[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 59.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: zkay on March 03, 2013, 12:17:29 AM

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 11:49:39 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 11:34:20 PM

If the market can be moved that heavily with seemingly not a whole lot of effort, what's to stop a person or group of people with a big enough bankroll from putting up bogus bids/asks and slowly stepping the market price up to a certain point, then cashing out? Is this what is referred to as a "pump and dump"?

Thank you all for humoring me.

The cashing out would be the hard part - you can make the market price move up just by spending cash. But you can't make people put up bids - and there's usually very few bids up. And as you're seeing right now, as soon as someone starts selling, the buyers all stop putting up bids.

And yes - that would be a pump and dump attempt.

Why is the market so illiquid? in other words, why do buyers not appear even when shares are being offered at discounted prices? Isn't that bearish for S.DICE overall, if no one will allow the price to rise by buying into rallies?

If the seller put his shares up in an Ask wall at .005 then I expect they wouldn't last too long (though this time of night they may as probably not too many around). But consider it from the perspective of a buyer who wouldn't mind buying at .005 but hasn't any great need too. If they put up a bid at .005 then there's a few bad (by which I mean sub-optimal) things that happen:

1) They get outbid - and the price rises meaning they miss the chance to buy at .005 at all.
2) Seller slams his shares up in a sell wall BELOW .005 and they buy at .005 when everyone gets theirs cheaper.

The seller's shown he isn't willing to wait to sell at a higher price so there's no reason for buyers to be impatient. Let him put his shares up, underbid with small asks to see if he can be persuaded to go lower and only buy if/when it looks like his wall is going to get cleaned out. The goal isn't to buy shares, it's to buy them as cheaply as possible. If he'll fill a bid at .005 then why not wait and see if he'll go even lower? If he won't fill a bid at .005 then you gain nothing by putting up a bid - as it won't get filled anyway.

Not all securities work like this - S.DICE is especially good for panicky sellers and lower liquidity.

zkay

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 11:49:39 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 11:34:20 PM

If the market can be moved that heavily with seemingly not a whole lot of effort, what's to stop a person or group of people with a big enough bankroll from putting up bogus bids/asks and slowly stepping the market price up to a certain point, then cashing out? Is this what is referred to as a "pump and dump"?

Thank you all for humoring me.

The cashing out would be the hard part - you can make the market price move up just by spending cash. But you can't make people put up bids - and there's usually very few bids up. And as you're seeing right now, as soon as someone starts selling, the buyers all stop putting up bids.

And yes - that would be a pump and dump attempt.

Why is the market so illiquid? in other words, why do buyers not appear even when shares are being offered at discounted prices? Isn't that bearish for S.DICE overall, if no one will allow the price to rise by buying into rallies?

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 11:34:20 PM

If the market can be moved that heavily with seemingly not a whole lot of effort, what's to stop a person or group of people with a big enough bankroll from putting up bogus bids/asks and slowly stepping the market price up to a certain point, then cashing out? Is this what is referred to as a "pump and dump"?

Thank you all for humoring me.

The cashing out would be the hard part - you can make the market price move up just by spending cash. But you can't make people put up bids - and there's usually very few bids up. And as you're seeing right now, as soon as someone starts selling, the buyers all stop putting up bids.

And yes - that would be a pump and dump attempt.

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 11:34:20 PM

If the market can be moved that heavily with seemingly not a whole lot of effort, what's to stop a person or group of people with a big enough bankroll from putting up bogus bids/asks and slowly stepping the market price up to a certain point, then cashing out? Is this what is referred to as a "pump and dump"?

Thank you all for humoring me.

Dividends keep it grounded.

zkay

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

If the market can be moved that heavily with seemingly not a whole lot of effort, what's to stop a person or group of people with a big enough bankroll from putting up bogus bids/asks and slowly stepping the market price up to a certain point, then cashing out? Is this what is referred to as a "pump and dump"?

Thank you all for humoring me.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: Bugpowder on March 02, 2013, 10:57:59 PM

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:52:30 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:40:43 PM

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:31:09 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

It's absolutely tiny volume. One person selling 0.01% of the outstanding shares needs no reason other than that one person needed or wanted to sell their shares. There's usually very few buy orders up (other than at low prices to catch anyone who mistypes the number of zeros) so it only take someone selling a few 10ks of shares to make it look like the price is crashing.

If there was some significant reason then you'd be seeing Ask walls up with hundreds of thousands of shares in them.

There's one person trying to sell 30k shares - looks like he just automatically undercut a 1k order at .006. The other small sell orders will be people who just got sold into and are looking to flip the shares quickly to pick some more up from anyone who is panicking.

When there's only one sell order of any size at a low price there's two possibilities:

1. One person somehow knows something major about S.DICE that noone else knows.
2. One person needs some cash quickly.

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

Awesome! Thank you for this. As a person new to btc and investing I greatly appreciate clear explanations.

What happened next is also standard.

He puts up his sell order. Other people (I'm one of them) realise he's in a rush to sell - so lower their own bids and also put up small asks just below his. Although those orders are small they force him to either undercut or to sell into the bids. But he's in a rush to sell and will have noticed bids being taken down/lowered.

Which is why the 30k Ask vanished and bids got filled down to .005.

But he left up a single 100 bid at .005. What does that mean? That means he still has shares left and left it up as he wants people to overbid it. So of course anyone with awareness of what's happening will put up more bids BELOW that to try get shares as cheap as they can (though inevitably someone who doesn't know what's going on will overbid it and everyone else then has to raise their bids).

That's one of the ways to make profit in an illiquid market - when you see someone is desperate to sell OR buy, try to make them do it from YOU at the most advantageous price you can.

Well the 637k ask wall came down. About 100k has been bought around .005-.0055 in the last 10 minutes. So I would say there is about 537k of 'shadow' inventory for sale at .0050001. If you want to put a bid up at or above there, I'm sure it will get sold into.

Didn't have much cash there to spend - but bought what I could in the .005-.0055 area. Was deliberately low on cash as expecting the S.DICE dividend which I have to convert to LTC for my pass-though - so had run cash down so as not to need to move or exchange funds.

EDIT: And yeah, looks like its a more significant quantity that has been in decreasing Ask walls for a while. Someone who bought out one of the vorhees batches and didn't manage to flip for the profit they expected and now wants cash in a rush would be the obvious guess. If he got them in the first batch then he's still doing OK if he sells at .005.

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:52:30 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:40:43 PM

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:31:09 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

It's absolutely tiny volume. One person selling 0.01% of the outstanding shares needs no reason other than that one person needed or wanted to sell their shares. There's usually very few buy orders up (other than at low prices to catch anyone who mistypes the number of zeros) so it only take someone selling a few 10ks of shares to make it look like the price is crashing.

If there was some significant reason then you'd be seeing Ask walls up with hundreds of thousands of shares in them.

There's one person trying to sell 30k shares - looks like he just automatically undercut a 1k order at .006. The other small sell orders will be people who just got sold into and are looking to flip the shares quickly to pick some more up from anyone who is panicking.

When there's only one sell order of any size at a low price there's two possibilities:

1. One person somehow knows something major about S.DICE that noone else knows.
2. One person needs some cash quickly.

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

Awesome! Thank you for this. As a person new to btc and investing I greatly appreciate clear explanations.

What happened next is also standard.

He puts up his sell order. Other people (I'm one of them) realise he's in a rush to sell - so lower their own bids and also put up small asks just below his. Although those orders are small they force him to either undercut or to sell into the bids. But he's in a rush to sell and will have noticed bids being taken down/lowered.

Which is why the 30k Ask vanished and bids got filled down to .005.

But he left up a single 100 bid at .005. What does that mean? That means he still has shares left and left it up as he wants people to overbid it. So of course anyone with awareness of what's happening will put up more bids BELOW that to try get shares as cheap as they can (though inevitably someone who doesn't know what's going on will overbid it and everyone else then has to raise their bids).

That's one of the ways to make profit in an illiquid market - when you see someone is desperate to sell OR buy, try to make them do it from YOU at the most advantageous price you can.

Well the 637k ask wall came down. About 100k has been bought around .005-.0055 in the last 10 minutes. So I would say there is about 537k of 'shadow' inventory for sale at .0050001. If you want to put a bid up at or above there, I'm sure it will get sold into.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:40:43 PM

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:31:09 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

It's absolutely tiny volume. One person selling 0.01% of the outstanding shares needs no reason other than that one person needed or wanted to sell their shares. There's usually very few buy orders up (other than at low prices to catch anyone who mistypes the number of zeros) so it only take someone selling a few 10ks of shares to make it look like the price is crashing.

If there was some significant reason then you'd be seeing Ask walls up with hundreds of thousands of shares in them.

There's one person trying to sell 30k shares - looks like he just automatically undercut a 1k order at .006. The other small sell orders will be people who just got sold into and are looking to flip the shares quickly to pick some more up from anyone who is panicking.

When there's only one sell order of any size at a low price there's two possibilities:

1. One person somehow knows something major about S.DICE that noone else knows.
2. One person needs some cash quickly.

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

Awesome! Thank you for this. As a person new to btc and investing I greatly appreciate clear explanations.

What happened next is also standard.

He puts up his sell order. Other people (I'm one of them) realise he's in a rush to sell - so lower their own bids and also put up small asks just below his. Although those orders are small they force him to either undercut or to sell into the bids. But he's in a rush to sell and will have noticed bids being taken down/lowered.

Which is why the 30k Ask vanished and bids got filled down to .005.

But he left up a single 100 bid at .005. What does that mean? That means he still has shares left and left it up as he wants people to overbid it. So of course anyone with awareness of what's happening will put up more bids BELOW that to try get shares as cheap as they can (though inevitably someone who doesn't know what's going on will overbid it and everyone else then has to raise their bids).

That's one of the ways to make profit in an illiquid market - when you see someone is desperate to sell OR buy, try to make them do it from YOU at the most advantageous price you can.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on March 02, 2013, 10:37:38 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on March 02, 2013, 10:33:52 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

I had been wondering when the ownership of the shares is taken for the calculations. If for instance it is midnight UCT then regardless of when the actual payment is shares could change hands without affecting the payout. On the other hand if the calcs are done on the basis of share ownership at the time of payout then selling up prior is not the best idea. Maybe MPOE-PR can clarify?

I'm pretty sure it's at time of share payout.

It's time of payout.

zkay

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:31:09 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

It's absolutely tiny volume. One person selling 0.01% of the outstanding shares needs no reason other than that one person needed or wanted to sell their shares. There's usually very few buy orders up (other than at low prices to catch anyone who mistypes the number of zeros) so it only take someone selling a few 10ks of shares to make it look like the price is crashing.

If there was some significant reason then you'd be seeing Ask walls up with hundreds of thousands of shares in them.

There's one person trying to sell 30k shares - looks like he just automatically undercut a 1k order at .006. The other small sell orders will be people who just got sold into and are looking to flip the shares quickly to pick some more up from anyone who is panicking.

When there's only one sell order of any size at a low price there's two possibilities:

1. One person somehow knows something major about S.DICE that noone else knows.
2. One person needs some cash quickly.

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

Awesome! Thank you for this. As a person new to btc and investing I greatly appreciate clear explanations.

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

vip

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1043

👻

Quote from: thoughtfan on March 02, 2013, 10:33:52 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

I had been wondering when the ownership of the shares is taken for the calculations. If for instance it is midnight UCT then regardless of when the actual payment is shares could change hands without affecting the payout. On the other hand if the calcs are done on the basis of share ownership at the time of payout then selling up prior is not the best idea. Maybe MPOE-PR can clarify?

I'm pretty sure it's at time of share payout.

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Quote from: thoughtfan on March 02, 2013, 10:33:52 PM

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

I had been wondering when the ownership of the shares is taken for the calculations. If for instance it is midnight UCT then regardless of when the actual payment is shares could change hands without affecting the payout. On the other hand if the calcs are done on the basis of share ownership at the time of payout then selling up prior is not the best idea. Maybe MPOE-PR can clarify?

Div goes to owners at time of payout. Sell now, get no div.

Bugpowder

sr. member

Activity: 394

Merit: 250

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 10:31:09 PM

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

The bot broke again!

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

I had been wondering when the ownership of the shares is taken for the calculations. If for instance it is midnight UCT then regardless of when the actual payment is shares could change hands without affecting the payout. On the other hand if the calcs are done on the basis of share ownership at the time of payout then selling up prior is not the best idea. Maybe MPOE-PR can clarify?

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: zkay on March 02, 2013, 10:17:24 PM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

It's absolutely tiny volume. One person selling 0.01% of the outstanding shares needs no reason other than that one person needed or wanted to sell their shares. There's usually very few buy orders up (other than at low prices to catch anyone who mistypes the number of zeros) so it only take someone selling a few 10ks of shares to make it look like the price is crashing.

If there was some significant reason then you'd be seeing Ask walls up with hundreds of thousands of shares in them.

There's one person trying to sell 30k shares - looks like he just automatically undercut a 1k order at .006. The other small sell orders will be people who just got sold into and are looking to flip the shares quickly to pick some more up from anyone who is panicking.

When there's only one sell order of any size at a low price there's two possibilities:

1. One person somehow knows something major about S.DICE that noone else knows.
2. One person needs some cash quickly.

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

zkay

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

I don't like people being secretive about something like this. They're talking about Luke-jr. Look him up and make up your own mind.

wtfvanity

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

WTF???

Quote from: Deprived on March 02, 2013, 03:43:15 PM

Quote from: dooglus on March 02, 2013, 03:19:21 PM

Quote from: Deprived on March 01, 2013, 11:21:33 PM

If a pool discards S.DICE transactions but intentionally allows competing transactions from same source to process then the pool only needs a few % of network power for anyone to profitably attack S.DICE by trying to double-spend any losing bets - the few % of times the pool includes the double-spend (and cancels the losing bet) then outweigh the house edge on the rest of bets. You underestimate the extent to which some are opposed to S.DICE (not me - obviously).

I don't know if you're aware, but there's already a bot that routinely double-spends lots of losing SatoshiDice bets. Its transactions almost never get picked up by the miners though. All it would need would be for an anti-SD pool to start deliberately mining the double-spent transactions to make SD unprofitable. Can you think of anyone with a mining pool who's vocally against SD and has used the pool for morally questionable things in the past? Wink

I'm sure the person you're thinking of is the one I had in mind when making my comments.

No way. We have someone like that who runs a mining pool? I pray it isn't so.

Deprived

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: dooglus on March 02, 2013, 03:19:21 PM

Quote from: Deprived on March 01, 2013, 11:21:33 PM

If a pool discards S.DICE transactions but intentionally allows competing transactions from same source to process then the pool only needs a few % of network power for anyone to profitably attack S.DICE by trying to double-spend any losing bets - the few % of times the pool includes the double-spend (and cancels the losing bet) then outweigh the house edge on the rest of bets. You underestimate the extent to which some are opposed to S.DICE (not me - obviously).

I don't know if you're aware, but there's already a bot that routinely double-spends lots of losing SatoshiDice bets. Its transactions almost never get picked up by the miners though. All it would need would be for an anti-SD pool to start deliberately mining the double-spent transactions to make SD unprofitable. Can you think of anyone with a mining pool who's vocally against SD and has used the pool for morally questionable things in the past? Wink

I'm sure the person you're thinking of is the one I had in mind when making my comments.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Deprived on March 01, 2013, 11:21:33 PM

If a pool discards S.DICE transactions but intentionally allows competing transactions from same source to process then the pool only needs a few % of network power for anyone to profitably attack S.DICE by trying to double-spend any losing bets - the few % of times the pool includes the double-spend (and cancels the losing bet) then outweigh the house edge on the rest of bets. You underestimate the extent to which some are opposed to S.DICE (not me - obviously).

I don't know if you're aware, but there's already a bot that routinely double-spends lots of losing SatoshiDice bets. Its transactions almost never get picked up by the miners though. All it would need would be for an anti-SD pool to start deliberately mining the double-spent transactions to make SD unprofitable. Can you think of anyone with a mining pool who's vocally against SD and has used the pool for morally questionable things in the past? Wink

Quote from: MPOE-PR on March 02, 2013, 03:36:24 AM

Roughly 3/4. Perhaps the whales weren't quite such a big part of S.DICE profitability as everyone thought?

Or the whale lost so big in the first 5 days of February that he decided to stop playing, but gave the site enough profits from his run of bad luck to almost make up for his absence the rest of the month.

Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx - page 59. (Read 316442 times)