Topic: Diff thread june 7 to june 20 -picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.20 btc - page 8. (Read 7598 times)

you did not miss a guess.  Guesses start later today.

Well I missed the guessing for this round, but that's find because I think these next couple adjustments are going to be anyone's guess.  I mean sure they all have been, but at least if felt like you could logic some stuff out about what is happening.  But now with the price exploding and new hardware and all it seems to me almost anything can happen.

My goal when I got into mining a little over a year ago was to have 1BTC to hold onto through the halving and see what happens.  I am happy to report that I have a little more than that stashed away, so here's to the continued success of bitcoin and an unknown future!

yeah it is nice to max your sale the highest day of the bull run.  but really hard to happen.

i did the sale at 643 or so.  and one at 697 or so.

 waiting for an uptick to 750   or a down tick to 650 . for next sale.

 So I will do 3 sales of .8 btc    and they will be at 643, 697,   650-750 .  if it is a long rise up  after i do the 750.  I will then sell at 850.

These patterns do not max profit  but always insure some profit.

we have about 35 blocks for picks to open.

It's much easier to sell BTC when it's nearly $700 than when it was $250. Since my current view of BTC is primarily one of a "volatile, speculative commodity", I don't want to hold it until it falls. My last sale of BTC was in 2013 when it was $800. While I missed selling it at $1200, I also skipped selling it at $250.

I am generally in Phil's camp. Not always optimum, but not a terrible disaster either. If it were to make it to $1000, I am sure I would sell more. I doubt that I am unique in this regard.

Its btc tag, you type


You might try type it in the subject line as well, but I never tried it if it works there.

BTW the price is good, time to start mining with older equipment again - hopefully the price wont crash.

well you can sell 20%  of them  and hodl the rest.  thus insuring that you can not be completely wrong.

you would be either 20% wrong- 80% correct     or 80% wrong -20% correct.


which is better then 100% wrong 0% correct.


I am 59  I have been around long enough to know  doing the 20/80  or 80/20 move is better then the 100/0 or 0/100 move.

The ฿ is a useful symbol
The ฿ is a useful symbol
The ฿ is a useful symbol

How do I type ฿  rather then click and drag it?
I am on a mac.

This is very true I kinda find it hard to part with my BTC unless it is for miners, or I do pull out electricity from it.  I figure worst comes to worst I am not out electricity which adds up.   I cash it out once a month for it.

But I like to hold I have sold some coins over time here and there for something fun.  But I enjoy holding I find it hard to pick a target to sell at.   But with around a month till having I predict I don't sell much.   And I could look like a idiot in two months but time will tell.

 sell 20% of your coin now!  

 hodl the rest

 if coins go to 800 usd sell 15%

if coins go to 1000 usd sell 15%

hold remaining 50% of coins till we hit 1500 usd

Taking profits on btc is very difficult. The method above  or something like it allows for you to be partly correct no matter what happens.

It makes it impossible to be fully wrong.  being fully wrong when you can avoid it must never be allowed to happen.

Fully wrong can happen two ways

1) sell it all  and coins jump to 1000
2) hodl it all and coins drop to 500

you can avoid both above with a partial sale.


I sold .8 btc at 644
I sold .8 btc at 697
I will sell again at 750




back to picks  they open very soon block 1116

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   196,061,423,940
Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,515,148,047 (+3.29%)


Adjust time:   After 1185 Blocks, About 7.8 days     we are 59 blocks away.


Hashrate(?):   1,481,138,865 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
Updated:   9:45 (4.1 minutes ago)


 This round will be the last round prizes are in btc.  so .20 will go to a winner

next round  will be $50 usd if we have a winner or $150 usd if we have a carryover.
I will still pay in BTC no matter what. Just that the btc will soon be based on $ amounts.


Hey  see how I did $    how do I type BTC like that?

Let laziness win! Do nothing! Hodl!

I just don't know.... For Days now I have been thinking of selling half, but not getting round to doing it. I feel we must get a big pull back at some point? Fear & Greed are just fighting in my head. Greed and Laziness winning at the moment....

Rich

And coinbase is officially hitting 700!  Seeing 700.98 cent's can't not make you smile in the morning.   I am surprised again no big sell wall it appears....  just like with 600 we passed through it pretty easy.   

How high do you think we will hit this period?

That makes sense.  Maybe someday the prize will be around 0.00005 btc (woohoo!) and we'll say "Do you remember when you were giving 0.1 btc every round?  That was insane, we can buy a car today with that!"

:-D

Reminds me the pizza for ...how much?  30000 btc?

with a price increase like that sounds very reasonable.

loving the price, we were going to sell some btc a couple months ago for some toys but used fiat instead. while i hodl a good percentage i do sell coins here and there.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   196,061,423,940
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,133,073,029 (+2.59%)
Adjust time:   After 1218 Blocks, About 8.1 days   >>>>> 102 blocks to go
Hashrate(?):   1,446,897,988 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:


I am going to change  prize level .

At 600 .1 btc is  60 usd

at 700 .1 btc is 70 usd

I think prize will be $50  then $100 then $150 then $200

not .1 then .2 then .3    then .4

This will not take effect   this period if someone hits.. they get .20 btc

when this contest was started coins were around 200 so prize was

20 then 40 then 60 then 80

now prize is 70 then  140 then 210 then 280

So I will pay .20 btc this round.

Next round we convert to USD paid in btc.

So next round is $50 if we have a winner this round.

Next round is $150 if it is a carryover based on 50 then 100 then 150.

Exactly I am looking at all my excel sheets (I love excel) and having to update with number I just did not see coming so quick.   That 600 barrier I thought there would be some sales walls and drawn out.   But we have just been blowing through my predictions which is great.  I tend to be a realistic investor a month ago I did was not even playing with almost 700 USD in my sheets.

And the amazing thing is we have around a month till having.... so I sitting back loving watching this.   Going to be a interesting month for sure.

Yesterday was +1.39% with 146 Blocks and the Period to Date Run Rate seems to have settled at +5% for the moment. Three up Days on the Coin whereas only Yesterday I was wondering if the break trough $600 would hold we are now close to testing $700   All sorts of ROI maths and older Miner profitability calculations need to be redone....


Rich

Bitwsidom still looks pretty good.  A few month's ago I would have never guessed low numbers leading into having... but it's nice:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    196,061,423,940
Estimated Next Difficulty:    201,541,650,244 (+2.80%)
Adjust time:    After 1246 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,446,710,566 GH/s

Coinbase is currently 692  that is right we are approaching 700.  Just again going into having if this continues... it is a good time for bitcoin.

Not sure and they now have more then 25 million usd in that address!


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   196,061,423,940
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,802,916,705 (+2.93%)

Adjust time:   After 1272 Blocks, About 8.4 days>>>  we start in 156 blocks  so some time monday nite eastern standard time.


Hashrate(?):   1,446,261,937 GH/s


Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
Updated:   21:35 (4.7 minutes ago)

Thanks for doing this math. If it's accurate, they really haven't sold many units.

There are probably a lot of folks on the sidelines waiting for the BTC cost of the S9s to go down. I'm one of them. I really want to buy, but can't justify spending more BTC on a miner than it will likely make in a year.

Bitmain must know that their pricing choices have limited sales. So it's either intentional and part of their master plan, or out of their control (maybe they can't produce enough chips).

My guess is that they're happy to mine with their own S9s up to the halving, while at the same time enjoying the premium that they're getting from early adopters of a limited release. If BW ever does release publicly, Bitmain can respond then with lower priced batches, killing the competition (again). Until then they can cruse into the halving with high S9 unit prices.

In the meantime, BTC prices have shot up resulting in a new high point in mining profitability. If this price holds (or goes up) my original estimate of around 140 PH/s going offline after the halving is probably too high. Older machines will remain profitable, so why turn them off. So people who are depending on a significant difficulty reduction after the halving for their ROI calculations are probably in for a surprise. But with higher BTC prices maybe they won't care.

As an aside, why does Bitmain reuse receive addresses? Seems lazy on their part and possibly dangerous because it leaks sales information.

Thank you for the addy, since 2016-05-30 to 2016-06-08 (not many 3+ BTC deposits since 2016-06-06) I counted about 392 possible S9 batch 1 ; I counted 1 S9 = about 4 BTC when 3+ BTC deposit (so 15 BTC deposit = 4x, 6.5 BTC = 2x and so on). I did not included one massive 4811 BTC deposit though, but I added 3 times about 80 BTC deposit even though the max should be 20 BTC with 5 units.

Since 2016-06-09 to now I counted additional 228 possible S9 (batch 2?)


So the 600 S9s does represents about half percent of additional network hashrate - nothing to worry about at all - it seems pretty insignificant number of S9 sold so far.