[...]
So gold and crypto have:
1. A subjective value based on culture and rarity, based on their intrinsic use-case value.
2. A medium of exchange value as currency on top in surplus to 1,
3. A speculative value based on future predicted value that is rooted in predictions on 1 and 2.
[...]
So, if there are 100 goods in the economy:
The chance you'll find what you want in a single attempt: 1 / 1002 - 100 = 0.0001%
The mean number of attempts until you find what you need: 1002 - 100 = 9900
Now, back to the search cost component... if "a" is the amount of time that it takes you to find what you want (let's say 1 hour), so a = 1, then the equation is:
a(J2 - J) = 1(1002 - 100) = 9900 hours...
I really like how you enumerated the value aspects of an item used for a medium of exchange. It made discussing it further much simpler.
As for your bartering example, for the purposes of this discussion it was fine, but it did make it look completely unworkable unless you were the fishing tribe trading fish with the banana tribe and nothing else. Feel free to re-post the formula where there is a society of 100 people. There are 100 item types. Each person has 10 item types to trade, and 10 desired item types. The 100 item types all sit on a bell curve of the number of people that possess one. The same bell curve is used for the number of people that desire one. And the time it takes to ask if any of my ten items have trade potential with any of your 10 items is 1 minute. We're all at the market on market day.
My guess is that this formula will get your transaction time below the 9,000 hours mark.
I can understand how your example incorporates feedback loops that amplify market activity. It also focuses attention on aspect (2) which DNotes has the most influence over. How simple is DNotes to trade for goods and services? How simple can it be in the future? What is the minimum achievable time to get there?
I think a good starting point to answer the 'ease of use' aspect of (2) is to list the known barriers, and then determine what is being done about breaking through them.
a) Mobile functionality.
--1 All offline trade is done outside of the house, so a mobile device capable of exchange is required.
--2 Mobile devices are battery dependent so software must use minimal power.
--3 Mobile devices have limited storage, so partial chain transactions must be possible.
--4 Data can be expensive via network, but cheap via WiFi, so data usage must be optimised to reduce cost.
b) Adoption rate.
--1 To trade DNotes for product or services, both parties must be able to give and accept them. This requires a level of user adoption.
c) Speed.
--1 Traders won't want to spend more than a few seconds confirming that the transaction has been successful.
d) Cost
--1 The customer, trader, or both, will have to accept a minimal transaction cost, or in some other way contribute to the network that maintains the service and does the work.
--2 People are happy to pay a fee or percentage for convenience and security. This value proposition will influence adoption and usage rates.
e) Visibility - clarity
--1 Seeing how much you've got and what you've spent needs to be as simple as glancing into a purse.
f) Privacy
--1 Many people don't care if you can see that they bought bread. But just as many have personal lives where their purchase history, or just the shops they frequent, can be a cause of embarrassment.
g) Confidence
--1 Knowing that the money in your wallet will be worth something when you wake up tomorrow.
--2 Knowing that your money won't disappear if a company, server, or software crashes.
--3 Knowing that the only way to get your money is with your consent.
h) Web services and plug-ins
--1 How easy it is for website developers to implement a payment portal.
--2 How easy it is for hosted users like those on Wordpress to implement a payment portal.
i) I'm sure I have not thought of everything.
Having a comprehensive answer to these questions, including a projected timeline would be really interesting. But I also understand DNotes' policy of doing, not hyping and claiming.