Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) - page 61.

Ente

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Quote from: bg002h on August 29, 2012, 12:05:29 PM

There is a reason Matthew didn't accept deposits for the wager...and offered a non-monetary penalty for those who didn't pay...

I think he is teaching us a lesson in greed and stupidity...a lesson sorely needed in this community...it would make a great Bitcoin magazine article as a follow up to the article on the pirate scandal.

Yep. I couldn't come up with any other hypothesis which would make more sense..
But then, I would prefer him to get 10 to 30k BTC out of this to finance some crazy stuff :-)

Ente

bg002h

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I outlived my lifetime membership:)

There is a reason Matthew didn't accept deposits for the wager...and offered a non-monetary penalty for those who didn't pay...

I think he is teaching us a lesson in greed and stupidity...a lesson sorely needed in this community...it would make a great Bitcoin magazine article as a follow up to the article on the pirate scandal.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: Ente on August 29, 2012, 11:50:58 AM

Quote from: bbit on August 29, 2012, 11:34:34 AM

My guess is Matthew is going to use his winnings to help pirate pay back his investors

I think you messed up the order in which the things will happen.. ;-)

Ente

Quote from: organofcorti on August 29, 2012, 09:42:13 AM

Matthew's researches into quantum crypto accidentally led to the discovery of alternate universes. He will simply retire to one of the universes in which Pirate will return all the coins.

I think the remarkable thing here is no so much the discovery of and access to alternate universes, but that he actually managed to find one in which Pirate will pay up. I do so hope it's the universe we call home.

If Matthew is able to travel to an alternate universe, he is for sure able to travel to the past or to the future. So order doesn't really matter. Wink

DigitalHermit

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Thank you! Thank you! ...

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on August 29, 2012, 09:22:34 AM

Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 29, 2012, 09:20:36 AM

Quote from: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 29, 2012, 08:32:18 AM

So Matthew's subsequent doubling down now guarantees that things will end very badly for him.

Either:

1. he loses the bet, and will be forever remembered as the obstinate idiot who doubled down and lost 30KBTC in the face of an explicit confession. No one will ever again respect him, or trust his judgement on any business matters.
2. Pirate pays, he miraculously wins the bet, in which case he will forever be suspected as a crook who had inside information.
3. he welches on the bet through a technicality or pretending it was a joke, in which case he will be forever known as someone whose word cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

4. Matthew loses the bet, pays 100%, and will be remembered as a guy we can trust to bet against without any escrow.

5. Matthew wins the bet, gives the money back because he's awesome like that. Cool

6. Matthew loses the bet because Pirate doesn't pay back everyone by Sept. 9th, but then we find out that Matthew was Pirate all along and he pays out to everyone who won his bet (including many investors/lenders who had 'hedged' their Pirate exposure using this bet). All remaining investors who didn't hedge get paid back too anyway. Win! Jokes on us! Thanks Matthew/PirateAt40 - very funny!

Ente

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Quote from: bbit on August 29, 2012, 11:34:34 AM

My guess is Matthew is going to use his winnings to help pirate pay back his investors

I think you messed up the order in which the things will happen.. ;-)

Ente

TheKoziTwo

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I would like to increase my bet if possible?

50BTC
12QwJRirBBdYqc5WWjyCvUuiHmJMLSrHxv

bbit

legendary

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Bitcoin

My guess is Matthew is going to use his winnings to help pirate pay back his investors ........ first matthew has to get a whole bunch committed then will slowly leak some payments back to make it feel everyone is getting paid back and claim people lost the bet....my 2 cents....

LoupGaroux

sr. member

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http://www.irs.gov/compliance/article/0,,id=180171,00.html

At current US tax rates, assuming pirate is single and a US citizen, the reward for reporting this to the IRS, given that 100% of the gain from this activity is profit, the reward for turning his ass in would be $1,059,345.00 at today's Mt. Gox high exchange.

So, we know Matty is good up to 94,500 btc worth of bets. According to the google spreadsheet he still stands to make over $ 662,000 in net gain IF HE LOSES THE BET. If he wins, and Hell really does freeze over, he only makes $ 397,318.83. Either way, not a bad return for taking the piss on a bunch of anonymous loudmouths like this community.

And that dear friends, is what Machiavellian thinking is all about. Matty wants you to bet against him so that he wins more by losing more.

Matthew, I salute you! Well played.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: Vladimir on August 29, 2012, 10:09:54 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 29, 2012, 10:06:52 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin Oz on August 29, 2012, 09:43:56 AM

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

Liar. It would take at least 4.167 days (give or take some luck).

Theoretically it is possible to mine about 100 800 BTC in one second or less.

Oh yeah. Forgot about the difficulty lag.

Ok agenda for this morning:
1) get some coffee.
2) do some real work.

It is gonna be tough.

Vladimir

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-

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 29, 2012, 10:06:52 AM

Quote from: Bitcoin Oz on August 29, 2012, 09:43:56 AM

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

Liar. It would take at least 4.167 days (give or take some luck).

Theoretically it is possible to mine about 100 800 BTC in one second or less.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: Bitcoin Oz on August 29, 2012, 09:43:56 AM

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

Liar. It would take at least 4.167 days (give or take some luck).

On edit:
DUH. Forgot difficult won't adjust until the next 2016 block increment so it would be possible.

Bitcoin Oz

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Wat

Quote from: organofcorti on August 29, 2012, 09:42:13 AM

Matthew's researches into quantum crypto accidentally led to the discovery of alternate universes. He will simply retire to one of the universes in which Pirate will return all the coins.

I think the remarkable thing here is no so much the discovery of and access to alternate universes, but that he actually managed to find one in which Pirate will pay up. I do so hope it's the universe we call home.

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

organofcorti

donator

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Poor impulse control.

Matthew's researches into quantum crypto accidentally led to the discovery of alternate universes. He will simply retire to one of the universes in which Pirate will return all the coins.

I think the remarkable thing here is no so much the discovery of and access to alternate universes, but that he actually managed to find one in which Pirate will pay up. I do so hope it's the universe we call home.

Come-from-Beyond

legendary

Activity: 2142

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Newbie

Quote from: bitlane on August 29, 2012, 09:24:31 AM

Matthew.....what do you know ?

Connecting Matthew knows something and "Bitcoin Project will be making a major announcement in September" I have insane quess:

Satoshi will pop up and announce that Bitcoin was just a joke and 1 BTC will drop to 0.00001 USD, so Matthew could pay the bet with his pocket money...

bitlane

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I heart thebaron

Matthew.....what do you know ?

Matthew N. Wright

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Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet

Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 29, 2012, 09:20:36 AM

Quote from: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 29, 2012, 08:32:18 AM

So Matthew's subsequent doubling down now guarantees that things will end very badly for him.

Either:

1. he loses the bet, and will be forever remembered as the obstinate idiot who doubled down and lost 30KBTC in the face of an explicit confession. No one will ever again respect him, or trust his judgement on any business matters.
2. Pirate pays, he miraculously wins the bet, in which case he will forever be suspected as a crook who had inside information.
3. he welches on the bet through a technicality or pretending it was a joke, in which case he will be forever known as someone whose word cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

4. Matthew loses the bet, pays 100%, and will be remembered as a guy we can trust to bet against without any escrow.

5. Matthew wins the bet, gives the money back because he's awesome like that. Cool

Come-from-Beyond

legendary

Activity: 2142

Merit: 1009

Newbie

Quote from: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 29, 2012, 08:32:18 AM

So Matthew's subsequent doubling down now guarantees that things will end very badly for him.

Either:

1. he loses the bet, and will be forever remembered as the obstinate idiot who doubled down and lost 30KBTC in the face of an explicit confession. No one will ever again respect him, or trust his judgement on any business matters.
2. Pirate pays, he miraculously wins the bet, in which case he will forever be suspected as a crook who had inside information.
3. he welches on the bet through a technicality or pretending it was a joke, in which case he will be forever known as someone whose word cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

4. Matthew loses the bet, pays 100%, and will be remembered as a guy we can trust to bet against without any escrow.

Grinder

legendary

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Quote from: Ente on August 29, 2012, 08:18:59 AM

Seems like people already learn from Matthew calling them out? And are more careful before shouting 'scam', "I hav proov" and 'I bet'.

If the lesson you've learned from this is not to warn about suspected scams I'll hereby counterweight it. I believe that this bet is in one way or another a scam, Pirate has been running a scam, and most of the offers in Lending and Securities are probably scams. I'm also not lacking enough in self esteem to care if you think the fact that I'm not getting fooled into bets where the counterpart decides the rules (even coming up with specifics after the betting has started) makes my opinion worthless.

Bitcoin Oz

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Wat

Whiteknighting is expensive.

Matthew N. Wright

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Quote from: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 29, 2012, 08:32:18 AM

Originally, I disagreed with Matthew's methods, but somewhat sympathized with the original motivation he presented.

However, as of yesterday, circumstances have clearly changed, given the Pirate default statement.

So Matthew's subsequent doubling down now guarantees that things will end very badly for him.

Either:

1. he loses the bet, and will be forever remembered as the obstinate idiot who doubled down and lost 30KBTC in the face of an explicit confession. No one will ever again respect him, or trust his judgement on any business matters.
2. Pirate pays, he miraculously wins the bet, in which case he will forever be suspected as a crook who had inside information.
3. he welches on the bet through a technicality or pretending it was a joke, in which case he will be forever known as someone whose word cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

Matthew, it's good to have courage and strong beliefs. But when new concrete information is brought to light, a wise man will reassess the validity of those beliefs before digging himself a deeper hole. There is no dishonor in admitting a mistake and engaging reverse. In fact, quite the opposite.

Isn't it beautiful? And all from a community of the "new currency" free from "evil" enemy government oppression! Roll Eyes

With a community like ours, who needs enemies!

There are more points to be made, but I'll make them around the 9th. Thanks for your kind words mate.

Topic: Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official) - page 61. (Read 104454 times)