If the house edge is 0.5%, that means, in the long run you're expected to lose 0.5% of the amount you wagered.
Do you disagree?
Yes.
My rewards were around 0,5%, so I was expected to lose nothing (0,5% house edge - 0,5% rewards = 0).
I've already explained what's wrong specifically with your calculation (you ignore the fact that black jack pays 3:2, and calculate it as if every win pays even money).
If Stake "Statistics" calculates a Black Jack win as 1 bet won while I won 1,5 bets, then you just confirmed that their in-house Black Jack system is rigged!
But your "calculation" clearly results in the player having a significant edge.
No, my calculation clearly results in the player having no edge:
My rewards were around 0,5%, so I was expected to lose nothing (0,5% house edge - 0,5% rewards = 0).
0 = no edge for the player.
Rewards are separate and dependent on which games you play and how much you've won or lost at each point.
0,5% house edge minus 0,5% rewards = nothing to lose instead of 30,000 USD lost!
I'm just talking about your "math".
It is not "my" math, it is public math.
Stake is a public company which has to follow public math and the public math says:
Info 1)If you take a look at my statistics here
https://ibb.co/Hxf8NpR you can see the following total numbers:
Bets: 180,904
Wins: 78,285
Losses: 86,612
If we reduce the number of wins from the number of losses, we can see that I lost 8,327 bets (86,612 minus 78,285 = 8,327)
Losing 8,327 bets out of 180,904 bets placed = 4,6% of the bets lost.
Info 2)The advertised house edge for the Stake in-house Black Jack is 0,5%, which means longterm I will lose 0,5% of all bets placed.
Losing 0,5% out of 180,904 bets placed = 900 bets lose.
If you compare Info 1) with Info 2), you can see that I lost 8,327 bets instead of the 900 bets I should lose = 9 times more!
While there is a deviation from the expected outcome, it can not be 9 times more after 180,904 bets!
Info 3)When the house edge is 0,5% and you placed 180,900 bets, you will lose 900 bets and the remaining 180,000 bets are coin flips.
The remaining 180,000 bets are coin flips, because they are neutral and you will win 50% = 90,000 bets and lose 50% = 90,000 bets.
4,6% of the bets lost while I should lose only 0,5% means my experienced deviation of the 180,000 coin flips is 4,1%!
Now let's take a look at the standard deviation for 180,000 coin flips:
A) Standard deviation for 180,000 coin flips = 212 coin flips = 0,12% (In 68% of all attempts, the deviation is up to 0,12%)
My experienced deviation of 4,1% is 34 times higher than the standard deviation (4,1% : 0,12% = 34)
B) 3 times standard deviation for 180,000 coin flips = 0,36% (In 99,7% of all attempts, the deviation is up to 0.36%)
My experienced deviation of 4,1% is 11 times higher than the 3 times standard deviation (4,1% : 0,36% = 11)
Info 4)The Stake bet transaction history only states 180,000 single bet events and no overview of my experienced house edge.
To get my experienced house edge from the bet transaction history, I would need to take a look at all 180,000 bets and calculate it manually!
If the cards were dealt fair and I lost only 0,5% of all bets placed while the statistics states that I lost 4,6%, then the Stake statistics is rigged!
In either case, the Stake in-house Black Jack system is provably rigged and Stake has to compensate at least the 30,000 USD I lost from my pocket.
Their strategy to ignore me, while they are clearly at fault, will fail!
