Topic: Diff thread Oct 1 to Oct 14 picks are Closed. 2x bonus! + a surprise? - page 3. (Read 7558 times)

I think this means batch 2/3 of S7's are not made yet.  They are shipping all  they can to not have to compensate (even though its a crappy compensation).  But I think there is a data center that is ready to be filled up with a ton of S7's.

I could be wrong and they are already on the network.  But I still think batch 2/3 will have a little bump in difficulty (a 5 percent or so week whenever they do get them online).  Or that's what I speculate atleast.

yeah I thought it would be more.  as I type  we are at 105 blocks for the day  and we are 18 hours and 17 minutes in.

So 6 x 18 = 108  + 1 = 109 'norm'  105 real

this is a good thing.  we only have 409 blocks left

It's pretty amazing that we haven't seen a huge single bump in diff like we all expected going back an adjustment or two.  I guess the roll out of all the new hardware was more staged than anticipated, it wasn't like someone just threw the ON switch and added multi-PH to the network.

Difficulty speculation continues to be entertaining, let's see what the winter brings!

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10/1/2015    153------------   + 9  about + 4 for this adjustment period.  
10/2/2015    130 ------------   -14                      so as of 11 pm we are about a - 10
10/3/2015    145 ------------ + 1         so we are near -9
10/4/2015    158 ------------  +14         +5
10/5/2015    151-------------  +7          +12 total
10/6/2015    146 ------------  +2           +14 total
10/7/2015    132 ------------ -12               +2 total
10/8/2015    137 ------------  -7                -5 total
10/9/2015    132 ------------ -12               -17
10/10/2015  154 ------------ +10               -7
10/11/2015  153 ------------ +9                 +2

we have made 1526 blocks  we should have made 1524  we are currently  (+0.131%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+1.37%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty:   61,646,649,053 (+1.37%)
Adjust time:   After 490 Blocks, About 3.4 days
Hashrate(?):   438,521,366 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   0:0 (2.2 minutes ago)


only 490 left with the 1000 s-7's mining at  hashnest  we will pull higher   so maybe +1.5 to + 2.0

then the s-7's shipped will kick in the next jump  so maybe 2% to 4% for that one

Bitwisdom is still looking pretty good tonight:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty:    61,547,034,048 (+1.21%)
Adjust time:    After 497 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):    434,428,757 GH/s

Price up a tad at 247 pretty nice at the moment.

Sounds like pretty much the perfect week.  Would really love a negative difficulty its been to long.

Also price around 245 so price has done a good job of not falling back in 230's this period.  Which is awesome.

10/1/2015    153------------   + 9  about + 4 for this adjustment period.  
10/2/2015    130 ------------   -14                      so as of 11 pm we are about a - 10
10/3/2015    145 ------------ + 1         so we are near -9
10/4/2015    158 ------------  +14         +5
10/5/2015    151-------------  +7          +12 total
10/6/2015    146 ------------  +2           +14 total
10/7/2015    132 ------------ -12               +2 total
10/8/2015    137 ------------  -7                -5 total
10/9/2015    132 ------------ -12               -17
10/10/2015  154 ------------ +10               -7


we have made 1369 blocks  we should have made 1376  we are currently  (-0.508%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+1.22%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty:   61,553,932,379 (+1.22%)
Adjust time:   After 647 Blocks, About 4.5 days
Hashrate(?):   425,025,482 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   22:45 (5.4 minutes ago)


so  real number  =  -0.508%

bitcoinwisdom =    +1.220%

647 blocks left  so 4 or 5 days   there is time to drift up from -0.50 to +1.00  but I don't see us going past +1 or + 2  .  Todays small jump up was very likely the s-7 going online with hashnest.  they sold 1000 pieces of s-7 this is 4.8ph which is 1% which is the jump we did.

As do I and a list of tracking addresses to tell where they all are and when they will get set up ^^

That said looking at it now it likely will stabalize at +-1% or the rough range this round with 757 blocks left

Bitcoin Difficulty: 60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty: 61,416,445,072 (+0.99%) 
Adjust time: After 757 Blocks, About 5.3 days 

1.40% = 5.6ph  of the network so if the network is 400ph      So   that is  1100 maybe 1200 s-7's

I will happily take a negative.  It's been too long since that.    And very nice compared to 5's.

What I wonder is how many S7's are in the mail right now. Wish there was a good way to tell.

10/1/2015    153------------   + 9  about + 4 for this adjustment period.  
10/2/2015    130 ------------   -14                      so as of 11 pm we are about a - 10
10/3/2015    145 ------------ + 1         so we are near -9
10/4/2015    158 ------------  +14         +5
10/5/2015    151-------------  +7          +12 total
10/6/2015    146 ------------  +2           +14 total
10/7/2015    132 ------------ -12               +2 total
10/8/2015    137 ------------  -7                -5 total
10/9/2015    132 ------------ -12               -17

1205 made and we should be 1222  so we are  -1.39%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     (+0.55%)  this just a bit too high.

with 811 blocks left and the weekend coming up I see a possible neg adjustment.

to follow up on blocks today  we look to be under 130  which is really nice.

With a weekend coming and columbus day this monday.  sat sun mon may all be slow days.

Tues then Weds would pick up.  I think we could do a neg.


  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+1.31%)  nice and low but we are more like -1.55% right now.

Interesting I guess I am thinking about getting every last penny out of old gear.   But you are likely right if paid for they really don't care what happens to old gear.

I guess I'm use to bitmain where they sell like S5's that were used.   Bitfurry does avoid general public at all costs it seems. Were still waiting for the lightbulb.

yeah if the gear turned a profit  they don't need to sell it off.

big builder/miner has no need to sell gear that will hash against him if he is flush with profits.

My guess is 100ph of old gear that could mine sits and waits to be scrapped.

Old gear ends up piled in a corner somewhere waiting for the e-recyclers to come and haul it away!  Most of the time I don't think it's cost efficient for large operations to spend time setting up old gear, even if it is still viable to run (on paper).

people have received shipping info over the last 10 - 20 hours.  So no question that s-7's are shipping.

Does it mean bitmaintech took 4ph offline and packed it for sale maybe.

Or maybe KNC/Bitfury/sFards had a fail and a big plant went offline or maybe both.

The good thing is we are absolutely in Neg territory as I type.


  https://blockchain.info/blocks


378177 (Main Chain)   2015-10-09 21:21:29


378063 (Main Chain)   2015-10-09 00:06:47


115 blocks actual vs 128 norm  so far   .  6 x 21 = 126 + 2 = 128     that is a neg 13    we were neg 5 so we are 18 blocks off a 0 pace.


we have 1185 blocks made  we should be 1203  so 1185/1203 = 0.9805037 =   -1.496% even bitcoinwisdom has dropped to +1.43%

No one picked under -1.50%  would be funny if we got that low.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty:   61,683,035,870 (+1.43%)
Adjust time:   After 831 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   410,275,472 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   17:25 (1.6 minutes ago)


With 830 blocks left to adj  time is running out I would love to see -1%.

Anyone know why the difficulty is going down slightly? Are any S7 units getting shipped?

Only reason would be cost of building another data center.   I imagine it takes a lot of guaranteed profit to open another one. And add employees it just get's more expensive.

On Bitfury I wonder on upgrades as I don't see them messing with selling to public on gear.

If it was still profitable and they had the power and the room why would they take it out of service? That is unless you were Bitmain and you were selling 2nd hand miners. 

Rich

I've seen some bulk used equipment sales - only the really old stuff is going offline completely. They don't sell it to consumers as they want "as is where is, no service" sales on the used stuff.