No one ever knows. ASICMiner is at about 30TH/sec now, some batch 2 Avalons are arriving, buncha chumps bought up ASICMiner blades, some unknown quantity of people have been getting jalapenos, and probably someone is sitting around mining with peoples preorder ASICs (maybe, dunno).
Only thing we can say is, It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better for almost anybody.
Topic: Difficulty jumps 28% - page 6. (Read 11479 times)
So what happened this last 2 weeks then?
Did BFL start delivering more than a couple of units?
Did ASICMiner crank up some more blades?
Are Avalon mining with my unit
Did BFL start delivering more than a couple of units?
Did ASICMiner crank up some more blades?
Are Avalon mining with my unit
Hi guys, we are a bunch of guts who also keep watching difficulty change, so we build a lottery game for guessing difficulty. It just released, you can check out this website to see how other people bet the future difficulty for your reference or you can play with it! It's fun!
Website: http://btcfarseer.com
Forum Post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2386345
Website: http://btcfarseer.com
Forum Post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2386345
I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.
At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.
If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?
Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.
-Burger-
At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.
If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?
Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.
-Burger-
Machine that you can't buy now, i.e. you have to pre-order with blind faith, can potentially make profit. But you have no certainty on when they will ship. BFL only shipped some small quanity of 5G/hs machine to customers that pre-ordered 1 years ago, and Avalon have missed their Batch 2 pre-order by close to 2 months now.
A 50G/hs machine may have a potential life time earning of 280 BTC, but each week delay is going to cost your 25+ BTC lost in revenue if the current difficulty growth trend continue. If you receive the machine only in the 10th week, you would not make any profit from the mining, and would be better off spending the money to buy bitcoin directly now.
On the other hand, Machines that you can buy now, such as ASICMIner's USB stick or Blade, are so overpriced that you will never make back your investment.
At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.
If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?
Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.
-Burger-
If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?
Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.
-Burger-
Keyword is BFL... if they delivered on what they said everyone on this forum would have multiple asic's but read other threads on BFL and see their issues.
Quote
In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.
Quote
That's right, the price per GH/s for ASICs that you can get right now are just too high and it will take a year or more at current and slightly higher difficulties to recoup that initial investment.
I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.
At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.
If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?
Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.
-Burger-
And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?
Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.
Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.
Yup, I got reamed for my "GPU's will not pay back" thread when assuming around 18% increases (which has been about average for a few months, and ASICs have only started trickling out). It's very difficult to find ANY investment right now that is a sure thing.
Maybe buying Bitcoins with fiat? I just started mining last month with some GPUs I bought off of Craigslist, so I'm way late to the party, but I got them cheap enough that I should be able to at least break even, but that's about it.
Anyone want to hazard a guess at what the difficulty will be in November 2013 or December 2013?
60 million?
60 million?
Feb 2nd 2013 75m - 110m
GPU's wont become useless they will just farm alt coins and exchange for BTC, The BTC market is about to take a whole bunch of steroids. Pulling up a recliner for this firework show over the coming months.
See what all you Preorders have done!
And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?
Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.
Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.
Yup, I got reamed for my "GPU's will not pay back" thread when assuming around 18% increases (which has been about average for a few months, and ASICs have only started trickling out). It's very difficult to find ANY investment right now that is a sure thing.
And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?
Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.
Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.
Ouch! I need Savlon for my bunghole
The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.
ASICMiner and other private equity folks are happily printing money, while the rest of the forumers continue to get screw by pre-order delays
ASICMiner and other private equity folks are happily printing money, while the rest of the forumers continue to get screw by pre-order delays
Well, even if the ASICs had come earlier would have just meant a bump in difficulty sooner. I only get discouraged by the lack of time spent mining rather than the potential profit.
Difficulty jumped to 15.6 million from 12.1 million, a 28% increase. Welcome to ASIC world...be very careful with your hardware investments!
I agree with you. Sadly, some poor soul just "won" an auction and paid 281BTC for an Avalon that is very unlikely to ever earn that much from this point forward...
The latest difficulty jump also makes ASICMiner Blades a very poor buy at 50BTC.
Jalapeno's are even going for ~20BTC.
In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.
That's right, the price per GH/s for ASICs that you can get right now are just too high and it will take a year or more at current and slightly higher difficulties to recoup that initial investment. The difficulty is due to skyrocket within 6 months.
Difficulty jumped to 15.6 million from 12.1 million, a 28% increase. Welcome to ASIC world...be very careful with your hardware investments!
I agree with you. Sadly, some poor soul just "won" an auction and paid 281BTC for an Avalon that is very unlikely to ever earn that much from this point forward...
The latest difficulty jump also makes ASICMiner Blades a very poor buy at 50BTC.
Jalapeno's are even going for ~20BTC.
In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.
My GPUs are still profitable, and they'll probably last through the next two difficulty changes (so maybe six weeks all told) but unless price skyrockets comparably, they're on their last legs.
Actually what's annoying is, I got an ASICminer blade some 17 days ago, and only AFTER I got it, did I think of calculating ROI.
Turns out that a sustained diff increase of ~14% will just breakeven BTC wise. Last but one difficulty change was 8.6%. Yay!
Now we just had 28.4%. Boo! 
Actually what's annoying is, I got an ASICminer blade some 17 days ago, and only AFTER I got it, did I think of calculating ROI.
Turns out that a sustained diff increase of ~14% will just breakeven BTC wise. Last but one difficulty change was 8.6%. Yay!
Now we just had 28.4%. Boo!
Anyone want to hazard a guess at what the difficulty will be in November 2013 or December 2013?
60 million?
60 million?
At this difficulty growth, all those guys paying over 4BTC/Ghs in the Auction section will never make back their investment.
First owner of Avalon and BFL equipment can still make some decent profit -- if their machine ships.
First owner of Avalon and BFL equipment can still make some decent profit -- if their machine ships.
Sad, but true.
Ouch!
15605632.6813
15605632.6813
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