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I simply wanted a discussion.
Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.
What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.
The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.
2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.
Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb... and many of us are vary happy with our bitcoin investments, whether BTC over or underperforms models, such as the stock to flow model, and so times like these (when the BTC price is dropping quite deeply), there can be questions about what to do? Do I buy on the dip, do I hold or do I sell? And hopefully people are smart enough NOT to sell, but surely when the price is dropping, we know that there are more sellers than buyers, so in that regard the price would not be dropping without sellers... so some people believe that it is the right move to sell some or all of their coins.
In any event, there is nothing wrong with having a vision regarding where the bitcoin price might be in the next four year halvening cycle (which would be 2024 to 2028), but of course, we have to get through the rest of this four year period following the halvening first to see if the Stock to Flow model underperforms during this period, whether such underperforming (if it were to happen) needs to influence the model in terms of either tweaking or invalidating it... If you are wedded to absolutes, then it seems as if you are referring to your own dumbass interpretation of the model (including maybe following some dweebs on twitter and saying that you believe that they are smart and therefore, you want to listen to what they are saying about the stock to flow model blah blah blah.. maybe just some fantasy ways of interpreting such model)...
Who doesn't want to buy from Dip. This can reduce your risk. Moreover, if you buy from any asset from dip, it can easily increase your asset later. Bitcoin is in terrible moment today but it will be in good condition or regain the full force with in short of time. If your purchasing skills and circumstances are favorable then of course it is not right to miss that opportunity.
I have buy orders set down every $1k down to $20k.. but it is not like I really even want then to fill.. I would prefer that the price goes up....
Many of us are merely plebs. We don’t have as much capital as you, which is why it’s more practical for us to actually try to buy the DIP.
Don't be ridiculous. We have talked about some of these concepts before. You get so caught up in assumptions about supposed capital that some people might have versus other people, and of course, there are differences in terms of people who have been investing all of their lives and people who may well be in their earlier stages of investment. I would hope that people with more investment experience have built up capital, but their success in building up capital should not disqualify them from being able to understand the better ways to build up capital and to comment on those kinds of strategies, even if they might not be currently employing those strategies because they are already beyond the earliest of wealth building strategies.
I know that I keep repeating that the best strategy is DCA with an amount that is reasonable for you.. whether it is $5 per week or $100 per week or some greater amount if you can afford it. ... however, you want to continue to assert that you are so smart.. and that you have sat on your hands in the past, and you still believe that waiting for a better price is a better strategy.. and I say fuck that nonsense..., Of course, you can play around with part of your budget in terms of waiting, but establish a reasonable DCA strategy with a reasonable amount of your budget, too... Yeah, of course, you can do what you like, but to be claiming that you know better about timing comes off as quite pretentious.. and if you really believe that you know that the BTC price will go down further.. which is a bunch of bullshit..
The last 8 years since I have been in BTC there have been all kinds of people who have proclaimed to have been smarter than BTC and asserting that it has been going down and blah blah blah.. and sure, they can frequently be right until they are not.. and in those cases when BTC decides to reverse and to go up.. you have had better have been prepared for UP.. don't get greedy.. maintain practical ongoing preparations for UP, and it does not have to be your whole budget.. like I keep saying until I am blue in the face..... but no of course, Wind_FURY.. you are smarter than DCA... and you believe that you can time the matter, even though such timing of the matter has not worked for you in the past.. but this time you have it all figured out, right?
Furthermore, there can be some advantages in being in bitcoin longer in terms of having longer and longer to build up your orders (your buy orders and your sell orders and maybe even just being able to get ahead of the price in various ways to be able to play the BIGGER swings)... so if I am buying every time the BTC price drops $1,000 I am not saying how much I am buying, so it could be $5 each time, and that would be another $75 to get from our current price of $5k-ish down to $20k-ish ($5 each $1,000 drop adds up to 15 buy orders and $75)... Of course, the amounts that are bought each $1k drop could be larger amounts, so work with what you got in terms of strategizing the amounts of your DCAs, your increments and how far down you want to set such buy orders - whether they will ever fill or not and if you want to maintain them or not.
So even if you have complete discretion in establishing the strategies that you might want to employ in regards to regular buying of BTC and buying on dips, it's almost impossible to figure out the bottom of the dip, so I would suggest not wasting too much time on that strategy of trying to figure out the BTC bottom, unless it is merely supplementing some other DCA and more straight-forward and systematized buying on dip strategies that you might be employing.
By the way, as of this morning, I have had 6 BTC buy orders that have filled between $39k and $34k (so every $1k increment), and yesterday, I had realized that mostly I had set all of these buy orders in early September 2021 and the one at $39k-ish I had to reset in mid September 2021 because there was a dip that went down to fill the earlier $39k-ish buy order and so after the price went up above $46k in late September, that $39k-ish buy order was reset.... so much of my orders are already pre-set.. and I am not really in BTC accumulation stage anymore, I am in a kind of maintenance stage... but of course, if the BTC price drops more than 50% from $69k in November down to $34k so far... then for sure I end up accumulating more BTC.. .but it is not like I accumulate 50% more BTC.. I accumulate maybe 1% or 2% more at best in such a streak.. and if the BTC price goes back up to $69k, maybe I end up only having 0.5% more BTC than I had the first time around... perhaps? perhaps? it is not guaranteed where I am going to end up, even though I have a system that I have been following since about 2015 with some tweaks.. and I consider what I do to be maintenance and really modest in terms of attempts at capital preservation and ways of attempting to somewhat insure my BTC holdings.
Guys should be attempting to tailor to their approach to BTC to their situation... so they have to figure out how much they are still in the early stages of BTC accumulation or have they transitioned more into a kind of maintenance stage of their BTC portfolio management... for sure, there is a lot of attempts to target the discussion at guys who are likely in various accumulation stages.. because many of us have to go through such a stage..and can sometimes question whether we have quite graduated out of such stage.. especially when the BTC prices end up dropping so much (which great levels of volatility is a kind of inevitability in BTClandia, anyhow)..
Seems that we can attempt to build our BTC approach to structure what we do, and not get so tied up into figuring out how much of a dip there is going to be, even though it is hard not to watch it in various ways, especially when extremes seem to be happening.
I know Wind_FURY that you had been proclaiming that you had fucked up a few times in the beginning in NOT beginning to DCA into BTC when you first got into the forum in mid-2016, so at what point did you stop screwing up might merely be something that you can consider in terms of your own situation and maybe how much BTC to continue to accumulate.. presuming that you have not gotten out of BTC accumulation stage yet.
No one is saying that any of these matters are easy in terms of if you have various expenses, and you are trying to figure out how much extra cash that you have on a regular basis and how much to use for buying BTC right away versus waiting for a further dip, in the event such a sip happens. Part of the reason that I described a structuring down of outstanding buy orders every $1k down to $20k, is not to proclaim how rich I am, because you surely do not need to be rich at all in order to employ such a strategy, but the level of your cash flow is going to help you to determine how much you might want each of your buy orders to be, if you are comfortable to place some kind of buy order down every $1k down to $20k.
Also, don't get me wrong. I have no desire for the BTC price to go down, and I could give less than two shits about buying more BTC below $42k, but what choice did I have? In recent years, I have found it psychologically helpful to me to maintain buy orders down to the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $19.2k and it moved up 132% in the last year.. which is amazing in itself), but my maintenance of buy orders down to the 208-week moving average does not mean that I want those buy orders to fill.
I believe if plebs want to wait for the lowest point of the market, it will probably during 2023, IF we are indeed in a bear market.
Hopefully people are not so dumb as to be waiting to buy BTC based on some nonsense about some supposed lower price point.. and yeah of course you are presuming a bear market.. and that may be a wee bit premature of a presumption.. but hey.. whatever you do you.
You seem to have fucked up before by not regularly buying in 2016 and thereafter, and you seem inclined to just repeat pretty much the same mistakes of your past, and you do this on an ongoing basis with your ongoing desires to wait rather than to figure out some reasonable ongoing buy amount.. and sure it does not have to be your whole budget.. you can save some for dips, in case they happen.. sure maybe you will make some of your historical mistakes less worse, but I doubt it.. especially since in bitcoin the best strategy has been DCA'ing because we cannot really know.. even though you want to presume a bear market.. and seems that you have done that several times before and failed to adequately and sufficiently buy BTC during those times that you thought that BTC might be in or going into a bear market.. In any event, does not seem to be a good strategy to be waiting around instead of just buying regularly with a meaningful amount (even if it is only part of your available BTC budget).
In other words, like I said, the best strategy is to figure out a reasonable DCA amount and to do that every week.. $100 per week is a good target. Another thing is that once you establish a reasonable DCA strategy, then of course, you can hold some additional amounts for buying on dips... and of course, how you divide those amounts are within your discretion to figure out what you believe might be better for you and your situation in terms of both psychology and finances.. and of course, I have been an advocate of time in the market rather than trying to time the market.. especially when it comes to BTC.
Of course, we have not guarantees where BTC price might be going, even if we can look back and see where the price had been, but just in the case of someone like yourself, there are ways that a $100 per week strategy, and maybe even some lump sum investing along the way, would put you well over 15 BTC by this time and merely investing around $31k during that time. For sure, buying in 2016 and early 2017 would have gotten you the most bang for the buck in terms of front loading possibilities, but even if you had just DCA'ed at 100 per week, you could have pretty easily gotten yourself into supra 15 BTC territories by now, and that kind of an amount is nothing to sneeze at... even if the investment would have been somewhat modestly aggressive.... so of course, if we cut down the amount by 10 and say that you did not have enough money to be able to invest $100 per week, then the amount of the profits would be cut by 10 also.. so instead of being in the supra 15BTC territory, you would be in the 1.5BTC territory.. with an investment of $10 per week instead of $100 per week.
