Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 546. (Read 135640 times)

You are explaining it a bit different than me, but it could be that we are mostly understanding what each other is saying.

I am not sure if it might not be worth emphasizing a bit better what I mean, though.

Of course, this thread is about bitcoin, so it might not be too good of an idea to get too distracted into talking about various shitcoins, including which ones might be worth investing into, if any of them.

So in this thread, we are already presuming that bitcoin has a strong long term investment thesis.. so part of the reason that you want to invest into bitcoin is that you are considering that it has decently good chances of going up in value with the passage of time, and that likely it will perform better than other investments that you have.. or at least you are willing to take those kinds of chances, even though surely there are not any guarantees in terms of whether bitcoin will actually end up outperforming other investments, but if it is at least going up in value, then it still could end up paying off - especially if you have an investment timeline that might be 4-10 years or longer, so it may not be worth it to be attempting to trade in and out of bitcoin, if you consider that 4-10 years or longer down the road it will be worth more than it is today (including accounting for cost of living changes too)..

So if you are coming into bitcoin, you might come to some kind of a determination regarding what kind of a budget that you have and perhaps how long it might take you to accumulate enough bitcoin to reach your target accumulation levels.

When your goals are to accumulate bitcoin, the best ways to do it is DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.   HODL does not really help you to accumulate more BTC, but it might help you in terms of NOT selling merely because you are worried about bitcoin prices in the short-term.

The most pure forms of DCA'ing would just involve a kind of regular buying of BTC, perhaps on a weekly or a monthly basis and not necessarily trying to figure out whether BTC is in a dip or if it will dip more in the future.  Therefore, DCA buying would just be regular buying that is more based upon how much cash that you have in your budget and that you are able to buy on a regular basis.

Of course, some people try to time their buys in order to take advantage of potential dips, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as you are not prejudicing yourself out of bitcoin because you end up waiting too long before buying.. but surely, there are ways that you might be able to both buy BTC regularly and also to keep some money on the sidelines in order that you might be able to buy more BTC if the BTC price happens to dip.

The longer that you are in BTC, then the more likely you would have built a stash of BTC, so the longer that you are into BTC, then maybe the more that you would be wanting the BTC price to go up, even though surely sometimes you can be advantaged to be able to have BTC price dips that would allow you to buy more BTC with the same amount of dollars.

I have mentioned in several posts that if you are merely saving 10% of your income, it could take you 10 years, just to put away 1 year's income, so of course, if you are able to put away more or if you can get better returns on the amount that you had put away, then your investment portfolio would have greater chances to reach higher amounts, and even considering that many people believe that it takes 20-30x of your annual cost requirements to really get to a kind of fuck you status in which you are able to start to live off of the interest from your investment portfolio (presuming that it has reached a fair value that could be assessed somewhere in the 20x to 30x size of your annual living expenses requirements).

Many people never reach fuck you status, even though you still can live quite well, even if you do not reach fuck you status and your bitcoin (or other aspects) of your investment portfolio might reach some kind of size that is maybe between 1x of your annual living expenses and 20x.. which are various levels prior to officially reaching fuck you status.

If you want to see some of my other discussion on the topic of fuck you status, then my investment thread contains quite a bit of discussion on the topic.


The best place to start is at the beginning - which is modestly, and making sure that you have your shit together with other aspects of your finances and psychology.  If you figure out your own situation, then you are more likely to be capable of investing in a way that is "as aggressive as you can be" without going overboard because you have your budget and your psychology in such order that you are able to deal with your monthly expenses including having sufficient funds for emergency expenses, too.


Of course, if you are ONLY able to earn minimum wage, then it could take a long time to accumulate wealth - even though surely, we know that you might not even need 1 whole BTC in order to still be able to profit stupendously from bitcoin.   Having a goal to achieve 1 BTC is no longer very realistic for a lot of people around the world who have not already accumulated a significant amount of BTC.

You have to figure out BTC accumulation targets that are meaningful for you, and surely once you reach those targets, then you may well be inspired to continue to build and to set higher BTC accumulation targets for yourself... So maybe your first target might be to reach 1 million satoshis.. and then maybe 2.1 million satoshis, and then maybe 10 million satoshis.. and then to be careful to make sure that you secure your bitcoin in such ways that you are NOT going to lose them or that you have less chances to lose any of them... even though sometimes there still can be costs that are involved in buying/selling satoshis and also costs involved in moving them around or sometimes you might feel that you need to purchase somethings like hardware or incur other kinds of costs in order to feel comfortable about the security of your bitcoin.


Well?  Those kinds of decisions are ones that each of us have to make, and countries do not always make rules that are in the best interest of their citizens, and sometimes they make surprise rules.   No one can tell you exactly whether you might interpret the rules differently or you might consider that you have rights in terms of your ability to both secure and to communicate value, and so you might consider that the overreaching aspects of some rules (or that there are some government officials who do not sufficiently understand that they are overreaching in their authority).. and some people might choose to take the safe route to save money in their own local currency (which seems to be the behavior that the government officials are wanting to inspire you to do), but your saving (or attempting to save) in your own local currency ends up fucking you over royally.. since there are some currencies that really suck in terms of their ability to hold much if any value, especially when compared with bitcoin, and so if you save in your local currency for 10 years, you might have 1/100th the amount of value that you would have had in bitcoin... and yeah, there are no guarantees regarding how any of this will work out, and surely it is better to still be alive and to be free rather than being locked up or to be put to death by your government.. so no one can really make those kinds of choices for you in regards to weighing the trade offs and/or figuring out if you might end up getting trapped into various inferior investments because you are afraid (or you misunderstand) your abilities (or rights) to actually invest in bitcoin.

In 2022, in the forum, we even have had members who had been pumping and talking great about their abilities to invest in US Government IBonds because that financial product was available for US citizens and earned some high rate of interest - like 9% or some other alluring amount, but buying that product in late 2022 when BTC prices were around $16k would not have had been a very smart purchase, especially compared to bitcoin, including that bitcoin has already nearly doubled it's price in less than a year, and those IBonds have several tricks to them in terms of when the interest even starts to be earned and how long that value has to be locked up in them without suffering penalties for withdrawal or early withdrawal.. so they are not even as good as bitcoin, even though people were tricked into such products .. and they were not told that bitcoin was banned, but even the US Government officials are not honest in their communications and frequently try to imply that bitcoin is bad or evil, and if you go along with the proclamations (and advices) of your government officials, then you are likely going to end up screwing yourself up in terms of your own finances in such a way that you might never be able to recover from how much you end up either losing or failing to be able to earn because of the price movements of BTC and other products can sometimes move quickly and in such a way that you will never end up getting those lower prices again.. never ever again.  We have seen it many times.

Something similar happened in China in late 2016.  A lot of Chinese exchanges locked up the value of their citizens in the various Chinese exchanges until they KYC'd or whatever other bullshit that they were supposed to do, and a lot of those citizens got screwed out of the whole 2017 bull run.. and perhaps even Chinese officials thought that they were going to be able to discourage the BTC price from going up, but bitcoin did not give any shits about what the chinese thought about bitcoin in 2016, 2017 or any time thereafter, and really the BTC never came even close to correcting back down to those sub $1k or even prices around $1k or $2k at later points of time in 2018 or thereafter the lowest corrections were down to the lower $3ks and that level of BTC price correction did not even last for very long.


You are not the ONLY one who suffers from receiving my relatively long responses.  You can glance through random samples of my post history and see that I have tendencies that go back all the way to the beginning of my forum membership for long responses.

Yeah, i am really new to this forum, but i am not new to bitcoin. Few months ago, i was interested in making money by doing trading. So, i started to spend some time in watching anything related to cryptocurrency either its BTC or Alts. So, i came to know that, before investing in BTC, i should be prepare for loss too, and i should have great analyzing skills which i definitely lack and i came to see many charts which makes no sense. But then i came to know about trading and holding. And there i knew, holding is for me. And i think in your last paragraph, you also tried to explain that holding or accumulating BTC is better than buying on dips. Like, means the same as trading. Someone buying at dips looking for short term gains while holder do'nt do that.

And i get it, from quite some time, i try to accumulate BTC but not able to do that. Many reasons don't know where to start. Well, one reason is to accumulate 1 BTC i need 8,495 days. According to stompix. Other is Crypto is ban in my country, so i think i should save some money in my local currency, so that when the bans will be lifted i could buy some BTC. I know i can still buy it but i don't want any issues. so, neat and clean is best for everyone.

Do you often right that long replies or its just me who needs that much explanation. Feeling like a blank slate. 

You are not necessarily wrong, but I am saying something a bit different than what you seem to be saying.

I am saying buy in accordance with your situation, and if you do not have much if any BTC, then you likely need to buy regularly, and you likely do not need to wait for any dip in order to buy because you need to first get to a point in which you have bought enough BTC that you are adequately prepared for UP.  Depending on how much you are investing regularly, it could take years, and years and years before you start to feel that you have built a large enough stack that you can therefore start to supplement your strategy by buying on dips or even moving away from regular buying and instead buying on dips.


That's true.  Once you start to incorporate a "buying on dips" strategy, you can budget for various dip amounts - however, we know that buying on dips can both be a moving target in terms of how much the dip goes down and how long it lasts, but it also can be a moving target in terms of how much money that you might have coming in and also if you might get some surprise amounts coming in that might adjust to the upside or the downside.

You can structure your buys and even your changes to your buys in ways that are frequent  (such as weekly reviewing where your buys are at) or even a bit less active such as monthly or quarterly, and sure if your buy orders are tending to fill more frequently, then you may well end up triggering your needs to review or to make changes based on how frequently they are getting filled and whether their getting filled might end up affecting your needs to make adjustments to some kind of a preexisting plan that you had been employing.


That's true.  Your Psychology will likely improve from your buys and also whether your plan seems to be resulting in profits or even expectations of profits, even if there may have been some set backs along the way.  Sometimes it can take several years before your portfolio is actually in profits, so even if you are getting buys that are cheaper and cheaper, sometimes there can be concerns and worries about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and if you are believe that you are becoming overly concerned, you may well have to consider whether you need to either reduce the amount that you are investing or to change the way that you are investing in order to contribute towards your feeling better... and in that regard, sometimes merely setting buy orders (or changing buy orders placements and amounts) can contribute towards improvements in psychological well-being.


If you had not noticed, this thread is attempting to address long-term BTC investing, so considering target prices seems to be a different subject.. and if you are referring to short-term target prices, then you are likely referring to trading rather than long term investing... which is also not the thrust of this thread..


It seems that one of the points I was making is in regards to the bullish effect on BTC prices currently because of the application of Blackrock and then several amendments to other ETF applications, so in that regard, we do not necessarily need to wait for further expiration dates in order for whatever bullish effect to be playing out.

Also, I don't have any strong predictions in regards to which direction the BTC price might go in shorter-term timeframes, but I do believe that each of us should be attempting to prepare for either BTC price direction - so of course, if we have been in BTC for a decently long time, then we likely would already either have our BTC accumulation plan in place or maybe we have mostly already accumulated BTC, and we might be supplementing our BTC accumulation plan to the extent that dips occur and the extent to which we already have accumulated "enough" BTC could affect how far that we would need the BTC price to fall before picking up further BTC.

I am also of the belief that people who have not spent a lot of time in BTC, should mostly be erroring in the side of buying BTC regularly, and the extent to which the BTC price might go down or up in the short term might not even affect such a persons regularly BTC buying schedule, even though that person still might have extra cash that s/he is holding in reserves in order to have prepared in the event that the BTC price drops below certain price points, and if the BTC price does not drop s/he might also have a plan that s/he uses a certain amount of dollars to buy BTC regularly (such as weekly) no matter what the BTC price.

You are pretty new to this forum Dictator69, and so I am not sure if I can presume that you are also somewhat new to bitcoin, but it can take many years of regular bitcoin stacking (and accumulating) depending on if you are able to draw from other investments (to accelerate your lump sum investments into BTC) or if you merely have to rely upon cashflows that might only allow you to buy small amounts of BTC per week.. such as $100 per week or something like that, and surely I know that in some parts of the world, people might barely be able to buy $10 per week from their cashflows - especially if they have not otherwise built an investment portfolio that they can reallocate into bitcoin.

Anyhow, even though surely there can be some attempts to buy on dips, even for newbies, but I doubt that buying on dips is as important as just regularly buying until you get your BTC (and/or investment) portfolio up to a certainly large enough size that you start to feel that you are sufficiently prepared for BTC to go up, so that you might not have to continue to employ regular buys but you have the luxury of considering buying on dips as a means to either supplement or in some cases to replace the practice of regularly buying BTC.

Thanks a lot for helping, i didn't have the authority to post image currently, so i posted source link too. And definitely these ETFs are putting some pressure on BTC price. If i am not wrong, then i think you are preferring to Dates. Like in the columns of Next Deadline and Final Deadline. We can see final deadline of most of the ETFs are in 2024 and that exactly when the Halving will start.

Now i started to doubt that BTC price might fall to $25k too. Because till 2024 we might not see any good news like ETFs and other so till then we might see more dumps. Well, that's good news for those who still didn't took entry but bad for those who took entry at current market price.

Bitcoin is always at the top of the crypto market and the value of altcoins depends on the price of bitcoin. As technology and the financial system change, the use of bitcoin will continue to grow and develop. Scams have increased with the rise in bitcoin prices but it is important for individuals to carefully consider the risks and benefits of investing and do their own research before making an investment decision.

Crypto risks are high but, it's true, a challenging simulation and operating plan. Yes. Many big Institutions have entered, one of them is Silvergate Bank, and MSTR have made a deal if I'm not mistaken. another sign that rate hikes will stop and stabilize in 2023. Yes. I will save this post and visit it again on December 25, 2025.

I agree with you. No one can predict for sure where the bottom of BTC will be. In my opinion, you should determine where your buy zone is, when the btc price reaches the target price area you start buying. You can divide into many buy zones with different weights. When you buy BTC at a good price, your psychology will be very stable when the price fluctuates up and down. And you will hold BTC to the target price you expect.

I cited your post to show your image - but your image cut off some of the content.. so I reposted the full image from the twitter link that you provided.



This kind of news in regards to so many ETF applications pending should have some kind of upwards pressures on the BTC price, so if we are currently getting BTC price movement in the opposite direction, then it seems like good ideas to buy at various price points - and none of us can really know how much further the BTC price might dip.. or even if it is done dipping.  If you do not have much if any BTC at all, then likely you should be erroring in the side of buying regularly rather than waiting for lower BTC prices, but if you have been buying BTC in the sub $35k territories, and even down into the sub-$20k territories for the last 15 months or so, then you might not feel as much urgency to buy BTC on the relatively smaller dips that are currently happening and bringing us down from $32k into the sub-$29k prices, so far...

At the same time, it could be a bit greedy to completely wait for prices below $27k, since the 200-week moving average is currently at $27k, so sub $27k may or may not happen.. and if sub $27k does happen, then maybe the BTC price would not stay there for very long.. and I am not even claiming to have any certainties regarding if the BTC price will continue to go down or if it might be done going down.

Haha, An ETF investor be like hey broo did you invested in BRRR. . the ticker names are funny though, Well the other company ARK shares have a good ticker name (AKRB) which is better, but this BRRR doesn't make any sense. I doubt why would traditionally people about many news outlets are talking about. Saying these are the main targeted audience of these upcoming ETFs. Because when companies will get registered via governments such people will start to invest in it.

post link
I hope those traditional and well sophisticated people like this ticker BRRR I should make some meme on it.

That's what I said before where we only want to discuss with the investments we make in Bitcoin and not with coins. Instead of it being a ridiculous thing for some people who saw our history before. Well a person can change and that's the difference it makes. I don't know after that I was no longer interested in those ridiculous words. Now in this case someone who previously chose to invest in altcoins and they went to Bitcoin because they saw the potential that Bitcoin had more promising than altcoins. Is it wrong.
 #Maybe that was my reply on the previous page.

Now, seeing this condition, I still stick to my position, namely buying in stages. But yes, there are many obstacles that occur both in terms of our financial aspects that we have to adjust. Also there are some people who support us and also some who mock us. So in this case you invest for yourself and not for others. let's just say the person who thinks you failed at this time will regret it later when you get a big multiplier in the Bitcoin investment that you have done long ago. Keep it up and keep buying.

but we don't accept altcoins in this thread, you can discuss it on the altcoin discussion board, here we discuss bitcoin and the strategy for buying it, even if you have the same preference for the strategy mechanism for buying altcoins, we don't care about that.

their fraud has become a trauma to the market which makes it always down, don't you remember many incidents about it?, bitcoin is the main one and has never shifted its position to be king in the market until today, while altcoins always rotate positions then become extinguished as time goes by time.

You're not getting the point. They are scams because most of those, to be political correct let's call them "altcoins", do something but they're not truly what they are claimed to be. IE most of them are not truly decentralized, and their developers know it, but they will never admit it.

On a lighter topic, Valkyrie's ETF will be listed under the ticker "BRRR". Hahaha.

To be more careful, we need to understand that this other cryptocurrencies inventors, operators or project developers also rely on bitcoin as their solid investment background asset that funds the other projects they developed, so why should a common man like we made a decision to invest with them when we have the direct link to invest with bitcoin and hodl thesame way others are making their profits from it.



There's no way he can ever regret this kind of decision made because he will realized far beyond what other crypto investors are having, even the other physical assets we have couldn't be as this profitable all because of the right timing for bullrun after next year halving.

We're talking ONLY about Bitcoin in this topic. Why? Because I, personally/no offense, consider 99% of the projects from the "wider crypto community" to be scams.

OK, for your argument, let's have an experiment. Let's pretend that you are the worst investor in the world and bought Bitcoin during different parts of the crash, and your average price is $30,250 = Today's price. You are HODLing starting NOW.

Bookmark this post and visit it again on December 25, 2025. Merry Christmas.

You have to figure out a strategy that works for you.

If you are earlier in your bitcoin journey, then likely you should just be buying bitcoin regularly within your budget, and not fucking around with trying to figure out if there is a dip or not a dip.  In other words, figuring out the dip is likely a position of someone who is already mostly secure in the various positions of their investment portfolio, especially including having comfort with how much bitcoin that they have.

After you have started to accumulate some bitcoin, you might be able to figure out points in time in which you start to feel that you have enough, or that you want to supplement your buying by trying to time some aspects of a dip within perhaps certain quantities or maybe within certain timelines, because also presumably you have cashflow coming in on a regular basis as well that would then likely figure into how much extra (disposable) cash that you have available to you at that particular time (or various times coming into the future, you would be able to foresee how much cashflow that you have coming in and the arrival of those cashflows would thereafter also end up affecting your budget).



Yes.. for sure you have to account for BTC price history and where we are at and also try to identify if you have some ideas about momentum, direction and/or if any changes might be coming in the price direction, and surely the 80% or more price drops are also measuring from the top to the bottom, and we are in the middle of such correction of previous price drop from $69k to $15,479....

Don't be too greedy waiting for an 80% price dip from here.. or even getting back to the low point of this particular cycle, when even though those are not zero probability events, they are also probably not very likely, either.

It could be possible that we will never see below $30k again, but of course, sub $30k is close to our current price since the price is currently $30,400 as I type this post.  .. and so the further down you go, $28.5k, or $26k or $24k or $20k, the more difficult it is likely to be that we would reach each of those price targets, so you likely would be a bit of a fool if you are too busy preparing for down and failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in the event that down does not happen and even down to the level that you might be expecting to happen.

If you are brand new to bitcoin, and you have $12k over the next 6 months, but some of that you have currently available, maybe you would divide that into three and buy $4k immediately, DCA with the other $4k and then figure out some kind of a buying on dip plan iwth the remaining $4k, and how far you plan for your buys on the way down (and in what increments) would be a personal question, and again, I would not consider it too wise to fuck around with all or nothing strategies, but bit you have some budget and you have already put some value into BTC, then you would have more freedoms to take chances on the remaining portion to be able to buy at lower BTC prices, while realizing at the same time that the lower prices may well not end up happening, and then questioning yourself if you would be o.k. with that result or would that result cause you to panic and to end up buying while the BTC price is going up rather than your ability to figure out a BTC buying plan that is more comfortable and that you can live with whichever way that the BTC price ends up moving.


I cannot disagree with these points.


I doubt that anyone is going to completely catch the bottom, but hey do what you like.  And regarding selling, this thread is not about selling but instead about long term holding.  If you want to talk about selling, take that shit somewhere else... to some other thread.


You are all over the place with these questions.  So we had a bottom in November 2022 of $15,479, but the BTC price shot up to $32k, and we have been mostly bouncing around in the upper $20ks for 6months, with a few corrections along the way.  So do you want to talk about the last 6 months and whether the BTC price is going to correct again?  How does anyone know those kinds of things?  Part of the reason for preparing for either BTC price direction in terms of your budget and your psychology is so that you are not going to be disappointed no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term, especially if you cannot really know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term.  You seem to be trying to suggest that there is some way to have some kind of confidence regarding BTC short-term price direction, which seems to be a trading mindset rather than long term investing, which is the topic of this thread.


We are not talking about any of those traditional asset classes, including that bitcoin is not a mature asset class, and it also is likely not correlated to those markets and also there are likely dynamics in bitcoin that include exponential s-curve adoption... that will likely cause you to get fucked, and even more fucked then you seem to be trying to be because you are failing/refusing to appreciate bitcoin for what it is and trying to be smart and act like you know about markets, and applying those same ideas to bitcoin.

Good luck with that, you are going to need it.. even if you might end up being correct in the short term, if you fail/refuse to stock up on bitcoin for the long term or have long term ideas about it, then you likely are going to be having a hard time down the road.. whether that is a few years from now or maybe 6-10 years from now or some other time period in which you realize that you don't have many or any bitcoin, and you sufficiently knew about bitcoin but you failed to stack sats. and you fucked around with trading bitcoin (and valuing it in dollars) rather than really recognizing its world changing dynamics, its greatest wealth transfer in history dynamics and its paradigm shifting dynamics.

Probably you need to study bitcoin a bit more, rather than either studying trading strategies or trying to spread information about trading strategies, when you aren't even on topic here because you are missing some presumptions of this thread which is that within this thread, we are already presuming bitcoin to be a good long term investment - and that is why we are not talking about selling and/or trading (which seems to be your perspective).


We are not talking about shitcoins here.  We are talking about bitcoin.  Do you know what is bitcoin?

Why are you using the term cryptocurrencies?  We are not talking about that in this thread.


Sure... We know that bottom fishing can go on in any market, but so what?  Also focus on bitcoin rather than all of the various bullshit related to some kind of an amorphous concept such as Cryptocurrencies, since there are 20,000 or more cryptocurrencies, and some of those markets are more liquid than others...

So even we focus specifically on bitcoin, bitcoin has a lot of markets within it, and surely there are various financial tools that are being developed, which could also cause some of those folks to get reckt when the markets are not very regulated and perhaps the third party offering the service does not have the coins that it claims to have.. so again, instead of speaking broadly, narrow your analysis down to bitcoin if you feel that you have some points that you want to make regarding likely manipulations that might be happening, in either price direction (which you seem to be wanting to focus on manipulation in the downwards direction).. 


You sound distracted.

Which is the head and which is the tail?    does the head wag the tail or does the tail wag the dog?

Do you have any clues about that?

If we are considering what kinds indicators or what kinds of happenings in the world or what kinds of things potentially affect bitcoin prices, I thing that folks are going to get quite lost if they get overly focused on shitcoins, even if there might be short term price affects that are caused (or contributed) from various shitcoins, but if we are considering bitcoin as a long term investment, then why get distracted with that nonsense - including short-term BTC price moves that might come from those kinds of things - except surely we are talking about the possibilities of taking advantage of BTC price dips that might come from a variety factors and for a variety of reasons, including things happening in shitcoins, so then maybe we might have some buy orders at various price locations or maybe we are planning to execute our buy orders manually at various price points, if they were to occur.


You spend a lot of time focusing on whether bitcoin has bottomed, and now you are determining that it has bottomed.  Go figure?

Still seems good to prepare for either price direction.. and how much you might have in your budget for buying on various dips and at what price levels should be something that people can decide... so for example, if someone (from my earlier example) has something like $4k in cash in his/her budget for buying BTC on dips, and if s/he already bought bitcoin, then maybe he would have buy orders down every $500, and whether s/he goes down to $28k or $26k or $20k could affect how much s/he sets at each of the increments.



Fuck shitcoins.. we are not talking about which ones might be less shitty than others.. so take that nonsense somewhere else, it is not related to this thread.

I believe that it is not a very realistic scenario that people who recognize and appreciate bitcoin at $50k or more to be a good investment, to lump sum into bitcoin and to just sit on their hands for the next year or two and wait to be back in profits.  Yeah sure some people gamble like that, but it does not seem to be a very smart position to just lump sum in and then fail/refuse to buy any more BTC until getting back into profits, so in that regard, if they continue to buy, then their average price per BTC should end up coming down.. even though the specific BTC that they bought at or near the top would still have those high prices that will take a while for those specific BTC to get back into profits (if they ever do).. by the way, if you keep buying BTC in the past couple of years, you do not have to have all of your coins to get into profits in order to profit from your investment by bringing down your average cost per BTC by continuing to buy at prices that are lower than your average purchase price and to continue to bring down your average cost per BTC.


Yeah.. but newbies do not necessarily need to figure out all of the particulars to bitcoin in order to continue to invest in DCA kinds of ways and to have good chances of profiting in the long run.  DCA is meant to be a strategy that anyone can use, whether they know anything about bitcoin or know nothing about bitcoin, and an ongoing DCA practice is likely going to give options to people but surely how profitable they are or how long it takes to get into profits or even how long that they choose to follow such DCA practices can surely vary between people.

What you said @JayJuanGee here is right because so many investors who never understood Bitcoin movement and market characteristics in terms of volatility and unpredictability of bitcoin price have come into Bitcoin when the price was at All time high and at that have to wait for a long time for the price of Bitcoin to recover back to the purchase price and also wait longer to see profits so to time the long term bitcoin holding slogans may seem to them as an unending journey.
Bitcoin vs DCA approach seems to be the best safe ride strategy but for that to be highly beneficial one need to have a long run-off knowledge of Bitcoin and in-depth experience of how the market reacts to various characteristic that influences the price at some point and that is not what a newbie investor can do.

Buy when the market falls deeply, but how much is deep? Buying at the bottom is also risky, as a drop in prices could be a sign that the market is about to crash. It has also adjusted to over 80% in the past. Therefore, you have to determine which price zone is attractive enough to buy. As for where the bottom is, we can't guess. Let's discuss whether to catch the bottom or not and when the bottom is right, at what price will you sell? Do you buy a valuable asset when it falls below the previous price, but is that the final bottom or will the price continue to fall and establish a new low? For asset classes such as stocks, real estate, gold... that have been around for a long time and are popular in the market, bottom fishing is very popular and it has resistances that are hard to break. However, with a new and volatile market like cryptocurrencies, bottom fishing can bring many risks because the market size is not too large, so some sharks can manipulate the market and break resistances. so you have to be very careful when catching the bottom in this market. Should I catch the bottom of altcoins or the bottom of BTC? In my opinion, BTC should only be bottomed because it has been joined by many large organizations, appeared the earliest and is held by many organizations and individuals, so it cannot collapse. As for Altcoins, there are already many coins with a value of 0. Or with coins in the top 20, you can catch the bottom.
After successfully catching the bottom, when will you sell them? That is a very difficult question to answer.

It is still possible for this to happen, but in other conditions we will confuse ourselves when making some month-end notes for example because there are 2 subdivisions for reserve funds, namely for investing and unexpected needs.
But as I said earlier, it doesn't matter if you do something like this because the expenses are clearly for investing, it's just that there may be some conditions that will definitely make yourself a little dizzy in recapitulating expense records.

Actually, in this case I'm probably talking more about the price increase. Indeed ATH is a very good thing but when talking about DCA for example like when bitcoin touched the price of $15k a few months ago and doing DCA starting from there, then for now with the increase in bitcoin we have also benefited and indirectly when we have a strategy for DCA then for the current price we have benefited in terms of investment.
But indeed waiting for the new ATH is also not a problem as long as you can afford it but when talking about profit in my opinion when we return to the context of DCA then indeed at this time it is also profitable and ATH is just another goal to make the profit even greater.

👍

But if a newbie asks for advice like those people in the Trading subforum, just tell them the truth that 90% of "traders" lose their money to the 10% of traders who "participate" in the market. I keep on repeating, how can plebs like us profit consistently from well-capitalized traders with their armies of bots? We simply can't!

Furthermore, time for a shower thought. We know the macro-economics and the geo-political side of things remain to be in a bad situation. What if during 2024, the recession arrives causing everything to crash just like 2020 when the pandemic happened.



Possible?

None of us can exactly choose the time in which we learn about bitcoin or that we figure it out, and there were people who thought that bitcoin would never go below $50k again.. which was not even a non-zero possibility.

So if we got into bitcoin in 2021, when prices were largely between $40k and $60k, one of the easiest things would have been to attempt to pace your accumulation of BTC.. and sure, it is possible that any of us might have had tried to front load our investment (to the extent that we might have had disposable capital that we would have had been able to invest at that time), and even if we were to have had made some larger front loading investments, it would have had still been prudent to keep a DCA and buying on dip plan.. which is almost the easiest of paths rather than fucking around with thoughts of selling and buying lower... or just HODLing without doing anything for 2-3 years or however long it might take to get back to profitability for those earlier purchased coins.

Surely none of us would have been buying between $40k and $60k and considering that it to have had been realistic for the BTC price to go down from our buying price point, yet we still would have had been able to look at the various charts and we would have seen that bitcoin spent a considerable amount of time in sub $10k prices for a lot of the time between early 2018 and even late 2020, so even though there had been price spikes above $10k, a decently large portion of that time period had BTC prices below $10k  (and buying during that time would have had gotten quite a few people with average BTC prices below $10k) - so even if we came into BTC in 2021 with BTC prices between $40k and $60k, we could have looked at the charts and appreciated that we might not want to go "all in" but instead to have some hedging abilities. and maybe some abilities to appreciate that the BTC price could go in either direction - even if we thought that it was more inclined to go up rather than down.. but then we ended up being wrong about that.

So even if we might have started to buy BTC in terms of the first BTC price spike in early 2021, we would currently be close to break even in terms of our costs per BTC as long as we continued to buy - so for example buying $100 per week starting on March 1, 2021 would have ended with $12,300 invested up until now and nearly 0.42 BTC accumulated. 

It is surely possible that instead of DCA buying, we might have had front-loaded our investment in the beginning by doing some kind of a lump sum investment, and that would have caused our average price per BTC to be higher, but  it still seems that currently we would be moving towards getting closer to break-even in terms of the value of our investment, and sure maybe in the end, it is not the easiest to accomplish a kind of ongoing buying while we are building our stake in BTC, but it does seem to be amongst the better (if not the best) of paths when we have already assessed BTC as a good long term investment.. so if we were to have had perceived BTC as a good investment when it's prices were between $40k and $60k, then we should have considered it to have had been an even better investment when the price dropped below $20k (including down to $15,479 and staying in that price area for a couple of months).. and so even now we may well be considering BTC to be a decently good investment around $30k. and still bringing down our average cost per BTC if we are buying now and maybe our average cost per BTC might still be a bit higher than current prices.


I think that you phrased that weirdly ajiz138, and I think that it is problematic to be counting on a new ATH in order to be profitable, so part of the reason to DCA into bitcoin, is to bring down your average cost per BTC, so you would not even necessarily need an ATH again in order to be profitable... so if someone had been investing in bitcoin for more than 2 years (like my case above starting on March 1, 2021), then if they are close to having their BTC costs being around $30k, then if BTC goes up to $50k, then their BTC holdings become around 66% in profits...

Of course, we feel better when our BTC is in profits rather than it being in the negative, but we still likely need to be careful in terms of expecting too much or even expecting that we are going to sell our BTC for dollars, because holding dollars is likely a losing proposition, even if we know that our bitcoin holdings are going to continue to fluctuate greatly in terms of their dollar value.