Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 91. (Read 77880 times)

Regarding to your quote I hope one of the key benefits of DCA is that it removes the need to accurately predict short term price movements. Instead it focus on the long term trend of the asset. By consistently investing over time regardless of whether the price is high or low investors can potentially benefit from the overall growth of the asset over the long term. Its very essential to note that while DCA can help mitigate some risks associated with market timing it does not eliminate all investment risks. DCA can help minimize the impact of short term market volatility and reduce the risk associated with trying to time the market.

Well said, in bitcoin, we have to consider the past, present as well as the future, this will all help us to have a desiring pattern to how we can hold, when to invest and all the necessary information's for an investment would have been made readily available for us to go with, the mistake most people made is that they were never ready to the task ahead before making an investment and they later find it that they have already left out an important decision undone right before they begin, that is why we have the market price speculation, using the chart to study with all indicators on every performances that had been experienced with bitcoin over time, this will be the first direction that we may needed to make an investment a suitable one for us to start, then we can now draw a pattern for the accumulation after we are done with the basics as fundamentals, then we invest in proper.

The DCA strategy is not mainly for the poor or people with insufficient funds; the DCA strategy is for both the poor and rich guys. Anyone who uses the DCA strategy to accumulate bitcoin wants to be free from waiting for the bitcoin price to reduce to a certain extent before he or she can buy bitcoin. With the DCA strategy, you can accumulate bitcoin anytime you want to buy it without worrying about whether it is the right time to buy it or not.

From what I've seen over the past few years, the people who guessed correctly were pretty much right. Although it is not possible to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin, some estimates are fairly reliable. Bitcoin investors gain confidence in investing around speculation.

DCA is a sound investment strategy for those with relatively less experience, insufficient funds, reduced investment risk, etc. Through which an investor can proceed to grow his wealth relatively safely. In the long run this will provide human relief as well as play a major role in the growth of the Bitcoin portfolio.

Your entry method is one off, made when you had the funds or you used DCA method throughout 2023 and onward? You followed the recommended method of setting aside emergency funds after working out ways of ensuring that your basic needs are met while you are holding? Pardon me if my question come out to be too personal, my intention is for others to also learn how you are doing it because as you know, approach to the Bitcoin accumulation determine how well you will be able to manage the Bitcoin in your possession.

I am also a bitcoin investor and using the recommendation of emergency funds helped me not to tamper with my bitcoin, if not it, I know how many times I would have sold part of my bitcoin to solve some pressing needs.

I am very happy to see that Bitcoin market is starting to grow day by day because I have invested in Bitcoin in 2023. I have full confidence in it because of which I have never been disappointed after investing. I know Bitcoin is a valuable asset. I am very proud to invest in Bitcoin.  I think I have bitcoins. So I haven't decided to sell these invested bitcoins yet. I thought I'll keep the invested bitcoins and think about selling them after a few years.

I really see a future in Bitcoin the value may fluctuate and uncertain but it has still shown that it has the ability to recover it's potential of appreciating and growing it value over time. Self conviction is am important factor that encourage an investor to hodl unto his investment even much longer than he planned. With your dca you don't have to monitor the market price, giving you that emotional rest needed to manage your asset.

Yeah DCA strategies is Indeed exciting, to me I don't think there's much need to start speculating the price bitcoin going to it and all that. Because I've already know that Bitcoin gonna surge massively, but just as you guys said we know is gonna happen but we can't actually tell when is happening. So I have strong believe in Bitcoin, and all I care about is to accumulate some good quantities of Bitcoin Because am actually still far from my goal in accummulating Bitcoin. That why need to be patient by exercising long-term investment so that would be able to accumulate more bitcoin and yield good profits.Well this is my first halving I'm gonna experience since knowing about this space, though have missed the previous ones and base on my research in most halvings Bitcoin always experience a great changes in price. And alot of investors that was patients enough endup with massive profits, some may have sold theirs while some keep holding but scrape some certain profit from their investment (bitcoin). But this upcoming halving I'm going to try my best to partake and grab the golden opportunity. Though I may not have started accumulating bitcoin on time, But still  According to Jgg  I'm still an early investors and I would try to make advantage of that.

We cannot completely ignore tomorrow because what we do each month has to be figured out, especially if we might have goals to attempt to maximize our bitcoin accumulation while at the same time not putting ourselves into situations in which we are going to end up panicking down the road, whether that is just managing our monthly income versus our expenses and figuring out how many BTC we are going to be able to buy each week, or whatever our buying time periods might be.

Even the scenario that I had outlined that has projection of an 8% price appreciation can be looked at in terms of a 10 year time horizon or even a 30 year time horizon, and surely if we are figuring out where we might be within those various time periods, we might even create some charts that might attempt to project where we are at each month, and we can compare where we are at as compared to where we thought we would be and whether we are on a path that it is going to potentially get us to where we want to go.

And, maybe once we plot it out, we might not need to think about it every day.  Perhaps?

Sometimes in our early stages of BTC accumulation we spend a lot of time thinking about it, but maybe once we set up a decently solid plan, we just continue to plod away within the bounds of our plan and then reassess once a month or once a quarter or twice a year or some other comfortable period of time.


When I got started in bitcoin, I had projected out a 6% return per year, and surely it took more than 3 years before BTC prices were higher than my 6% per year projection.. because the BTC price corrected, and it took more than 3 years to get back to where I initially projected where the BTC price might be in 3 years... so I was largely wrong in my projection, but that meant that I accumulated way more bitcoin than I thought that I was going to be able to accumulate, and so even after the three years the BTC price ended up going up nearly another 15x and then correcting back down to something like 3x above my projected price point...

so one thing that could end up happening  is that the price goes up, and then you hope that the price goes up after you had been spending time accumulating, but even if it does not, if you still have confidence in the investment, you should still be ongoingly, persistently and consistently accumulating.. in order to help you towards accumulating more BTC..

and part of the reason that you do it ongoingly, persistently and consistently is because you do not know where the price is going to go.. or how long it might take to get there, but if you have a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon, then you could still make progress, and surely if a price rise had not come in 4 years, then maybe you would keep buying and your time horizon continues to move out from each of your buys... and if your time gets shorter than 4 years, then maybe you stop buying or in some other way adjust your buying amounts downwardly in order to account for the fact that you no longer have a 4-year or longer investment time horizon.


I agree.  The halvening is a technological marvel.   And the fact that there are only 21 million BTC is a technological marvel, and we know that inevitably a lot of folks are losing access to their coins and are going to continue to lose access to their coins.. whether it is death and lack of properly passing them down or other ways that people lose their coins and the coins are gone forever into a donation towards everyone else who continue to hold coins.

We may be able to speculate the price of it but if it's about predicting it properly and accurately, one thing we can say is that it's always been unpredictable.

And it's just like you're free to do whatever you want. You have money? you buy. And even if you have money but you don't buy, then buy some other day or just totally don't buy at all.

That's one of the beauty of DCA.

And this is the function of running a DCA strategy because the price of Bitcoin is not easy to predict in the near future, but in the long term the price of Bitcoin will rise even if there is a decline.
Doing DCA doesn't require thinking about what the price of Bitcoin will be tomorrow, the day after, and so on and all it does is keep accumulating Bitcoin whatever the price. And with DCA we can minimize investment risks due to erratic market movements, and no one can predict Bitcoin prices accurately even if they are experts.

Targeting big profits in investments is normal and many of us want to achieve big profits someday. The twists and turns of our investment journey certainly have many obstacles and that is a struggle that we must go through to achieve success in Bitcoin investment. I also want to change my fate to live more frugally in order to be able to accumulate bitcoin more aggressively this year.

Halving is so close.
Even though our target is for long-term investment, we are of course waiting for the halving moment because it happens every 4 years. They would have made many achievements if they had invested early in Bitcoin because of every halving, of course they would have welcomed it with joy. The price issue is not something we want to talk about, but please know that this year's Bitcoin miners will get smaller rewards. from there, make the best possible use of the opportunity we have to keep buying and buying because there are only 21 million bitcoin. which will become increasingly rare because many are lost from circulation such as their owners passing away or they don't save their private key so they can't access their Btc holdings.

The truth is nobody can actually predict what will happen next in bitcoin price. Only what we know is the present and we shouldn't bother ourselves much about tomorrow, what the price will be. Everyone has the has the right to speculate about bitcoin price in the future, it's left for you to listen to them or not. But how I do my things, I don't really bother about things that doesn't matter at the present. Why bother what price will be tomorrow when one hasn't really maximize the opportunity we have today. One thing in bitcoin investment is to be open minded and brace yourself up for any market condition.

Of course, we cannot really know for sure; however between mid-June 2022 and mid-October 2023, bitcoin prices spent a lot of time below the 200-week moving average, and it even got into 35% below the 200-WMA at its lowest price point, and during that time, the 200-WMA moved up its lowest rate ever,  which was right around 20% annualized and $22.2k to $28.2k in actual dollar value for those 16 months.  

Likely into the future the 200-week WMA is going to continue to have depreciating quantities of increases, but it still is largely measuring the average BTC price over 4 years periods of time.. and is continuously moving up and continuing to serve a a pretty strong measure of bitcoin's bottom.. .so it becomes both unrealistic to expect BTC prices to go below the 200-week moving average and/or to stay below the 200-week moving average for very long and also to even expect spiking quantities that are 20% to 30% below the 200-WMA seems quite unrealistic, even if we did end up having that one time experience so far in bitcoin's 15 year history (but maybe just sticking with it's around 13.5 year price history).

In other words, they can wait around all that they like in a fantasy world in which their waiting around largely shows that they are NOT sufficiently understanding what they are waiting for and how they are measuring realistic scenarios.. even the buying opportunties that likely come when the BTC price is anywhere even near the 200-week moving average.. which had been a pretty reliable bottom prior to June 2022.

You can see bitcoin's spot price comparisons to the 200-WMA at this website.

 

Of course, there can be some additional value when buying bitcoin at relatively low prices, and surely some people ONLY have DCA as their resourceful way to buy bitcoin or anything else because they do not have any ability to lump sum their investment, yet I would not consider DCA investing into bitcoin to ONLY be productive in terms of buying during dips, especially since historically we have seen that even those people who felt that they had overpaid for bitcoin they end up profiting down the road, and surely DCA is going to continue to level out their average cost per BTC whether the BTC price goes up or it goes down, there can end up being a dogged and ongoing accumulation of BTC, in which there are a lot of benefits to just continuing to buy, even if your cost per BTC is higher than some folks who had been able to time the market and/or maybe they got lucky and they bought some BTC, but then they stopped buying...

The longer the timeline, the more that DCA can show itself as paying off, and works especially for folks who either do not have any kind of savings/investments but they have discretionary income or those folks who are nervous about saving and/or investing into anything, so a DCA approach can be amongst the only (if not the best) ways to get them comfortable to set aside some of their discretionary income.


As long as they stay in bitcoin, they still get the compounding, but the compounding is with such a small amount of value that it is difficult to see that it is making a difference.

So someone who invests $100 per week for 10 years into bitcoin starts to see compounding in his at a much higher actual values than someone who invests $10 per week, but the percentage of compounding is the same, but it is more difficult for the lower amount guy to see it in terms of actual numbers.. even though on a percentage basis the returns and the compounding would be the same.  You can plug those kinds of numbers into our earlier examples.


and so part of the assumption would be that the guy who has the $100 per week could choose to put it ONLY into bitcoin and/or cash.. or he could divide it into 3 parts or 5 parts or 10 parts, and so then he has just diluted his bitcoin investment, and hopefully he chooses something good to invest into, even though if we have already identified what we believe to be a good divestment, then why would be want to dilute our investment by investing into inferior investments.. unless we were to have the same level of feeling towards each, and this is especially true with people who do not have a lot of disposable income to work with.. meaning that either their income is not high or their expenses might be close to the level of their income.


Yep.. exactly.  In almost any scenario, if someone is a newbie, even after 4-5 years, it might be difficult to see a lot of progress... and that may well not be very important since it could well be the case that compounding is already starting to kick in, but it is harder to see until it might have had folded over on itself several times.. which again is not guaranteed, but that compounding, doubling and/or folding in on itself tends to be a product of several years and it becomes more and more amazing the longer that you stay into an investment.. and at some point down the road, you would be able start to drawing very large values from the investment relative to your earliest contributions.. so guys who might have had been contributing $10 to $100 per week into their investment in their earlier years would later able to draw a lot more.

Even if we plot out the same presumptions from the earlier example of 8% per year average BTC price appreciation and increasing our contributions 20% each year.. we still might feel that we are plodding along.. and we might feel that we are having trouble really seeing progress.

Date   BTC_Price   Weekly$Amt   $Invst/Yr   RunTotal$Invst   BTC/Yr   TotalBTC   Total$Value   #Yrs
1/14/25   $59,999.40   $10.00   $520.00   $520.00   0.00900009   0.00900009   $540.00   1
1/14/26   $64,799.35   $12.00   $624.00   $1,144.00   0.01000010   0.01900019   $1,231.20   2
1/14/27   $69,983.30   $14.40   $748.80   $1,892.80   0.01111122   0.03011141   $2,107.30   3
1/15/28   $75,581.96   $17.28   $898.56   $2,791.36   0.01234580   0.04245721   $3,209.00   4
1/14/29   $81,628.52   $20.74   $1,078.27   $3,869.63   0.01371756   0.05617477   $4,585.46   5
1/14/30   $88,158.80   $24.88   $1,293.93   $5,163.56   0.01524173   0.07141650   $6,295.99   6
1/14/31   $95,211.51   $29.86   $1,552.71   $6,716.27   0.01693526   0.08835176   $8,412.10   7
1/15/32   $102,828.43   $35.83   $1,863.25   $8,579.52   0.01881695   0.10716871   $11,019.99   8
1/14/33   $111,054.70   $43.00   $2,235.90   $10,815.43   0.02090772   0.12807644   $14,223.49   9
1/14/34   $119,939.08   $51.60   $2,683.09   $13,498.51   0.02323081   0.15130724   $18,147.65   10
1/14/35   $129,534.20   $61.92   $3,219.70   $16,718.22   0.02581201   0.17711925   $22,943.00   11
1/15/36   $139,896.94   $74.30   $3,863.64   $20,581.86   0.02868001   0.20579926   $28,790.69   12
1/14/37   $151,088.70   $89.16   $4,636.37   $25,218.23   0.03186667   0.23766593   $35,908.64   13
1/14/38   $163,175.79   $106.99   $5,563.65   $30,781.88   0.03540742   0.27307335   $44,558.96   14
1/14/39   $176,229.86   $128.39   $6,676.38   $37,458.26   0.03934157   0.31241492   $55,056.84   15
1/15/40   $190,328.24   $154.07   $8,011.65   $45,469.91   0.04371286   0.35612778   $67,781.17   16
1/14/41   $205,554.50   $184.88   $9,613.98   $55,083.89   0.04856984   0.40469762   $83,187.42   17
1/14/42   $221,998.86   $221.86   $11,536.78   $66,620.67   0.05396649   0.45866411   $101,822.91   18
1/14/43   $239,758.77   $266.23   $13,844.13   $80,464.80   0.05996277   0.51862688   $124,345.34   19
1/15/44   $258,939.47   $319.48   $16,612.96   $97,077.76   0.06662530   0.58525218   $151,544.89   20
1/14/45   $279,654.63   $383.38   $19,935.55   $117,013.31   0.07402811   0.65928029   $184,370.79   21
1/14/46   $302,027.00   $460.05   $23,922.66   $140,935.97   0.08225346   0.74153375   $223,963.22   22
1/14/47   $326,189.16   $552.06   $28,707.19   $169,643.17   0.09139273   0.83292648   $271,691.59   23
1/15/48   $352,284.30   $662.47   $34,448.63   $204,091.80   0.10154748   0.93447395   $329,200.50   24
1/14/49   $380,467.04   $794.97   $41,338.36   $245,430.16   0.11283053   1.04730448   $398,464.84   25
1/14/50   $410,904.40   $953.96   $49,606.03   $295,036.20   0.12536725   1.17267174   $481,855.98   26
1/14/51   $443,776.75   $1,144.75   $59,527.24   $354,563.44   0.13929695   1.31196869   $582,221.21   27
1/15/52   $479,278.90   $1,373.71   $71,432.69   $425,996.12   0.15477439   1.46674308   $702,979.00   28
1/14/53   $517,621.21   $1,648.45   $85,719.22   $511,715.35   0.17197154   1.63871462   $848,233.44   29
1/14/54   $559,030.90   $1,978.14   $102,863.07   $614,578.42   0.19107949   1.82979411   $1,022,911.46   30

And sure it could take a while for the starting to feel rich to play out, and sure maybe we are also expecting that there could be some explosive price moves to the UPside in bitcoin, even though maybe in our own planning, we attempt to prepare for more straight-line kinds of scenarios because they are easier to attempt to plan around (even though we know that the path is not going to necessarily be a straight-line exactly), while at the same time we may well also develop contingency plans regarding how to deal with other scenarios that might play out later down the road  (and the UPs and Downs along the way).. but in the mean time, we would stay focused on ongoingly, persistently and consistently accumulating BTC because we can see some level of aggressiveness and focus as a good way to be preparing for some of the unknown aspects of our future.

Greed is one of the common emotions in this space mostly when it comes to investing or trading. But our discussion here is mainly about  investing in bitcoin so let me put trading aside. Many people still lack that knowledge that procastinating would do you No good  mostly when it comes to  investing in bitcoin. Some would be like let the price dip to certain amount before I would consider investing on it (bitcoin). And the price endup undergoing a dip, due to greed they would want it to dip more before investing and shockying to them that may be the dip it may undergo before it (bitcoin) surge in price massively. Buying the dip and all that is good and epic but hoping for the dip always like you are the one controlling the market may lead to you missing out countless times, and also cause infrequent accumulation of Bitcoin which may lead to one having a low quantity of bitcoin (expecially those who are new in investing in bitcoin).

I Keep on saying this if you are the  type that is always trying to prove that you are patients in waiting for a massive dip in market before accumulating bitcoin, (when you should have exercise that same  patients in holding Bitcoin) try and also use DCAing to back things up to avoid any chances of you missing out. Because waiting without having any bitcoin In your portfolio, is just waste that shows that you are not ready to invest on it. So those that have such mindset and you this forum and also engaged in discussion in thread please try and adjust such mindset and start accumulating some bitcoin in your portfolio nothing small use DCA method to build a good and mature portfolio.

I wonder what's triggering the argument about bitcoin and wanting to make fast profit by all means, is this even necessary to some extend cause why will anyone think of such and wanting the price to fall. Sometimes people like this can be greedy but the mindset also matters that's why people should have a clearer meaning of bitcoin and differentiate bitcoin from other investments including shitcoins. I believe the price of bitcoin will not fall extremely low as most people think, that time has passed so they should just accept the reality and invest now cause now is never too late but comparing it to the past still hurts especially for newly investors like me.

Your hundred percent correct, allot of provision is already at hand to enable people who are willing to venture into the investment comparison is way of dispiring the available opportunity, buy and hold of Bitcoin either through DCA is a better way to go ,I prefer the method of prolonged holding because it's of more confident and profiting no matter the nature of the market it will surely bounce on your favour. Deraying from the centre focus which is Bitcoin can't aid any improvement, one can't totally isolate risk but risk in Bitcoin is minimal compare to many losses encounter in some investment mostly when it comes to do with shiltcoin, Bitcoin holding still the best.

@348judah Am not seeing any relationship between what you have just said now and the sentence @lalabotax assumption of being the topic of this thread.but come to think of what he said, are we analyzing the price change of Bitcoin in this thread? Are we determing when to buy Bitcoin in this thread? Am waiting to see response as regards to this.

Guyz, wait a little bit, this is not an argument that we are going to get paid for or something, we need to understand each everyone's point of view, when i go through what both of you are saying, i see a close similarity in them, just that you're not seeing the correlation, this is bitcointalk, everyone is permitted to talk and say his own, we are here making discussions on bitcoin and from what you can see on OP thread title, it's says, buy the dip and hodl, now it's over to you all to give your own opinions, make discussions and give your best contribution on how you've seen the opportunity in buying to hold, this start with the strategy to be used, when to buy, how to buy and where to store and as well as for how long should one buy the dip and hold, many of these have to do with how we can make our personal research and understand how to go about it.

The way is see it I think that most newbies that feel the need to diversify have not understood the value of bitcoin as an asset, and most of them think in terms of the more asset the more safe I am, but they fail to understand that having little value in many asset is a waste of time and they miss out on compounding value of bitcoin, what newbies need to see is that having value in one asset like bitcoin would be better than diversifying.

And I think it's good to only diversify when you have enough cash and income value to mange it, most newbies have very little cash and income and still want to diversify, there by reducing their allocation to bitcoin and would not end up meeting a goal of having a substantial amount of bitcoin within 4-5 years which should be a first stage of maturity of their investment.