Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 525. (Read 122897 times)

I don't think we can drop till $3k. That is too low already. If ever the price drops then I think we can only go $13k at most. The reason why $3k is possible in 2018 is because the ath in 2017 is only at $19k but the latest ath we have is already at $69k. That was a bit high and the drop that we experience are already too much.

It wouldn't be fair if we will go for more dips but like you I am also bullish with btc now and the whole crypto market and I also think that the bottom is already reached last time. It must be $15k for btc but I don't know for other coins as I am not really following their prices. A slow progress is fine, at least it is progressing but there will be times where it will speed up, and that can signal that the bear is starting to wear off.

Stick to the principle of a longer period as the goal because the goal of bitcoin is indeed like that maybe as you said before 5-10 years is the best period in my goals and expectations.
I will follow the direction that has been planned to be as flexible as possible because even if the price does not match expectations, it means more in one direction, I must still follow the main flow and must also be able to face this challenge, even though it is not easy, but what becomes consistent will be our commitment.
In fact, I was able to collect .3BTC during the bearish period, which is a blessing because I always stick to the principles and strategies that have been applied In essence, we really have to be able to manage everything, so that nothing affects us, including the understanding of other people.


Exactly, I always target every month with an allocation of $ 1000 (as an example) that is what I can afford and divide every week but not included in DCA all of course I have to be able to wait for the moment to buy a dip from some of the money allocated and it's not always comfortable for one direction on the strategy but I want to buy dips for some of this while the market is still in a bearish phase and 1/2 is a fair share of the money spent on both.

I have to take into account both of them and separate the two wallets between DCA and Dip, but this has been planned beforehand so I need to guide again so that everything I have obtained so far makes spending on these investments not a pressure, but I say I feel enough satisfied with my income and certainly can put aside for bitcoins.

I've read people who said that they're referring and waiting to that low as if the price would go back just like in 2018. I'm also bullish and only giving the thought of what I've read from those folks. Yeah, it is quite unreal but just for the sake of thought and reference, ajiz might think of it. What I think is that I'm with those people that think that the bottom was already in, we may see a very slow progress but this is essential and normal as we're still in the bear market. Although, yeah, this is a roller coaster ride at most times and predictions are predictions and it could be in or out, we'll just get to see it when it does.

I understand that when the BTC price goes down, there can be temptations to attempt to preserve the value of what we have and to try to assure that we do not lose anymore value - and therefore, if we sell then we can lock in the cash value that we have... and I am thinking that if we are too tempted to sell when we should be buying, then we likely bought too much when the BTC prices were higher.. and surely any of us can make mistakes and we likely do make mistakes - because through most of 2021 we had seen a lot of signs and heard a lot of hype about the BTC price going up.. and we expected the BTC price to go to higher prices than what ended up happening....

So yes.. there are a variety of reasons that mistakes can be made - but if we have strong enough conviction in regards to bitcoin's investment thesis, then we are likely going to continue to buy.. and then if we run out of money to buy more and we are scared about further BTC price drops, then we will either just HODL... and wait for the BTC price to either come down more and/or we might engage in practices to attempt to increase our cashflow by earning more money or saving more money (saving on expenses) in order that we can buy more or in order that we can be prepared to buy more.



I agree with you that if you plan ahead, then even if the BTC price shoots way further than you expected in one direction or another, your plan should still be sufficiently flexible that you still have a plan that you can follow, even if you might have to adapt the plan several times along the way because the BTC price had overshot your expectations in one direction or another or for longer periods than you expected to be possible.


 A pure form of DCA does not account for the BTC price at all, it just takes a certain amount of your budget and injects it into BTC purchases on a regular basis no matter what is the price because an underlying assumption in DCA buying is that in the longer run.. such as 4-10 years or longer, the BTC price is going to end up averaging out to be much higher than the prices that you would currently be buying BTC, and even likely higher overall.. but none of the matters regarding price are guaranteed, but largely presumed to end up going higher in the longer term, even though in the shorter term the BTC price could move against you, and the price could keep moving against you for several years before it finally either recovers or you start to get back into profits.

Sure, you can supplement your DCA plan with buying on dips.. and even setting aside money to be able to buy on dips (whether those dips end up happening or not).

Let's say that after you account for your income and your various expenses, you have about $1.2k per month that you can invest..... so that would be $300 per week, but you do not feel comfortable using it all.. so maybe you divide it in half, and half goes towards DCA and the other half goes towards buying on dips or at least stacking cash to be able to buy on dips if those dips happen.  Or maybe you do not even feel comfortable with that plan, so you DCA with 1/3, you plan to buy on dips with the other 1/3 and you just set aside the final 1/3 because you feel that you had made too many mistakes in the past and you feel that you do not have enough cash..

Your specific circumstances are going to help to inform you what might be the better of ways to keep yourself in a balanced state or to maybe tweak any mistakes that you feel that you had made  and maybe regroup while continuing to maintain some variation of a system that you had already determined to be a valid system, even if at the same time you feel that the BTC price has been moving against you and might continue to move against you for a bit of time into the future.


Fair enough.

You can have some general and specific targets without forcing yourself to be rigid in regards to reaching your various targets.


I don't have any problem with the ideas of having specific bitcoin accumulation targets, yet at the same time, I have tended to maintain targets that also will show my dollar values, too.

So for example, if a guy/gal is living in the west, s/he might consider that he needs to get to something like $2 million in networth in order to get to entry-level fuck you status, so surely it could take a long time before 3 BTC might be considered to be worth that amount or even close to that amount - even though a previous chart that I drafted in December 2021, using a projection of the 208-week moving average, I considered that it might be possible to reach entry-level fuck you status with 3 BTC by late 2027.  I concede that I may well need to reconsider some of the presumptions of chart including that I was using some variation of a straight-line projection of the 208-week moving average, and a decreasing slope curve might work better than a straight-line slope curve..


If you remain in bitcoin accumulation stages, then one of the main things is to continue to increase your BTC stash.. until you get to a point that starts to cause you to feel more comfortable, so we have seen that a lot of very rich folks either got tricked out of their bitcoin or they engaged in sloppy behaviors by trying to be greedy with their bitcoin, wanting to earn yield, trusting their BTC with third parties and engaging in highly leveraged behaviors with their bitcoin.  A decent amount of folks lost their BTC, and some of them were normies or even poor people, but some of them were rich people and even institutional players.

Many of us who are still holding our bitcoin, and maybe ONLY stacking a few thousand sats per week may well be doing quite well if we can continue to just add to our bitcoin stash and to keep our bitcoin safe over the next 4-10 years, and then if we have been building our BTC stash, we may well be in a relatively better place than if we had not been stacking sats.. DCAing and buying the dip.


From my perspective, you seem to be quite unrealistic tabas to be referring to the possibility of a bottom that is similar to 2018 - $3k-ish...

Another thing, is that last year and even through a large portion of this year (until about May 2022), there were a lot of folks who considered the 200-week moving average to be quite unlikely to be reached within the next 3-6 months.. which was then at about $22k.... and also historically, the BTC price had not gone below the 200-week moving average for very long periods of time, and now the 200-week moving average is around $24k and we had already hit $15,479 - about 2.5 weeks ago.

Yes.,,. the BTC price could go lower..

while at the same time... ... yes, we are at historically low BTC prices that are quite a bit lower than places that they had previously been...

Everyone is responsible to their own buying including how much to buy how to structure their buys and even whether to buy or to wait for lower prices that may or may not end up happening.

Of course, your punchline and my punchline are the same... which is to start buying today.. and especially for low coiners or no coiners to get started and to figure out some kind of a plan .. but we also should be attempting to be realistic in regards to how to describe possible bottoms.. and $3k seems to be really detached from reality today, even though $3,124 happened in December 2018.. and also $3,850 happened in March 2020.. while at the same time.. it would take a lot of issues even to get bitcoin to go into 4 digits.. so suggesting $3k-ish seems to be quite a fantastical stretch.. ..

Another thing is that it is possible that the bottom is already in.. but personally, I believe that we are still in a bear market, so even if we are likely to recover from her.. we are still pretty close to $15,479 and we likely should not be proclaiming with confidence more than 50/50 odds that the bottom is actually in..  

We may not have the idea if it's the bottom but you should get a reference to say that you consider it as a bottom. Like if you've witnessed the last year's ATH then we're actually in the bottom now. But if you're going to refer to the bottom of 2018 then we're not yet in the bottom of it because the lowest during that year was around $3k. However, do you think that it's going to reach back at that low? Many don't think so, and that's why we're telling to buy the dip and there's the idea of what you must do. Because when we reach back to the top again, most people that didn't followed the advise will say that they should have bought it when it was at the bottom. As for your guidance, if you want to buy at the bottom, start from buying today but mix it with the strategy of DCA.

The mental aspect must be prepared to meet what is needed as long as we make purchases, usually buying HIGH is always tempted by wanting to sell what we have, while buying DIP it is difficult to determine from what number we have to enter the entry, but for me the most important thing is to be organized in the sense of being able to be disciplined by doing some strategy eg DCA isn't this what includes regular buying from DIP to HIGH?


Considerations must be paid attention to, indeed this is most important when you want to differentiate from other investments, especially cash flow that can be sufficient to fund all the desired investments.

Target:
I have accumulated 0.3BTC throughout the bearish, my goal is to have 3BTC+ this does not specify the time I have to do it all the time.
I have tried many things including the analytical skills needed in bitcoin to determine the best price to buy, but my skills are not that much more so I will still be more inclined to the routine purchases that I have made, so that other considerations including other investments have been made by me note and consider all that refers to bitcoin for myself.
Yes, as much as possible I should be able to control as long as I still have bitcoins.

The main part of the formula that you need to accomplish first is to sufficiently and adequately prepare yourself for UP, which means buying BTC somewhat regularly, and if you can figure out dips to some degree then attempt to buy on dips.  If you are having trouble figuring out dips, then just buy regularly and do not preoccupy yourself very much with whether there is enough dip or not.

A great deal of the punchline themes of this thread is to help folks to figure out long term strategies to accumulate BTC and to attempt to tolerate some of the inevitable volatility by reserving some fiat to buy on dips...

Surely each of us do not necessarily agree regarding how to balance the matter of sufficiently and adequately buying enough BTC on a fairly regular basis to sufficiently and adequately prepare yourself for up.. and in that regard, you have to measure each of your variables and to figure out what is going to be the better of balances for you.

Individual considerations include but are not limited to cashflow, how much bitcoin we have already accumulated, our other investments, our view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and our abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.  It is best to attempt to take care of the more basic aspects of these considerations before getting into more complicated considerations, and of course, it is up to you regarding how complicated you want to make your own strategy and whether you might consider yourself to be ready to go beyond the basics and your assessment regarding whether you believe you have sufficiently and adequately considered the basics from your perspective.

I really don't want to say it but I need the answer, you simply say Buy the Dip and sell High, to be honest, as far as I know, people who say that, they really don't know exactly and clearly the bottom price when bearish and the high price in ATH formation new. On average, those who do technical analysis and others don't know exactly where the DIP and HIGH are in a trend and only make approximations of speculation without giving a definite answer. If you have a way, please help me, maybe I will throw my old way of buying Bitcoins.

You are correct Ani1985 that in 2021 the BTC price went up to mid-to-upper $60ks on two occasions and several times when the BTC price dipped, there were recommendations to buy the dip, and even $50k was considered to be a decent-sized dip worthy of buying.

There were also some peeps, who shall remain unnamed, who strenuously proclaimed that "the BTC price will never go below $50k again"... hahahahaha  Can you imagine that?


I am not going to assert that I am exempt from accusations to proclaim that I bought too much BTC at too high of prices and that several times, I had to reallocate my budget in order to continue to have money to buy on the dip... so any of us can create what we believe to be a pretty decently solid plan to buy on the dip and to even attempt to structure such plan in order that we believe that we are preserving enough funds to be able to continue to buy BTC all the way down as the BTC prices are going down - yet when we really consider the matter, if we are attempting to prepare our BTC portfolio for both down and up, and if we are somewhat bullish about our belief that BTC prices will be going up in the future, bitcoin's outrageous price performance history shows us that there are going to be a number of times in which the BTC price drops way more than our expectations.. so we have to figure out strategies to attempt to deal with that... including to be both mentally and financially prepared that our BTC holdings might not be in profits for a decently long period of time.

So getting back to your final point.. which is your assertion that it is quite likely that each of us prefers that our BTC holdings are in profits in order that we have more options... so perhaps if we are in profits, we will not feel bad to sell a bit or maybe just to let the profits ride.  The compounding effects of profits can be quite strong if the profits are allowed to ride and to compound upon themselves over and over and over... and of course, at the same time, there is no guarantee that we will either be in profits or that our that we will be able to hold onto our BTC for a long enough period in which we are able to benefit from ongoing compounding effects.

To be able to succeed and get a large profit when we invest Bitcoin is Buy Dip and Sell High, when the price of rising in 2021 many said that the price of $ 50k is DIP because the price will continue to rise, unfortunately I also bought when rising and hold too Long so that it loses the opportunity to sell, now the price is around $ 17k and the time to buy again and forget the high prices ever, focus on the goal of profit.s

Dead? hahaha, I am very amused to hear that, I think the Bitcoin price pattern is just to kill crypto developers who cheat users which will take more victims and remind everyone to be careful of Centralize Exchange developers.

The media are only looking for "clicks" to make profits at certain events, they deliberately use controversial titles so that many people are interested in reading them, and that's how they seek to profit from an event that is sensitive to society.

I think the right time is now, why? because in terms of price $ -20k has become the bottom of the historical decline in bitcoin prices.
If looking for additional work first it will take time and the price of Bitcoin will return and you will definitely be left behind.
Starting from now is a good choice, even if the purchase is not big but at least we have reserved seats on the train that will leave soon.

Onchain data from GlassNode illustrates the truth that 66% of the TOTAL Bitcoins in circulation have stopped moving for the last 12 months. I believe it's the highest in the whole history of Bitcoin's existence?

Bitcoin in exchanges are also going down and DOWN since the crash of FTX.

Less Bitcoin in exchanges = less panic selling.

It's the "bear market", they FUD and have us the plebs sell our coins in panic, while they the whales want to front run everyone before the next bull cycle.

But I believe it's not working anymore. The plebs are smarter, the plebs are accumulating, the whole-coiner-pleb-count is rising/increasing. Buy the DIP, and HODL.

It's not only every bear cycle, but truly declaring "Bitcoin/Crypto is Dead" from mainstream media appears near bottom, or the very bottom of the bear cycle. Everyone should start paying attention, plebs like me can't be wrong all of the time. Hahaha.

If there's a "good season" for DCA, I believe it's the present. Start saving if you don't have the capital to deploy. Find a second job if you have the extra time.

one of the things that woke me up was the news about "Bitcoin is Dead", yes we all know that news like this has appeared every bearish season,
and indeed if we compare the current bearish season and the last bearish season it was more dire due to FTX, TerraLuna and several big companies like Alameda have also gone bankrupt,
of course this is not a small thing because they have a big influence on crypto, but CZ has also said that we are going to a better crypto world and of course there will be victims first to achieve this that.
Hopefully this time the news about dead bitcoin can be the bottom of the bitcoin price itself like in previous years.

News, memes, and actual data that might be giving plebs like us some indication that's IT'S THE BOTTOM, but continued to be ignored.

1. The same narrative during 2018 and 2019 again that, "Bitcoin/Crypto is dead".



2. Elon Musk starting to post memes about Bitcoin again. Is he buying?



3. Actual data that shows that 120,000 Bitcoin and 1,400,000 Ethereum were withdrawn from exchanges last week and in the custody of their actual owners.

Simplify, just use U.S. Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs, . It doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin has already won the war in what is truly the Store of Value of all cryptocurrencies. Ethereum? Dogecoin? Other shitcoins? No, they have lost the war.

Plus it's time to pay attention. Be ready to deploy our "soldiers", savings, for the next "war", next bull market. Don't wait for the whales to front-run you. YOU front-run the whales!

The thing that is still difficult to get rid of at this point is to remove to value every good and service in dollars. Because that is still very much done by everyone in this world (including those who are not familiar with Bitcoin), and I personally also often value things in dollars so that the people I talk to can understand it more easily.

Even though everyone can value something with other currencies that they are familiar with and have also used in life, but it is always rare so that the valuation of goods through the dollar currency always occurs more dominantly in life. And for the parable of 1BTC = 1BTC I think it is better to replace it with 1BTC = ... (its own value) with a clearer understanding and easier for everyone to understand.

I don't have any problems with ideas regarding attempting to evaluate and valuate bitcoin in terms of dollars, whether we are talking about current value or future value - because largely I have difficulties understanding what is the meaning of 1 BTC = 1 BTC, even though a lot of smart people talk like that... but such a statement about 1 BTC being equal to 1 BTC  still does not mean much of anything to me.. except for removing us into abstraction, fantasy and detachment from the real world.

It seems to me that we do not necessarily need to devolve into such meaningless (and vacuous) statements such as 1 BTC = 1 BTC in order to attempt to figure out that BTC is the soundest of money that we should be attempting to accumulate.. and at the same time, the dollar is likely to remain quite dominant as a very widely liquid currency for many years to come - but still even having a parallel dollar system and a bitcoin system, hardly seems to justify that any of us should feel that we need to completely remove ourselves from the dollar system, because a lot of goods and services continue to be priced in dollars and will likely continue to be priced in dollars for many years to come - even though BTC is also likely to continue to gain a lot of value relative to the dollar as it already has historically - even though in shorter-term periods, BTC is almost certain to be inevitably volatile against the dollar... though with ongoing longer term likelihoods that the volatility will be towards the upside for bitcoin.

So in that regard, it seems blind and fantasy to fail/refuse to attempt to consider both the value of the dollar and the value of bitcoin and attempt to adequately and sufficiently allocate to be able to have both.. have enough dollars to cover short term expenses, and attempt to continue to accumulate BTC or at least to account for NOT selling too many of them too soon as it is likely good to continue to accumulate them.. but each of us also has to be careful NOT to overdo it.. and/or to over invest in bitcoin in such a way that we are forced to sell more bitcoin than we would like to sell at a time that is NOT of our own complete and voluntary choosing.

What we invest means that we have to understand, don't just look at the trending session, so I think it's wrong that someone invests in bitcoin, for example, but he doesn't understand what bitcoin is, so it's better not to invest, of course it will be risky.
Look at BTC = BTC, don't look at BTC = Dollar if you look at it like that then we will think it's a loss to see the state of BTC that is falling, especially for those who are not strong enough to see the current situation they must have panicked over the events in that 1 night, for me it's relaxing can even buy more DIP.

True, investors do that for long-term investment even DCA and HODL strategies are common in their investments but can maintain for a long time.
Well at least with us continuing to invest all the time we have the opportunity for bigger bitcoins depending on how many years we run it, indeed in bitcoin there is no guarantee in the future how big the bitcoin price will be but we have confidence in bitcoin which will be more big, we have a big community all over the world bitcoin is not controlled by anyone but with this we are optimistic because we have learned about bitcoin in the future.