Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 57. (Read 316363 times)

Yes it's true that SD could theoretically have a month of loss, and in fact I don't even think the odds are that bad. I would expect a month of loss at some point.

It is also possible that the house could go broke, but we've done significant work to make this extremely unlikely.

Maybe mpex can ask bitcointalk forum how to run a forum with thousands of database queries and thousands of users and make it so it doesn't go down.

My suspicion is that MPEX is down so people don't pull money to cash out on the price hike.

http://finance.qandas.com/investing/what-is-an-unrealized-profit-and-loss.html

Is the best bid still that low?  Mpex is down...

The current bid on MPEx is 0.00350001. IPO was 0.0032 to 0.0037. I wasn't factoring in dividends, but many people brought it at 0.004s, 0.005s or even 0.008s.

Regardless, looking at USD terms it's not that bad of an investment.

How do you work that out! The Mpex dividend was 0.00013242 per share, passthroughs 95% of that.

Congratulations, 90% of people who invested in S.DICE barely broke even or made a loss.

Wouldn't the people who keep on playing be reflected in the volume and the 1.9% edge line?

He's right on that score. Some of a casino's best paid staff are the people who get big winners to keep playing / come back if they momentarily left / etc.

Well, everyone's a losing player if they play long enough.  In early February the big player who had been responsible for the majority of the site's profits in December and January started off winning, but kept playing until he had lost.  He (like any long-enough term player) is and was an overall losing player, but just happened to have a good run in the first couple of days of February.

That's all.

So you're claiming the house running above the expected ROI was due to WINNING players keeping playing?  Would have though it's more likely to be losing players who wouldn't give up until they bust.

Sure - winning players DO often give back a big chunk of a large win: but if they keep even one satishi of their winnings they've NOT contributed to the site's profit and have definitely NOT been responsible for the site running above expectation.  When there's a house edge only LOSING players give profit or can be responsible for the house running above expectation.

You're right, except that you're ignoring human nature.  A lot of people if they win big will keep playing, hoping to win even more.  But when they lose big maybe they have no more funds to keep playing with.  If you look at last month's graph for instance you'll see that the site was almost 4000 BTC below expected profit on Feb 3rd, presumably mostly due to the big player having some big wins.  The big player then continued to play and ended up losing those winnings and more, until he finally gave up on Feb 5th.

tl;dr it's hard to quit when you're ahead; it's easy to quit when you're busto

Am I wrong or is this not just Gaming Theory 101?

also questionable if S.DICE will grow as fast as Bitcoin 

Shares value might drop well under IPO value soon (but still outperform 99% of all fiat-denominated assets out there).

He has a point, the site could do under ER just as much as it could do over ER. It won't go bankrupt, that's one thing, but it certainly can have loser months.

Exactly.

I picked up another 1100 shares or so @ 0.0050999 this morning.   

That's wrong.

Take a look at the maximum that can be won on a single bet, then look at the expected profits in a month.  Then realise that loads of volume in small bets can have their profit wiped out by a few winning large bets - and realise that you're just totally wrong.

In fact it's already HAD a losing month.

Risk of Ruin can be reduced to zero by controlling max bet sizes based on backing capital - but you can't remove the risk of losing months without capping max bets at a level which would lose the best customers.  And of course the possibility of losing months also means the possibility of months where you win well above expectation.

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

All of you talking about junk like odds of X losing days in a row are totally ignoring the very high odds on some wagers and the massive range of bet sizes available.  There'll be more losing months.  There'll also be more months of winning well above expectation.  And investors need to take both in their stride.

It's possible and likely that there will be days where the house loses, but over a month it's practically impossible given their volume.