[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 104.

Nefario

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 513

GLBSE Support [email protected]

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 02:06:51 PM

Quote from: Nefario on August 20, 2012, 01:58:59 PM

Any investment in a BTC based business is also, by definition an investment in BTC, if the price of BTC rises, then your investment in fiat terms is worth more (and choosing to invest with BTC has paid off), if the business itself provides a return on the BTC invested then it also becomes BTC profitable and is doubly paid off.

But then the reverse is again true, and if this investment is priced at the top of a BTC bubble then it's going to be bad if it pops, if BTC is priced at a stable rate (not what BTC is really known for, especially recently) then it comes down to the business end and how profitable the business is, how much it grows etc. If BTC is at the lower price range then you stand to make a significant profit providing the BTC valuation remains the same and even more so if it grows.

Yes. This is exactly correct. Though, the volatility itself of any currency is generally viewed as an overall risk.

We'll have less volatility when there are more financial tools available in bitcoin land, at the very least the widespread availability of options contracts for most currencies.

Factory

sr. member

Activity: 259

Merit: 250

Quote from: Nefario on August 20, 2012, 01:58:59 PM

Any investment in a BTC based business is also, by definition an investment in BTC, if the price of BTC rises, then your investment in fiat terms is worth more (and choosing to invest with BTC has paid off), if the business itself provides a return on the BTC invested then it also becomes BTC profitable and is doubly paid off.

But then the reverse is again true, and if this investment is priced at the top of a BTC bubble then it's going to be bad if it pops, if BTC is priced at a stable rate (not what BTC is really known for, especially recently) then it comes down to the business end and how profitable the business is, how much it grows etc. If BTC is at the lower price range then you stand to make a significant profit providing the BTC valuation remains the same and even more so if it grows.

Yes. This is exactly correct. Though, the volatility itself of any currency is generally viewed as an overall risk.

Nefario

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 513

GLBSE Support [email protected]

Any investment in a BTC based business is also, by definition an investment in BTC, if the price of BTC rises, then your investment in fiat terms is worth more (and choosing to invest with BTC has paid off), if the business itself provides a return on the BTC invested then it also becomes BTC profitable and is doubly paid off.

But then the reverse is again true, and if this investment is priced at the top of a BTC bubble then it's going to be bad if it pops, if BTC is priced at a stable rate (not what BTC is really known for, especially recently) then it comes down to the business end and how profitable the business is, how much it grows etc. If BTC is at the lower price range then you stand to make a significant profit providing the BTC valuation remains the same and even more so if it grows.

Dalkore

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1026

Mining since 2010 & Hosting since 2012

Watching and researching.

Factory

sr. member

Activity: 259

Merit: 250

Quote from: evoorhees on August 20, 2012, 01:21:25 PM

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 12:42:42 PM

However, A company dealing purely in BTC is ultra-risky compared to traditional investments. Therefor, a P/E of 10 seems unwarranted.

Well, normally, companies that have large growth potential have high P/E's (15-50x range) and companies that have little growth potential have low P/E's (5-12x range).

Based on its growth potential, SatoshiDICE should have a higher P/E than what I've priced it at. With that said, I understand all Bitcoin companies are high risk and thus perhaps a lower P/E is warranted, so that's what I did. I think in any case, the argument that at 10x P/E ratio is "way out of line" is silly. It's a conservative valuation for one of the most successful bitcoin businesses that has ever existed.

Bids have started to stack up on MPEx for these shares already. Of course, if the marketplace doesn't have the appetite for all the shares, then that's okay, for I'll just keep the shares and the revenue (it'll make the negotiations with the Macau gaming companies easier Wink

).

Though, the Bitcoin investment world could do well with some "reasonable investments based on proven, transparent business models" as opposed to fleeting 7% per week shenanigans.

You are still comparing BTC-based valution to the evaluations of established companies trading on major world exchanges..... Yes your company is large and high growth, but you seem to be completely ignoring the fact that you are dealing solely in one of the most volatile currencies.

The fact that orders have appeared for the shares is irrelevant to whether or not investors could stand to profit. Just do a quick check on Facebook's recent IPO.

evoorhees

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1023

Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 12:42:42 PM

However, A company dealing purely in BTC is ultra-risky compared to traditional investments. Therefor, a P/E of 10 seems unwarranted.

Well, normally, companies that have large growth potential have high P/E's (15-50x range) and companies that have little growth potential have low P/E's (5-12x range).

Based on its growth potential, SatoshiDICE should have a higher P/E than what I've priced it at. With that said, I understand all Bitcoin companies are high risk and thus perhaps a lower P/E is warranted, so that's what I did. I think in any case, the argument that at 10x P/E ratio is "way out of line" is silly. It's a conservative valuation for one of the most successful bitcoin businesses that has ever existed.

Bids have started to stack up on MPEx for these shares already. Of course, if the marketplace doesn't have the appetite for all the shares, then that's okay, for I'll just keep the shares and the revenue (it'll make the negotiations with the Macau gaming companies easier Wink

).

Though, the Bitcoin investment world could do well with some "reasonable investments based on proven, transparent business models" as opposed to fleeting 7% per week shenanigans.

Rassah

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1035

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 12:42:42 PM

However, A company dealing purely in BTC is ultra-risky compared to traditional investments. Therefor, a P/E of 10 seems unwarranted.

Can you elaborate on this please? I would expect a company that deals in only one currency to be much less risky, since there is no currency exchange risk. A company that sells shares or promises returns in BTC, if it cashes out any portion of its holdings into USD, has a huge risk of Bitcoin value increasing, and the company not being able to exchange enough USD back into BTC to keep up (another reason BTC HYIPs are so dangerous: if they promise 7% return, do their business in USD, and if BTC appreciates by 3%, they have to cover the 7% return AND the 3% BTC increase).

Factory

sr. member

Activity: 259

Merit: 250

Quote from: evoorhees on August 20, 2012, 12:29:16 PM

Quote from: wirmola on August 20, 2012, 12:12:19 PM

I would love to have a pice of s.dice, but the deal sucks for everyone else except for you.
And I can't see how the company would keep it's value when bitcoin rallies against the other currencies.. Sad

thumbs down.

LOL how does the deal suck? Cause it doesn't make 7000% per year? Man people have been spoiled

And, as mentioned, SatoshiDice volumes have GROWN while BTC appreciated against the dollar, meaning when the BTC was 2x as valuable as prior, the site had grown nominally in BTC, thus the actual growth of the site has been tremendous. Dividends are paid in BTC, so the extent to which BTC rallies against dollars is not as important as you're making it out to be.

Overall, I have nothing against your business model. Clearly you are large, have excellent growth, and are profitable.

However, A company dealing purely in BTC is ultra-risky compared to traditional investments. Therefor, a P/E of 10 seems unwarranted.

There are companies on major exchanges that, ex-cash, have a 10 P/E ratio + growth. Said companies are established and are in major industries, and are denominated in USD. While we all have our qualms with fiat currencies, the USD is much more stable than BTC, and therefor companies denominated in them are in general more stable.

Again, I think you have an excellent company, but the IPO does not seem reasonably priced for such major risks.

evoorhees

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1023

Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: wirmola on August 20, 2012, 12:12:19 PM

I would love to have a pice of s.dice, but the deal sucks for everyone else except for you.
And I can't see how the company would keep it's value when bitcoin rallies against the other currencies.. Sad

thumbs down.

LOL how does the deal suck? Cause it doesn't make 7000% per year? Man people have been spoiled

And, as mentioned, SatoshiDice volumes have GROWN while BTC appreciated against the dollar, meaning when the BTC was 2x as valuable as prior, the site had grown nominally in BTC, thus the actual growth of the site has been tremendous. Dividends are paid in BTC, so the extent to which BTC rallies against dollars is not as important as you're making it out to be.

Wolf Lazard

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Quote from: wirmola on August 20, 2012, 12:12:19 PM

I would love to have a pice of s.dice, but the deal sucks for everyone else except for you.
And I can't see how the company would keep it's value when bitcoin rallies against the other currencies.. Sad

thumbs down.

S.DICE deals only in Bitcoins.

wirmola

member

Activity: 111

Merit: 10

I would love to have a pice of s.dice, but the deal sucks for everyone else except for you.
And I can't see how the company would keep it's value when bitcoin rallies against the other currencies.. Sad

thumbs down.

Wolf Lazard

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 12:03:40 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on August 20, 2012, 11:50:01 AM

Quote from: ribuck on August 20, 2012, 11:18:39 AM

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 10:58:21 AM

In major markets I think a low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 is what most would consider a 'bargain.'

A low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 would indeed be a bargain. But the catch here is that SatoshiDice is so easy to copy that it may not be a growth stock.

An astute observer may realize that by offering shares, it becomes an interesting bet to simply buy shares of SatoshiDICE instead of build it all over again and hope to outdo its marketing and brand exposure and business relationships. Not many understand that SatoshiDICE has achieved certain things which are very hard for new entrants to overcome, I won't go into all the details but examples like the 6 of the top 7 Bitcoin addresses, the massive word of mouth advertising, and integration with Blockchain.info's wallet (and soon, mobile app) are relevant.

You can spend a few thousand BTC to build a competitor and try to take a few percent market share, or you can spend a few thousand BTC and own a few percent of SatoshiDICE itself. If you throw in costs of time, dev resources/opportunity cost, statistical modelling and security risks which SatoshiDICE has already accomplished, and the decision shouldn't be too difficult.

Edit: Also, an astute observer will realize that after the IPO, SatoshiDICE will have a war chest with which to battle any competitors into submission.

If that was how the world worked people would cease to innovate and just 'invest' in what already exists......

That is not how the world turns.

Evoorhees believes he can offer the best service.

People will invest their time and money in the top contenders over others.

Factory

sr. member

Activity: 259

Merit: 250

Quote from: evoorhees on August 20, 2012, 11:50:01 AM

Quote from: ribuck on August 20, 2012, 11:18:39 AM

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 10:58:21 AM

In major markets I think a low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 is what most would consider a 'bargain.'

A low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 would indeed be a bargain. But the catch here is that SatoshiDice is so easy to copy that it may not be a growth stock.

An astute observer may realize that by offering shares, it becomes an interesting bet to simply buy shares of SatoshiDICE instead of build it all over again and hope to outdo its marketing and brand exposure and business relationships. Not many understand that SatoshiDICE has achieved certain things which are very hard for new entrants to overcome, I won't go into all the details but examples like the 6 of the top 7 Bitcoin addresses, the massive word of mouth advertising, and integration with Blockchain.info's wallet (and soon, mobile app) are relevant.

You can spend a few thousand BTC to build a competitor and try to take a few percent market share, or you can spend a few thousand BTC and own a few percent of SatoshiDICE itself. If you throw in costs of time, dev resources/opportunity cost, statistical modelling and security risks which SatoshiDICE has already accomplished, and the decision shouldn't be too difficult.

Edit: Also, an astute observer will realize that after the IPO, SatoshiDICE will have a war chest with which to battle any competitors into submission.

If that was how the world worked people would cease to innovate and just 'invest' in what already exists......

That is not how the world turns.

smickles

sr. member

Activity: 446

Merit: 250

Alright, I've had enough people asking me about this. So...

I will offer the services of buying and holding shares of S.DICE for anyone who is interested.

For this service I will charge a 3% or 0.5 BTC fee per transaction (whichever is less).

PM me to arrange details.

evoorhees

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1023

Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: ribuck on August 20, 2012, 11:18:39 AM

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 10:58:21 AM

In major markets I think a low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 is what most would consider a 'bargain.'

A low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 would indeed be a bargain. But the catch here is that SatoshiDice is so easy to copy that it may not be a growth stock.

An astute observer may realize that by offering shares, it becomes an interesting bet to simply buy shares of SatoshiDICE instead of build it all over again and hope to outdo its marketing and brand exposure and business relationships. Not many understand that SatoshiDICE has achieved certain things which are very hard for new entrants to overcome, I won't go into all the details but examples like the 6 of the top 7 Bitcoin addresses, the massive word of mouth advertising, and integration with Blockchain.info's wallet (and soon, mobile app) are relevant.

You can spend a few thousand BTC to build a competitor and try to take a few percent market share, or you can spend a few thousand BTC and own a few percent of SatoshiDICE itself. If you throw in costs of time, dev resources/opportunity cost, statistical modelling and security risks which SatoshiDICE has already accomplished, and the decision shouldn't be too difficult.

Edit: Also, an astute observer will realize that after the IPO, SatoshiDICE will have a war chest with which to battle any competitors into submission.

evoorhees

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1023

Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: chmod755 on August 20, 2012, 11:05:16 AM

This reminds me of the FeedZeBirds asset, which was also a profitable website and after the IPO they seemed to have stopped working on it without paying a single dividend, because other projects became more important Roll Eyes

TL;DR S.DICE is overvalued - company should improve its management

A) FZB is nowhere near as profitable as SatoshiDICE currently is, and FZB did not promise dividends. Investing in FZB is a different strategy for very long term speculation on the price, because a service which enables anyone in the world to advertise via Twitter has serious potential. The future of FZB is likely to achieve a certain development and feature set, and then be sold for far higher to a purchasing company (how and when we seek this is a strategic decision), so owning shares in it long term is a bet on that possibility.

B) It probably looks like FZB dev has slowed because we're building some other infrastructure which FZB will be using.

freeAgent

sr. member

Activity: 240

Merit: 250

Quote from: evoorhees on August 20, 2012, 09:34:47 AM

Quote from: freeAgent on August 20, 2012, 08:03:47 AM

These "shares" bear more similarities to a an annuity than they do to actual equity. On top of this, I see nothing resembling an audited financial statement. Proceed at your own, in my opinion extreme, risk.

a) They are not an annuity. Their value will fluctuate with market demand based on dividends paid out, which are 100% of SatoshiDICE net profits.

b) Actually, the financial statements are better than "audited." All the information is mathematically verifiable using the blockchain, which is public. You don't have to trust any auditor, you can audit yourself any time of day to see exactly what SatoshiDICE is making (and some have done that in other threads on this forum).

c) Not sure if it's fair to call it "extreme risk" when comparing to other Bitcoin investments out there... you know what I'm talking about. It's verifiably profitable, and everyone knows where the profits come from. It's priced at 10x P/E and anyone who knows investing will understand this is a very reasonable valuation for a company with large growth potential and which already pays dividends.

SatoshiDICE is not a get-rich-in-three-weeks-from-your-investment, investment. It's a transparent, income producing asset, and happens to be the majority of all Bitcoin transactions on the planet Wink

a) Look up variable annuities. This looks very much like a variable annuity tied to the profit of a single company.

b) That's all well and good, but I don't have the inclination or technical skills to do that effectively myself. That is why companies hire accountants and auditors. This could be a business opportunity for someone with good knowledge of the inner-workings of Bitcoin and an accounting background. But for now it is, to me, essentially a black box. I would think that most other people are in the same situation.

c) When you compare this to something like Bitcoin Savings & Trust...yeah, it's less risky. However, when you compare it to all your investment options out there, it's incredibly risky. I'm not limiting myself to the Bitcoin investment market. You have to compare this to investing in all other options, not just Bitcoin-only options. I don't think the risk comes from the business being unsuccessful. I think your business model is essentially one of guaranteed profit. The risk, in my mind, comes from the organization of the business (basically a one-man operation) and agreement itself, which is probably unenforceable.

Factory

sr. member

Activity: 259

Merit: 250

Quote from: ribuck on August 20, 2012, 11:18:39 AM

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 10:58:21 AM

In major markets I think a low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 is what most would consider a 'bargain.'

A low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 would indeed be a bargain. But the catch here is that SatoshiDice is so easy to copy that it may not be a growth stock.

I completely agree. I believe you read my quote out of context; as I do not view BTC as a major market, I was simply replying to another post.

Factory

sr. member

Activity: 259

Merit: 250

Quote from: bitfoo on August 20, 2012, 11:15:14 AM

Quote from: MPOE-PR on August 20, 2012, 06:54:22 AM

Quote

Here's another way to look at this: 320,000 BTC is a little more than 1.5% of all bitcoins that will ever exist.

And for now, and possibly for a little while longer, SatoshiDice is a lot more than 1.5% of all that's worth owning in bitcoins. There are some good companies out there. Maybe ten, maybe twenty, certainly not one hundred. This is one of them.

Surely if one is bullish on BTC and believes that there will eventually be more good companies, 1.5% of all BTC seems unlikely in the long term, let alone growing beyond that. It might make sense if valued in USD though ($3.2 mil) - that number could have growth potential.

How the money is initially raised should make little difference regarding growrth potential since revenue is accrued in BTC and earnings are denominated in BTC.

ribuck

donator

Activity: 826

Merit: 1060

Quote from: Factory on August 20, 2012, 10:58:21 AM

In major markets I think a low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 is what most would consider a 'bargain.'

A low risk growth stock with a P/E of 10 would indeed be a bargain. But the catch here is that SatoshiDice is so easy to copy that it may not be a growth stock.

Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 104. (Read 316363 times)