Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 576. (Read 122571 times)

I continue to wait for the moment when market correct a bit as this gives us an opportunity to keep buying more for less price rather than other way round which people are doing and this helps me to see some of them quickly when it rises to book short term if I require money or else it is an good long term investment for me.

Shitcoins are scams, comparable to the Tulip Mania, not Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be a decentralized protocol that will be online for multiple generations. The design-decisions made by the Core developers will make it so.

Few understand this. The community has been tricked that speed/1,000,000 transactions per second is the path to success for a decentralized protocol, but trolls will never educate you of the costs.

This thread is not referring to "crypto" generally, so it would be erroneous to presume that buying dips applies to any shitcoins because you need to be able to have confidence that the various shitcoins are going to go up at some point, and the mere fact that they went down does not mean that they are going to go up, even if bitcoin goes up.

In other words, buying on dips only applies to bitcoin.. fuck that other shit.. and fuck the mindset of believing than shitcoins (altcoins as you refer to them) have any kind of parallel to bitcoin, even if they are wanting to suck off the tit of bitcoin for as long as they can.

Exactly what I've been experienced since 2017. Imagine how many people are as yet holding from 2017, the majority of the alt coins from 2017 either don't exist any longer or they are down 90% or 99% so because they have a bad strategy. Everything will go up again things just apply to altcoins with use case.

We have to get familiar with the market so we realize that when to purchase and sell. Overall, Its called market cycles and corrections after a push.

Some of the people who are reading the topic are posting that they don't know which dips to buy. This is NOT investment advice, I'm only an ordinary pleb, BUT

"Good profit" is not/should not be your true goal. The true goal of HODL, in my opinion, is to have a fall back, a back up when the Fed/Central Banks/the State lose control of the monetary system.

Short term profits might matter to you, but I believe that there are a decent number of other people who think about these matters a bit differently, including thinking about bitcoin as a long term investment.

So back in 2015, maybe you bought BTC at $250, but the price kept going up, and you kept selling at various points on the way up, so if you sell too much too soon, then you may have run out of BTC to sell by the time BTC prices reached $3k in August 2017. 

So then you say to yourself that it is o.k. the price will come back down, and so far, the BTC price has not come back down to below $3k.. Yeah, sure you made a lot of profits, and you even made 10x on some of the profits that you had sold closer to $3k, but you still missed out on a lot of additional profits, too.



My personal approach to BTC is to attempt to plan to never run out of BTC to sell and never run out of fiat to buy, so therefore you have to plan accordingly, even when the BTC price has tendencies to have very extreme runs in either price direction. 

Sure, no one can be perfect, but surely there are ways to attempt to plan to be prepared for even the most extreme of extremes.



No matter how much money you have, you should be attempting to buy BTC within your budget and hopefully not risking any money that you cannot afford to lose or that you might need for short term expenses, even emergencies.   So, if you do not have your cashflow in order, then probably you should not be investing in bitcoin.

Of course, any of these kinds of investing matters are going to be easier for people who have built a larger investment portfolio, and frequently it takes time to build a decently large investment portfolio.. but no matter if your investment portfolio is large or small, there tend to be a lot of similar principles - especially if you are attempt to treat bitcoin as a long term investment rather than gambling.

Furthermore, if you have BTC accumulation targets, you likely need to focus more on just regular buying and buying on dips rather than selling any BTC at all... because it may well be very risky to sell any BTC when you have still not met your accumulation targets.

Accumulation targets are something that each person sets for themselves and it is going to vary.   



I doubt that the questions that you proclaim to be on everybody's mind is actually the case, because people vary in terms of how they strategize their investment, and whether they sell any BTC at all, especially if they are accumulating, like I said.

So, sure if your BTC holdings are considerably profitable, then maybe you can shave off some small profits along the way, but shaving off profits along the way can become very problematic, like in the situation that I described above and you end up selling way too many BTC too soon and then you don't get any opportunities to buy them back for lower than you had sold them.. plus you miss out on the opportunity to sell much higher, including selling more than 6x higher than the highest price that you had sold.

So, personally, I would frame the whole matter much differently from the way that you are framing it, Oilacris - because you seem to be much more inclined to engage in risky kinds of behaviors of selling too much of your BTC.. because you are trying to time the top of a wave which is a kind of gambling.


Exactly..

This is what happens to people who are too busy engaging in trying to time the market, rather than really getting their shit together in terms of establishing their BTC accumulation goals and meeting that first... DCA and buy on dips.. and sure maybe play around with a bit of it, but try NOT to run out of money..

Once you meet your BTC accumulation goals (which surely can take a while), then you may well have a bit more freedom.. especially if whatever BTC that you have accumulated is in profits, too.

At the same time, until you are really solid with your BTC accumulation level, you still should not be playing around with trying to time the market, but instead attempt to establish modest plans and practices that prepare you for no matter what direction the BTC price goes and allowing the price to come to you... and including when in doubt buying on dips... (which is the title of this thread.. buying on dips).   

If this is the case I am holding, like what I am doing for a long time now.

If I have no choice to do things I wanted with it, I will just keep on holding. For sure time will come that either buying or selling is the choice so I just need to wait for that time. We really need to take advantage of the opportunities we have.

this is exactly why we keep seeing so many panic moves (a panic sell where price suddenly drops down, or a panic buy where price suddenly jumps up). there are always a decent number of traders who think they can make profit with the trend that has gone up for a certain time in the future too, but then that trend changes and they get confused not knowing what to do next so they panic and increase the volatility instead while losing all the profit they had made to that point.

When you ran out of btc to sell, then what else you can do? as long you do already have sold and in profits then that what matter most for everybody.

What if its going down but you do have ran out of fiat to buy more? Then so be it, everyone does have different level when it comes to financial capacity.Lucky for those who have more but to think
that buying  even more does increase the risk even more.So its still a good call for someone who do buy on minimal but of course when in talks to profit then it would really be always equalled on the
money you had risk.

The real challenge here is on how to determine the right time for you to sell and when to buy.This had been always a question on everybody mind.

What if it keeps going up but does not come back down and you run out of BTC to sell?

What if it keeps going down and you run out of fiat to buy more BTC?

yes, profits can now be made every day because the movement of bitcoin every day can go up and down quickly, if you listen confidently buy when it goes down and sell it after going up. because the difference is quite good and very profitable if it happens several times.

I doubt that this thread is very focused on the selling aspect in regards to your bitcoin strategy...

Look at the title of the thread.

The focus here remains about accumulating bitcoin and how to do it, so sure if you have reached your BTC accumulation goals, then you can start to consider the extent to which selling might fit into your BTC maintenance plans... but seems to me that the focus of this thread remains accumulation rather than maintenance or even taking profits in dollars.

There are a lot of examples in BTC history of folks who either failed to accumulate enough BTC or sold too much too soon.

It's all about buying low and selling high, that is what investing in Crypto market is, you must follow the market prepare funds when there is a dip and set up a plan on what price you are going to sell it, sometimes it takes a lot of time or a long wait before you can sell, but it's worth it as long as the coin you are holding is good you just have to be patient and wait for the right time to sell.

Well, what else can we do? If we saw our coin plunge we should take the opportunity to accumulate and then just HODL it, if it surges then sell. No one will set at a low price though so what's our choice?
The coins I think better on these buy and HODL strategies are the less volatile one like Bitcoin and Ethereum but if it is an altcoin mostly, you won't be needing to HODL I guess, the fact that most of the altcoins are highly volatile.

Thanks exstasie, that largely makes sense to me.

Definitely not much science to it. Statistics and risk management is all we have. The best we can do is back-test our strategies to statistically gauge the win rate any given trade setup yields. Then we can employ an exit strategy that is profitable and, based on our back-testing, consistently attainable.

In my experience, 3:1 or better is a good target to shoot for. That means your win rate can drop below 50% and you will still be profitable. By 3:1 I mean for every 1 unit stop lossed, I am targeting 3 units of take profit.

So if price is trading in the middle of nowhere (far from horizontal support) I avoid entering long positions because my stop losses would need to be very wide, making for a risky trade. It's nice to buy near support. That keeps your stop losses small.

I suppose that there are all kinds of variables in terms of "letting winners run,"  but maybe there are some circumstances that you can identify in which you have pretty decent odds (and therefore high confidence) to "let winners run." 

We also know that the trend tends to be your friend, but that kind of assessment might only get you to 51/49, if you are correct about identifying the true underlying trend that is dominating at the time because sometimes we might be in a long or medium term bull trend, but a short-term bear correction is taking place within that longer or medium term bull trend, and if we had bet on down for the short term.. but we cannot be sure if the correction is going down 5%, 10%, 20% or even greater because the dynamics might change along the way based on additional down momentum that is caused by getting past certain price support points.

I bet that it is quite difficult to have any kind of science in terms of figuring out at what price points to take profits or to attempt to let it ride a bit more even if believing that you understand the pattern that seems to be playing out in the short term.

Buy and hold shouldn't apply to altcoins without  case use, as we have found thousands of these projects without products backed by. Though this with few exemption but before buy anyone ensure it be a good project with prospect. The only assurance with buy and hold should be with Bitcoin and not another(altcoins to be precise). Bitcoin is that coin you can buy at dip and hold for long-term if profit is to be sure but for others I doubt.

80/20 would be crazy. In my opinion, a win rate like that implies a trader is locking in extremely small gains to prevent stop lossing, i.e. not letting winners run. You can't make much money that way.

It differs from strategy to strategy but 60/40 is pretty standard for a good trader. 50/50 is fine too, with proper risk management. If you have a rock solid 50% winning strategy implemented with a 3:1 or better reward:risk system, you should be consistently profitable.