Stake in-house Black Jack is rigged,
[email protected] ignores!
0,5% house edge means that I win 49.75% of all bets placed and lose 50.25% of all bets placed.
181,000 x 49.75% = 90,048 wins
181,000 x 50.25% = 90,953 losses
The difference between wins and losses is 905 bets, means after 181,000 bets I will statistically lose 905 bets.
But my Stake statistics states that I lost 8,327 bets!!!
Bets: 180,904 | Wins: 78,285 | Losses: 86,612 = 8,327 more losses
Proof:
https://ibb.co/Hxf8NpR BlackyJacky thinks he plays optimal black jack and should be winning 49.75% of the hands he plays.
Let's see what that would look like.
In black jack, you are paid even money (1 -1) for winning a hand, except when you're first two cards equal 21, then you're paid 1.5-1, (also known as 3-2). So we need to figure out how often each of the two possible payouts happens in order to determine the rtp.
21 is either an Ace and a Ten card, or a Ten card and an Ace.
With an infinite deck, odds of an Ace are 4/52, any Ten card is 16/52
Chances of Ten card first, then an Ace: 16/52 * 4/52 = 0.0236
And then the other way around, Ace first: 4/52 * 16/52 = 0.0236
Combined that gives us a 4.7% chance of being dealt a black jack and profiting 1.5x our bet.
So, of the 49.75% of hands blackyjacky thinks he should be winning, he should expect to be paid even money on 45.02% of them, and 1.5x on 4.73% of them.
Lets say 100,000:
That would be 4,730 black jacks, 45,020 even money wins, and 50,250 losses.
He will be paid $2.50 on each black jack and $2 on the other wins.
4,730 * $2.50 = $11,825
45,020 * $2 = $90,040
Total = $101,865
Result = +$1,865 (1.8% ROI)
(note: I'm not calculating for when the dealer is also dealt black jack and the bet is pushed, which happens 0.22% of the time. so the profit is a couple hundred bucks too high in my calculation)
Conclusion: Blackyjacky is pulling numbers out of his ass.