Author

Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 105. (Read 316448 times)

legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
did i read the fine print right, 100,000,000 shares at .0032 or 3,200,00 btc or more than 30 million usd?

that is insane...

Math fail. It's 320,000 btc, or about 3.2m USD. This puts it at 10x p/e based on current earnings and assuming zero growth.  

I agree sorry for the quick mistake, but still. The numbers are way out of line to anything in the industry other than that odd exchange itself. No you guys are not apple.

Do not get my wrong, I hope you guys sell out, it would be nice to know people are willing to wait 15 years to break even. I just sadly do not think that is realistic right now. We will see.

Wait 15 years to break even... what are you talking about? 

If SatoshiDICE didn't grow at all (which it will) and you were never able to sell the share (which you can), then it would take about 10 years to break even.

Since the site will grow, and since you can sell your share whenever, the equation changes substantially. A conservative estimate with a doubling of site revenue within 2-3 years means you'd have made 100% within 1-2 years because the stock price would double to maintain the same 10x p/e valuation. The attractiveness of such an investment to professional investors should be apparent.

That is a very optimistic view. I hope you are correct but I highly doubt it.

Would you be willing to let me short your stock?  Thanks.

It is a very optimistic view that the site will double usage over 2-3 years? The site doubled usage just in the last month Smiley

Even if SatoshiDICE doesn't grow relative to the bitcoin economy (possible, since it's already so large), the bitcoin economy will FAR more than double over the next 2-3 years. I'm curious what your basis for analysis is?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
did i read the fine print right, 100,000,000 shares at .0032 or 3,200,00 btc or more than 30 million usd?

that is insane...

Math fail. It's 320,000 btc, or about 3.2m USD. This puts it at 10x p/e based on current earnings and assuming zero growth.  

I agree sorry for the quick mistake, but still. The numbers are way out of line to anything in the industry other than that odd exchange itself. No you guys are not apple.

Do not get my wrong, I hope you guys sell out, it would be nice to know people are willing to wait 15 years to break even. I just sadly do not think that is realistic right now. We will see.

Wait 15 years to break even... what are you talking about? 

If SatoshiDICE didn't grow at all (which it will) and you were never able to sell the share (which you can), then it would take about 10 years to break even.

Since the site will grow, and since you can sell your share whenever, the equation changes substantially. A conservative estimate with a doubling of site revenue within 2-3 years means you'd have made 100% within 1-2 years because the stock price would double to maintain the same 10x p/e valuation. The attractiveness of such an investment to professional investors should be apparent.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
These "shares" bear more similarities to a an annuity than they do to actual equity.  On top of this, I see nothing resembling an audited financial statement.  Proceed at your own, in my opinion extreme, risk.

a) They are not an annuity. Their value will fluctuate with market demand based on dividends paid out, which are 100% of SatoshiDICE net profits.

b) Actually, the financial statements are better than "audited."  All the information is mathematically verifiable using the blockchain, which is public. You don't have to trust any auditor, you can audit yourself any time of day to see exactly what SatoshiDICE is making (and some have done that in other threads on this forum).

c) Not sure if it's fair to call it "extreme risk" when comparing to other Bitcoin investments out there... you know what I'm talking about. It's verifiably profitable, and everyone knows where the profits come from. It's priced at 10x P/E and anyone who knows investing will understand this is a very reasonable valuation for a company with large growth potential and which already pays dividends.

SatoshiDICE is not a get-rich-in-three-weeks-from-your-investment, investment. It's a transparent, income producing asset, and happens to be the majority of all Bitcoin transactions on the planet Wink
donator
Activity: 826
Merit: 1060
20 BTC for opening a account? This is a robbery.
For what it's worth, you can reduce the account-opening fee to 15 BTC by mentioning the key ID of an existing member:
http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/faq.html#13
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
Investing in SatoshiDICE actually peaked my interest. These returns are ridiculous though...

0.0033278 BTC for 1/100M of 10%? Are you insane?

Man some people need to check numbers more carefully. It is .0033278 for 1 of the 100m shares (though only 10m shares are being offered). It is not 1/100m of 10% of the shares.  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
did i read the fine print right, 100,000,000 shares at .0032 or 3,200,00 btc or more than 30 million usd?

that is insane...

Math fail. It's 320,000 btc, or about 3.2m USD. This puts it at 10x p/e based on current earnings and assuming zero growth.  
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
Quote
Proceed at your own, in my opinion extreme, risk.

All bitcoin risk is extreme risk in this perspective. Not saying it is not a valid perspective, either.

The concern you raise about voting rights is valid, but there is a reason to do things this way. Specifically, bitcoin lacks as of yet an effectual way to enforce the will of the shareholders against a recalcitrant management. Because of this, it is better (or at least more honest) to give shares no voting rights than to feign giving them some rights that in reality aren't enforceable in any practical manner (and in fact experience has shown that time and time again, these forums are filled to the brim with imploded pretenses of the sort). Yes, you lose out on the possibility that shareholder votes would enshrine better management. It's not clear that this would actually conceivably occur (and it's not so clear it occurs all that often in the common everyday world, either). In exchange you gain something, too.

The shares are intended to work as shares. It seems the most that can be done at the moment. Maybe in time we find better solutions.


Quote
I can't find anything in the prospectus about a lock-up period for the other 90 million shares

The asset is listed as 10 million shares, does that mean the other 90 million will never be sold

Quote
(c)The representatives of SatoshiDice warrant that no further shares will be offered by them for a period of 30 days from the date these offered shares are sold. The representatives of SatoshiDice further warrant that they will never sell more than half the total shares.

So: 30 days lockdown, never sell out more than 50mn. That's the deal.


Thanks, you might want to include that in the prospectus as well, not just on the asset contract page
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Quote
Proceed at your own, in my opinion extreme, risk.

All bitcoin risk is extreme risk in this perspective. Not saying it is not a valid perspective, either.

The concern you raise about voting rights is valid, but there is a reason to do things this way. Specifically, bitcoin lacks as of yet an effectual way to enforce the will of the shareholders against a recalcitrant management. Because of this, it is better (or at least more honest) to give shares no voting rights than to feign giving them some rights that in reality aren't enforceable in any practical manner (and in fact experience has shown that time and time again, these forums are filled to the brim with imploded pretenses of the sort). Yes, you lose out on the possibility that shareholder votes would enshrine better management. It's not clear that this would actually conceivably occur (and it's not so clear it occurs all that often in the common everyday world, either). In exchange you gain something, too.

The shares are intended to work as shares. It seems the most that can be done at the moment. Maybe in time we find better solutions.


Quote
I can't find anything in the prospectus about a lock-up period for the other 90 million shares

The asset is listed as 10 million shares, does that mean the other 90 million will never be sold

Quote
(c)The representatives of SatoshiDice warrant that no further shares will be offered by them for a period of 30 days from the date these offered shares are sold. The representatives of SatoshiDice further warrant that they will never sell more than half the total shares.

So: 30 days lockdown, never sell out more than 50mn. That's the deal.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
I didn't see this asked or discussed, so here's my question: Why?
Why does SD need to go public, why does Erik want to dilute his own ownership and give up some control over his business, and what will he use the money raised for?

He sells 10% of SD for $350K (if all the shares sell)

I think that answers most of your questions Wink
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
I didn't see this asked or discussed, so here's my question: Why?
Why does SD need to go public, why does Erik want to dilute his own ownership and give up some control over his business, and what will he use the money raised for?
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
I can't find anything in the prospectus about a lock-up period for the other 90 million shares

The asset is listed as 10 million shares, does that mean the other 90 million will never be sold Huh

If they will be sold in the future, the asset should be listed as 100 million shares with a free-float of 10 million shares

sr. member
Activity: 240
Merit: 250
donator
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
I am planning on setting up a pass through for this asset to GLBSE, I am currently in contact with Meni and Erik to set this up Smiley
It should be all up in a day or two.
//DeaDTerra
hero member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 502
I'll need some sort of brokerage service...

If anyone is willing to do this service please PM me.


Thank you...

hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Surely. If you have an MPEx account it's as easy as putting in a BUY order for your desired volume. If you don't have an account you will have to talk to someone who offers brokering services. I think Brendio might be one, there might be more people offering it.
hero member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 502
Can I buy some of these? Smiley thanks
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Quote
And if you have to pay 20btc just to register on MPEX just to get a few shares you will NEVER make a profit buying S.DICE.

This is not playing around in some finance-themed MMORPG. This is investing. We're not playing here, you understand this? It's not the monthly subscription for Diablo IV we're discussing, too expensive at 20 btc, would be ok at 5.

If you need to talk to a lawyer you need to pay, depending on where you live, 500 or 5,000 dollars just for him to hear out your story. Nothing more. If you need to talk to a doctor you need to pay... eh, I don't even want to get into that.

IPOs are not for people wanting to buy 5 dollars worth of shares, nobody participated in the Facebook IPO based on the strength of his 19.95 balance sheet with freestocks.com.

20 bitcoins is nothing for an investor. He who stumbles and falls on a twenty bitcoin trap is not an investor. There's really no other way around it.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat


I don't think you read the offer very carefully. 0.0032 BTC (lowest tier) buys someone 1/100M of the revenue of SatoshiDICE! The dividend yield works out (if worked out by people who actually can do division and multiplication) at an estimated 0.00036 BTC a year per share, or a little over 10%.



And if you have to pay 20btc just to register on MPEX just to get a few shares you will NEVER make a profit buying S.DICE.

hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Here's another way to look at this: 320,000 BTC is a little more than 1.5% of all bitcoins that will ever exist.

And for now, and possibly for a little while longer, SatoshiDice is a lot more than 1.5% of all that's worth owning in bitcoins. There are some good companies out there. Maybe ten, maybe twenty, certainly not one hundred. This is one of them.

Quote
Subtracting expenses out before the reported revenue numbers skews the profitability.

Net profit is calculated as the difference between revenue and expense. Why would this be problematic? What would it skew?

Quote
I still have a hard time grasping how these voluntary associations are being referred to as companies and corporations.

Because that is exactly what a company or corporation is: a voluntary association. Furthermore, milk is the white liquid seeping out a cow's udders, not the item found in a government approved package announcing to the world that within lies milk. This is an important point and I think too easily forgotten.

Quote
When someone is talking about raising something like $7K for a project that you'd never get a loan for from a bank or never would see finding through an Angel, for instance, then I think these cyber equities are a fantastic innovation.   But raising over a quarter of a million dollars, with a valuation of several million dollars -- I wonder if this cyber-equities approach should be reconsidered.

This is a very limiting, unfortunate and in the end destined-to-fail way to regard bitcoins. They are not this exotic pet, to play around the "serious" fiats and fill the cracks they leave.

Bitcoin is the harbinger of doom for all fiat currencies. That is its role. That's what it is supposed to do. The notion that it should be relegated to denominating scams and ridiculous penny-ante endeavors of bizarre internet denizens with visible mental handicaps (yes, not being able to do basic math is a mental handicap for an adult human) is loathsome.

Bitcoin will support million dollar ventures, and it will support billion dollar ventures. And then it will support trillion dollar ventures, and quadrillion dollar ventures, and as the dollar slowly I mean quickly devalues into irrelevancy bitcoin will support everything. That's the paradigm.

And as shocking as this may sound, nobody needs nobody's permission for this.

Now, here's the question, and it lies in front of everybody: do you have some money for which you want to make some money, or do you have some time to kill for which you want to waste people's time?

That's the whole story.
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
From the prospectus (Full):

Quote
These amounts are subtracted from revenues before calculating net profits. SatoshiDICE does not
pay salaries or compensation to any person and thus salaries will not be taken out of net profits.

Legal expenses have thus far been paid out of pocket by the operator, Erik Voorhees. If legal
expenses exceed $1,000 per month, the amount will be deducted from SatoshiDICE’s net profits and
this will be described in the monthly Profit and Loss statements. There are currently no ongoing legal
expenses.

Web development expenses for the new website have been fully paid (there will not be upcoming
costs for this site). In the future, if other upgrade plans are implemented, these expenses will be
subtracted from net profits.

Subtracting expenses out before the reported revenue numbers skews the profitability.  I get that they are relatively a small amount, but I don't get why you would do that?  I would think P&L should list all revenues and expenses.    Even if there is no outlay for an expense, it still should be booked, I would think.  Without doing that paints a rosier picture (margins) than actually exists. (Again, probably inconsequential, but why not include them?)


From the Asset page on MPEx:

Quote
virtual trading of virtual shares of unregistered corporations

 - http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/mpex.php?mpsic=S.DICE

I still have a hard time grasping how these voluntary associations are being referred to as companies and corporations.

I can see how the operator might be protected from being sued personally by a customer, for instance, if I am understanding the concept of corporation by estoppel.  But I hate to see the word corporation used for these "assets".    These are voluntary associations of otherwise unrelated parties.  I've written on this elsewhere:

 - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.897131

When someone is talking about raising something like $7K for a project that you'ld never get a loan for from a bank or never would see finding through an Angel, for instance, then I think these cyber equities are a fantastic innovation.   But raisng over a quarter of a million dollars, with a valuation of several million dollars -- I wonder if this cyber-equities approach should be reconsidered.

What's the downside to finding a nice jurisdiction with great privacy laws an incorporating there?  There probably are several jurisdictions where you could incorporate yet still raise the funds through MPEx.
Jump to: