I am pretty sure that China is already a super power. They have the most foreign currency reserves in the world. They have one of the biggest economies in the world. They have nuclear weapons. They have a very large military and one of the strongest military's in the world. They hold a seat on the security council at the UN.
What more do they need for you to think they are a super power?
+1Agreed. I come from
International relations (IR) field of study and we already know from years that China (PRC) is at least
a "potential" Superpower. China is surely a
Great Power due to his enourmous capabilities (economic, military, population, ecc.) and was also recognized by other world Powers as such. Index like the
Composite Index of National Capability give also you a instant visual check on the situation. Giving ground to China "Second Superpower" status are also fact as the U.S.–China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), the so-called Group of Two (G-2) by which the U.S. implicitly recognize China (PRC) as such.
China has a major demographic problem because of the one child policy. Soon, it will have too much old people, a lowering of its active population and growing problems, just like Japan and now Europe.
Who knows what will happen 30 years from now? We could have immigration from other countries into China.
I would find this somewhat unlikely. The standard of living of people living in China is really not that great. They also are lacking many rights that 'free' people generally take for granted (freedom of the press, uncensored internet, ect)
They did make a big jump from communism to pseudo-free market.
So I guess change is possible.
I would say that China is still very far from being a free market. They have strict currency controls and keep their currency almost pegged to the dollar (They allow for small fluctuations on a daily basis). They also restrict the flow of ideas, information and speech. See the GFW and the recent blocking of bitcointalk.org from inside most of China
Soviet Union was a Superpower albeit it was not a free-market. Do you mean Soviet Union was not a Superpower and generation of IR scholars & pratictioners in Government Worldwide made a mistake recognizing the Soviet Union as such?
Any totalitarian government (even if toying with freemarket) have strict currency controls & restrict the flow of ideas, information and speech. But not all totalitarian government may be Great Powers (or even Superpowers).
Super power doesn't mean military might and economic prowess alone.
S
Soft power such as culture and influence still go a long way. And last time I check, every 3rd world school still insist children to learn English, not Chinese.
So Japan is a Superpower for you? I may agree that some soft power could be useful and may need to be taken in account but hard power still count a lot in the IR field & among states themselves. Do you look at the recent crisis in Ukraine/Eastern Europe? EU soft power prevented Russia from invading Ukraine (first in Crimea, then in the east of the country) utilizing her Hard Power (military, economic) to accomplish her goals?
European Union and its members have a lot of Soft Power but without Hard Power you end up on the wrong side of the history. Also Japan has a lot of Soft Power but isn't recognized by any world Power as a Superpower.
