Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) - page 46.

Matthew N. Wright

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Quote from: ?? on ??

how are you still accepting bets? Huh

I'd also like to double down if allowed with the caveat that the other half (400BTC worth) is currently in USD, but will be converted if you need me to prove I have the funds.

let me know if you have any conditions. Thanks.

800BTC
1EzdZBu6DJUqScXFbRYbTXPqTcXNAUKAxc

Accepted.

nimda

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0xFB0D8D1534241423

Matthew, if possible, please bump me to 5 BTC. Thanks.

DigitalHermit

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Thank you! Thank you! ...

Quote from: bitcoiners on September 06, 2012, 01:04:34 AM

Quote from: Rassah on September 05, 2012, 12:24:32 PM

A scammer vs. a dumbass.

He's a dumbass for taking more bets even now. He's a scammer if he doesn't pay out. It's that simple.

BTW, There's no way he can win this. I won't accept anything less than 100% of Pirate's original agreement when this bet was made. That includes interest to the hour of payout. So everyone should pile on the bets. And if you're a business partner or future business partner of Matthew's. I'd be watching this closely.

Of course he can win it. Although the probability is small and shrinking that everyone will be paid back 100% plus interest to the hour of payout, it is still not zero. Since you are dishing out vocabulary lessons on tags, let me add that suggesting everyone should "pile on the bets" makes you a shill if this bet turns out to be a scam collusion between Matthew and Pirate, despite Matthew's protestations to the contrary.

As always, only bet what you can afford to lose.

BTW, Matthew is speaking at the Bitcoin conference in London one week after the expiration date on his bet. Will it be a tough crowd?
http://www.bitcoin2012.com/speakers

Bitcoin Oz

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Wat

Quote from: bitcoiners on September 06, 2012, 01:04:34 AM

Quote from: Rassah on September 05, 2012, 12:24:32 PM

A scammer vs. a dumbass.

He's a dumbass for taking more bets even now. He's a scammer if he doesn't pay out. It's that simple.

BTW, There's no way he can win this. I won't accept anything less than 100% of Pirate's original agreement when this bet was made. That includes interest to the hour of payout. So everyone should pile on the bets. And if you're a business partner or future business partner of Matthew's. I'd be watching this closely.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/proposed-removal-of-matthew-n-wright-from-forum-staff-100127

mp420

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I'm thinking Matthew's going to quit bitcoin when he loses his bet. Having followed this discussion I'm fairly sure that he'll at least try to pay back everything (in contrast to Pirate, who won't). I get the idea that he wants to be right so much, he has actually psyched himself to believe that Pirate is honest. Losing the bet will mean he's going to have to admit that his worldview has been too rosy, that people who appear trustworthy in many cases aren't, and that his beloved bitcoin community is actually full of scammers and criminals, just as you'd expect of any community centered on handling money in a hard-to-trace way.

bitcoiners

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Quote from: Rassah on September 05, 2012, 12:24:32 PM

A scammer vs. a dumbass.

He's a dumbass for taking more bets even now. He's a scammer if he doesn't pay out. It's that simple.

BTW, There's no way he can win this. I won't accept anything less than 100% of Pirate's original agreement when this bet was made. That includes interest to the hour of payout. So everyone should pile on the bets. And if you're a business partner or future business partner of Matthew's. I'd be watching this closely.

Fluttershy

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I can't believe you're refusing my bet even though my comment fueled the latest round of betting. How callous of you.

Why exactly are you refusing my bet when it's as good as anyone else's?

peasant

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Cryptopreneur

Crisis schedule. Cheesy

Come-from-Beyond

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Newbie

Quote from: MrTeal on September 06, 2012, 12:14:40 AM

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 12:05:38 AM

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

We are bored. We need someone to hack Bitcoinica or BFL to ship a supercomputing pair of loafers to give us a new scandal to focus on ad forget this whole nasty Pirate business.

BitFloor has been hacked. Just in time to keep us entertained. And I expect entertainment on 10th of September... We definitely need something like a schedule.

MrTeal

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Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 12:05:38 AM

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

We are bored. We need someone to hack Bitcoinica or BFL to ship a supercomputing pair of loafers to give us a new scandal to focus on ad forget this whole nasty Pirate business.

MrTeal

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Quote from: JoelKatz on September 06, 2012, 12:01:02 AM

Quote from: MrTeal on September 05, 2012, 11:47:27 PM

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

I don't think so. I'm not sure, but I don't think so. Here's why:

For Matthew to win his bet, Pirate has to settle with everyone. For people who insist on 100% payout, the only way Pirate can settle is to pay 100%. Because some people think Matthew knows something they don't, they're much less likely to take a low settlement. This is especially true for people who took Matthew's bet to hedge. If they take a partial payment, they may lose their bet with Matthew. If they refuse, they are guaranteed either 100% payment or they'll win their bet.

So Matthew's bet almost certainly made it much more expensive for Pirate to settle. I suspect by at least 40,000 BTC. (Weirdly, this means that if Matthew loses, most of that money may wind up indirectly going to Pirate since Pirate benefits from the higher value of his debt because he can sell it for more.)

Oh, I don't think that's what Matthew is doing either, it was more just a commentary on how massive the size of this bet has become. As the date comes closer and closer, it's possibly people will continue to toss bets that they think are sure things. It could easily double in size towards the end.

That being said, apart from the fact that it could make it more expensive for Pirate to buy back his debt it would become almost an impossible logistical nightmare to contact all his debtors in a couple day span and negotiate a lower settlement. Those he can't contact he'd have to pay out in full plus interest in order to win the bet. It would only be feasible if Pirate was running an incredibly profitable business that just spiraled out of control, still has a significant percentage of what he owes and wants to walk away with cash in the bank without getting sued or arrested.

There's no reason to think that Matthew is colluding with Pirate though, other than how insane it seems to continue taking bets at this point if that's not the case.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 12:05:38 AM

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

Not much point, already well researched. Here's a particularly boring paper if you're not really into that sort of thing:

http://jeb.biologists.org/content/192/1/95.full.pdf

Matthew N. Wright

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I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

JoelKatz

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Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: MrTeal on September 05, 2012, 11:47:27 PM

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

I don't think so. I'm not sure, but I don't think so. Here's why:

For Matthew to win his bet, Pirate has to settle with everyone. For people who insist on 100% payout, the only way Pirate can settle is to pay 100%. Because some people think Matthew knows something they don't, they're much less likely to take a low settlement. This is especially true for people who took Matthew's bet to hedge. If they take a partial payment, they may lose their bet with Matthew. If they refuse, they are guaranteed either 100% payment or they'll win their bet.

So Matthew's bet almost certainly made it much more expensive for Pirate to settle. I suspect by at least 40,000 BTC. (Weirdly, this means that if Matthew loses, most of that money may wind up indirectly going to Pirate since Pirate benefits from the higher value of his debt because he can sell it for more.)

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: MrTeal on September 05, 2012, 11:47:27 PM

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

Waiting for yjacket's response .....

Quote from: yjacket on September 04, 2012, 10:57:22 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on September 04, 2012, 10:27:04 PM

I wonder if, at this point, it would be cheaper for Matthew to pay all of Pirate's debt himself than pay out the bet.

Are you retarded? Pirate's liabilities are around 500k bitcoins if you believe him. Remember, its easier to imagine making 7% on 10000 bitcoins than 100000.

MrTeal

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42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

Minor

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Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on September 05, 2012, 12:26:25 AM

Cute.
Did you that by editing your post after the fact or by posting at just the right time with a manually crafted quote string?
I did that once (well timed manually crafted quote), but nobody noticed Embarrassed

: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1151688

Anyways, is the betting closed yet?
I made a wager a few days ago, but you never accepted nor rejected it:

Quote from: Minor on August 30, 2012, 02:08:51 AM

I know the bet is officially closed and I don't have the required number of posts, but hey, stranger things have happened:

Code:

5BTC
1JpstgtL3Guoa9WVjpT7YA3r9QfAaqSyyS
"What's 5BTC compared to the sum total of this bet?"

Crypt_Current

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Shame on everything; regret nothing.

woops, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c&pli=1#gid=0, nevermind

Crypt_Current

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Shame on everything; regret nothing.

Whoa, is this thing still going on? I've been in sort of a drugged out haze (I'm sure YOU can understand THAT, Matt, you big drug-head you!) I wanna do 10 BTC; tell me how because I'm lazy. Please.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Chang Hum on September 05, 2012, 03:22:26 PM

Quote from: evolve on September 05, 2012, 03:03:31 PM

Ive been here since before the SA invasion, so no....I did get an account there around the cosbyhack, though (and was promptly banned).

I am kind of a dick, but that has nothing to do with SA.

I'm not the biggest fan of the fuckers mate, but it's not very PC to be so openly racist about SA's

S.A. != South Africa, if that's what you were thinking.

Topic: Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) - page 46. (Read 104472 times)