citb0in Solo-Mining Group - BLOCK SOLVERS (english) - page 7.

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Quote from: akaki on January 15, 2023, 02:31:49 PM

Since the draws are independent for mining each new block, the chances are constant as long as the hash rate is constant and no matter how many times you repeat the mining attempts.

Correct.

Quote from: akaki on January 15, 2023, 02:31:49 PM

For me there is a huge mistake in the calculation of the winning chances
[...]
If the project of @Willi9974 is also based on the assumption that we increase the chances by mining for longer periods of time, then a lot of people might be loosing their money.

You seem to have something mixed up. Willi9974 meant the following: if you would for example mine with an existing total amount "x" with 25 PH/s hashrate for 6h duration, then the chances of a block hit are exactly the same as if you would mine with the same amount "x" with 50 PH/s for 3h duration, which with 5 PH/s hashrate for 30h duration. And this is a correct statement.

Solo mining as it is done here and also by Willi9984 is clear to everyone and should be considered gambling. You should only bet as much as you are willing to lose.
The values are derived from solochance.com. For further questions about the calculation and the background, you are welcome to contact the developer in this thread.

akaki

newbie

Activity: 22

Merit: 35

Hello,

For me there is a huge mistake in the calculation of the winning chances :

Quote

Chance calculation to hit a block in solo mining using different hashrate examples:

at 1 PH/s --> 1 in 267.342 per block or 1 in 1.857 per 24h
at 2.5 PH/s --> 1 in 106,937 per block or 1 in 743 per 24h
at 5 PH/s --> 1 in 53,468 per block or 1 in 371 per 24h
at 10 PH/s --> 1 in 26,734 per block or 1 in 186 per 24h
at 25 PH/s --> 1 in 10,694 per block or 1 in 74 per 24h
at 50 PH/s --> 1 in 5,347 per block or 1 in 37 per 24h

You can't say for example that there are 144 blocks mined each 24h (=1 each 10 min) and thus if we run the miner 24h non-stop we multiply our chances by 144.
Yet this is the reasonning applied as for example : with a hash rate of 50 PH/s --> chance per block = 1/5347 --> chance per 24h = 144/5347 = 1/37 which is false.

Since the draws are independent for mining each new block, the chances are constant as long as the hash rate is constant and no matter how many times you repeat the mining attempts.

There is a topic in wikipedia that gives a better explanation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

If the project of @Willi9974 is also based on the assumption that we increase the chances by mining for longer periods of time, then a lot of people might be loosing their money.

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Nice

You have been successfully registered for the power run #20 with 100 PH/s. I am also very excited and looking forward to it. We just need more people to join and hopefully we can launch this power run soon. Stay tuned Cool

yoshimitsu777

newbie

Activity: 72

Merit: 0

perfect.i will also join power 20 run and send money next week or so
100 petahash very big and nice

i just deposited 0.007 BTC for participating in power run with 100 ph/s

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: yoshimitsu777
My stake: 0.007 BTC for #020
My TXID: 25251fc1621579e6e665dbbd8d2869ee320728850bd0e340c8fd48d92360c73f
My payout address: bc1qana6786aa038zcct3w0uasr2qt4l07xs6re7fx
My vote for hash rate: 100 ph/s
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

i am totally excited and cant wait for it

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Hello Yoshimitsu777. You are successfully registered for round #010 and #011.

Additional info:
Power run #20 has been updated and is open for deposits. Stake per slot is 0.007 BTC. We rent the enormous hashrate of 100 PH/s for about 3 to 3.5 hours.

With this tremendous hash rate we would have very good chances to crack the block. Let's rock that block Wink

yoshimitsu777

newbie

Activity: 72

Merit: 0

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: yoshimitsu777
My stake: 0.002 BTC for #010 and #011
My TXID: 6cd236222be8ec2b918289272c12bc9c943739ee1459204888a80bfeb4093eb2
My payout address: bc1qana6786aa038zcct3w0uasr2qt4l07xs6re7fx
My vote for hash rate: 5 PH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Hi Jack_Dennis,

welcome onboard

you have been registered for run #010.

Good luck and thanks for joining.

Jack_Dennis

newbie

Activity: 3

Merit: 0

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: Jack_Dennis
My stake: 0.001 BTC for #010
My TXID: f313b93fe3d8e1f62d92ce72c2cc89b3ad55fccab67165b32293dda790086234
My payout address: bc1qm342dsrkh3szjf0s7x558tl4whelc4xls66gv4
My vote for hash rate: 2.5 P
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Alright c1pzo. As per your request, I've removed your stake from run #010 to #012 and moved it to Run #009. So run #009 is full and was started a few minutes ago. We have 5 PH/s for 10h21min and hopefully we crack the Christmas block. Keep your fingers crossed for us, good luck everyone!

EDIT:
Run #009 is over, unfortunately no block mined. We have reached a best share of 127.68 G. In the rental period there were a few dropouts, so we were generously given 1 extra hour for free by the operator. It all worked out, because we received a total of 102% of the advertised hash rate, so everything was okay.

Let's go to the next run, maybe the round number # 010 will bring us more luck? Line up now BlockSolvers and let's finally dig a block.

If a few more people come forward with a 0.001 BTC stake, then we could organize a New Year's Eve run and try our luck at the turn of the new year. Let's go solo miners. The stake of 0,001 BTC should be easy to realize for most of you Lips sealed

Maybe we will get it done until tonight and we can start a run. Who knows, maybe we'll have New Year's luck

From the bottom of my heart a wish a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2023 to you and yours.
Above all, good health combined with lots of love and happiness! All the best for 2023 !!

c1pzo

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

Ok thank you citb0in for your quick response ,I want to do like SANGR3AL and move my participations on the 009 so if you agree roll it on 5 ph

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Hi c1pzo,

I don't set it myself, the pool (CKpool) does it automatically, the difficulty is set to 1 million (1,000,000) for the hash rate category we usually mine in. It can vary, called "varDiff" and so the diff gets synced between the pool and the miner to achieve an optimum value. Keep in mind that the stats on the CKpool are only updated every 60sec. So if you press F5 several times to refresh the page, you will only see a refresh of the data displayed there every 60 sec.

According to your wish, I have set the voting for the upcoming round #009 to 5 PH/s.

c1pzo

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

Okkk.. sorry my mistake looking quickly it looks like it's not moving.
So you lock the diff? .100000000 why does it change like this?

"shares": 406436098449,"shares": 409759098449

Whatever i want to change my vote to 5 PH/s for RUN#009 we have to change to find the winning recipe.

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

how do you come to the conclusion that shares are rejected? that live stats do not reveal any signs of rejected shares. The line you highlighted are the amount of shares times the share difficulty.

Run #008 finished and unfortunately went without a block hit. Our best share we achieved was 39.38 G but we set a new record in total diff transmitted with 44.8 G in this hash rate category. Not bad and with a little luck it might have worked out.
Run #009 has 3 slots open and we could start that next round soon. Let's get this block in year 2022 BlockSolvers ...

c1pzo

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

"shares": 406563098449, are all rejected Huh

// 20221225071948
// https://solo.ckpool.org/users/1BTC4ALL6a2K1d4Ac4JjNJX7pgfRaaaZNd

{
"hashrate1m": "3.17P",
"hashrate5m": "2.54P",
"hashrate1hr": "2.42P",
"hashrate1d": "1.39P",
"hashrate7d": "497T",
"lastshare": 1671971101,
"workers": 9,
"shares": 406436098449,
"bestshare": 2524747400019.633,
"bestever": 2524747400019,
"worker": [
{
"workername": "1BTC4ALL6a2K1d4Ac4JjNJX7pgfRaaaZNd.2500T-22h",
"hashrate1m": "3.17P",
"hashrate5m": "2.54P",
"hashrate1hr": "2.42P",
"hashrate1d": "1.39P",
"hashrate7d": "277T",
"lastshare": 1671971101,
"shares": 41482000000,
"bestshare": 39383470032.04522,
"bestever": 39383470032
}
]
}

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Dear c1pzo,

a very generous gesture for which I would like to express my sincere thanks on behalf of the citb0in BlockSolvers group. Hopefully this will be our lucky charm!

Member Sangr3al has reallocated his stake from three future runs and put it into the current run #008. So Run #008 is full and also started in the meantime. Thanks to c1pzo's extra satoshis, we were able to set Run #008 to last exactly 22h, otherwise it would be a few minutes less. Many thanks again at this point.

RUN #008 has been started and is on-going ...
=> Live Stats CKpool <=

Dear Block Solvers, good luck to all of us and most of all Merry Christmas to everyone out there, including the Grinch Cheesy

Stay healthy, best wishes to you and yours.

c1pzo

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

The 0.00036722 excess is for the BLOCK SOLVERS group
hope it is the little magic touch that was missing to find a block.

thank you citb0in, it's been a long time I hoped to see a group like yours born.

Merry Christmas everyone aslo to
kano the grinch.

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Hello c1pzo and welcome on board

You have been successfully registered for runs #008 - #012. However, I saw that you overpaid 0.00036722 BTC. Was that by mistake or did you just want to donate the rest to the BLOCK SOLVERS group for a good cause? Grin

If you want, I can send you back this amount of overpaid 0.00036722 BTC minus a small transaction fee to the payout address you provided or another one of your choice. Or alternatively you can send 0.00063278 BTC and register for round #013. Tell me what you prefer.

If 3 more participants register until tonight or tomorrow, run #008 and #009 would be ready to start. I'm curious, maybe it's still a Christmas gift? Wink

Good luck to all of us and have a Merry Christmas.

c1pzo

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

Name: c1pzo
My stake:0.005 #008 - #012
My TXID: 2e4319c3130209c02236a2accfbecdd96172d92cebbe0214db568337967603ee:8
My payout address: 3QPixYTwXeXjjTD2CFSWh89pYBrDt7EGZb
My vote for hash rate: 2.5PH/s

citb0in

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 731

Bitcoin g33k

Hello juandaaguirre2 and thanks for your stake. You have been registered for runs #008-012

Good luck.

EDIT:
Hello mondayshot and welcome on board. You have been registered for runs #008-015. Good luck

EDIT: Both run #008 and #009 still have 4 slots available. Anyone who feels like starting a X-MAS run could still join in. If there are still 4 participants for the two runs, we could start one run on Christmas Eve (24/Dec) and the other one on Christmas Day (25/Dec). The runs would probably take place with 2,5 PH/s if you look at the current votings, that would be about 21h runtime per run. Stake is only 0.001 BTC

Let's be surprised, maybe there is a gift for us?

juandaaguirre2

newbie

Activity: 3

Merit: 0

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: juandaaguirre2
My stake: 0.005 BTC #008 - #012
My TXID: abd74cd97c773db15a4334c698316158dedeb158c4c156a63a30c7258e02c50a
My payout address: bc1qevxhk2086flnrj70fyju273sxkdp63yf8w7ge6
My vote for hash rate: 2.5PH/s
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Topic: citb0in Solo-Mining Group - BLOCK SOLVERS (english) - page 7. (Read 3808 times)