Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 87. (Read 77854 times)

In the context of bitcoin, it is designed to pump forever.

So if you are anticipating an end date to bitcoins pumping, growth and even ongoing building of its network effects, then you probably do not understand bitcoin very well. 

If you think about network effects in light of Trace Mayer's outline of the topic, its a way to talk about adoption in terms of various angles of growth but also that network effects build upon each other and as the network effects grow, the asset becomes more and more valuable.

There should hardly be any expectation that bitcoin is going to even be close to mature in a couple more cycles, even though maybe we could speculate that it could take 50-200 years.. .. and yeah, there could be sparks that cause bitcoin to be adopted more suddenly in gradually and then suddenly kinds of scenarios, but it is also difficult to really figure out how the various legs of the journey will play out since there are knowns, known unknowns, unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and sometimes when the unknowns become more known or knowable, then at least better prognostications can be built from those points forward... but it is not like the process of growth ever ends, including something like a protocol layer kind of a system, like bitcoin that also allows for both the programing and the transfer of value (in a digital form) without permission.


That is bullshit.

We are either in a bull or a bear.. we are not in both, and yeah we might not know which one we are in and also we might have large corrections while we are in a bull market, but that does not take us out of the bull market.. and so sometimes we might not realize that we are no longer in a bull market or a bear market until much later.. . .and then it can be difficult to determine when we have transitioned from one to the other.. . but don't be throwing around the terms too loosely, otherwise you overly create confusion.

For example, we were in a bull run from about early 2019 until late 2021, but we did  not realize that we were in a bull market until about May 2019.. and including that some people might have gotten confused about whether we continued to be in a bull market in late 2019 and even in early 2020.. but they were likely sloppy in their language if they are calling that we went from a bull  to a bear to a bull to a bear and then back to a bull, when largely we were in a bull market the whole time..

From about early 2022 to mid-2022 we were in a bear market, but we might not have had realized it until about May 2022..

From about early 2023 we have been in a bull market, and some folks might have gotten more confident that we were in a bull market as of mid-2023, but it probably was not clear until around November 2023-ish..

When will be the next bear market?  who the fuck knows, but I would presume that we are in a bull market  and that we are likely going to continue to have various corrections along the way.. but those corrections are likely not going to take us out of the bull market, and this bull market could last one more year or it could last two more years... so we might not know or realize that we are out of the bull market until several months after the peak, and we also are likely not going to know the peak either, even though people do play those kinds of games, which may or may not be good for either your psychology or your actual ability to mostly hold onto your BTC.. depending on where you are at in your BTC accumulation journey and if you have enough BTC or if you might have too much BTC. which surely gives you more options if you have too many BTC.. and some folks believe that you can never have too many BTC, such as Michael Saylor.. hahahahahaha.. he is a bit of a psycho, but there are  others who think similar to him, and it is not completely crazy to have such thoughts about how to manage your BTC once you get to a point of relatively large levels of accumulation.

If we go by your January 2022 forum registration date Dunamisx, as a potential proxy for when you might have gotten into BTC,  sure it is possible that you could be at a state of overaccumulation, but difficult to automatically expect something like that, but two years it is possible.  In my own bitcoin history, I had felt that I had gotten to a point of overaccumulation in a bit less than 2 years... I am not like Saylor in terms of seemingly maniac focus on BTC accumulation (that might might make sense for his situation, including his business objectives), even though I agree with him about a large number of perspectives about bitcoin in relation to other assets.


I am not sure if that makes sense. 

Yeah there are some guys who say that bitcoin has been in a bull run since its beginning, which also seems to miss the obvious 4 year cycles which largely end up being 3 up and 1 down for the last 4 cycles..

I surely am not suggesting that past patterns are inevitably going to repeat, but there is some value in terms of looking at trends that might last 1-2 years or more.. .and don't get too caught up in shorter periods and also don't get too detached by too long of a period.. .. so there seems to be some value in terms of both living with bitcoin and attempting to interact with it... even if some folks might have different portions of their BTC stash that they treat differently.. and some portions might be long term storage, other medium term storage and other portions might be used for trading and/or spending.. and the more BTC that you have, the more flexibility that you have in terms of both defining your stashes and also managing your various kinds of BTC stashes with some amount of flexibility and optionality providing.
 

That's true.  BTC's volatility is one of its attributes that is most likely inevitable for at least another 20 years, and perhaps for 50 years or more. 

Some people like to attempt to consider BTC as becoming more stable and mature and blah blah blah, which sure it is moving in that direction, even though in its current state bitcoin is neither mature nor stable... so we should not be getting lulled into bullshit and inaccurate frameworks that try to describe bitcoin in ways that it is not.


There is some truth in what you are saying, especially for anyone who is either early in their BTC accumulation journey and maybe anyone who might have been dollar cost averaging.. even over less than 5 years.. especially if their DCA amounts might not have had been large (even if they have been consistently attempting to be as aggressive as they can be within their own financial abilities).  It can take a while to get enough BTC, and if you do not have enough, you likely are not in a position to really play any other tactic other than just ongoing buying... .. yet at the same when the BTC price is going up people get nervous about their ongoing buying, even if they have already concluded that they don't have enough and they have concluded that they are not sufficiently prepared for UP from here.


Actually as long as anyone has been consistently buying BTC, it would not matter what price he started at, even if they started at either of the 2021 tops. he is going to be in profits, unless he front-loaded too much at the top and then did not buy enough to bring down his average cost per BTC in the last 2-3 years.


That is called front running.. and nothing wrong with that.. even though you still have to be prepared for the possibility that the BTC price could end up moving against you.  We never know with these kinds of things, even though it does seem that there is a lot of evidence that there continues to be a lot of UPwards pressures on BTC prices that is likely to last for several months and maybe even through this whole year.. .. but at the same time.. we cannot always know.. so we just do our best to prepare for anything while realizing that the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to make sure that we have as many BTC as we are able to have.. .. but if we are not planning on selling for 4-10 years or more, there may or may not be any advantages in overly stressing our finances in order to acquire such BTC and/or to attempt to front run anticipated BTC price moves.


There surely is some truth in that... but we also have to be careful in terms of overly relying on patterns of past BTC price movements.


You are missing the expression, which is the best time to buy was yesterday, and the second best time is today..

but yeah, many guys actively participating in this thread likely already realize the value of getting the fuck started rather than waiting around.. and sometimes it can be more difficult for those who are just coming into bitcoin to get started and there can be worries when buying while the price is going up.. but there is still a dilemma.. because the price may or may not come back down.. none of us really know, so each of us has to figure out for ourselves in regards to how wee want to deploy our cash and whether we want to hold back with some of it.. which tends to be a bit easier the longer that we have been in.. so it is likely to be easier for the guy who had been buying the last 6-12 months as compared to the guy who just started buying in the last month or 2 as compared to the guy who is just setting up an account today who might not have had made any purchases, yet.


You seem to be bordering on trying to describe trading rather than long term investing.

Yeah, sure it is better to be able to buy as much BTC as you can, and it is better to be able to buy BTC at a lower price, yet in the long run, the long term investor might not need to be thinking about whether he has 30% or 70% profits, because it could well end up being the case that he is waiting for a longer period, and whether his holdings are profitable (and meeting fuck you status, for example) due to appreciation of the asset or due to ongoing aggressive investing, the person may largely just be aiming at increasing all of his investments until he reaches a state in which he has more options and is able to start to potentially live off his assets and to say goodbye to having to do certain kinds of work that he would prefer not to do.. but to have options can take years and years and years, rather than being concerned about short term profitability of his BTC holdings.

Don't get me wrong.  It surely feels good to be in profits, and so some of us might spend a lot of time with our BTC not being in profits and then little by little the increase in value and become more and more in profits, but there also may be times in which they fluctuate between being in profits and not being in profits, but if we are not selling in the short-to-medium term, then we can either just continue to accumulate BTC or maybe even transition into a point in which we are not placing as much emphasis on BTC accumulation because we have assessed our situation and concluded that we largely have either enough BTC or more than enough BTC.


That is what shitcoiners say all the time, and they end up broke because many times they end up gambling rather than investing, even if they might think that they are investing, but they have such superficial understanding what they are investing into and maybe they do not have too many clues regarding what is the meaning or risk and how do you either assess it and/or establish sound practices in order to mitigate many aspects of the risk.. whether that is figuring out position size, or what to invest into  or how to manage personal finances (including but not limited to planning for income and expenses - as well as establishing emergency funds, reserves and/or a float)...

I also don't like investing in bitcoin on somebody's behalf. I don't want to lose my sleep unnecessarily because I invested in bitcoin on someone's behalf. I do same thing as you by sharing the knowledge they need to start their investment. Of course every investment has it's own risk and I understand that bitcoin comes with it's risks. One thing about investment is, without risk there is no profitability. But one thing we have to know about investment is this, "the higher the risk, the higher the profitability. So without risk there is no investment.

yeah you are right is still a good time to invest in Bitcoin (expecially those who are planning to hold for long-term). Well recently hit $57k and went back to price range of $56k. But those that invested early will have higher chances of making good profits ( most of us that have some quantity of Bitcoin are in good profit 😊recently) due to bitcoin recent price movement. And we all know that this just the starting so let's keep our DCAing on. Because there's still alot of breakthrough bitcoin got to undergo like reaching $100k+ and more.

You guys are still  getting it wrong, you guys should change your concept of what a dip is, a dip is any price under the last ATH of bitcoin and investing now is still a very good dip. Those that invested as low as 35k and you investing all of you bought on dip and what really matter isn't when you bought but how you hold, can you hold long enough to build 3nough compounding value on your portfolio.

In as much as your expression look some worth contradictory you sound more like a trader or gambler. however, attempting to time the market is never an ideal approach because you are exposing yourself to greater risk of creating an emotional unrest of monitoring the downward and upward trends of market condition. But with your dca method you can enter the market and make purchases irrespective of price and time. You can dca when there is an upward trends and buy wholesomely when there is a downward trends.

Although buying when there is downward trends can be great but however, it is not about when you bought but how persistent you are with your holding and make benefits from compounding of your invested value.

We are just entering a bullish market which makes still a great timing for anyone who wishes to invest at this point, in as much as the previous ATH has not been met I don't see any reason why new investors can't make profit investing right  now. Like I said in one of my comment create a good DCA plan for your investment as the bullish market is not a period for losses but a time for profit making to both old and newly investors. Bitcoin investment is all about holding for long as that's where the secret to profit making lies.

Sir your totally right, accumulating bitcoin is far easier than holding, cause that's a matter of disciple and character which it's not very easy to develop, no matter the strategy we use in accumulating bitcoin really doesn't matter, either you use a good and flexible strategy like DCA or you LUMP SUM it doesn't help you hold your bitcoin, can you have the discipline to hold even when the bear comes and bitcoin goes down in price, many people are very happy to hold because they haven't been in bitcoin for long enough, or started not up to six months ago when the price was still at 25, 35k or 40k and are now on a profit on their portfolio, some many be tempted to sell and acquire that small profit gain or some might still be patient untill the price starts falling then sell out of fear.

One thign I've come to understand and believe is that it's easier to buy than to hold, even sir Jay mentioned once that he sold of a potion of his bitcoin, and I believe that this thigns can happen to us as early investors but we must try our best to continue and learn from our mistakes until we can build that character that can hold for long.

And that is why it's good to invest your disposable funds so you won't be on much panic to sell out of over allocation since its an investment that you plan on holding for up to 20 years, yes its good to front load your investment if you have more funds and can bear the consequences of your action, but if your starting and with low capital then iys good to be less aggressive and plan yourself on how to raise your income or reduce your expenses.

Another reason many of us sell our holdings is due to inproper planing and building our emergency funds and reserves and floats, thus are like our backbones that help us to easily hold and still remove pressure from ourselves to sell, like emergency funds would easily help us when we have a serious challenge like a health issue or some sudden emergency we won't have to sell our holdings to fix such problems.

Some people also sell for lack of knowledge about bitcoin potential or pressure from no coiners and low coiners, I knoW this cause many persons that are well active and allocating here feel even more enthusiastic to hold more and as tho there are in the right track cause they are amongst a community of fellow holders.

I totally disagree with this statement here, when Investing in Bitcoin, the DCA strategy is the best, because as long as you are a long term investor or a long term thinker, you don't have to wait for after the halving before you invest, because we are still in the early days of Bitcoin, and due to it limited supply, it has the potential to skyrocket way much above 100k that most investors are even speculating, so to me, the essence of all this is that, as long as you are accumulating Bitcoin through the DCA method, anytime is good to acquire Bitcoin irrespective of the current price before the bull run start.

Secondly, do you know that sometimes the lower price you are waiting for Bitcoin to fall to before you buy, might not come? So it's best you seize the opportunity and acquire Bitcoin now through the DCA method.

What are you saying? You are getting it all wrong. If this is your opinion or suggestion to beginners, then you are misleading them. Every price mark of bitcoin is probably a good time to buy bitcoin. Yesterday bitcoin was 51k and i woke up this morning to see it is now 56k. As of yesterday, many persons did not buy bitcoin because they feel the price is high and they are waiting for the dip or the price to low so that they can wait. Now today the price is 56k they ow wish they had bought the bitcoin yesterday.

Even at 56k is a good entry price. If you keep waiting for the price to go low, you will continue waiting till you are unable to buy bitcoin at all.  I would advise anyone that haven't bought or who is waiting to buy when it low to buy now. There was a lot of panic today after the price went up 10%. We have seen lots of troops buying bitcoin on Binance exchange. The fluctuation was massive today, which is a sign that bitcoin is moving to 60k. Unbelievers are now turning to believers, and you are still here waiting for the price to go low. You can keep waiting but don't advise others to do so. 

There is no regret if you bought bitcoin and the price gets low a little when at the long run it will surely exceed your threshold. You will only regret if you are into bitcoin for quick gains and that is not the topic of discussion here. Buying for the long run should be the priority.

We want to invest in bitcoin we should only focus on the bullish market so therefore I believe that those people who invest during the time the price of bitcoin is low that the people that make profit when the price go up so I will advise every beginner to invest during the time the price of bitcoin is low so that they will not experience any loss, to accumulate bitcoin, you have to wait experience having before you purchase bitcoin, so that you will not be victim when the price go down.

some people who invest in bitcoin always be rewarded of it when they experience bullrun, so I believe that it’s a good investors that know the actual time they can invest and make huge profits, in normal circumstances the best time to invest is during bearish seasons.

I agree with you that there is nothing wrong if a trader wants to participate in this thread; what will only be wrong is if the person is spamming the thread. If the trader is consistent in learning from this thread, he or she will realize that holding bitcoin for the long term is the right thing to do. I think this thread is very much open to anyone interested in bitcoin.

Yeah with a sub dip may be and better opportunities  to hold  it almost halving but  Bitcoin is kinda making  higher supports  much more faster than expected so any chance missed might not be recovered. The best time to start DCA or buy BTC  is now,the second best time is still now.

Anywhere below the last ATH is a fucking dip, so it doesn't matter when you bought what matters is if your holding.

Your right about DCA , if anyone has been using DCA since last year till now, he would have been buying on a monthly average that is very low compared to the last ATH and we are expecting the price to reach 60k or even exceed the last ATH this week. But I don't care, I have currently increased my DCA allocation for the main time till bitcoin exceed the ATH then I'll bring it back to normal, I don't want to miss out on this last set of dips we are seeing right now, if you are looking at the chart on a time from of 5 years then you would understand that all this while we have been on a very long period of dips, so even those trying to time the dip has been fooling themselves cause we have been on a dip ever since the last ATH 😀.

Your opinion might be different from those investors plan and besides they had a target to hold for 4 years, anyone can actually choose to hold more than 4 or 5 years if only you have the finance for investing, I think when it comes to bitcoin investment you should not push yourself with an amount you can't maintain like the way people sold their property to invest in bitcoin, very bad. Bitcoin investment is just for long term and this is the actually reason you hardly see people celebrate about their short term investment, using the dca is not just for the low salary earners or newbies only, this strategy is generally meant for investors but sometimes people still choose to buy aggressively, I view people like this as wealthy people  cause if a low income earner decides to buy aggressively without a plan he might end up with loss.
Firstly before investing you must have a goal and a plan of your weekly or monthly buy, if possible don't chase different predictions about the price cause this can be misleading at times when you continue to track the price. The basic truth is investors who hold for long have the ability to sustain their investment and once you have the finance then you've taken one step to your journey, they're other things attached to investment plan tho.

We should not only focus on the bull market that comes with this, we have to understand that during and after halving, there comes a highly volatile market season whereby you can experience both bull and bear within the same time, even though the bull will always prevail at the long run, but we must never forget on how it such clumsy with high volatility and we must be able to set a target or limit to the rate we may want to sell or buy in other not to miss out big opportunities during this period.  

I'll nitpick that part of your post because it's a common misunderstanding and it truly needs to be corrected every time it is mentioned or posted.

- The halving DOESN'T lower supply, it halves the block rewards the miners receive for finding a block. That lowers the quantity of Bitcoins sold and if demand stays the same, the price goes up after each halving cycle.


In the context of Bitcoin, we probably have two more cycles of UP, no?

You are actually correct about that. No matter how the distractionmay come from many participants, there is need to keep a particular thread on track because people always have there ways of deviating from initial plan, which the main purpose of the thread is mainly emphasising on how to HODl which is not only the only mistake people do, they usually go to other place and make that same mistake. I can relate to a particular thread which is like a rule and it say that it is not advisable to deviate from the initial discussion of any thread and making it turn to another thing but trust humans they will surely do it there own way. The best way to control such situation is by making it clear to anybody who is trying to deviate from the discussion. And if the person choose not to continue the thread he should look for the thread that will suit his sole purpose of curiosity. There is no how your car can break down and you take it to fuel station why you need to fix it in a mechanic shop. Each thread is like a solution to a particular problem and you can never leave to ask for solutions in right place and start asking questions in a wrong place.

Sure. In any thread like this there will be a lot of questions to know the important or reasons of the dip and hold. Expecially for those whom have not participated in the thread. Sometimes even people in the thread for long also use to be moved by Speculation and will come back and creat a wrong impression, by questioning the thread, only to discover that the thread has built a strong community which is kicking against trading and shitcoin investment. I know most people here might be doing trading but can not discuss it here. Because of the porpos of this thread. I am alway happy when ever I go outside the forum and see almost all participants of this thread mentioning or referencing DIP and HODL, it sound like an academy where they graduated from. And it's not a bad identy Afterall.

When there is consistency in everything we are doing, we are definitely going to achieve great results. They were able to get such portfolio. Many of are shouting DCA here but not all of them are consistent in doing it. But one thing is certain if we are consistent with our DCA we will be surprise by what we are going to achieve on the long run. Although it's not easy doing something consistently for four years, but once your sight is set on the benefit that you will achieve after the sacrifice, I don't think anything will be able to distract you.  Everyone who what's to get good results, should not be distracted along the way while buying through DCA.

the interval of two to four years is still a short term investment and the outcome of the accumulated amount of BTC at the end of the different year is just basically a function of the amount they've separately invested for the period of time.
 With how close the margin is for the two people that made the investment, it surely reiterate the fact that HODling for longer period of time with the range of ten years is obviously the best way to go cause you're certain of am incredible margin at the end of the interval of years.

But it isn't out of place to occasionally look at how much your holding has increased with respect to time just to get the motivation and drive to continue accumulating more for a longer period of time but you shouldn't allow it become a distraction to see four year Holding as a big deal to quickly celebrate.

Yes, the best way to invest is to invest in the DCA method. I came across two pictures on twitter today, a person invested in DCA method for 4 years and slowly his investment amount was 0.25 btc. Another person invested in DCA method for a long period of 2 years and his investment amount turned into 0.20 BTC. So, these two pictures prove that if one can invest in DCA method for long term, his investment will gradually grow and become profitable. If you want to invest if you don't have enough funds then you continue to invest in DCA method for long term, one day you can own a good amount of bitcoins.