fr33d0miz3r, I might have agreed, but do you know the rule about IV(iv/iii) A fourth wave following a third wave will tend to turn around within the proximity of the fourth wave of one lower fractal.
Look at my chart above. it's almost exact.
I wish I could help you about your other question, but I dont know all the details.
Topic: CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog - page 14. (Read 29192 times)
StochRSI on hourly chart is already overbought, so I think we can't go up right now. Maybe we'll have another leg down, something like this:
RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.
I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?
What do you guys think about this?
I'm not an expert, but even to me the decline since the last ATH is looking like a declining wedge. I noticed it quite some time ago. There seems to be some good prospects no matter what kind af analysis technique you are trying to apply, so let's hope EW and TA aggregate and lead us to the next bubble.
I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?
What do you guys think about this?
Nice work. I just got back in at 488, but I'd feel lucky if I have in fact just nailed the bottom. wht concerns me is that the next obstacle after 480 is quite low down, but then again, 480 is pretty tough support. This is a very good risk/rewad set up.
All right, drop came a little late of what I predicted and not so deep.
Still, we can drop further if price breaks 460 down. But a scenario where we are at the end of bigger wave 2 plays great. It would become even more likely if we go above 500. I guess we'll have some obstacles around 520-550 and if we exit that area the following rise must be strong.
Still, we can drop further if price breaks 460 down. But a scenario where we are at the end of bigger wave 2 plays great. It would become even more likely if we go above 500. I guess we'll have some obstacles around 520-550 and if we exit that area the following rise must be strong.
right! here is a shot.
here is a better chart.
I believe we have just seen the 480 extreme tested and support is strong. I bought at 488.
possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.
I'm buying only after breaking the 200 days EMA (540 now).
possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.
Correction, My primary count is more like the one posted below;
For long term I have a less optimistic view.
Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.
Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.
Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.
Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.
I don't see how this is less optimistic. It shows that there is yet another 3 then the 5 to play out yet.
And my counts regarding the finished correction.
I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.
I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.
Bitcoin tends to count like commodities. Whereas 5ths are VERY extended. Sometimes as much as 2.61x wave 1+3. Very rarely (and usually only on intraday impulses) does the 5==1 in length. I just disregard that guide line for Bitcoin.
The 5 of C can also be counted this way:
This is just to show that nothing is for certain until invalidation occurs.
Sorry for the long post, I just got home from work, so I was unable to do a lot from my phone.
And my counts regarding the finished correction.
I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.
I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.
There is another variant, more bearish:
In this case it would mean that we have finished the whole cycle and entered long term correction to 70-135.
But we still haven't broken the long term trend channel, so I will consider this variant only if/when we break the trend.
Right now we touched the trendline at 339 and bounced from it.
In this case it would mean that we have finished the whole cycle and entered long term correction to 70-135.
But we still haven't broken the long term trend channel, so I will consider this variant only if/when we break the trend.
Right now we touched the trendline at 339 and bounced from it.
Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?
This?
Or this?
I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target $600,000.
If that, its route would look like this:
This?
Or this?
I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target $600,000.
If that, its route would look like this:
The first one is my primary long-term count
For long term I have a less optimistic view.
Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.
Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.
Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.
Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.
Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?
Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area. The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.
Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area. The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.
I use Sierrachart level 3 data, but there is a $10/month bitcoin only data service
Only one thing i need to know is where we are going next 615 or 470.)
Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?
This?
Or this?
I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target $600,000.
If that, its route would look like this:
This?
Or this?
I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target $600,000.
If that, its route would look like this:
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