Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 545. (Read 122877 times)

I believe the cycle ends not with the top being in but with the bubble/bubble-burst duo not happening again. If we end up seeing a massive rise in a short time (to my favorite top: $400k) then it would still be the same cycle. But I think what would happen is that with all these smaller dips, we will end up seeing that same top farther down the line (maybe by the end of 2022) and by that time there won't be any kind of bubble or the subsequent bubble burst, just a new big number that people would be used to seeing by then. The same way they are used to seeing 5 digits in price today but they couldn't even fathom it a couple of years ago.

Sure, it's just that the older the model the more credible it is. I always wondered whether it has predicted previous cycle and is going to predict this one or if it just came to existence after the previous one. It looks like it is the later.
The model is still a good one in my opinion, the problem (which exists with any future analysis) is that they can not factor in the human behavior. For example nobody could have predicted the pandemic and the global financial effects of it that would also temporarily affect bitcoin. Or the drama with miners or a lot of other factors that may have postponed the end of cycle blow off top. Which is one of the reasons why I would like to wait a month or two before I can really tell what direction the market goes and whether the "cycle days" or over.

You seem to want to assert that the S2F model is not really telling us anything, which surely is not the case.

The model seems to be pretty heavily data driven in terms of plotting out historical prices and then attempting to project in advance... so I hardly give any shits if it ends up being correct or not, but it still seems to be amongst the best of the models, and surely I like to emphasize 4-year fractal as a separate model (that is already largely contained within stock to flow) and also exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles to be supplementing S2F's outline of what has happened to get us to where we are and where it points.... so to continue to assert chaos.. then that seems to be poo-pooing the value that comes from the theories asserted in the model.

In other words, there are all kinds of folks, including yourself, who seem to want to invent some kind of sorcery assertion without even accounting for what the most convincing models are asserting, including stock to flow.. so yeah, you can randomly say the world is random while at the same time inventing your own spin, and that's your choice if you want to downplay the ongoingly most relevant of underlying BTC price prediction models.

It merely emphasizes the point that “Predictive Models” will never hold any precise accuracy because the world is chaotic, and we are merely trying to find patterns in the middle the chaos.


Yeah the peak of 2016’s halving was later compared to the peak of 2012’s halving. Peak of 2020’s halving might also come months later.


I believe it was 2019.

Regarding the point of your last sentence about needing to watch BTC price moves in the event that you want to buy or "sell" it, we are not talking about selling bitcoin in this thread as a strategy to accumulate bitcoin.

There is discussion about buying on the dip in order to be able to attempt to get more bitcoin based on such dips that happen from time to time.... so sure there is a kind of presumption that we would be buying on dips because we expect the BTC price to go up at some point or maybe even to go up more in the long run - even though in the short run there might be a lot of bitcoin dips.

Surely there are a few advantages in buying on dips in terms of both getting a better price, but also there are ways in which guys may also be able to frame (account for) their bitcoin holdings in such a way that buying on dips ends up bringing down their average costs per BTC... in the event that they want to account for their whole BTC portfolio in that kind of way.

Of course, when I discuss accounting options, some of these kinds of concept can become confusing to people because sometimes there are some forms of accounting that might be required if someone were to have to report to a government agency (such as a tax authority), but it seems that if you want to potentially empower yourself from the buying and managing of your bitcoin holdings, then sometimes there might be ways that you can categorize your own holdings in ways that help to inform you about how you are going to manage your portfolio...

For example, I recall in mid-2015, I had been in bitcoin for a little over a year and a half, and when I started buying bitcoin in late 2013, my very first bitcoin purchase was a kind of private sale and it was 1.24 bitcoin's purchased at $1,500 (so that would be $1,200 per bitcoin)... so that first BTC purchase was for a decently high price, and by the time that mid-2015 had arrived, the BTC price had been bouncing around in the mid-$200s for a long time, and my overall purchasing of BTC at various points in time between late 2013 and mid-2015, had caused my average price per BTC to come down to around $520-ish, even though I started out at $1,200 (as mentioned above)... Also, it could be conceived that my overall BTC portfolio was valued in the negative by more than half if we were going by the then current price of around $250, so that would be something like a 48% valuation ($250/$520). 

For my own purposes of attempting to manage my BTC portfolio, I had decided to create a spreadsheet and to create three categories for my BTC holdings in order to help myself to figure out what I wanted to do with parts of my BTC holdings, so I ended up creating three categories.  One category was my overall BTC holdings, a second category were all the BTC that I had acquired between mid-2014 and mid-2015, and a third category were all the BTC that I had acquired under $300 (which had mostly happened between December 2014 and mid-2015). 

The first category had an average cost per BTC of $580-ish, the second category had a value of around $330-ish and the third category had a value of around $240-ish.  So, I used those BTC in the third category as a kind of formula to be able to sell a proportion of them between the price of $250 and $330, and once the BTC price got above $330, then i would be able to use my bitcoin in the second category (which also contained those BTC in the third category) to maintain another formula for being able to sell a portion of those BTC in the second category between $340 and $520.  Of course, if I were to continue to buy and sell some BTC while the BTC price ranged between $250 and $520, the overall price of my BTC holdings (those BTC categorized in the first category) would change with the passage of time, and my actual cost per BTC had come down to around $500 by the end of 2015. 

I bring up these ideas not in order to derail this thread into the idea of selling BTC, but instead to attempt to provide examples of how any of us might categorize aspects of our BTC holdings in order to attempt to accomplish goals that we want to accomplish or to justify some of our own treatments of our BTC holdings... which also can help to empower us into be able to act when we might not otherwise be able to act.... So for example, if I had ONLY categorized my BTC holdings in terms of my overall costs per BTC, then I might not be able to justify doing anything with my BTC until the BTC price were to go over the cost per BTC of my whole portfolio.. which was then $520 and slowly coming down with my additional BTC purchases.

Instead, I was able to formulate some self-authorized abilities to act to sell portions of my BTC between $250 and $520-ish based on ways of accounting for my BTC into three categories rather than one category.

Regarding how some of us might consider our BTC dips of the recent months, surely we had experienced a dip of about 39% if we conceive of the November 9 ATH at $69k, and the December 3 bottom of $41,967, so in the meantime we have largely been bouncing within the price range of about $44k and $52k, so then there could be some questions about at what points to buy in the dip.  So for example, some of us might have already bought down to $42k-ish, and we might have either been saving some cash to buy in case the BTC price dips more, but so far it has not dipped below $42k, but also another practical matter is that nearly a month has past since such dip and maybe we have been spending some additional cashflow to buy BTC at whatever price we are at, or we might be holding some of that money that is coming in so that we can buy on further dip, but surely if more money comes in, then that could justify either just buying at the current price or maybe NOT setting our price targets as low in order to buy again.  For sure those are not easy determinations regarding whether new cash coming in might cause justification to just buy at current prices or to change our BTC buying price targets.... yet the longer that we are in bitcoin, the more likely it seems that we should be able to develop some kinds of systems for ourselves regarding how much cash we want to be holding or would we rather to have some of that value in BTC, even if the BTC price might go down from here (presuming that we were to buy at the current price which is at a bit more than $49k as I type this post).


Of course, there can be both psychological and financial justifications to attempting to formulate some kind of a theory for ourselves regarding what we might consider to be amongst the most probable of short to medium term BTC price movements.. even tough for sure we cannot really know with any levels of certainty whether our tentative ideas are going to play out, so new data could help us to change our perceptions.

I do not consider myself to be so rigid in my expectations that a four year model has to perform within exact four year parameters in order to still be an influential factor in terms of overall BTC price dynamics, whether projecting out in the next few months or further out.  I last updated my projections regarding the timeline for our peak on December 16 (my views have not changed too much since December 16) - and so surely I give higher likelihood to the peak coming sooner rather than later, but still I consider that there are some likely blow-off dynamics that are still at play, so if we have not gotten any kind of blow off top, then I have harder times speculating that the top is in (even though as you seem to imply, pooya87) we do not necessarily need a blow off top for this cycle to be over, even though I would consider that to be of minority likelihood.. it is still possible even if it has low likelihood from my perspective.


Of course, the ideas behind PlanB's model had predated PlanB's publishing of the model, so it is not like he was saying anything really new, but he was presenting the matter in the form of having a kind of data set to back up those kinds of stock to flow ideas.  I had recently seen some kind of a tweet or discussion from PlanB in which he stated that he had first published his S2F data in March of 2019 - so it would have been just prior to our April 2019 price rise and so at the time that PlanB published the data the BTC price was then at least a whole standard deviation below expectations and even maybe getting into the 2 standard deviations below expectations.

Of course, the longer that the model is in existence, then there are more data points to put in there, so if the model was plotted out in 2015, there would have been fewer data points in order to have as much confidence in trajectoring out the idea into the future based on fewer data points.  So in some sense, pooya87, I am coming to the opposite conclusion to you in terms of the value of the model as time passes.  Of course, you seem to be suggesting that there is a kind of invention of the data aspect, so you seem to be emphasizing the projection aspect of the model rather than the value of having more time for the data points to help to inform the model. but sure. maybe there is an aspect of an early 2019 invention.. because that's when the projections were first made within that particular model and PlanB has largely just been inputting new data points with the passage of time (so in the last nearly 3 years since PlanB first published the model), he has been inputting data within the model to show mostly conformity.. but as far as I know, he has not shifted the curve or anything like that, even though there are a lot of folks who accuse him of moving the goal posts along the way - but seems that some of those folks are ongoingly convoluting his discussion of a floor model with his having had created the S2F model and asserting that we are still on-track with the S2F model.

I think we have some signs that the cycle is coming to an end but I probably wait until end of January or February to see what happens in the next 1-2 months in the market to decide. It is hard to say at this point.

By the way does anyone knows when they came up with the S2F model? Was it before 2018 or after it? For example if they had come up with it in 2015 that makes it somewhat interesting but not if they came up with it in 2018, that would be just silly lines drawn on history.

I agree and maybe everyone will do something like this, because that's the best way to do it. but it looks like the sign you're saying that bitcoin bullish, hasn't been seen and it's only the movement that has been since the last ath formed bitcoin did that. always rising rapidly and falling back down and it seems bitcoin already feels that at the current price it is the most comfortable and stable price.

what you say is certainly true, that buying bitcoins when the price continues to fall, but bitcoins do it very quickly because soon it goes up. bitcoin keep on moving like this, so you have to really pay attention to each movement before you want to buy or sell it.

Bitcoin is the most profitable investment asset I know since 2017, unchanged although some people can achieve greater returns on other assets. During the year, the buy dip is the most profitable time in the short term because the price will recover in some time either in a matter of hours or days. Of course many people doubted it when the correction occurred, but they will realize that today the price of bitcoin is again trading at $51K. Let's see if the $55K resistance will be broken in the next few days, it will be good.

It is a bit strange that you are providing a chart/prediction from June 2021 as if PlanB's then interpretation of his own S2F model and his floor model (which are two different models) was something that was necessary to harp upon in terms of trying to figure out where we are, how we got here and where we might be going.

You likely know my view, which largely has not changed in recent months.. including that PlanB had made some pretty strong assertions about his "floor model" around June 2021 that largely ended up playing out in July, August, September and October, but fell short of his floor model numbers in November and December.  In any event, it seems like a sort of BIG so what to me in terms of how one model or another might be used, and Plan B was asserting his various floor model numbers as if they had strong backings including that he was proclaiming those floor numbers to be backed by information in his S2F model.. so in that case, his two models and frameworks end up getting convoluted in the discussions, and surely I still appreciate his stock to flow model including that the four-year fractal remains one of bitcoin price dynamic influences as well as stock to flow and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and metcalfe principles.  

The various influences on bitcoin price dynamics including ongoing building network effects have not been changed in any kind of negative way in recent months (or years for that matter), and for me, the ongoing evidence remains quite strong that bitcoin continues to build, grow and get adopted in quite amazing ways which continues to put UPpity pressures on bitcoin's price, even if there have been built a lot of financial instruments that have come onto the overall financial scene to allow bitcoin's price to be manipulated downwardly and betted against, and how successful some of these financial tools might be to keep bitcoin's price down is still to be seen, and personally, I have a lot of doubts about their abilities to really keep the bitcoin's price down for extended periods of time, even if their are likely a lot of abilities to keep it down for decently long short periods of time.... so anyhow our various models about bitcoin price dynamics including stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and metcalfe principles should be able to help us to better figure out where we are, how we got here and where we might be going.. and these models and influences have not changed very much.. including your suggestion, Wind_FURY that some of our UPpity may well end up getting delayed into the 1st, 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2022.. and I would hardly even consider those kinds of dynamics to be breaking of the 4-year fractal, even if that aspect of bitcoin might be getting weaker since the amount of new bitcoin supply is serving as both a smaller amount of its already existing issued supply and the fact that it may well be getting more in and more into the consciousness of bitcoin (as a dynamic) that we already know more or less (except for not really knowing lost or inaccessible coins) what bitcoin's supply is going to be into the future.  Even with all of these various factors, we can also appreciate that there is no certainty in anything, even something that remains such an asymmetric bet such as bitcoin..

For sure bitcoin's ongoing investment thesis remains as strong as ever for those of us who are ready, willing and able to appreciate bitcoin for what it is, and even if we might not exactly be sure what bitcoin is there seem to be ongoing events around adoption and building of bitcoin in various ways that should continue to demonstrate that bitcoin's investment thesis these days may well be as strong as it ever has been, including that the downside scenarios are not as strong as they used to be and there are quite a few BIG status quo and traditionally investment rich folks who are increasingly getting into bitcoin, which surely seem to cause more UPwards pressures on the BTC price and justifications for the negative scenarios to have more difficulties in playing out.. sure there are always going to be negative information out there and negative scenarios that are being discussed, and for your own sake, hopefully you are not being talked out of too many of your bitcoin in such process.. .. either your failure refusal to prepare for UP or your selling too many too soon and expecting to buy back at a lower price (of course, I am not referring to you specifically, Wind_FURY), and it seems to me that it hardly even matters which of the bitcoin price prediction models has more influence than others, because there has never been strong abilities to predict short-term BTC price movements, even while we have always had some decent information to recognize and appreciate that in the longer term - such as 4 to 10 years or longer remains quite likely to be UP for our little friend, aka bitcoin.. from where ever we are at currently....

....no guarantees of course, but surely I can still not recognize any other broad-scale and generally applicable investment that would be as good as bitcoin in terms of what to be considering right now in terms of investing for 4-10 years or longer into the future and to reassess after investing (or even to reassess while investing is within the personal discretion of anyone who gets into bitcoin... .. Of course, any of us might be able to invest in various property or business matters that are particularly known to us, but bitcoin remains a very generally applicable investment that remains accessible to everyone on a world-wide basis (which has a lot of paradigm changing power in itself).. even though in bitcoin there can be some favoring of those persons who have some technical skills - especially if a person lives in an area of the world that might not have as good connections to the internet, which is also seeming to become less and less the case... in other words more and more people are gaining at least some ways to access the internet.. which would likely provide some benefits in ways for them to access bitcoin and then to attempt to maintain or manage their bitcoin once they figure out ways to either get into bitcoin or to get exposure to bitcoin's price.  For sure there is information asymmetry that goes on with bitcoin too, so there are still likely quite a few informational asymmetries that continue to exist, and so likely those of us who have already learned about bitcoin and have figure out various ways to get exposure to the bitcoin price (but also know about several of the powers of maintaining your own keys) .. we are going to be more empowered than some folks who have trouble understanding bitcoin or even recognizing the difference between bitcoin and various shitcoins or other distracting projects that are out there and potentially luring folks out of their money and distracting them from getting into bitcoin..

Maybe we should go back and start predicting the future with 2 lines on a chart.

Is the current halving’s cycle peak delayed, or has the cycle been broken. OR this model has probably reached the end of its predicitive potentials? Because no predictive model will be accurate forever. The world is full of unpredictability and chaos.

Fair enough.. .but do you want to invite those kinds of discussions here.

One thing is actually having freedom to do whatever you like in your portfolio.. another thing is including a slippery slope of such discussions into a thread (this one) that was meant to be focusing on bitcoin... in terms of the buy on dip and HODL strategies that you had wanted to emphasize in the beginning.

Buy in the Dip and Hold is indeed a very good and profitable strategy to enter into the current bitcoin market conditions. Even signs of Bitcoin Bullish have started to appear. Therefore, people who buy bitcoins when the price drops and hold will get a satisfying profit.

From an investment standpoint, trading Bitcoin to hold a more volatile shitcoin would be practical, IF the trader wanted to sell those shitcoins back to Bitcoin to HODL more Bitcoin. Everyone should be allowed to learn the hard way.

Fuck ether.

Don't buy that crap.

Furthermore this thread is not about the buying and HODLing of that shitcoin or any other shitcoin.

We all want to buy from Dip but it is a difficult thing to get. I noticed that when the price of ether was only $72 I couldn't even hold it because I was afraid it might go down further. ‍Now the current price $4000 now i thought it may come down even more. So when do I buy? For which I have to make a decision by doing market analysis and buy.

The signs are currently visible that it might be ending.


In the zoom-out-scheme-of-things, I believe you do not have to buy the “perfect DIP”. You only have to be ready to buy again in another large DIP to lower your dollar cost average.

First of all we are not talking about cryptocurrency.  Fuck that nonsense.

Second, as far as the decision that any of us could have whether to buy bitcoin or to wait it out, in the event that there might be more dip, then that should partly depend upon how much bitcoin you already have.  If you do not have any, you better get some right away and don't be waiting around.  On the other hand, if you have a lot of bitcoin, then whether there is a dip or not may not matter so much for you because you are already prepared for UP.

The more difficult question comes for those who are still in BTC accumulating stage and trying to maximize some of their stacking with their cashflow.... and surely I have no problem with trying to be strategic about some of your ongoing buys as long as you are already prepared for both up and down and whether you have a weekly or a monthly budget.. and as far as the end of this month and rest of this year goes, there is NOT much time left in that anyhow (10 days?), so it can be difficult to know in the short-term if BTC prices might move UP or down from here.. but surely we already had a 39% dip, and we are sort of bouncing in a about a 25% to 35% correction area in the past few weeks.. so is it going to last is the BIG questions for those folks attempting to be strategic about some of their cashflow as it relates to bitcoin purchases.

Right now the market is experiencing a drastic decline and there are no visible signs that the price decline will end soon, the cryptocurrency market continues to fluctuate and it is not uncommon for price corrections to occur suddenly and make some of us have to be patient to enter, I personally will probably wait the drop hit its lowest point this month before actually getting into the market and buying up some cryptocurrencies.

DIPs are still for buying. Stop feeding the whales your sats, OK? They have already front-run us the plebs, and they are already very fat in Bitcoin.



A surge is coming. The trolls will tell you it’s a “bull trap”.

Not talking about crypto baloney here (aka shitcoins)...

Only talking about bitcoin, here.

Stay away from shitcoins unless you are gambling and/or watching closely for when to get out quickly.. in other words, the concepts of long-term investing does not apply to any shitcoins.. unless you want to justify why it might.. but surely not relevant here.. but in some other thread, perhaps.. .