself regarding how much you invest and at what points you buy and at what points you hold and at what points you might shave off some profits, it still is not healthy to presume, everybody knows... even if there is a song about it.


And that goes to show that you don't know anything... since you are merely making a simple and basic statement that's not really saying anything...

yes.. it is true that there needs to be more buyers than sellers for the price to go up, but are you really saying anything when you make such a simple observation?


ok


Glad to be of help... if my previous description helps your perspective.


I agree that short term versus long term perspectives might be different, yet your description of where we are at seems a bit strange.

Maybe there is a need for you to zoom out in your perspective a bit in order to attempt to better describe where we are at and then to be able to frame where we are at in terms of how the perspectives might be, and surely there are some folks who might not even know where we are at, so they get confused by the descriptions of others because they are already lost.

If we look at the 2015-2017 BTC price run, we see somewhere in the ballpark of a 75x price appreciation, and then maybe if we see the 2019 to 2021 BTC price run we got around a 16x price appreciation, and whether that is normal or not, we ended up getting a pretty strong price correction from November 2021 until November 2022, and so far the bottom of the correction was $15,479, which may or may not have had been confirmed to be a bottom if we consider that the BTC price started to move up around the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023 to so far ONLY get us up to $31,818 as the mid-July 2023 high of that come back, and so I have my doubt about how accurate to be jamming all of the price dynamics of the last year as if it were all some kind of a supposed consolidation, when the fact of the matter it seems to be that the bullrun likely already began, but it is having a hard time taking off, and there are some corrections along the way, and surely if we bounce back below $20k, then likely a lot of my current way of characterizing where we are at would need to be reconsidered. and maybe at that point we might suggest that we had been in a year long consolidation and even questioning if the bottom is actually in yet or not.

Of course you are right, and that's why I tried to remind him instead of just thinking about how to accumulate but ignoring the importance of a reserve budget. This advice is good and really worth considering for anyone, but still every investor has their own way of managing their finances and planning their investments.

For me, a reserve budget is a must-have so that investment plans are not easily damaged by unexpected things. That is a wise mindset before deciding to invest, of course if they plan to hold it for the long term.

Maybe that's also true, but some people stick with other approaches such as just waiting for the ATH or selling during a bull run cycle. Of course it doesn't have to be 5 years, but it depends on when they started coming in.

Halving, demand and supply, Scarcity and pice; all these are parts of what might influence the buy pressure of BTC but the concrete truth is, if the market keeps going at this uncertain rate, more people are gonna be skeptical about buying the dip, the market has been consolidating for more than a year with no much buy pressure.

Just when you think its about to be bullish, a sudden news brings it to its knees, this kind of situations makes people look beyond the regular factors. Remember, people buying are investors and investments have timely tunrover expectations. So an investor is expecting a 10% per anum return and Bitcoin isn't promising that yet, he has other options but for long term investors or those who store BTC as a form of value, I think they have a different perspective.

Ultimately it is personnel choice of every individual to select the strategy that suits his risk tolerance level and financial circumstances. While, your advice to be careful when exploring different investment strategies sounds good. However, investing in Bitcoin passively or aggressively is never akin to gambling. Over the long term, all investors who accumulated Bitcoin at various price levels, have fair chances to gain substantial profit.

I'm not necessarily endorsing any of these types of strategies, I'm more of a dollar cost averaging/long term holder kind of a guy, but if you do insist on gambling trading then you should be more careful. Maintain a unique strategy would be a good idea but when you think you want to adopt other kind of strategy because you feel your good at DCAing you might lose what you have accumulated for years.... ITS NOT ADVISABLE!

  . Next year's Bitcoin Halving is going to be an interesting year for investors and everyone knows the rules of engagement. One thing I know at the moment is that demand is the only thing that influences the price increase. BTC needs to be bought to get and increase the price apart from other factors such as investors' concerns about banking. Of course, all those who have invested and kept BTC are also prepared to sell it with profits with various timeframes.

However, what you said is something that is very likely to happen after the halvening and this is my note as well as an additional reference that I have been looking for all this time, Thank You.

Your perspective on Dollar cost averaging (DCA) and its suitability for various phases of accumulating and managing Bitcoin holding is quite insightful and we all Bitcoin enthusiasts to consider adopting this strategy to potentially gain huge rewards in future. DCA is indeed popular investment strategy as it helps to mitigate the impact of risk associated with market volatility. However as your holdings of Bitcoin grow and our goals evolve, other strategies such as buying on dips and lump sump buying start to appear more appealing.

Why should you buy and hold Bitcoin?

Points of view:



A group of students from Cambridge University, a famous university in America, published a comparative report on the power consumption of Bitcoin mining and clothes dryers, where the power consumption of clothes dryers m/c in America is more than the amount of power consumption required for bitcoin mining in the whole world.

Drying Clothes Power = 108TWH
World Mining Bitcoin Power= 95.5TWH



"The People's Court of China" published a report on a legal status of virtual currency where they called Bitcoin a legal status for the nation.
The Bitcoin market went into a pump situation when China appreciated on Bitcoin and subsequently found new ATH. So such a positive announcement from China is undoubtedly a pre-signal of the bull market. So those who have not invested in Bitcoin till now get ready to invest in Bitcoin very fast and plan for long term holding.



Long-term investors are at the top (ATH) of Bitcoin's market.

Source:Click

What exactly do you want to mean by this because looking at the statement you gave, you actually want to lead to DCA or buying a large amount at once because these are 2 very different strategies.
On the other hand, when we focus on DCA actually if we want consistency I think we don't really care about corrections and prices because we already have an initial determination with DCA consistency according to what we plan so that regardless of how the market upheaval or maybe a bitcoin correction occurs, it doesn't really affect consistency if we seriously want to do DCA.
As well as when saying All in, it's not DCA mate because as I've said before (I thicken) DCA is not just limited to buying bitcoin once after that's done but needs some consideration where you have to have a plan and think about the financial condition whether we can still be consistent to make purchases for a period of time.

It seems that when the target is long term investing, then there might be a kind of underlying preference in regards to thinking of the underlying asset (in this case bitcoin) as something that you are figuring out how to continue to build, so you do not centrally build by selling, even though you might be able to engage in some kinds of BTC portfolio or size of allocation into BTC management through some small amounts of selling, but that still would not cause you to get too far from the overall sentiment of this kind of a thread which involves considering BTC as ongoingly valuable - because many times people do not really have any clear examples regarding where to put their value, except maybe for temporarily riding the BTC price swings in order to get back into bitcoin, and so even those ideas of trading are contributing towards considerable deviation from the thrust of the this topic too.

I like DCA as amongst the better of methods, if not the best method... except once you start to accumulate more and more BTC, then there may well be some value to engage in more buying on dip practices or lump sum investing practices rather than DCA practices.. s then the questions regarding how much BTC that we might have in compared to other assets that we have as compared to what is our annual salary all likely become relevant in terms of considering where we are at and what kinds of methods that we would like to employ in terms of whether we might still be highly in an accumulation phase or getting more into some kind of a maintenance stage, and further, if we realize that we are looking at 5-10 years down the road for wanting to start spending some of our value, then we might already figure that we are closer down the road as compared with someone who might either not be clear about how many BTC that s/he might need or maybe also whether they  might be considering even longer timelines of 20-30 years down the road... and sure it sounds funny to talk about bitcoin in terms of 15 , 20 or 30 years down the road, when bitcoin is barely just getting into turning 15 years old in January... but maybe even feeling younger than that if we might be considering the extent to which it may have ONLY had monetary value for a bit more than 13 years.