Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 544. (Read 122880 times)

I don't know how we would give any shits about if the model might be anywhere close to 100% valid for 50 years in the future, when I surely have never said either of those things.  For example, I said that it was currently amongst the strongest of models when accompanied by concepts of the 4-year fractal and the consideration of exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.. so in that sense I am not even asserting such stock to flow model to be even close to 100% accurate even in the near future and so inferentially we likely would need to see how a variety of matters play out if we are using various models in the coming 50 years.. yet with any model, surely we can have a frame of reference that might take us out 50 years or more, but need to adapt along the way too... based on how new facts play out along the way.


It seems that I already addressed this, but maybe I can try to frame my answer in a different way?

I think that the model is currently valid and amongst the best of explainers, so I am not sure how much need there is going down potentially BIG ass assertions, and maybe you should come to your own assertions regarding what points might either make the model invalid or needing to be tweaked.   I see a whole hell of a lot of people in the last month or two wanting to completely throw out the model as if it does not mean anything so those kinds of determinations seem way too premature.. but whatever, do what you like. 

PlanB had already asserted that he expects that the model is setting forth an expectation of a $100k average price for this whole halvening period, and we are just short of half way through the period.  So if there were to be underperformance within the halvening period, or maybe when we get further down the road, we might see that $100k is not going to be met... but at this point, we are ONLY less than half way through the period, so why is there any kind of need to get too excited about invalidating the model.. and maybe some might use the model to project a lower expected average, and would reaching a $40k average?  or a $60k or a $80k average invalidate the model or just cause it to need to be tweaked in some way?  There may be some variance in thought on that, but still seems a bit premature when we are less than half way through this period and there is no real reason to conclude that we are not on track, even if there seems to currently be some underperformance in terms of expectations where the price should currently be or even underexpectations in the average price for the halvening period so far to be underperforming.   


I don't have any strong opinions on any of the macro-issues that you are mentioning pooya87, and I am not sure how many shits I give about details of how long various systems and reactions to systems are sustainable.  I do retain some assumptions that even though there is a lot of bad policies regarding unsound monetary powers, how money is used for sanctions (as you mentioned) and even variations in individual actors making matters better or worse, that the USD is going to remain strong for longer than we expect that it should be sustainable... and of course, there are all kinds of waves along the way, while at the same time value is going to continue to flow into bitcoin through all of this time.. and so how it all plays out is way beyond my paygrade or even any desires that I want to speculate upon.

On individual levels we largely continue to need to determine how to allocate our various risks, including how helpful we consider bitcoin to be as a hedge, and surely I don't plan to abandon several of my dollar based investments or even my holding of value in the dollar or various dollar based investments while projecting out my expenses and even my potential drawing from those kinds of accounts into the coming 10 years or longer.. and even though all of those accounts for me are tending to be less than 10% of my value because of bitcoin's ongoing higher performance levels... so whether they stay around 10% or they fluctuate between 5% and 25%, I am not really planning any radical measures in terms of feeling that my own hedgings are sufficiently good.. even though heavily skewed into bitcoin as already mentioned.

Of course, individuals who are just coming into bitcoin might need to consider their allocations matters a bit differently, and surely many of us bitcoiners consider that having a decently aggressive hedge in bitcoin is going to be helpful for a large number of potential future scenarios... Only in the past week or so, I had considered upgrading my recommendation to bitcoin newbies to consider their investment allocation into bitcoin to be anywhere between 1% and 25%, and I used to recommend 1% to 10%, but I don't have any problem to increase my recommendation, and I take absolutely no responsibility over the investment choices of others.. they have to be responsible for what they do an how much they choose to allocate, even though I am comfortable to say that I have increased my recommendation and you decide for yourself where you want to fall in the allocation spectrum.. if you are whimpy then 1% and if you are aggressive, then 25%, and of course, you are even free to go beyond what I am recommending as a starting range to consider.. and of course, the more anyone studies bitcoin, then s/he is no longer going to fall in the bitcoin newbie category.

Sure, but the degree of such effects is very different. For example US economy tanking took Europe down with it too, so the effects were huge. But when I talk about indirect effects I have 2008 in mind when US was recording negative economy growth with stock market crashing and millions of jobs being lost, etc., meanwhile Iran was setting +5.2% growth and that's a country that heavily relies on oil exports where the price dropped 70% from $150 to $40, with stock market soaring (after a short period of panic sell) and an increased non-oil exports.

Of course I believe that such things (in addition to how entangled their economy is to US economy) partially depends on the strength of the economy of the countries too. For example US has a massive economy but it is a very fragile economy. We saw this in 2008 recession and we saw this again in 2020 pandemic. Conversely Iran has a small economy but it is battle hardened. Take the past 4 years for example, nearly 2000¹ globally enforced sanctions only caused a high inflation for about 6 to 9 months before things went back to normal with regular inflation. Interestingly enough the pandemic effects on Iran economy were minimal too.

¹ Just to let you know how ridiculously high that number is, the next sanctioned country is Syria and there is only about 500 sanctions and it is falling apart! For another ridiculous comparison, Iraq had about 10 sanctions starting in 90's and a million people started to starve to death annually and Iraq economy basically ceased to exist. (Stats are from Peterson Institute for International Economics)

It depends on whether the parties are corrupt/incompetent or if the whole system is deeply corrupted.
If it is the former then I strongly disagree, it makes a big difference who is in the office. A more competent administration without the same corrupt actors in its body could easily make big changes.
But if it is the later then maybe it is time that the system was replaced in its entirety!

I never said it wasn’t. I was merely asking you if the S2F Model could continue to “predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with an accuracy close to 100% for the next 50 years”?


But at what point until we say that the model has been invalidated? Human psychology, and behavior has always influenced all markets. I believe no predictive model could project that.

Of course I can understand what you mean, it should work when I need to buy it regardless of the price. This accumulation strategy is the same as when I want to keep more bitcoins than a few percent of my monthly income, that's great for the long term but not everyone is willing to do it.

Regardless of what strategy people prefer, I think owning bitcoin and keeping it long term is something that many people should think about and consider. Price correction and dump are great opportunities to collect more bitcoin.

A model, such as stock to flow is a reference point, and of course, it should be data driven, so the data may well inform it in terms of how much of a slope or a curve to project into the future based on data of actual performance.  If you completely poo poo the currently valid and relevant models, then you are likely detached from reality, and of course there is no problem to critique them or to proclaim which ways your assessments deviates from the models. On the other hand, some folks completely ignore what seem to be currently valid and relevant models because they want to proclaim their own detached from reality announcement that bitcoin is going to do x, y or z.. and I say: "what the fuck are you basing that on, besides pure wishful thinking?"

I see no reason to completely ignore stock to flow, four-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, but I could see why someone might want to supplement such models with ideas  of elongation of the cycles, shifting of the curves or some other reasonable analysis that bounces ideas and data of the already existing credible model theories.. but complete rejections and assertion that those models are broken seem to be nearly complete pie in the sky bullshit that sometimes revolve around ego aspirations rather than attempts to really grapple with on-the-ground bitcoin price dynamics.


Everyone is somewhat affected by USD performance, whether you like it or not, and even if you might be somewhat detached from it.. USD performance seems to have world-wide tentacles.



I doubt that there is going to be a whole hell of a lot of a difference in terms of which persons and their appointees are in office.  There are some limitations in what they are going to be able to do, even if they were to want to create more responsible monetary policies.  Sure it is difficult to know whether some of the emergencies and crises are created on purpose, and surely bad motives can be ascribed to governments (and it is not even necessarily which party is in power) regarding  various desires that they have to create various control mechanisms which are likely NOT to the benefits of the citizens overall, but they seem to be motivated to devolve into various kinds of ways in which they want to control the population.. which just seems to be a bunch of bullshit.. that governments are suppose to be instruments of the public, but they have various tendencies to devolve into their own self-inspired mechanisms of wanting to control people and therefore to perpetuate systems that are not always seeming to be people empowering;.. its for your own good wear that mask and its for your own good take that injection and its for your own good put yourself into a system to be completely monitored for nearly all purposes (whether travel/movement or various kinds of ways that you spend your money or with whom you might associate).... Irritating for me to that governments are supposed to be instruments and tools to empower the people but seem to devolve into various kinds of control mechanisms to patronize the people in a variety of ways that become potentially worse with some of the technological mechanisms and we are hoping that bitcoin can attempt to either fix some of this or to put some of the power back into the people to create incentives that cause governments and governing bodies to be more responsive to the people rather than getting out of control and trying to overly control people.


I don't know, but it seems that we always are going to be better off when we attempt to create systems for ourselves to attempt to balance our exposures and to give ourselves more options individually.  For sure, we are going to have to have some exposure to dollars including making sure that our expenses are covered for a certain time into the future, and presumptively the vast majority of us are receiving our income in some kind of fiat that we have to balance the extent to which we hold that fiat, or some other stable currency and/or the more sound money of bitcoin.  We cannot either be keeping all of our value in bitcoin, but we likely do have to attempt to strike some kind of reasonable balance to maintain some kind of aggressive exposure to bitcoin because it does seem to be amongst the best places to keeps decent quantities of value to hedge against a lot of the clown show activities of a variety of the fiats, whether the dollar or otherwise, and surely other assets, such as property and equities, are being used storage of values when they are not meant to be used for such purposes.


This thread is not about the employment of those kinds of strategies, because we are talking about accumulation strategies that do not involve selling that ultimately involves a kind of gambling and taking of risks in terms of whether the price will drop and then you might be left with fewer BTC if the price does not drop.. so if you are just ongoingly buying BTC, then you are not taking the selling risk, and at the same time you are constantly accumulating BTC with the main risk being just considering how many BTC you consider buying at various price points, and if you might hold back buying in order to determine if a BIGGER price dip might come, perhaps? perhaps?

Michael Saylor bought 1914 Bitcoins again with value fiat of $94.2 million. He will be HODLing 1 Bitcoin out of 150 Bitcoins mined if he keeps buying more at the same rate.

STOP SELLING YOUR BITCOIN TO MICHAEL SAYLOR.

If it were me then I would sell 100% of my bitcoin at a high price and would try to buy again at a lower price to get more bitcoin. This method allows you to collect more bitcoin no matter how many USD estimate you have with them. You know, cycles like this can always appear in the market and I thought it would be very good to use it to collect bitcoin when the price corrected and sell them after the price recovered.

The strategy you use in managing your finances is very good. Such a strategy can reduce risk so that you have a backup in case bitcoin goes down in price. With the way you do it, I believe you have the potential to get maximum profit.

I don't want to see it as high volatility. But what I am seeing  now is that whenever bitcoin dips it use to recover so quickly than before. This means that as many people are selling. Many people are seeing it as buy opportunity.
Even if we cannot predict the future but with my small experience in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still in early stage. Bitcoin will always recover and bitcoin will be still strong in the next 50 years.

The thing that would worry me about US dollar (if I were directly affected by it) is that the economy could pull another 2008 and crash hard. It is certainly long overdue and there is enough reasons for it too.
We already have the corruption worse than 2008 times, we also had the ginormous amount of money FED printed and on top of all that the pandemic wrecked the economy but the full effects of it hasn't shown up for some reason in dollar value.

As if it weren't enough, we also have all these countries that are slowly ditching dollar as reserve currency or for international trades. The only 2 reasons why dollar is valued this much! From tiny countries that are more like symbolic moves like el Salvador to the biggest economy in the world China which has been running their plan for a couple of years now.
Those newbies in Washington seem to be putting more wood in this fire too (or maybe it is gas ). Essentially they are polarizing the world where one side is the US and the other side is everyone else.

I strongly believe it will be excellent for bitcoin, the decentralized currency that was born out of the ashes of 2008 recession.
The only thing we can do is to accumulate more bitcoin while decreasing exposure to anything that is affected by USD devaluation and possible devastation.

I said no model can forever be relevant because the world is unpredictable and chaotic. I did not say it was never relevant.

Answer the question. Can S2F predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with an accuracy close to 100% for the next 50 years? Yes, or no? Even “Moore’s Law” is losing some relevance.

Fair enough.

I can kind of appreciate the feeling.

In late 2013, when I got into bitcoin, my initial plan was just to create and then to follow a 6 month BTC accumulation budget, so I had not really figured out what my BTC accumulation target was until after I had extended my initial 6 months by an additional 6 months, which thereby brought me to a year of creating and following BTC accumulation based on two budget time periods.  So by the end of 2014, I figured that I had reached my 10% BTC accumulation goal, and I also figured that the remaining 90% of my investment portfolio could support me quite decently if my BTC were to go to zero.

Anyhow, since the BTC price stayed low for almost all of 2015, I did end up going past my initial 10% allocation into the ballpark of 13.5% by the end of 2015, and BTC's price appreciation through 2017 ended up causing my BTC to constitute about 85% of my total investment value, and the dip down to $3,124 brought it back down to around 45%, but then the subsequent run brought me back into the supra 90% arenas with my BTC too.

Sometime in 2016 I had reconsidered some of my earlier plans to engage in regular reallocations, which would have caused me to have had sold my BTC at various points, and instead I adopted a let the winners ride kind of framework for my approach to BTC.  So yeah, in the more than 8 years that I have been in bitcoin, my bitcoin holdings had risen quite a bit more than 50x (and yeah a few up and down waves within that), and my various fiat based investments ONLY went up around 70% during that same time, and surely even with the various news about the debasement of the USD that came more to light after March 2020, it has become more clear that even with 70% increased value of those various other non-BTC investments, they have likely NOT really increased in value in any kind of meaningful way.,. because it is becoming more and more clear that the dollar is ongoingly getting debased and worse so in recent times.....

And for sure the many of my assets are either equities, properties, but they are still related to dollar debasement and sure the dollar has been amongst the strongest of currencies, but we are still getting screwed even if some of our value is kept in dollars or maybe we have to spend dollars and hope that there is some value there in terms of goods/services that we might get from our use of the dollar.

 The considerable extremes of the dollars ongoing debasement and even our being lied to about the levels of inflation (6% my ass), causes us to recognize and appreciate that perhaps all of those other dollar related investments that I have are largely performing flat in terms of their dollar purchasing power; however, my BTC has not turned out to be flat and in fact my BTC seems clearly to be unambigously not flat with its 50x plus in appreciation in its dollar value...so sure, I did not even really give any shits about 50x price appreciation so long as my investment allows me some kind of meaningful appreciation above and beyond ongoing dollar debasements, and surely in recent times, it has become more clear that it does not hurt to have some extra price performance cushion in there with my BTC investment.

So, yeah I believe that various kinds of management that I have done with my BTC as compared iwth my various dollar related investments (and even property exposure) had largely kept my BTC holdings to be bouncing around in a kind of 88% to 94% relative valuation.. and yeah sometimes I have gotten somewhat nervous, too, about the level of exposure that seems to indicate in terms of how much of the value is in BTC as compared with other kinds of assets or investments, whether we are referring to amounts in dollars, or amounts in equities or property..

I have not put any value into gold or precious metals, and part of my rational for that was that I had considered bitcoin to be serving a similar kind of hedge, and surely it appears to have played out in my favor in terms of some of gold and PMs monetary value seem to be flowing into bitcoin, and whether we consider bitcoin to be 10x or even 1,000x better than gold, we should also be able to see how that has been playing out and likely to continue to play out in terms of bitcoin continuing to eat gold's lunch (an perhaps eating some of the lunch of other PMs too, to the extent that some of the other PMs might have monetary premiums that will end up flowing into BTC... Gresham's law).  In that regard, BTC is ONLY currently valued at about 1/10 gold's market cap, so 10x will likely be relatively easy, but getting to 100x or 1,000x seems plausible even though it could take quite a bit longer to play out.. maybe 10 years or even 50 years.. who knows, and my investment thesis in bitcoin is not reliant upon those matters playing out in the near future, even though they may well end up playing out and more icing on the cake for us BTC HODLers/accumulators.

I sometimes like to compute my total net-worth by adding up everything I own but whenever I do that I panic when see 99% of it is in bitcoin. A couple of years ago I cashed some out and bought an apartment and 99% turned into 98%. I repeated it this year and the percentage didn't change. Of course part of it is because the cost of living here is ridiculously low but the main reason is because I'm a true believer in Bitcoin.

Well if you have been able to ride out various bitcoin waves since 2015, including keeping a decently high proportion of your networth in BTC then who am I to say otherwise. 

I do believe that each of us needs to be careful in terms of managing our cashflows and making sure that we are able to ride out nearly inevitable BTC volatility periods.  Of course, if our BTC portfolio is significantly in profits  - even in supra 46x profits, then it seems that we have flexibility including if we might need to shave some BTC off for some extra expenses, even if it might not be at a price dynamics time of our choosing, we still might NOT give too many shits if we are adequately and sufficiently in profits (even if we might have been better off to sell at a peak rather than during a dip).

So, yes, the preferred practice would be to try to maintain some cashflows to be able to make it through dip periods, and for sure we do not know how long the dip periods will last or even how long they will go.... so even in May/June/July, there may be some people who are worried that we had just experienced a 56% drop in BTC's price that ended up lasting for nearly 3 months, many of us longer time holders might proclaim something like: "So what?  Instead of being 65x in profits, I am ONLY 28.6X in profits.." which also ended up being a temporary status, too....so for sure being in profits gives more options, and also being significantly in profits seems to even give additional options, so long as we did not screw things up too much along the way.

I do also notice that there are quite a few longer term HODLers who do still also attempt to buy BTC on dips from time to time, and sometimes even if there are various shaving off of profits as the BTC price is rising, the overall quantity of shaving off of BTC might not even constitute very large portions of their overall BTC holdings.

I do also attempt to tell people if they had not been in bitcoin for one or two cycles, then they cannot necessarily expect to be in a position of considerable profits, so sometimes it can take a decently long time to both accumulate a decent amount of BTC and then second to start to feel that you are in sufficiently decent profits in order to feel as if you have more options.  So anyone new to bitcoin should not be rushing their getting to a more comfortable status, but surely there are ways to attempt to just be more aggressive, whether that is buying on dips and lump sum investing or my preferred method of establishing some kind of a somewhat aggressive DCA strategy.

I used to trade more a couple of years ago when exchanges weren't enforcing KYC nonsense. Essentially I took advantage of the big and obvious corrections to increase the amount of bitcoin I had. Nowadays I mostly keep some spare fiat around for whenever there is a significant dip and buy bitcoin with it in a P2P way. For example I recently bought some in the current dip and am waiting to see if they can succeed in pushing it lower so that I can buy some more, if not then I just dump the remainder of my fiat before we cross $50k again.
In the end, ever since 2015 almost all of my net-worth has been in bitcoin and the only thing that has changed is the size of my net-worth.

There's nothing really wrong with your transposing BTC price performance timelines, yet I find PlanB's model to be way more compelling in terms of attempting to explain where we have been and where we might be going, in part because there are way more data points.. and there is already an acceptance of a kind of price performance range that is built into PlanB's jotting out of a kind of range that he (his model) believes the BTC price might end up.

By the way, what are your own preparations?  Do you buy or sell BTC based on any of your BTC price expectations or otherwise attempt to manage your BTC holdings based on whether you might be persuaded one scenario or another seems more likely?  Of course, there are some folks who might sell a bit of their holdings, and maybe some people sell a lot based on expectations, yet of course, this thread is attempting to figure out points at which to buy, so I suppose if there are expectations that the price might drop, then there might be tendencies to HODL more cash in order to attempt to still have cash available to take advantage of various dips that are expected.... and so if there is an expectation that the BTC price is going up rather than down, there might be a tendency to buy more at the current price or at the current dip level rather than to wait it out.


That's quite the refrain from you Wind_FURY to so frequently be suggesting that I need to read your posts and your meaning better, and if you believe that there is some kind of more clear meaning, perhaps the burden remains upon you to clarify what you mean a wee bit moar better.

In other words, I feel absolutely no need to go back and read any of the posts.  I made my post based on whatever information that I then had.  Whether I was refuting your personal point or making my own point or attempting some other feat has become a matter of record, so I find no need to be going back and trying to figure out if there had been some kind of meaningful and significant confusion.. which seems like a big ass waste of time to me.  

In other words (am I running out of words yet?), is there something that needs to be said to clarify?  I feel that I already said what I wanted to say, and I may have even repeated myself a few times, so I don't really have anything that is jumping out at me that I feel that I need to say.

Regarding our current dip, my next buy orders have been set at $44.5k-ish and in about $1k intervals down from there since about December 7th, and sure there were a couple of times that we had gotten within $1k to $2k of them filling... Before that, surely all of my buy orders were filling down to $42.5k-ish on December 3rd... so yeah there has been some additional waiting regarding if there is going to be more dip or whether the dip might be over.. I know that some people will get some additional cashflow with the passage of time, and a month is a decently long time to receive some additional cashflow, so then the question becomes whether to buy now or to wait for more dip, no?  Another part of the reason that having at least some of your newer cashflow dedicated to DCA is that you do not have to try to guess (and potentially stress out) about these kinds of matters.


When you refer to the market rebounding later, I imagine that you are referring to some kind of rebound in the coming months, no? 

From some of my previous posts, you will probably appreciate that I have decently-sized expectations that our peak for this particular cycle has not been reached yet, but hey, you never know.

In other words, do you have a plan in the event that we do not get recovery from here?

In the midst of bitcoin market conditions being experiencing a price decline lately, Buy the DIP and HODL are very good things to do. if the market rebounds later, then the person who HOLD bitcoin will get a satisfactory profit.

I didn’t say that, and you’re not listening, and you seem to put words in my mouth. Read what I’ve posted. Would you say then that S2F can predict Bitcoin’s path to price discovery with close to 100% accuracy for the next 50 years?

Plus market analysts found the cause of Bitcoin’s latest crash!


Rest in Peace.

Lets just call it a transitional speculation as I'm changing it since the previous one I had has been diverging from expectation. And I still haven't solidified it well enough.

My previous speculation was based on the past market behavior and was mainly due to the surprising similarities between the first 3 years of this cycle and the first 3 years of the previous cycle (out of 4).

I didn't have the data for the bear markets and the 85% crashes where price comes down from about about $1200 to $152 @ 2015-01-14 and the subsequent one where price comes down from $19666 to $3135.55 @ 2018-12-14. So there is no chart but this period was also very similar with same market behavior, drop sizes and durations.

But then we have the bottom that was reached and the reversal that followed (from $152 and $3135.55 respectively). We saw the same small rises, similar corrections and durations. Finally after 875 days we even get the same percentage rise from the bottom (about 1600%):



In day 876 we have the beginning of a divergence and the 207 days that follow (from day 876 to day 1083) the 2021 cycle (red line) starts lagging behind to the point where the rises we had this year are dwarfed by their counterparts in 2017 and the crashes we keep seeing after each rise are growing in duration.



This is the main reason why I disagree with those saying the top is in and with those who say a bear market like 2018 (the 85% crash) is coming. This final chart clearly suggests we are far from such scenarios.
It also shows the possibility that the days of such moves are nearly over and the bubble/bust thing can be split into smaller chunks.

I admit that even though 207 days may seem like a long time but we could still see the two charts converge again and see the same big moves repeated. Specially since there were some strong preventing forces that slowed this cycle down.
This is why I still don't have a solid speculation and want to wait a couple of months so that I have more data and be able to come up with a better view.