I found this quote most meaningful: "I own some myself, and have adopted the wise words of Wences Casares, one of the apostles of bitcoin: own less than 1 percent of your net worth, don’t buy and sell bitcoin, and don’t do anything with it for at least five years, at which point it will either be worth a lot more or absolutely nothing. I have yet to use bitcoin for a transaction, and wouldn’t know where to do so. That alone says something about where we are in its evolution."
That's interesting Alan because I hovered over that quote for a while too. I hadn't heard about Wences or his quote when I wrote:
"By that I mean you don't need to buy a whole coin even, to do well out of a runaway success. So I've been thinking about how hard it would be to create a small portfolio for $100 by buying just $10 worth of the ten most likely to succeed cryptocurrencies. If nine went nowhere, and one only gained ten times it's value, you're safe. But if just one of them takes off and gains 100–1000 times it's value, you'll have done better than any other investment opportunity I can think of."
But I never had any insight into how long that portfolio should be left to sit. Wences' recommendation seems rather short to me, at 5 years. I've only rolled out major tech upgrades within a government environment, so my sense of how long things take is certainly skewed. But I think five years is about the minimum for getting a ground breaking technology, that contributes real value, off the ground. But maybe the activity in this space is so volatile, that 5 years could have become an overestimate.
My previous thoughts about a $100 investment portfolio also relate to what you've mentioned regarding the SEC compliant ICO. I've never supported the idea that we need the government to absorb the role of 'parent' after we've grown up, protecting us from our own bad decisions. In fact I believe it is the role of democracy to do the opposite. Once we grow up we should protect the government from making bad decisions. So I don't like the idea of legislation determining who can invest in securities or ICOs and who is banned from the opportunity.
I also agree with you that this space requires a different body of knowledge, and that the rich are not necessarily the most informed. What I do believe about the rich, is that they have the most capacity to lose without getting into a situation where they depend on society to support them. But whether you're rich or not, I certainly agree with the advice that in cryptocurrency, only invest what you can afford to lose.
And as for the Filecoin ICO, by Protocol Lab, I would run away because it fails one of your basic tests. Is it bringing something new, and necessary to the market which is hard to duplicate? No. Storj started three years ago, has a working product and is preparing to migrate from bitcoin the etherium this year. Kim Dotcom is re-inventing MegaUpload to do the same thing with bit cache. And when the function benefits from mass adoption and people don't want to run multiple storage apps, there can only be a limited number of successful players in the market. For an approximation of this, I'd compare the market share of the top four centralised could storage providers.
Usage Of Cloud Storage 2017
Platform | Market Share |
Dropbox | 77% |
Google Drive | 17.2% |
OneDrive | 5.1% |
Box | 0.8% |