Topic: CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog - page 18. (Read 29192 times)
CW, on your hourly count the (5) target is shown as 382.86. But we just hit 382.70 on stamp! You're going to have to do better 
Analysis holding up nicely. Let's see how low we go.
How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?
Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III
Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III
It was my initial read on the chart. The large drop after the $260 top looks like a Wave 2 due to the deep retracement, though it does seem short in time to be a P2 wave. We both agree that the $1163 top is a large degree wave 3 top. I may make adjustments based on the Gox data from 2010, though I don't feel that it changes the current count on the double zig zag W-X-Y retracement.
The main reason I was pointing that out was because a retrace below $260 doesn't really invalidate the larger count (although, it will be perceived as very bearish by many, since the previous ATH...blablabla) And as long as this is not the super cycle [II], your shorter term count is as plausible as one of mine where it's an ABC and we are in iv of 5 of C right now.
How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?
Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III
Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III
It was my initial read on the chart. The large drop after the $260 top looks like a Wave 2 due to the deep retracement, though it does seem short in time to be a P2 wave. We both agree that the $1163 top is a large degree wave 3 top. I may make adjustments based on the Gox data from 2010, though I don't feel that it changes the current count on the double zig zag W-X-Y retracement.
You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better.
Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?
Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?
The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account (measured the waves and fib ratios all the way back there as well). Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.
At Bitcoin's current price level, the hourly chart is the most important. I have that mapped pretty well. Providing a log scale chart would be useful at some point. I'll work on that after studying the log chart section in my EWave book.
How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?
Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III
The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account. Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.
Yes bitstamp data goes back to near that time. Mt gox data goes back further, showing a couple of earlier bubbles and the 2011 crash. Im not sure how you could combine the data but this chart may help for reference:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2920ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better.
Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?
Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?
The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account (measured the waves and fib ratios all the way back there as well). Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.
At Bitcoin's current price level, the hourly chart is the most important. I have that mapped pretty well. Providing a log scale chart would be useful at some point. I'll work on that after studying the log chart section in my EWave book.
You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better.
Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?
Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?
New post made providing details on the Bitcoin Hourly chart. Happy trading, everyone! 
http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-april-2014/
http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-april-2014/
But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!
Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...
Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...
Wave 4 cannot overlap with Wave 1 unless there is a leading diagonal or ending diagonal pattern, which are rare occurrences. This rule cannot be broken. If there is a Wave 4 into Wave 1 violation with a drop below $260 then my count needs to be adjusted.
Wave C being equal to wave A is a guideline, rather than a strict rule.
Ok makes sense. In that case we should probably be looking at the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 first which coincides with the $300 mark on Bitstamp.
But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!
Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...
Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...
Wave 4 cannot overlap with Wave 1 unless there is a leading diagonal or ending diagonal pattern, which are rare occurrences. This rule cannot be broken. If there is a Wave 4 into Wave 1 violation with a drop below $260 then my count needs to be adjusted.
Wave C being equal to wave A is a guideline, rather than a strict rule.
But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!
Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...
Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...
I finished the first post at my new Elliott Wave analysis blog for cryptocurrencies. The first post covers the daily chart for Bitcoin.
If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.
http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/
Follow @CryptoWaves on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.
If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.
http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/
Follow @CryptoWaves on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.
Kind of neat was reading it not from an Elliott Wave View but I can see the argument
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/
I finished the first post at my new Elliott Wave analysis blog for cryptocurrencies. The first post covers the daily chart for Bitcoin.
If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.
http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/
Follow @CryptoWaves on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.
Visit CryptoWaves for new posts!
If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.
http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/
Follow @CryptoWaves on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.
Visit CryptoWaves for new posts!
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