Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 548. (Read 122846 times)

It’s you who have been beating that horse to death. I’m merely here just encouraging everyone, especially plebs like me, to Buy the DIP, and HODL, because it’s what I have been doing since I opened this topic.

Have we beaten this horse to death including discussions of the various considerations that cause various methods to have a lot more benefits?  

In the end, individuals need to plug those considerations into their own situation, so for example if they have a cashflow or lump sum available and how close are they to their targets including that if we are frequently discussion the situations of newbies who have little information about bitcoin versus someone who has been in the space for a while.  

Likely some other factors too that cause the various methods to be better or worse, including that there might not need to be all or nothing, either in terms of chosen method or a combination of methods.. but if there is all or nothing, then DCA tends to be recognized to check off a lot more considerations in terms of newbies and just getting started with any investment (bitcoin of course)... and of course, works with other investments too, even though our focus in this thread is bitcoin specifically.

I never “proclaimed” anything, it was you who kept on posting that DCA is superior, and everything else is inferior. I was merely saying that waiting, and buying low by buying the DIP has its advantages too, than blindly buying every week/month/quarter at any price.

I have some doubts about whether you even read or understand what I have repeatedly written.

Sure we do seem to have a difference of opinion regarding whether DCA (Dollar cost averaging) or buying on dip is preferable, and so in that regard, we seem to be understanding one another.  I say DCA is preferable and more basic and you say that buying on dip is preferable.  So we differ in perspectives regarding that. 

Let me frame this another way.  I am asserting if you were going to ONLY employ one of the techniques, then it is better to employ DCA because buying on dips is a more advanced and likely leads to greater errors.  You have your various reasons for proclaiming that DCA is worse and I see no need for me to reiterate your claims because you have already done that.

One area in which I believe that you are creating a strawman in terms of your ongoing attacking of my position and your seeming hostility towards it is that you seem to be suggesting that I am 100% against buying on dips, which is clearly not correct.  I have repeatedly claimed that the three methods of accumulating BTC (DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips) can be performed in various ways, and DCA remains the superior of the three methods for the vast majority of normies because they tend to not have lump sums available that they can straight out invest and there are too many difficulties figuring out when there is a dip, how much of a dip is enough dip and accordingly how to structure exactly the buying on dip aspects.  Merely because I continue to repeat that DCA is superior and continue to repeat that both lump sum investing and buying on dips are inferior does not in no way suggest that i do not agree with their strategic employment as likely supplements to DCA investing.

Snap out of it.. Wind_FURY... I am not talking about all or nothing thinking in regards to the matter.. even if I continue to repeat for the vast majority of normies there are a number of ways that DCA is preferable.. and you continue to disagree..for your own personal reasons.. which also might demonstrate why you tend to get so nervous from time to time regarding how BIG any dip might happen to be and what you should do in response to such dip.  If you were employing (or supplementing) with DCA, you may well reduce some of your anxieties in regards to various BTC price dips along the way and also trying to figure out what to do.  perhaps?  perhaps?  Should we get into some structuring of strategies details to attempt to make some of these structuring ideas more concrete? 

Maybe get back to the example of the newbie who has $12k of lump sum and $1k per month of extra cash flow that all can be (and is authorized to invest in BTC).  How you going to structure those values at this particular time and at this particular price?  What you going to do with the $12k?  and then how you going to play the $1k per month?  Tell me?  Let's get into particulars rather than just proclaiming that one system is superior to another and blah blah blah.  Tell us with particulars how to do it Wind_FURY.  Go on.  I have already outlined it with particulars several times, but let's hear it from you.  go on.  This hypothetical guy has no BTC, has authorized investing into BTC in accordance with the above numbers.  So we need suggestions that cause action (no?), not just waiting around for someone or the market conditions to tell us what is a dip, how much is good and blah blah blah.  Several times in the past, you have given suggestions that just told us to wait.. yeah right?  I don't agree with that kind of a strategy, especially if the guy in front of us has no BTC... and that's what we are talking about when we mention a newbie coming into BTC.. he has no BTC, so what does he do to act rather than just throwing out vague theories.

All investors of course expect a buy dip, but for now and the trend going forward it is difficult for us to determine the value of the dip, this is because the price continues to rise and does not drop like what happened last July which reached levels below $30k, I believe the value bitcoin's low after hitting new ATH a few days ago won't be below $50k.

Buying the DIP, inferior? Debatable. But telling everyone to buy at LOW and DISCOUNTED prices, “erroneous thinking”? WRONG.

DCA from a psychological perspective is harder, and make pleb-investors make more mistakes than buying the DIP at discounted prices.

I believe that it is safer to attempt to frame the whole bitcoin price performance matter a bit differently.

Of course, so far in bitcoin's history, we have never (I mean never) seen any BTC price that is lower 4 years later - however, for sure, I personally am not asserting that we can rely upon such pattern continuing to happen.  Whenever we invest into something, whether it is bitcoin or any other asset, we have to attempt to do our best in terms of assessing the asset and learning along the way.. and of course, if we also assess ourselves and our own financial circumstances, then our investment plan and the balancing of the strategies that we execute will be an attempt to best reflect both our own financial (and psychological) circumstance into our plan...

So our view of bitcoin and it's likely future performance is ONLY one aspect that we are attempting to calculate and/or balance.. and our view of bitcoin could become stronger or weaker with the passage of time, too..  One of the aspects of bitcoin that seems to make it such a great investment is that it has a pretty strong asymmetric bet component, and more and more people seem to be learning about the asymmetric bet angle of bitcoin which also helps to contribute to more likelihood that the upside angle will end up getting filled... so in that regard, even if you end up putting a small amount into bitcoin, you could still end up getting decently high returns.. even though none of those returns are guaranteed, they are just based on probabilities.

By the way, there have been a lot of people who have fucked up their bitcoin bets in the past based on their own mistakes, and they screwed up even though we can look back at bitcoin's history and see that almost everyone who invested in bitcoin should be in profits so long as they were mostly just attempting to accumulate BTC - rather than engaging in more sophisticated techniques to use leverage or to try to trade (sell and buy back lower)..so historically most BTC HODLers did not even really need to engage in risky tactics in order to have been able to benefit greatly from merely just taking reasonable and persistent steps to ongoingly continue to buy BTC... part of my problem with any kind of pure buying on dips strategy is that there are decent chances that anyone employing such strategies may well end up under investing or even psyching themselves into waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just regularly buying.... Of course, buying regularly can be supplemented with buying on dips, and I see no problem with that, so long as you are not overly cheating yourself out of the employment of buying regularly strategies.

Furthermore, even if you attempt to employ a pretty damned assertive strategy in terms of studying your own circumstances and studying bitcoin, it could still take you many years, just to figure out both bitcoin and to figure out your own circumstances, and personally, I am suggesting that it is way better to just get started into the employment of a reasonable and prudent plan while you continue to study your own circumstances and plan along the way and likely you will end up tweaking along the way too...

Just to point out all of the categories that you should both study but act to get in order and improve upon with the passage of time, if you can would be your cashflow, your other investments, your view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your skills, time and abilities to plan, learn and research along the way to tweak your plans from time to time and to consider whether you will want to employ more advance techniques (besides and beyond DCA) that would include trading, leveraging or the use of various financial instruments... I personally suggest to NOT use more advanced techniques until you have a pretty decent handle upon what you are doing in regards to the more basic techniques first... and like I already mentioned, since bitcoin has been and remains such an asymmetric bet there may well be no need to attempt to employ more advance techniques that may well cause you to underperform the following of the more basic of techniques.  In that regard, there are people who could have gotten rich as fuck in 5-10 years in bitcoin by just following basic techniques, but they end up both underperforming and getting distracted into nonsense and desires to attempt to rush the process in terms of getting greedy.

Everything I read in your post here is true, and I mean, take advantage of buying when the bitcoin price is in the Red Zone gradually.
and i always do and all that to grow my holdings for the long term, as said for 4 years or so because the future of bitcoin is always bright and going forward never backwards.

It's not only possible that BTC prices are moving up (in spite our recent 15% correction from $67,010 to $58,100).. it is quite likely that we are still in the UP portion of this particular 4-year cycle.. and of course, nothing is guaranteed... ..

One thing is caring about being profitable in this particular cycle (or even in the next 4 years), versus investing for the longer term such as 4 years to 10 years or more... For sure in the shorter term there are quite a few uncertainties about the various ups and downs of price in the process... and there might not be very much need to get too preoccupied about whether your BTC portfolio is profitable so long as you are accumulating BTC and looking towards investing in the longer term... so part of the reason that I had mentioned to WIND_FURY that buying on the dip is less important is because guys who employ such strategy might end up with less (rather than more) bitcoin and also get preoccupied with short-term noise..... so for example it may not have made any BIG difference if your average cost per coins that you accumulated in 2014-2016 were $500 or $800 per coin, especially if you would have been consistently buying and maybe even ended up spending more money on bitcoin through accumulating regularly.

We can project 5-7 years into the future, and sure maybe the BTC price will not be really high, and of course the lower our average cost per BTC might help the amount of our profitability... that is if bitcoin prices might be dipping into sub $100k prices in 5-7 years or if some other price points end up playing out.  Part of the calculation continues to be whether we are considering short-term or long-term.. and how we might want to balance the cash that we have available (such as lump sum investing) while considering that we may also have a cashflow that is regularly coming in to consider whether we hold some of it to buy on dips, or lump sum invest with it and/or to have a system that includes dollar cost average investing along the way too...   Each guy needs to balance these factors for himself and based on his various personal circumstances.

Bitcoin price decline is a natural thing to happen and we should not think negatively that this is the end of the trend, and the current movement of bitcoin is still very positive and to go back to 50k in my opinion is impossible.

it's best to take the opportunity when the bitcoin price is in the Red Zone to make a purchase because this is a good time to buy it and grow ownership and hold it, because it is still very possible to move new ATH to new ATH again.

Yes.. and that comment highlights our different perspectives regarding the matter.. including that buying the dip is inferior to DCA.. but you can believe whatever fantasies that you like...  and perhaps that works for you.. I cannot speak for some people having gambling inclinations...

In any event, hopefully you do not lure too many innocent people into such erroneous thinking that causes them to inadequately prepare themselves for UP by gambling too much, being greedy... or into believing that picking pennies up in front of a steam roller is a sufficient and adequate strategy if their is both a goal to accumulate BTC and to be adequately and sufficiently prepared for UP (which includes preparing financially and psychologically).

Buying the best-maximum DIP you can “time” has always been the most efficient method to get maximum profit from our limited capital as plebs. We may get it wrong, but I believe it’s better than blindly buying at any price point.

Your message is coming through, and I still hate the idea of trying to time any kind of maximum dip..  but I have been doing this for a while too...

In late 2020 and into early 2021, I had staggered buy orders that went down to $9k.. but as the price continued to stay up, and also I had a few business deals, I removed some of those lower ended buy orders, and they only go down to $24k.. and ideally, I believe that I should have buy orders going down to the 208-week moving average, which is currently at about $17k.  I am thinking that I will just wait it out and hopefully attempt to maintain my buy orders down to $24k... .. the 208-week moving average will come up to that price.. sooner or later.

On the other hand, even though I have those buy orders down to that level, I am having some troubles considering that we will be going much below $55k in this cycle.. sure maybe we will get a spike and sure maybe we will get prices below $50k.. .. so for any of us, we need to assess where we are at on the spectrum of accumulation then maintenance then liquidation... so if any of us are heavily into accumulation, we should not be waiting for dips that might not happen, but if we are largely into a maintenance stage, then we can afford to spread out our buy orders way more liberally.  In other words, balance where you are at in terms of considering how much you are adequately prepared for UP in the event that neither sub-$50k happens or that prices do not dip much if any more from here (currently with a local low of $58,100 from about 8 hours ago as I type this post (and prices bouncing within the $58ks and lower $59ks in the past 8 hours, too)...


You seem to be describing a preference for DCA rather than buying the dip (a dip that might not happen), Kodok Bencot.. In other words, it seems to me that DCA is better than buying the dip.. but each of us can determine the extent that we want to attempt to incorporate both techniques into our BTC accumulation strategies.

Buy dip is the best technique to get maximum profit, if you look at the current price of course it is difficult to see the price of bitcoin dip again, maybe the dip price will never be below $50k again so if we keep waiting then we will get more expensive prices, more better buy immediately at the current price and hold for the long term.

You missed the trade? You had an opportunity to buy lower than $50,000, but didn’t buy? Hating yourself?

Watch this. Bitcoin will NEVER EVER EVER trade under $50,000 EVER EVER again!

Place your bids near the prices under $50,000, thank me later.

JayJuanGee, I agree with the points you made above, especially in what I bolded. A person with insufficient mentality and knowledge may never want to buy bitcoin when the price is down because the downside risk will continue. I'm in several trading groups on Facebook and also on Telegram and I see so many people hesitate to buy when the price is down just because they consider the risk. They tend to buy when there is something positive like good news than when bitcoin is undergoing a correction and exposed to FUD news. So I think it would be correct to say that buy on dips won't suit everyone.

I would not conclude that everyone knows when to buy or when to sell BTC, and this thread is not really about selling anyhow, it is about buying and attempting to accumulate BTC.,. and yes.. BTC.. we are not talking about shitcoins here.. so your reference to choosing a coin or "this industry" is vague.. we are talking about bitcoin.. not about various projects that might be all over the place in terms of various other possible considerations, especially in regards to their fundamentals..

Of course, I have continued to express a bit of a tension in regards to DCA (dollar cost averaging) being a better strategy than buying on the dip because it can be quite difficult to determine or establish how much of a dip is enough of a dip, so my assertion has been that if you are in any kind of accumulation stage for bitcoin to establish a system in which you are buying regularly and all the time, no matter the BTC price - at least until you reach your BTC accumulation goals (which you have to establish for yourself what those BTC accumulation targets are for you).  

I am not against buying on dip as a way to supplement DCA as a strategy, even though I do believe that DCA tends to be a superior and more basic strategy, and buying on dip is a more advance strategy and still some folks can establish various systems to figure out how to buy on dips, but I will argue and deny that buying on dip comes natural to anyone.  Buying on dips is a skill that needs to be learned and honed, even though some people might have better senses of how to employ such buying on dip systems than others...

This is why knowledge is very crucial and important because we can't just choose a coin and trust on it, pretty sure the results would be negative. Almost everyone on this platform knows when to trade and when not to do, there's also few that didn't know when to buy.
Yes there is a lot of opportunities in this industry but it's a challenge to crack a few and make money or profits on it. My advice is buy if you think that it's already dipping in your own knowledge and hold it to make profits in the future and be comfortable with you. Cause you would know by now when to buy or sell.

Warren Buffett was right during all this time, sers. Bitcoin IS rat poison squared. BUT Bitcoin is ATH, why? Because no one wants to be in the wrong side of history. Because the wrong side is the losing side, the side where the rats are.

When your trusted chairman of the FED changes the narrative to calm the public down, and protect themselves in case everything goes wrong.



“Inflation is good”, sers. You know what you should be doing. Buy the DIP, and HODL.