Topic: citb0in Solo-Mining Group - BLOCK SOLVERS (english) - page 7. (Read 4252 times)

In my opinion, two different statements are considered, both of which are correct and are unintentionally mixed, which is why they lead to different opinions.

A)
What akaki meant is that the odds calculation related to the block is correct. To illustrate it in another example: you have a dice and the goal is to roll a six. You are only allowed to roll once every 10min. To the question "What is the chance to roll a six?" the correct answer is always the same, it is "1/6", so the probability is 0.16667 % to roll a six. Just because you are allowed to roll again the dice 10min later, it does not mean that the probability to roll a six increases. It always and steadily remains 1/6.

B)
What mikeywith and willi9974 mean refers to the comparison between using 50 PH/s for 3h or renting 10 PH/s for 30h with the same money available for the hashrate rent. Here, the factor of the amount of use comes into consideration, since you have to rent the hashrate on the marketplace at the prices available. And inevitably coupled to the hash rate and the price is also the factor time. Therefore, this consideration should only be compared within this group (B), but not mixed with (A).

What the creator of the solochance.com website and many others do is: they multiply/divide the probability of a block hit (related to the block) by the number of 10min periods and thus mix the result with time. However, the time factor has no consideration in the probability calculation. The result of the thus faked probability is thereby glossed over.  At least that's how I understood it, which is why I think that both statements are correct.

And a second point is: when you rent the hashrate, the more hashrate you rent at the same time, the higher the price, you get less shares for the same budget. So rather rent less speed but longer time.
At the end the same price, but you get more shares. Cost per share is lower at lower speed. Supply and demand on a hash rental place.

Best regards,
Willi

They do not increase the chances by mining for a longer period with a lower hashrate, but also, no one is losing money, I am not sure why are you taking the time factor out of the equation when you are hashing against x for x period.

To put this in a simpler form, when you pay 100$ you get 100 shares, in other words, 100 shots to solve a block, whether you take those chances in 1 minute or over the course of 10 days it makes exactly no difference, the chances of those 100 shares hitting a block remain the same.

What really matters here is the TOTAL NUMBER of shares you submit, not how FAST you submit them, every share is an independent event that has the ability to be a block solver, if what you think is true then mining pools would operate in a different manner.

Binance and Viabtc will join forces to increase their hashrate, say each has 10EH worth of hashrate, they would mine for Binance wallet with 20EH for 12 hours, and then 20EH for Viabtc wallet for the remaining 12 hours, and then at the end of the day, they would end up with more coins than having mined individually for 24 hours with 10EH each, that is not true by any means.

The fact is, that 20EH produced 20EH per second for 12 hours which is the same number of shares that 2*10EH*24 hours, you are missing a major point here which is the power you rent is sold as in Hashes per SECONDS.

And as for the Gambler's fallacy, it has nothing to do with why OP's initial numbers are correct,  not sure why he agreed to your claim and changed the post.


If anyone still thinks that 50PH for 3 hours doesn't have the exact same chances of hitting a block with 25PH for 6 hours, go ahead and email all the large 10 pools that make up 90% of the hashrate and tell them you found a cheat code for mining, let them join their 300EH together and mine to one wallet every 24/10 hours so they can increase their chances of hitting blocks and end up with more BTC by the end of the month.

The more I have dealt with it, the more clearly I agree with you. You are absolutely right. There's no guarantee you'll hit a block with any amount of hashrate, simply better odds the more hash rate you use. Time is useless in that calculation. I have adjusted the original post in this section. Thank you for your attention and advice.

Sorry, I insist because people might be fooled (and loose money) by the chances of mining a block that were announced.

You say that I'm correct about the Gambler's Fallacy but you are still talking about time. Hashrate and only hashrate matters for the probability of mining a block.

[chance with 50 PH/s for 3h] > [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h] > [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h] that is simply because you can remove "for xh".

The post should be edited to :

Chances to mine a block are :

at   1 PH/s --> 1 in 267.342 per block
at 2.5 PH/s --> 1 in 106,937 per block
at   5 PH/s --> 1 in  53,468 per block
at  10 PH/s --> 1 in  26,734 per block
at  25 PH/s --> 1 in  10,694 per block
at  50 PH/s --> 1 in   5,347 per block

and yet I didn't check the latter, it could be worse.

The calculation in "solochance.com" is also wrong. I don't know if it's intentionally to just encourage people to use a solo-mining service.

Correct.


You seem to have something mixed up. Willi9974 meant the following: if you would for example mine with an existing total amount "x" with 25 PH/s hashrate for 6h duration, then the chances of a block hit are exactly the same as if you would mine with the same amount "x" with 50 PH/s for 3h duration, which with 5 PH/s hashrate for 30h duration. And this is a correct statement.

Solo mining as it is done here and also by Willi9984 is clear to everyone and should be considered gambling. You should only bet as much as you are willing to lose.
The values are derived from solochance.com. For further questions about the calculation and the background, you are welcome to contact the developer in this thread.

Hello,

For me there is a huge mistake in the calculation of the winning chances :


You can't say for example that there are 144 blocks mined each 24h (=1 each 10 min) and thus if we run the miner 24h non-stop we multiply our chances by 144.
Yet this is the reasonning applied as for example : with a hash rate of 50 PH/s --> chance per block = 1/5347 --> chance per 24h = 144/5347 = 1/37 which is false.

Since the draws are independent for mining each new block, the chances are constant as long as the hash rate is constant and no matter how many times you repeat the mining attempts.

There is a topic in wikipedia that gives a better explanation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

If the project of @Willi9974 is also based on the assumption that we increase the chances by mining for longer periods of time, then a lot of people might be loosing their money.

Nice  You have been successfully registered for the power run #20 with 100 PH/s. I am also very excited and looking forward to it. We just need more people to join and hopefully we can launch this power run soon. Stay tuned 

perfect.i will also join power 20 run and send money next week or so
100 petahash very big and nice

i just deposited 0.007 BTC for participating in power run with 100 ph/s

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: yoshimitsu777
My stake: 0.007 BTC for #020
My TXID: 25251fc1621579e6e665dbbd8d2869ee320728850bd0e340c8fd48d92360c73f
My payout address: bc1qana6786aa038zcct3w0uasr2qt4l07xs6re7fx
My vote for hash rate: 100 ph/s
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

i am totally excited and cant wait for it

Hello Yoshimitsu777. You are successfully registered for round #010 and #011.  

Additional info:
Power run #20 has been updated and is open for deposits. Stake per slot is 0.007 BTC. We rent the enormous hashrate of 100 PH/s for about 3 to 3.5 hours.



With this tremendous hash rate we would have very good chances to crack the block. Let's rock that block  

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: yoshimitsu777
My stake: 0.002 BTC for #010 and #011
My TXID: 6cd236222be8ec2b918289272c12bc9c943739ee1459204888a80bfeb4093eb2
My payout address: bc1qana6786aa038zcct3w0uasr2qt4l07xs6re7fx
My vote for hash rate: 5 PH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hi Jack_Dennis,

welcome onboard you have been registered for run #010.

Good luck and thanks for joining.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Name: Jack_Dennis
My stake: 0.001 BTC for #010
My TXID: f313b93fe3d8e1f62d92ce72c2cc89b3ad55fccab67165b32293dda790086234
My payout address: bc1qm342dsrkh3szjf0s7x558tl4whelc4xls66gv4
My vote for hash rate: 2.5 P
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Alright c1pzo. As per your request, I've removed your stake from run #010 to #012 and moved it to Run #009. So run #009 is full and was started a few minutes ago. We have 5 PH/s for 10h21min and hopefully we crack the Christmas block. Keep your fingers crossed for us, good luck everyone!

EDIT:
Run #009 is over, unfortunately no block mined. We have reached a best share of 127.68 G. In the rental period there were a few dropouts, so we were generously given 1 extra hour for free by the operator. It all worked out, because we received a total of 102% of the advertised hash rate, so everything was okay.

Let's go to the next run, maybe the round number # 010 will bring us more luck? Line up now BlockSolvers and let's finally dig a block.

If a few more people come forward with a 0.001 BTC stake, then we could organize a New Year's Eve run and try our luck at the turn of the new year. Let's go solo miners. The stake of 0,001 BTC should be easy to realize for most of you Maybe we will get it done until tonight and we can start a run. Who knows, maybe we'll have New Year's luck

---

From the bottom of my heart a wish a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2023 to you and yours.
Above all, good health combined with lots of love and happiness! All the best for 2023 !!

Ok thank you citb0in for your quick response ,I want to do like  SANGR3AL and move my participations on the 009 so if you agree roll it on 5 ph

Hi c1pzo,

I don't set it myself, the pool (CKpool) does it automatically, the difficulty is set to 1 million (1,000,000) for the hash rate category we usually mine in. It can vary, called "varDiff" and so the diff gets synced between the pool and the miner to achieve an optimum value. Keep in mind that the stats on the CKpool are only updated every 60sec. So if you press F5 several times to refresh the page, you will only see a refresh of the data displayed there every 60 sec.

According to your wish, I have set the voting for the upcoming round #009 to 5 PH/s.

Okkk.. sorry my mistake looking quickly it looks like it's not moving.
So you lock the diff? .100000000  why does it change like this?

"shares": 406436098449,"shares": 409759098449

Whatever  i want to change my vote to 5 PH/s for RUN#009 we have to change to find the winning recipe.

how do you come to the conclusion that shares are rejected? that live stats do not reveal any signs of rejected shares. The line you highlighted are the amount of shares times the share difficulty.

Run #008 finished and unfortunately went without a block hit. Our best share we achieved was 39.38 G but we set a new record in total diff transmitted with 44.8 G in this hash rate category. Not bad and with a little luck it might have worked out.
Run #009 has 3 slots open and we could start that next round soon. Let's get this block in year 2022 BlockSolvers ...

"shares": 406563098449, are all rejected

// 20221225071948
// https://solo.ckpool.org/users/1BTC4ALL6a2K1d4Ac4JjNJX7pgfRaaaZNd

{
  "hashrate1m": "3.17P",
  "hashrate5m": "2.54P",
  "hashrate1hr": "2.42P",
  "hashrate1d": "1.39P",
  "hashrate7d": "497T",
  "lastshare": 1671971101,
  "workers": 9,
  "shares": 406436098449,             
  "bestshare": 2524747400019.633,
  "bestever": 2524747400019,
  "worker": [
    {
      "workername": "1BTC4ALL6a2K1d4Ac4JjNJX7pgfRaaaZNd.2500T-22h",
      "hashrate1m": "3.17P",
      "hashrate5m": "2.54P",
      "hashrate1hr": "2.42P",
      "hashrate1d": "1.39P",
      "hashrate7d": "277T",
      "lastshare": 1671971101,
      "shares": 41482000000,
      "bestshare": 39383470032.04522,
      "bestever": 39383470032
    }
  ]
}

Dear c1pzo,

a very generous gesture for which I would like to express my sincere thanks on behalf of the citb0in BlockSolvers group. Hopefully this will be our lucky charm!

Member Sangr3al has reallocated his stake from three future runs and put it into the current run #008. So Run #008 is full and also started in the meantime. Thanks to c1pzo's extra satoshis, we were able to set Run #008 to last exactly 22h, otherwise it would be a few minutes less. Many thanks again at this point.

RUN #008 has been started and is on-going ...
=> Live Stats CKpool <=

Dear Block Solvers, good luck to all of us and most of all Merry Christmas to everyone out there, including the Grinch Stay healthy, best wishes to you and yours.