Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 539. (Read 123612 times)

I think, the price of bitcoin has dropped down to $22,000 few minutes ago which there is still opportunity for those that missed the opportunity to buy as much they want to use this opportunity to buy and hold for the bullish market to come. What people experienced in 2018 is about to happen again in the community, because many people are panicking about the current price situation which is for the favour of investors not to miss this season than to be part of those that will celebrate later when the price hit back $50,000. I believe, this price will not fall more than $22,000 because there are some people waiting for the price to fall back to $10,000 before they can buy and hold for better future to come.

I believe another golden opportunity to Buy the DIP, and HODL is almost near.

"They can buy this DIP right now, then DCA when it touches the 200-week SMA line, which could happen as early as July, or August.", https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.60172392

There will be predictions of "Bitcoin to $10,000, or possibly lower", but zoom out. Bitcoin has NEVER stayed long under its 200-week SMA line for a long period of time. Can it trade below that? Yes it can. Should you place bids? Why not. BUT, just be sure to bid near over, and under Bitcoin's 200-week SMA. It's currently $22,375.

I was merely speaking metaphorically after seeing you DCA from $60,000 going down to $30,000, which from a sanity-preserving standpoint, it's honestly very impressive.

On another topic, the IMF wrote a white paper about Bitcoin, and Corruption and Capital Controls, to which they concluded that,


 I believe the truth is, it's actually corruption that creates the demand for technologies like Bitcoin.

I know that we touched on this topic previously - but I believe that it bears repetition.

1) referring to me as a whale comes off a bit strange.

Since I have been into bitcoin since 2013, I have been trying to set up ways to protect my portfolio since about late 2015... so I established a system to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and so the amount of sales had always meant to be small amounts so that they were largely just providing downside insurance and not really attempting to accomplish much more than that.  Initially I had likely allowed myself to sell a bit more than 1% of my holdings for every 10% the BTC price rose, but later, the percentage of the amount sold would end up being closer to 0.5% for every 10% rise.  I am not even going to proclaim that I had not made quite a few mistakes in the visions of the strategy and even the employment of the strategy, but in some sense there had been allowances to be able to build values and to stack on both ends in such a way that on the way up, you never run out of BTC and on the way down you never run out of fiat.

Through practice, there are ways to figure out to make spreads larger and even NOT to buy back so much in order to better and better prepare for worse case scenarios and therefore never to run out of fiat to buy back.

If I only have $1,000 to spread out over 20 orders, then I am only going to be able to buy back $50 for each of the orders.  So merely having a lot of buy back orders does not automatically mean that the amounts add up to a lot of money.. and I never proclaimed what the amounts of my buy backs were - except that I was attempting to be strategic about making sure that I maintain them

2) There is no unlimited capital from someone like me, even if you might have the sense that I have unlimited capital because I maintain buy orders down as far as I do.  It seems that it has taken me years to be able to get to the point to be able to establish maintaining orders and without running out of money.  However, if the BTC price crashes 50% from here (which would be nearly down to $14k), then based on my current set up, I run out of money at $19k don't I?  That's far from unlimited.

3) Even if you refer to yourself as a poor pleb, the question likely is merely about management of what funds that you have... so yeah, if you believe that you have less, so instead of having $1k, you only have $100, then you either might have to make smaller buy orders or to spread them out more.  I recall some exchanges have lower limits too..   I also recall when I started out trading, and the BTC price was $250, and I would sell a few dollars worth and then buy back a few dollars, one of my friends would laugh and laugh and laugh at me, because I said that I made $.06 on the trade, and I think that part of my point is both working with what you have and also setting up a structure that you likely get bigger and bigger, but you cannot necessarily rush getting BIGGER before you are ready...so you work with what you got.. and try to follow a system that makes sense and is profitable (and you have to account for fees too in terms of both figuring out if you are in profits, and if the whole matter was worth it).  It feels good to be able to set up a whole structure all the way down, even if the amounts are small.. so it could be the case that if we end up getting into the lower $20ks, then I might decide to take an additional $100 or $1k out of my bank, and spread my buy orders down to $10k, so the mere fact that I would then have buy orders going all the way down to $10k does not mean that I have unlimited resources or that I am a whale, but merely that I have budgeted my set up in such a way in order to be able to maintain buy orders down as far as I believe is possible for the BTC price to go.. even in the most extreme of circumstances.

No it didn't, but there's always the possbility that it can touch it ever so slightly, which could give plebs like me a golden opportunity for another good entry. Bitcoin might be in a phase of "$29,000 is the new $6,000 of 2018". Plus there's a time for FOMO, there's a time for finding good entries. It's very obvious that it's a time to find good entries. It might not matter for whales with unlimited capital like you, but for poor plebs like me it does.

Yeah.. I already figured that you would reach more bearish calculations than me, and like I already mentioned, I was a bit surprised that my numbers did not come out more bearish than they did - yet I cannot figure out any way to really change the numbers in any kind of meaningful amount.. at least not at the moment.. sure I could tweak them a bit, but they are not too far off of the numbers that I had given. and attempting to do the best that I can based on attempting to put somewhat reasonable numbers approximating my sentiments.

Sure, there is some correlation with the Fed's action, but as you likely already know, I am not too much of an ascriber to bitcoin having to follow whatever dumb shit the fed is doing, not doing or announcing that it is doing.... bitcoin will go along with whatever various markets do, until it doesn't... so you don't want to be in the pickle of assigning more correlation to bitcoin than actually exists.



I doubt that we really need to know in advance in regards to all of the details because sometimes shit just happens to happen... and if you are just focused on talking yourself down, then you are focusing on one direction more than you should be, and sure of course, you are giving justification for why you are assigning more bearishness than I am.. but I cannot really see your explanations are really causing me to want to tip my numbers more than I already have accounted for those kinds of matters and given them the amount of weight that I believe they deserve in the whole context of matters.

Take April 2019 for example.  Sure, we had a downward plunge in BTC prices in November/December 2018 from $6k-ish to $3k-ish that caused a lot of people (including yours truly) to presume that we were going to get 9 months or longer of down and/or stagnant BTC prices, but over the next few months, we got little gravitation of BTC prices up to $4k, and by the end of March 2019, we were getting a wee bit above $4k, and by time April 1 came, we started to get movement from $4,200 up to $13,880 - which took a few months to play out, and the whole thing was surprising because many of us did not believe such a pump was in the cards.. and we end up getting 3.5x price appreciation in 3 months.

I am not even suggesting that anything close to April 2019 is in the current cards, but there can end up being some variation of that, including momentum that starts to bud. and pretty soon the momentum is building upon itself, and no one is really clear about from where such momentum is coming (because it had been previously unknown), even though the momentum is there and seeming to materialize out of nowhere.

Another thing is that sure the circumstances of late 2018 and now are not the same as the circumstances today, so some of the actual circumstances can end up cutting both ways in terms of what was the previous price appreciation (referring to 2017) and how did the drop end up playing out, and then also accounting for macro circumstances then as compared with macro circumstances now.. for sure macro-circumstances now are more dire, yet again, I am not so keen to be assigning high values to macro-circumstances.. which to me has fucked up a lot of people in the past when they are trying to correlate bitcoin with macro-factors and the stock market and blah blah blah.. and bitcoin ends up doing a kind of step up out of the blue and they naysayers end up wondering what the fuck happened to their short or their failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately prepare themselves for UP and then become bitter over the whole matter.. and more stubborn in their wedding their lil selfies to no coiner status.

There are other examples besides April 2019 - including March 2017.. so much doom and gloom in the air with BTC prices at around $1k (with a recent previous correction down to $850), and there were proclamations that the BIG players are not coming in until BTC prices correct down to below $500 (Vinny Lingham and others making these kinds of convincing claims)..and we ended up getting no correction, just a gravitation up to $2k to $3k through the next 4-5 months and then kind of getting stuck sub-$3k until the fork bullshit ended up resolving... but still a lot of negativism through the whole year of 2017, even while BTC prices continued to go up.. in spite of so many theories of top and need to go down and blah blah blah.  

So you can compare and contrast all that you like in terms of giving rationale to why you believe that down is more likely than up in terms of the level of certainty that you have, and sure you may end up being correct.. but I hope you are not putting too many eggs in that basket.. and hopefully you have not been preparing for UP during our current downity gravitations and current feelings of doom and gloom.. and sure even I am conceding a bear market until we get out of this crap... but I am not failing/refusing/delaying to adequately/sufficiently prepare for UP in the event that the bottom might be already in... even if it is a bit of a minority view, currently.


I don't have any problem with making sure that you are prepared for down.. It's just a matter of how much prepared for down that you feel that you need to be and how much you might be holding off for lower prices without potentially taking any actions right now.

Sure each of us have differing situations, and even I had to change some of my preparations once the BTC price dropped below $35k and it did not seem to be a mere blip.

So if you might have remembered, I had buy orders that had been set at about $1k increments all the way down to about $20k.. and sure, I have been buying on the way down since around $60k with some kind of similar increments of $1k all the way down from $60k-ish to $30k-ish...

If you recall, once the BTC price went below $35k on May 7th, it had taken about two days (by May 9th) to get down from $35k to $30k, so all of my buy order that were in $1k increments were filled between $35k and down to $30k.. so then at that point.. maybe around the 10th of May or so, I began to reconsider both the increments between my buy orders and the amounts of each of my remaining BTC buy orders between $20k and $29k, and I ended up both cancelling those BTC buy orders and restructuring the incremental spread amounts to make the spreads larger - something in the ballpark of between $1.5k and $2.5k spread increments to allow me to account for possible sticking points that I perceived could exist at various price locations).  At the same time, I considered the overall amount of cash that I had already dedicated to those buy orders and other cash that I have, and I concluded that I should add a bit more cash to the overall amounts and therefore to all of the buy orders overall on the way down, and I also placed the buy orders down a wee bit further (bringing the buy order down from the lowest being at $20k-ish to having the lowest buy order at $19k-ish)...   

After I reset and adjusted those various buy orders on about the 10th of May, then in the next couple of days, the BTC price ended up dropping again and the BTC price went down to about $25,410 on the 12th, and I had two of my adjusted buy orders execute between May 10 and May 12th because of the BTC price drop during that period.

So part of my point is that I am attempting to describe adjustments that I had made that were meant to have been making attempts to both account for my own situation (my views and my finances and my psychology) and to account for what I had considered that the overall BTC price dynamics to have had transitioned into a bit more bearish circumstances, but still without putting all of my eggs into any kind of expectation that BTC prices have to reach any kind of further DOWNity threshold before they are able to go up.  So in that regard, there should be ways that any of us should be able to attempt to create psychological and financial preparations for the BTC price to go in either direction without overly-weighing in one direction or another (or engaging in too much gambling) but still attempting to create some level of financial and psychological comfort to be able to accept whichever direction the BTC price might end up going and to account for both our assignment of probabilities to the situation (including any reassessment that should not necessarily cause too many dramatic of changes) and to prepare for possible extremes that could end up happening in either price direction as well.. and to account for timeline considerations in which the various scenarios could end up playing out, too.  

Another thing that you already mentioned Wind_FURY is that it could take several months and you are even suggesting a year or longer (which seems like way too out of touch from my perspective... but whatever) for the bottom for this particular overall correction wave to play out, and surely there are ways to still account for the possibility of the passage of time both in terms of accounting for the 200-week moving average (which is currently at $21,951) still continues to move up at nearly $30 per day.. which causes it to become less and less likely that BTC prices will either go below it or stay below it for any kind of meaningful time, if they were to go below it. 

While at the same time, never say never, even though historically we have not had too many breaches of the BTC price below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time.... even for more than a couple weeks, at most... that's BTC price history.. but still not guaranteed, even though it seems reasonable and prudent to consider those kinds of possible extremes and whether there might be plausible scenarios in which those kinds of extremes might end up getting breached this time around.

Even given my own desires to attempt to prepare for extremes that could happen, I still find it a bit problematic that so many people (or would they be called BTC price pundits?) consider that BTC prices have to go down to the 200-week moving average merely because we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at about $35,500)... yeah, odds have become decently higher than they had been previously that BTC prices will go down to touch the 200-week moving average, and personally, I doubt that the odds of the BTC price going down to touch the 200-week moving average have become greater than 50/50, so it seems a bit absurd to proclaim that we have to go down to the 200-week moving average merely because maybe the odds had gone up from 25% to 40% or some other more reasonable approximation of what the odds are rather than what they are wished to be.

I'm probably more bearish than you for 2022, and 2023. Although yes, I'm biased because of the pattern we experienced in the past, BUT with the Fed's rate hikes and tightening of the balance sheet, I believe it might validate the bias.

Plus where will the inflows come from? Many plebs, and other ordinary investors like us have no more dry powder/will need to save. Institutional investors are having their own bear cycle in the legacy markets. In fact, some ordinary investors in cryptocurrencies might start selling to, pay for their expenses which are becoming more expensive because of inflation, or simply to sell and look for other investments.


Still sounds as if you are assigning pretty high odds that there is going to be a touching of the 200-week moving average.

You do also realize that the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up (so long as the BTC spot price stays above it)?

right now, with BTC prices right around $30k, we are about 27% above the 200-week moving average.

Of course, some folks might buy on the dip, as well.. including buying at various increments between this current price and where they anticipate the 200-week moving average to be by the time the spot price hits it.. that is if it hits it or if it even goes lower than the $25.4K-ish that it already hit.