Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 57. (Read 316442 times)

I picked up another 1100 shares or so @ 0.0050999 this morning.   

That's wrong.

Take a look at the maximum that can be won on a single bet, then look at the expected profits in a month.  Then realise that loads of volume in small bets can have their profit wiped out by a few winning large bets - and realise that you're just totally wrong.

In fact it's already HAD a losing month.

Risk of Ruin can be reduced to zero by controlling max bet sizes based on backing capital - but you can't remove the risk of losing months without capping max bets at a level which would lose the best customers.  And of course the possibility of losing months also means the possibility of months where you win well above expectation.

If you STILL aren't convinced then look at the results for the month that just ended.  Now look at how far ABOVE expectation S.DICE did.  Now try to think of a good reason why it can finish that much above expectation but not that much below expectation given a small house margin and fair games (hint: there's no such reason).

All of you talking about junk like odds of X losing days in a row are totally ignoring the very high odds on some wagers and the massive range of bet sizes available.  There'll be more losing months.  There'll also be more months of winning well above expectation.  And investors need to take both in their stride.

It's possible and likely that there will be days where the house loses, but over a month it's practically impossible given their volume.

So far in March, SD is around 2000 BTC in loss There's always possibility that someone will find some exploit and make SD go bust, especially some competitor. It's a risky business - gambling.

The bank can always be broken given enough of a statistical anomaly but as the volume becomes so great the probability of a consecutive number of days ending up losing goes down dramatically (i.e. 30 days). So SD's deep pockets in relation to the maximum bet help keep the casino afloat, but the betting volume is what assures consistent profitability. It seems to me as though SD has both the pockets and the volume to never have a losing month from now on (in relation to their maximum bet), so I am making that prediction now.

So the bank of Satoshi Dice cannot be broken like the one in Monte Carlo? 
I'd though of starting a casino site but was terrified of the possibility of going bust.
I guess if you have deep enough pockets you can weather the unlucky streaks and always
come out ahead at the end of the month. True?

Someone still selling shares at low 0.005s when people put up asks?

Only Namjies has paid out so far.

you need to give the passthrough operators some time.

has the div paid out ? I don't see it on bitfunder and btct

Wow, dude. This is a successful business and you deserve every bitcent you earn!

All consultation fees are worth the price period. The volume of SD assures that it is basically impossible for a month to be losing. That's how statistics works. I appreciate that statistic being kept as I predict no months from now on will ever be losing. Bam! Thanks Mr. Voorhees.

A good month for the house for once . Maybe that double-spend consulting is paying off.

Erik, thanks for another great month for S.DICE. Do you have any news or info on upcoming plans that you could share with us?

Yes sorry I should explain this. I'm now paying for professional help in a couple areas for SD. The 100 btc is likely to be monthly. I also paid this past month for some extra security consulting, mainly around the double-spend issue.

Systems operator?

February Statement

The dividend for S.DICE has now been paid for February.

Summary:
Earnings:   13462.81849617
Hosting/Tech Expenses:   40
Security Consulting:   80
Systems operator:   100
Loss Carryover from Jan: 0
  
Net Profit   13242.81849617
13% MPEX Dividend   1721.5664045021

Volume over past month:  344,973.88
Actual Profit over past month:  13,242.82
Expected Profit over past month:   6,554.50

Updated P&L: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=0



The gambling industry will not be ignoring Bitcoin much longer, I assure you

Heh.


Is this actually the case?


Name's Luke-jr.


Word.


Ownership at the moment of payout counts. There's no ex date.



It beat.

Yes Maximian is correct

There are 50,000,000 S.DICE shares on MPEx, and 37,000,000 of those are controlled by evoorhees.

When the dividend is paid, it will be in the sum of 6619 BTC, which will be divided into all 50 million shares (0.00013238 BTC per share).

I'm assuming that Erik stated 1721 BTC because he's only considering the 13,000,000 shares not held by him, however MPEx will still require him to actually pay 6619BTC to issue the dividend.