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Topic: Do bookmakers influence the outcome of a match? - page 5. (Read 1138 times)

legendary
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In some cases it might be plausible especially on lower ranked sports where the players don't make much money.  But in the bigger sports I dont think it's all that much doable.  The books are fine they will make their share of money from people chasing loses or overheating because they won.  It's probably not that big of an issue.
legendary
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I recently watched an interesting video where the author claimed that in many cases it is not that difficult to predict the outcome of a sports match, because bookmakers are interested in a certain outcome of the match and implicitly influence the outcome of this match. I will not publish a link to this and other similar videos here, so as not to engage in free advertising.
What is important is something else. In the video, the author claimed that modern bookmakers are so powerful that they are actually the source of players' salaries. Most of the games that are included in the bookmaker's line are not completely honest, although this is not customary to talk about. According to the author, the team as a whole is hinted at how they should play so that the team's funding continues. This mainly concerned football.
By the way, as the author claims, if we take teams from lower divisions that are subsidized by local budgets, then there too it is often easy to predict the outcome of a match. There are local teams that at certain times stop being financed by local municipalities (in poor countries) and the teams simply "dump" the match. After all, what is the point of playing for a victory for a professional team if it understands that the money for financing it was either not allocated or was sharply reduced?
And what do you think - does the bookmaker influence the outcome of sports matches?
Is this situation different for different sports? Is football unique in this sense?

Bookmakers don't need to rig anything in order to make money. Nor would they even bother getting involved in anything illegal when they can make mountains of money by doing things legally. There will be rare exceptions to this rule, just like there are criminals in every walk of life, but there is no grand conspiracy the bookmakers have some sort of insider knowledge. No, they have public knowledge and historical information to go on, with vast banks of super computing power able to analyze statistics better than any individual person is likely able to pull together. With that information and even comparing against other bookmakers doing the same thing independently, they can formulate odds which will make them a profit - and gamblers flock to hand over their money thinking they know better.
legendary
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It's possible in smaller, more corrupt countries, but do you believe something like that can happen in the UFC for instance, or FIFA world cup. I wouldn't be surprised if in second league in Zimbabwe someone was pulling the strings, or in local town leagues, junior leagues and such, but if you're afraid of it don't bet on them, put money on the big boys NFL, NBA, FIFA, UFC, NHL... There's so many to choose from, you can be betting all day and never touch suspicious games.
legendary
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Definitely not, bookmakers has no way can influence the outcome of the match. Remember bookmakers are getting profit from the bets of people.  They have this algorithm that produce an odds that exceeds probabilities, with that they can earn a profit margin if the said odd probability exceeds 100%.  Bookmakers also have a system that can try to balance the bet of both side, if that happen then the bookmaker lessen the risk of paying out more than what they earn. And there are lots more.

With several options for the bookmaker to earn an income from matches, I do not think they have to resort to manipulating the game in order to have the result on their favor.  If there is someone manipulating the game is, it might be the people who are involved directly on the sports, like the athletes, coaches and more. 
hero member
Activity: 1120
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I recently watched an interesting video where the author claimed that in many cases it is not that difficult to predict the outcome of a sports match, because bookmakers are interested in a certain outcome of the match and implicitly influence the outcome of this match. I will not publish a link to this and other similar videos here, so as not to engage in free advertising.
What is important is something else. In the video, the author claimed that modern bookmakers are so powerful that they are actually the source of players' salaries. Most of the games that are included in the bookmaker's line are not completely honest, although this is not customary to talk about. According to the author, the team as a whole is hinted at how they should play so that the team's funding continues. This mainly concerned football.
By the way, as the author claims, if we take teams from lower divisions that are subsidized by local budgets, then there too it is often easy to predict the outcome of a match. There are local teams that at certain times stop being financed by local municipalities (in poor countries) and the teams simply "dump" the match. After all, what is the point of playing for a victory for a professional team if it understands that the money for financing it was either not allocated or was sharply reduced?
And what do you think - does the bookmaker influence the outcome of sports matches?
Is this situation different for different sports? Is football unique in this sense?
You made a lot of point here. I am not going to dismiss it because I have never heard of this once. This is my first time. But some questions that came up as I read this are if bookmakers are so powerful that they are able to influence the outcome of a football match, the would we say that it will most likely be bookmakers that are the most popular in a region where the clubs are based or are even sponsors of the club? Because it isn't possible for them to have a worldwide reach on all games played in the different championships. How about other bookmarkers? Gamblers don't patronize one bookmarker. Are these other bookmarkers also involved in this influencing?
hero member
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Edited out
I disagree with you the bolded statement. We all know that Manchester City is stronger than Chelsea which most people will bet on City winning and the bookers will give City the lower odds because it is clear that City has a higher chance of winning than losing. I don't see that as influencing of the match. As long as it is gambling that you are predicting the outcome of an event that has not taken place, you might lose or win and that is where the bookmakers make their funds because the game might turn out to be the opposite. Another thing is that gamblers are so greedy that they don't like betting on small odds. If you talk about casino games, I can understand that the casino algorithm influences the outcome of your bet.
Well since I said this just an example, I may likely be wrong for n my assumptions, so I accept your opinion also, but if you want to contribute based on my comment and to be on the topic as related to bookmakers influence on the outcome of football match then mentioning gambler greed is somewhat off topic to this discussion.

Since what we are talking about is bookies and not gamblers greed level or patterns of games selection following the odds, between let me ask you, do you know or ever hard the term, match fixing?
hero member
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The concept that bookmakers fix matches is ridiculous. They're no secret cabal dictating game outcomes. They're businessmen. They set data-driven odds. They study teams, players, and history to forecast the future. Its excellent business to have financial ties to teams and leagues. It doesnt mean they're in charge. Thinkers like that are looking for a conspiracy where none exists.

Lets discuss lower-division teams. They're struggling. Sometimes desperate people make desperate choices. People are like that. Its not the bookmakers' fault. It reflects the clubs' severe economic conditions. We should stop blaming and start seeing the big picture. Complex and unfair, sports are an ecology. That doesnt mean foul play. Nearly all athletes and officials are honest, industrious, and desire to win fairly. Lets credit them.
hero member
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I usually believe that bookmakers can influence the outcome of a football match, and that is why we have what is called games fixing, because at some point, those bookmakers are big resource point for some of the league and in prep match their may want to influence the outcome of those match based on the direction that most of the bets are going, take for example, when Manchester City and another weaker club like Chelsea are having a match, the bookies already know that most of the bets that will come in this regard will be in favor of Manchester City for a straight winning, so for sure their may likely want to influence the match outcome so as to cash out all the gamblers bets.

As long as long as there is an house edge on in house games, same will go with sport bets because there is no way the casino will survive with revenue generation without such an act.
I disagree with you the bolded statement. We all know that Manchester City is stronger than Chelsea which most people will bet on City winning and the bookers will give City the lower odds because it is clear that City has a higher chance of winning than losing. I don't see that as influencing of the match. As long as it is gambling that you are predicting the outcome of an event that has not taken place, you might lose or win and that is where the bookmakers make their funds because the game might turn out to be the opposite. Another thing is that gamblers are so greedy that they don't like betting on small odds. If you talk about casino games, I can understand that the casino algorithm influences the outcome of your bet.
hero member
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And what do you think - does the bookmaker influence the outcome of sports matches?
Is this situation different for different sports? Is football unique in this sense?
The big leagues are not influenced by betting sites.

I will not believe the author that bookmakers influences the outcome of a match because football is not gambling and every team and coach is fighting hard to see that they win the title at the end of the season for profit.
This can be true for big leagues like the English Premier League, La Liga and other big leagues but it is not true in some lower leagues that the outcome can be manipulated. They are manipulating the outcome of the match because of something connecting to betting.
Logically with a large enough amount of money in the big league of course it will not be allowed, justice will not be taken away by any amount of money from any bookie, because we know that they have a lot of money than bookies in the big league and big teams in a league.

Small leagues that are included in gambling are certainly a more easy target if they have a low level of justice, they will be easily influenced by money from bookmakers that make a match manipulated, the possibility of small leagues is greater to be influenced by bookmakers.
hero member
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I recently watched an interesting video where the author claimed that in many cases it is not that difficult to predict the outcome of a sports match, because bookmakers are interested in a certain outcome of the match and implicitly influence the outcome of this match. I will not publish a link to this and other similar videos here, so as not to engage in free advertising.
What is important is something else. In the video, the author claimed that modern bookmakers are so powerful that they are actually the source of players' salaries. Most of the games that are included in the bookmaker's line are not completely honest, although this is not customary to talk about. According to the author, the team as a whole is hinted at how they should play so that the team's funding continues. This mainly concerned football.
By the way, as the author claims, if we take teams from lower divisions that are subsidized by local budgets, then there too it is often easy to predict the outcome of a match. There are local teams that at certain times stop being financed by local municipalities (in poor countries) and the teams simply "dump" the match. After all, what is the point of playing for a victory for a professional team if it understands that the money for financing it was either not allocated or was sharply reduced?
And what do you think - does the bookmaker influence the outcome of sports matches?
Is this situation different for different sports? Is football unique in this sense?
I may see this happening on local leagues in which a local bookmaker had great influence within the community, but I do not see this being true when it comes to the most famous leagues around the world, and the reason for this is simple, such a conspiracy will need thousands of people being aware of what is happening, and in this age it is almost impossible to keep such secret for so long, and sooner or later someone will talk more than what they should and the conspiracy will become public knowledge, and since this has not happened, I can only assume it is not possible to do at all.
legendary
Activity: 1974
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They surely can. If they want for example a certain game to end like they want they have the meaning, resources and inside people to make this happen and no one can stop them, have you people not wondered if you check the results of the Serie A for example in the year 1990-1995 you can see that the amount of surprise results have been at a bare minimum where the strongest teams used to win always or at least 90% of their games. This is something does not happen anymore as we have to find a miracle for example if all the top major 5 leagues of soccer in Europe would show a weekend without a single surprise result, yesterday we had Real draw again and with the super star players they have they surely have the capability to beat a team like Las Palmas or whoever did they play yesterday. So bottom line yes and that is the reason surprise results happen every week now.
One of the most famous scandals in Serie A was Calciopoli which occurred in 2005-2006. I don't know whether the bookies are involved in this case or not, but what is certain is that match fixing really does exist. Match-fixing scandals are much easier to happen in a country's smaller leagues, but I think the same thing would be very difficult to happen in Europe's top leagues because of better oversight.

Of course it's not surprising that top European teams have been involved in such scandals, but I never know who financed it regardless of whether it was a bookmaker or an individual. Cases like this can involve one team, several players, or even the referee who officiates at the match.
legendary
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In the video, the author claimed that modern bookmakers are so powerful that they are actually the source of players' salaries. Most of the games that are included in the bookmaker's line are not completely honest, although this is not customary to talk about. According to the author, the team as a whole is hinted at how they should play so that the team's funding continues.

The way statement reads, bookmakers funding players salaries can lead to players getting blackmailed and have them play the way bookmakers want them to play, some may give in due to their financial positions and some due to greed.


In this case, the player may get the usual salary or a little more but the real beneficiaries will be the bookmakers because they know the outcome of the match beforehand and they will give odds according to that and manipulate this betting business to a greater extent. Also, it depends upon whom they influence because if the player is top-rated and is a star, he won't settle for anything less because he (the player) will have to perform below his ability to lose the game and it will impact his career too.

Also if this is known anytime in future that the player sold himself to the bookmaker, that will be the end of the career for him. You can get a lot of fame and money over time with good performances but only the greedy ones will risk this for quick money.
legendary
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I recently watched an interesting video where the author claimed that in many cases it is not that difficult to predict the outcome of a sports match, because bookmakers are interested in a certain outcome of the match and implicitly influence the outcome of this match.

That's made up. They influence it how? Why would they do it? Bookmakers make money regardless of the outcome. In fact, they make the most money when the total value of bets is the highest, so it's in their interest to look legit, attract the most people, make the cash pile up because they get % of that pile. If they get involved in shady business they get less people to trust them and earn less.

Bookmakers powerful? If they're so powerful why don't they bet themselves with unlimited cash. They can for instance invest their own bankroll if they know the match is fixed and earn 100 times more than they would in normal circumstances.
hero member
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In the video, the author claimed that modern bookmakers are so powerful that they are actually the source of players' salaries. Most of the games that are included in the bookmaker's line are not completely honest, although this is not customary to talk about. According to the author, the team as a whole is hinted at how they should play so that the team's funding continues.

The way statement reads, bookmakers funding players salaries can lead to players getting blackmailed and have them play the way bookmakers want them to play, some may give in due to their financial positions and some due to greed.
sr. member
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And what do you think - does the bookmaker influence the outcome of sports matches?
Is this situation different for different sports? Is football unique in this sense?

What I think is that the people saying this don't have any prove but they're just saying what they feel for major tournaments. Bookmakers can influence local Sunday league games that people don't care about and don't know anything that is happening over there. They can influence a collage game but not international tournaments that is being watched by many audiences. If something is fishy in a game, there are organizations incharge of investigating and when there's a team that is being influenced by a bookmarker, it'll be discovered. They have being uncovering players that are helping their friends and relatives to win hence finding teams that are doing so for the bookmarkers won't be challenging. Sportsbook and casino sponsoring clubs can't interfere with how their matches turn out too because they'll be caught.
hero member
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And what do you think - does the bookmaker influence the outcome of sports matches?
Is this situation different for different sports? Is football unique in this sense?
Nothing is impossible in this world that is ruled by greed and materialism. Although I have not had any experience with bookmakers influencing the outcome of games, I don't doubt the possibility of such happening. There have been cases of players and referees engaging in match-fixing, who knows if they were influenced by bookmakers? Major football leagues will be very difficult to influence since it will be expensive and difficult. These top leagues are highly regulated and such a crime can be dictated easily.

Sports that involve single participants like boxing, cycling, tennis, etc can be easily influenced by bookmakers, since it will be easy to influence a single sportsman. Football will be hard to influence because it involves a team and is under strict regulation. A football match that was influenced will be easily dictated.      
hero member
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I usually believe that bookmakers can influence the outcome of a football match, and that is why we have what is called games fixing, because at some point, those bookmakers are big resource point for some of the league and in prep match their may want to influence the outcome of those match based on the direction that most of the bets are going, take for example, when Manchester City and another weaker club like Chelsea are having a match, the bookies already know that most of the bets that will come in this regard will be in favor of Manchester City for a straight winning, so for sure their may likely want to influence the match outcome so as to cash out all the gamblers bets.

As long as long as there is an house edge on in house games, same will go with sport bets because there is no way the casino will survive with revenue generation without such an act.
sr. member
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If you think bookmakers can manipulate the results, regardless it's small or big league, it should be same because in big league like Premier League, more than 50% of shirt sponsors are from gambling. This mean gambling is really big for Premier League.

Personally, I don't believe bookmakers can influence to manipulate the results, they're just promoting their brands.

If they get caught, it will be disaster for them since it would ruin their reputation.


https://www.scoreandchange.com/overview-of-the-2024-2025-premier-league-sponsors/

Maybe the chance for this situation to happen is so low since for sure that their marketing deals with certain teams or in the league might be in trouble if they try to pull those manipulative techniques towards each team they are having a deal. And usually the common thing what we see from their participation on those leagues is they just want to market their brands. To many casino do this and so far I didn't hear any issue that book maker influence the result of the game since so far there's no one complaining towards this matter.

Lots of people maybe got curious about the possibilities especially they know that there's huge money involve on the deals they made from those team. But they need to understand that for sure manipulating the team is not included with every sponsorships deals they made.
legendary
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They surely can. If they want for example a certain game to end like they want they have the meaning, resources and inside people to make this happen and no one can stop them, have you people not wondered if you check the results of the Serie A for example in the year 1990-1995 you can see that the amount of surprise results have been at a bare minimum where the strongest teams used to win always or at least 90% of their games. This is something does not happen anymore as we have to find a miracle for example if all the top major 5 leagues of soccer in Europe would show a weekend without a single surprise result, yesterday we had Real draw again and with the super star players they have they surely have the capability to beat a team like Las Palmas or whoever did they play yesterday. So bottom line yes and that is the reason surprise results happen every week now.
legendary
Activity: 1820
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If you think bookmakers can manipulate the results, regardless it's small or big league, it should be same because in big league like Premier League, more than 50% of shirt sponsors are from gambling. This mean gambling is really big for Premier League.

Personally, I don't believe bookmakers can influence to manipulate the results, they're just promoting their brands.

If they get caught, it will be disaster for them since it would ruin their reputation.


https://www.scoreandchange.com/overview-of-the-2024-2025-premier-league-sponsors/
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