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Topic: Difficulty jumps 28% - page 2. (Read 11479 times)

hero member
Activity: 1162
Merit: 500
June 24, 2013, 05:12:43 AM
Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

Bitcoin should change the hashing algorithm (from SHA-256 to SHA-512 or Scrypt or ...) to show those fuckers this here:



Bitcoin was meant to be democratic and decentralized. What we see since about 1/2 year is quite the opposite development: Bitcoin becomes more and more Bankster-like.
full member
Activity: 123
Merit: 100
June 23, 2013, 08:57:36 PM
The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.

ASICMiner and other private equity folks are happily printing money, while the rest of the forumers continue to get screw by pre-order delays Smiley


Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
June 23, 2013, 06:28:03 AM
This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.
That's why I don't tend to calculate btc/day, but rather btc/retarget, and retarget is 2016 blocks. no matter how many days.
btc/retarget = myHashes * 600 (seconds) * 2016 (blocks) * 25 (reward)  / 2^32 / diff

Is this formula right?
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
June 23, 2013, 04:07:35 AM

 I am guessing this 19 million thingy will stop here for another while? How long until we see 20 million+? so whens the next jump Cheesy I started out on this march madness and was 9 million or so , now 19 million Cheesy I think I was a 'wee' bit late Cheesy

here, what i posted on june 16th:

It'll go up 20%, 25% or more for the next few cycles.  Then eventually the hobbyists will stop spending all their excess cash and the difficulty level won't increase as much.

all the prices for ASICs and such I have seen lately are ludicrous

but I applaud the business savvy of those folks that have sold/are selling their avalon 2's atm


wtf thinking it would stay at 19m?
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 05:15:35 PM
With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

The problem is most people don't know the first thing about economics. Look at it like this:

You have spent $1,000 for your ASIC. It is generating 1 BTC a month that right now is worth $10. In a year, you've earned $120. Now you are earning 0.5 BTC but the price of each BTC has gone up to $1,000. So now you are earning $500 a month. You've "recouped" your initial investment now in 14 months, right? Wrong!

Instead of spending $1,000 on that ASIC, you could have bought 100 BTC's at $10 each. Now, 14 months later, you have not broken even on your $1,000, but you instead have $100,000, 100 times your initial investment.

This is what people are failing to realize. They are considering how many BTC they get, vs. what they may be worth in the future, but the fact is that they would be earning a LOT more if they had spent their money to buy BTC outright and held it. Not to mention they would have their stuff right that second, instead of waiting it out.

People who paid, say 100 BTC back when they were $2 each for an ASIC are happy because they have made a few hundred in profit. If they had held those same 100 BTC, they would be worth $10,000+ now. In essence, they have lost money by getting ASICs.

This is only true in hind sight. Very easy to say now. Uncertainty and risk can move this the other way now. Although you are correct how many are applying this with alternates now. I believe all alternates are not being purchased with cash but most are with existing btc that have already gained in price.

I brought this up because of the number of people willing to throw, say 300 BTC in to a 72 GH/s ASIC and claiming it will get them a positive ROI. They are making that decision based on the assumption that BTC will be going up in value, but if that's true they will still have earned more by keeping the 300 BTC. The only way to get a true positive ROI out of the investment is not to receive the amount that was paid (in this case we'll say $30,000), but rather 300 BTC. It doesn't matter if BTC goes up to $50,000,000, if the ASIC does not earn the same amount of BTC that was put in to it, the investor has lost money.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
June 22, 2013, 04:28:06 PM
With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

The problem is most people don't know the first thing about economics. Look at it like this:

You have spent $1,000 for your ASIC. It is generating 1 BTC a month that right now is worth $10. In a year, you've earned $120. Now you are earning 0.5 BTC but the price of each BTC has gone up to $1,000. So now you are earning $500 a month. You've "recouped" your initial investment now in 14 months, right? Wrong!

Instead of spending $1,000 on that ASIC, you could have bought 100 BTC's at $10 each. Now, 14 months later, you have not broken even on your $1,000, but you instead have $100,000, 100 times your initial investment.

This is what people are failing to realize. They are considering how many BTC they get, vs. what they may be worth in the future, but the fact is that they would be earning a LOT more if they had spent their money to buy BTC outright and held it. Not to mention they would have their stuff right that second, instead of waiting it out.

People who paid, say 100 BTC back when they were $2 each for an ASIC are happy because they have made a few hundred in profit. If they had held those same 100 BTC, they would be worth $10,000+ now. In essence, they have lost money by getting ASICs.

This is only true in hind sight. Very easy to say now. Uncertainty and risk can move this the other way now. Although you are correct how many are applying this with alternates now. I believe all alternates are not being purchased with cash but most are with existing btc that have already gained in price.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
June 22, 2013, 04:20:34 PM
With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

The problem is most people don't know the first thing about economics. Look at it like this:

You have spent $1,000 for your ASIC. It is generating 1 BTC a month that right now is worth $10. In a year, you've earned $120. Now you are earning 0.5 BTC but the price of each BTC has gone up to $1,000. So now you are earning $500 a month. You've "recouped" your initial investment now in 14 months, right? Wrong!

Instead of spending $1,000 on that ASIC, you could have bought 100 BTC's at $10 each. Now, 14 months later, you have not broken even on your $1,000, but you instead have $100,000, 100 times your initial investment.

This is what people are failing to realize. They are considering how many BTC they get, vs. what they may be worth in the future, but the fact is that they would be earning a LOT more if they had spent their money to buy BTC outright and held it. Not to mention they would have their stuff right that second, instead of waiting it out.

People who paid, say 100 BTC back when they were $2 each for an ASIC are happy because they have made a few hundred in profit. If they had held those same 100 BTC, they would be worth $10,000+ now. In essence, they have lost money by getting ASICs.
full member
Activity: 232
Merit: 100
June 21, 2013, 09:15:26 AM
It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?

The mark up on the chips are very high, so they are already making handsome profits.     In addition, they sit on the orders, and mined with customer equipment to double/triple their profits.

In the future, they will just market the next generation ASIC with higher efficiency and slightly lower cost, and they will be able to start the pre-order + bulk buy scam all over again to reap even more money from the community. 

They are smart people.  Don't need to worry for them Smiley
newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0
June 21, 2013, 07:40:16 AM
It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
June 21, 2013, 06:27:32 AM
#99
This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.

You are right about the mechanic, if the hash rate goes up significantly after a retarget, then until the next retarget bitcoins will be generated at a rate faster than 3600/day. That was the case for the last 2 retargets, but at the moment that is not the case for the current period, over the past 24 hours blocks have been generated every 9min45sec on average, that's very close to the "intended" rate.
full member
Activity: 131
Merit: 100
June 21, 2013, 06:09:09 AM
#98
Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.


This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
June 20, 2013, 05:08:31 PM
#97
June 13 2013



June 20 2013




I am guessing here but most large pools will lose more GPU's in the coming weeks as their luck in finding blocks dwindle. Bitminter has been a steady 13 THs for a bit of time and from the two screen shots we can see the decline. June 13 there were 10 with over 100,000 Mhs and now only 2 remain.



Asic miners going Solo mining and trying their luck at being the sole winners of the reward. I think this will back fire for most and they will join pools again by the next difficulty. Very interesting watching this all happen.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
June 20, 2013, 04:35:55 PM
#96

 I am guessing this 19 million thingy will stop here for another while? How long until we see 20 million+? so whens the next jump Cheesy I started out on this march madness and was 9 million or so , now 19 million Cheesy I think I was a 'wee' bit late Cheesy
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
June 19, 2013, 07:02:31 PM
#95
this drop or leveling off of net hash is because ASICminer seems to be having some problems with their machines and have cut their output to 20Theta and still falling. I don't expect them to be turning off their machines unless something really fucked up happened to them.

http://www.asicminercharts.com/
full member
Activity: 260
Merit: 100
June 19, 2013, 06:08:20 PM
#94
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Huh? The relationship between the two is very simple.

Global Hash Rate = 7,158,388 * Difficulty


Exactly. There is no difference between predicting difficulty and predicting hash rate.
donator
Activity: 1617
Merit: 1012
June 19, 2013, 05:57:07 PM
#93
Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Huh? The relationship between the two is very simple.

Global Hash Rate = 7,158,388 * Difficulty



sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Bitcoin is the future...
June 19, 2013, 11:58:27 AM
#92
Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
June 19, 2013, 05:12:44 AM
#91
You are right of course.
But i think the truly massive rises may be behind us.

Oh, the massive rise is just getting started.

that is closer to reality. 400 ths Bitfury, batch 3 avalon, 600 ths avalon chips sold.  10pts by end of the year. Before that still can be OK for avalons and asicminer, but question is who will pass 10pts, BitFury will pass, BFL perhaps too. By that time we may get new ASICminer chips which will be on same level with BitFury or even better. In any situation there will be some solution, nobody going to stop mining. Brutal yeah, but doible.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
June 18, 2013, 09:19:51 AM
#90
and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

yeah, it'll flatten out for the first day or so as people with gpus switch them off.  then it'll jump back up again, as all these blade thingamajigs and whatever else comes online that people are throwing their money at

this obv doesnt include the avalon asic round 2 ppl, that got it for, what, $1000?  i overslept that day, damnit



I've been pretty scared to jump on asics in general, just because look at how it's been... you buy and wait 1+ years to get your purchase? Even with them shipping now, I can still see there being a 1+ year wait for those who order now.
zvs
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
June 18, 2013, 08:24:16 AM
#89
and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

yeah, it'll flatten out for the first day or so as people with gpus switch them off.  then it'll jump back up again, as all these blade thingamajigs and whatever else comes online that people are throwing their money at

this obv doesnt include the avalon asic round 2 ppl, that got it for, what, $1000?  i overslept that day, damnit

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