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Topic: Difficulty jumps 28% (Read 11479 times)

newbie
Activity: 12
Merit: 0
July 06, 2013, 10:24:03 AM
There are other startups hashing themselves and producing (and selling) ASIC hashing hardware, not to mention that GPU hashing is still going on and people are still joining just for fun, even if they won't care about profit. 

Asicminer is hashing themselves and selling devices to people.  Chips are now being sold as well, presumably all those chips will be hashing soon .. we're going to get flooded with hashes at an even faster pace now once Avalon and BFL buyers become the minority in the ASIC market. 
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
July 05, 2013, 11:20:04 AM
so from june 5 to july 5 we're up 12m to 21m almost 100% increase... wow... and MOST of the backorders for BFL and Avalon are not filled - in fact batch 3 hasn't even shipped and many customers have requested refunds. As for BFL only a couple hundred 5 GH/s and a few SC and no rigs have shipped.
Or, looking at hashrate increase: from 130TH/s to 180TH/s. That's 50TH/s. How to account that in shipped units!? Must be that Avalon batch 2 is finalized and hashing (~40TH/s).
full member
Activity: 148
Merit: 100
July 05, 2013, 10:49:54 AM
so from june 5 to july 5 we're up 12m to 21m almost 100% increase... wow... and MOST of the backorders for BFL and Avalon are not filled - in fact batch 3 hasn't even shipped and many customers have requested refunds. As for BFL only a couple hundred 5 GH/s and a few SC and no rigs have shipped.

And Asicminer must have moved over 10,000 usb sticks at .3 MH/s each thats 3TH/s if you add it up, some serious hash for little sticks. And July 10 new asicminers being announced which will probably spur sales.

Looks like every month for at least the next few months its surely going to be close to doubling
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
July 04, 2013, 04:35:14 AM
ASIC owners? Where?
A few hundred Jalapeno owners, a few hundred Avalon owners, and... and... well, that's all.
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 255
July 03, 2013, 11:13:20 PM
BTC will go down until it is almost worthless.

Reasons:
1. ASIC owners have no reason to keep their BTC when everyone else who has an ASIC is selling to recoup cost.
2. Aforementioned worsens the effects of rising difficulty by correlating them to dropping price.
3. 1 & 2 basically guarantee the demise of BTC price until a laughable level, not sure what that level is.
4. End result is extreme deflation - you haven't seen anything yet.

Simply, there is now a race to sell as many BTC as you possibly can before everyone else gets their ASIC. This is doom scenario reality.

Awesome... can't wait to buy lots more at 50 and 10!
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
July 03, 2013, 05:04:08 PM
BTC will go down until it is almost worthless.

Reasons:
1. ASIC owners have no reason to keep their BTC when everyone else who has an ASIC is selling to recoup cost.
2. Aforementioned worsens the effects of rising difficulty by correlating them to dropping price.
3. 1 & 2 basically guarantee the demise of BTC price until a laughable level, not sure what that level is.
4. End result is extreme deflation - you haven't seen anything yet.

Simply, there is now a race to sell as many BTC as you possibly can before everyone else gets their ASIC. This is doom scenario reality.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
July 03, 2013, 03:47:56 PM
Has anyone notice other than me that this is exponential?

What I mean here is that you need new hardware sooner and you get less time to make your money back. Also the new hardware needs to be 1000 times more powerful.

To make things worse less people get a chance at this every tech cycle. These trends are very disturbing.
Most disturbing trends, really.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
July 03, 2013, 03:44:13 PM
...
Hey has anyone figured out where that 9% of unaccounted hashing power is coming from?
No. And it's still increasing every week. 192 unaccounted blocks in last 2016.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
July 03, 2013, 11:45:55 AM
Has anyone notice other than me that this is exponential?

What I mean here is that you need new hardware sooner and you get less time to make your money back. Also the new hardware needs to be 1000 times more powerful.

To make things worse less people get a chance at this every tech cycle. These trends are very disturbing.

Hey has anyone figured out where that 9% of unaccounted hashing power is coming from?

hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
July 03, 2013, 05:52:59 AM

About gauging solominers: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/top.php. No data for 7.94% network hashrate. Increased 2% last week.

The unaccounted for mining power is worrying. That could be the potential source of attack. If the accounted for mining power is increasing faster, that is reasurring.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
June 29, 2013, 04:00:44 PM
During that 28% jump, and the next (24%), network hashrate increased for about 60 Thash.
I'm trying to figure out who put that new hashing power online.
Acording to http://www.asicminercharts.com/, ASICMiner increase is about 20T in that period. In that time Avalon shipped a few batch 2 units, and BFL some (hundreds?) jalapenos. That would be 10 T tops, I think.
Where did the rest, 30 T of that new power come from?
And still hashing online.
Remember not all asic miners are going to pools. I really don't know if it's greed or maybe just being bashful of possessing a large hasher. So how do you gauge solo miners out there?

Anyone know?
Wasn't talking about pools.
Total network hashrate increased for 60T, and there is only about 30T of that hash power that we can say we know the source (ASICMiner + Avalon batch 2 + BFL). And that other 30T?

About gauging solominers: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/top.php. No data for 7.94% network hashrate. Increased 2% last week.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
June 29, 2013, 03:04:13 PM
During that 28% jump, and the next (24%), network hashrate increased for about 60 Thash.
I'm trying to figure out who put that new hashing power online.
Acording to http://www.asicminercharts.com/, ASICMiner increase is about 20T in that period. In that time Avalon shipped a few batch 2 units, and BFL some (hundreds?) jalapenos. That would be 10 T tops, I think.
Where did the rest, 30 T of that new power come from?
And still hashing online.
Remember not all asic miners are going to pools. I really don't know if it's greed or maybe just being bashful of possessing a large hasher. So how do you gauge solo miners out there?

Anyone know?
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
June 29, 2013, 01:52:11 PM
During that 28% jump, and the next (24%), network hashrate increased for about 60 Thash.
I'm trying to figure out who put that new hashing power online.
Acording to http://www.asicminercharts.com/, ASICMiner increase is about 20T in that period. In that time Avalon shipped a few batch 2 units, and BFL some (hundreds?) jalapenos. That would be 10 T tops, I think.
Where did the rest, 30 T of that new power come from?
And still hashing online.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
June 29, 2013, 12:40:09 PM
i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

I'm thinking exactly the same thing. In fact the recent fall from ~130 to ~100USD pretty much corresponds to the onset of ASICs.

Mining/speculation is a HUGE part of the market.

I was predicting this happening to my self a while ago. My thoughts were along the line of 'easy come easy go' and anyone who does not have sufficient amount of money will tend to hold it stronger.

So if we have Asic's coming in thinking this is easy money they will trade it much easier. If this begins to happen then BTC drops and scares the rest in selling before it drops further.

I also believe a great deal of ASIC purchaser are new to the game and will not hold. With the first dump being the cashing out to pay for the units before they become useless.

After the easy money is over with the plateauing of difficulty then prices will rise. Before this Litcoin will increase to 10 dollars and that will pull a great deal of attention from Bitcoin.

Nevertheless Bitcoin will drop, as for a guess I suspect 65-75-85 range. Who knows?
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
June 29, 2013, 08:51:43 AM
i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

I'm thinking exactly the same thing. In fact the recent fall from ~130 to ~100USD pretty much corresponds to the onset of ASICs.

Mining/speculation is a HUGE part of the market.
I think that trend will continue, too  Grin

well, I was wrong about difficulty, anyway... it's going to go up like 11%, not 20%.. so I guess I'll leave the GPUs I have left going as I sell them off, well.. I'm also basing it off a price of $95, which I think will drop more...  too many people still trying to "pay off" those overpriced ASICs from asicminer... but @ $95, it's about $40/mo for ghash, after elec

(if it had gone up like 25% or so, i think i'd just shut them off, possibility of equipment failure + my time spent == greater than what I get from it, etc)
full member
Activity: 181
Merit: 100
June 28, 2013, 03:05:52 AM
i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

I'm thinking exactly the same thing. In fact the recent fall from ~130 to ~100USD pretty much corresponds to the onset of ASICs.

Mining/speculation is a HUGE part of the market.
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
June 27, 2013, 09:52:04 PM
i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
June 26, 2013, 07:41:08 PM
just because the mining has turn into the sport of kings doesn't mean btc itself just dies..  that is pretty self serving to say that.  You must be the ones that mine alt coins and try to pump and dump all of them..

if you are sick of the mining game, then create services or retail that deals in btc and get your btc that way..  you don't have to just mine and dump

stop thinking you all are saints if you can't see past your own greed
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
June 24, 2013, 11:08:07 AM
Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

Bitcoin should change the hashing algorithm (from SHA-256 to SHA-512 or Scrypt or ...) to show those fuckers this here:



Bitcoin was meant to be democratic and decentralized. What we see since about 1/2 year is quite the opposite development: Bitcoin becomes more and more Bankster-like.

Profitability is tanking because of the combined greed of miners and these companies, the problem will correct itself in time when the hashpower plateaus, because why would you buy a miner now that the ROI is nowhere near what it was. Sales of these things will flatline along with it.

Unless Bitcoin increases in value dramatically nothing good will come of all this. Gold Rush 2.0, get ready to see some digital ghost towns appear

Yea you got the greed part right! What they should have done was come out slowly with USB sticks first where you could run along side with GPU's with out the power consumption. To be honest I don't think it matters anymore or I just don't give a shit. Bitcoin is going down the wrong path and we will see by the end of the year what that means.

Either way very interesting drama and I wonder if the next jump will look like the one we just saw.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
www.DonateMedia.org
June 24, 2013, 06:08:47 AM
Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

Bitcoin should change the hashing algorithm (from SHA-256 to SHA-512 or Scrypt or ...) to show those fuckers this here:



Bitcoin was meant to be democratic and decentralized. What we see since about 1/2 year is quite the opposite development: Bitcoin becomes more and more Bankster-like.

Profitability is tanking because of the combined greed of miners and these companies, the problem will correct itself in time when the hashpower plateaus, because why would you buy a miner now that the ROI is nowhere near what it was. Sales of these things will flatline along with it.

Unless Bitcoin increases in value dramatically nothing good will come of all this. Gold Rush 2.0, get ready to see some digital ghost towns appear
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