Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 101. (Read 316488 times)

As mentioned, cash reserve can fall to zero, but can't go negative. In the extremely unlikely even that the statistical variance resulted in this (it's something less than 0.01% chance), it would mean I'd simply put more cash into it and then get it moving again. It's too profitable to just let it sit there.

Not mentioned in the prospectus because it seems obvious to me, but I probably should have discussed this.

1) Running balance of the wallet is not public (though I could make it such). It's held in a handful of online (hot) wallets and offline cold storage. The balance is thus the sum of these accounts... as of this second, it stands at 7,302 BTC

2) SatoshiDICE cannot go bust. It's algorithms change the max bet sizes in real time so that in a world where the site lost every bet forever, the cash reserves just fall toward zero asymptotically.  It can lose all the money in cash reserves, but never go into debt.

3) Dividends paid out come from new profits, and don't reduce cash reserve below the level it was at in the prior month. Betting limits rise and fall constantly based on statistical variance. Betting limits are very high right now, and I do not intend to raise them further - though if I wished to, I can at any time put in more capital for this purpose.

4) Are there a lot of unanswered questions? I think I've been quite good about answering them all, no? And yes, due diligence is extremely important. I'm hoping people at least read the full prospectus before posting here, because lots of questions are likely answered in that document.

How is growth not factored in to it? You have been shouting about it's growth potential for the first half of the thread.

Where's the standard deviation and variance for daily / weekly revenues?

What's the confidence level for the projected profit?

Where are the Poisson regressions!!!!

10 or 15.....Both P/Es are unattractive for this.

Come on Erik: realistically speaking if BTC goes up 10 times, people are going to be willing to gamble less, let's be generous and say 25% as much in BTC space, or 2.5 times more in fiat space.   However I look at it I can only see downside to your BTC volume and profitability.

But good luck to you, it'll be interesting to see how much you can rope in and at what price.

Cedus, you're confusing yourself.

See figures here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE#gid=0

Avg. daily revenues: 4,798.63
House edge: 0.019
Avg. profit per day: 91.17 btc (this is profit, not revenue)

Projected profit per year: 33,278 (again, this is profit, not revenue, and assumes ZERO growth)

IPO will raise capital at roughly 10x P/E ratio based on that above figure.

All Casinos purchase specialty Casino Insurance, which is usually underwritten with cooperation from a bank using a letter of credit / credit line for the casino.

Who backstops SatoshiDICE's cash reserve? What happens if a series of lucky (or unlucky if you're a shareholder) rolls wipes out the cash reserve? With no backstop the betting limit would have to be lowered, and SatoshiDICE would enter a period of very slow growth. And it would be quite vulnerable to a well financed competitor with a larger cash reserve. Customers would leave SatoshiDICE if the limits stayed low for too long. Nowhere is this mentioned in the prospectus...

But where's the running balance? Nothing in the prospectus talks about the size of the cash reserve, or discusses the probability that SatoshiDICE will "go bust" (which is unlikely but still a nonzero chance).

If the dividends are paid out every month what happens to the cash reserves? How often are the betting limits reduced on account of liquidity? What's the long term plan for raising the betting limits?

A lot of unanswered questions here! I think people are getting caught up in the glamour and hype and are forgetting basic due dilligence!!!!

Maybe he talks about actual profits (65 BTC daily), not some mysterious "expected" profits/earnings (4,798.63 BTC x 0.019). You know, E in that P/E ratio is called Earnings, not rEvenue (for a reason). You're happily calling your revenue as your ("expected") profits/earnings. Profits/earnings is normally something you get after deducting expenses which, btw., include advertising costs which "will be increased to between $500-$1,000 per month" (from "$100-$300 range") therefore weakening your E and making P/E ratio even higher.

So people, please stop using P/E 10 when speaking about this IPO, since the correct P/E ratio is 15 (345,000 / 65 x 365).


No, it doesn't mean that. Again, you're speaking about revenues and totally forgetting (rising) expenses. Secondly, P/E ratio can and most likely will change over time, reflecting eg. changes in business environment and profitability of your venture or simply due to changes in stock/market price. P/E isn't some static figure you can shove down your "professional investors'" throats and make them follow it blindly, but a dynamic ratio which measures a variety of factors reflected either in stock/market price or earnings of your venture. Inability to both understand this business dynamic/logic behind P/E ratio and distinguish revenue from profits/earnings is alone sufficient reason for me not invest in this venture.

It may take 10 years for the investment to double your money from the dividend, but at any point you would be able to sell and recover your initial investment (assuming there is still a market and bitcoin still exists, etc). Since when does your money have to double to "pay off"?

This thread is a good place to start - people have been auditing SatoshiDICE since it started

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/satoshi-dice-statistical-analysis-80312

Again, please check your math. In 10 years, you would have doubled your money just from the dividends assuming zero growth. That's very different then "paying off" in 10 years.

I'm in Manhattan these days, though I was previously in New Hampshire, and before that was living in Dubai and may move there again in the future (since the US sucks).

For anyone in NYC by the way, we're having a big Meetup at our new office on Wednesday evening, lots of cool dudes will be here: http://www.meetup.com/Jekyll_Island_Bitcoin_Society/events/77229272/

Where can we audit the BTC cash reserves?

With no growth, the "investment" takes 10 years to pay off. I don't believe an unregulated gambling site that uses a digital currency which circumvents the entire establishment financial system will last 10 years without being fucked with.

True "due dilligence" would enumerate the risks. Why do I see no mention of risk in the prospectus? Domain seizure is very real and very likely (especially with .com).

Seizure of the owner of the operation is also equally likely.

We disagree.

SatoshiDICE pays for every transaction it makes. To date, it is the largest supporter of miners in the bitcoin economy. The majority of all mining fees ever have been paid by SatoshiDICE.

Gah.... again, the site valuation is based on NOT assuming growth, but on current revenues/profits. If "parabolic growth" occurs, then great, but it's certainly not an assumption. The offering makes financial sense for an investor even with near zero growth.

He works for BitInstant in NYC and is a member of the Free State Project (New Hampshire).