Does martingale really works? - page 17.

ranlo

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Quote from: CPULoyal on September 25, 2015, 11:28:25 PM

Quote from: BTCevo on September 25, 2015, 10:22:23 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on September 22, 2015, 03:05:12 PM

If martingale really worked & was 100% effective all of the time then there would be no casinos because they'd all be bankrupt. Sure it may work in patches & make the game slightly in your favour but there are no guaranteed strategies to beat casinos all of the time.

Just enjoy gambling, don't try & be too clever or you will lose everything.

If it is not working why there are so many people still using this as their strategy? I think artingale is useful but not in a long run, after you win some you should probably stop it for a while and later continue it or if you dont want you can start again tomorrow, it is better

Because it's through the winning bets that profit is made and that's what most people see. The strategy of doubling on losing it's a zero-sum tactic. When the roll is good, you recover only the lost bet. Many others had made a better analysis of it and even I said I used it, but my experience is that not works at all. Nevertheless, for me it's a fun coin toss that is exciting when you recover a huge losing zero bet.

It's not a zero-sum bet. It's always +1.

Lost 2, win 3 (+1)
Lost 3, win 4 (+1)

But you will lose everything before you double up your starting bankroll.

safari88

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when I use a martingale, it only works in the beginning and then if it is play too long always lose

Coef

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Quote from: BTCevo on September 25, 2015, 10:22:23 PM

If it is not working why there are so many people still using this as their strategy?

If you come to the conclusion that martingale works, well it would not be a valid argument. It is true that many people are using martingale, but it simply indicates that those people believe it works. It does not indicate the strategy is actually working or not.

For the same reason, a lot of people around the world use the service of psychic, fortune telling, horoscope, tarot carding reading, Chinese feng shui, etc when they have no idea what to do.

CPULoyal

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Quote from: BTCevo on September 25, 2015, 10:22:23 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on September 22, 2015, 03:05:12 PM

If martingale really worked & was 100% effective all of the time then there would be no casinos because they'd all be bankrupt. Sure it may work in patches & make the game slightly in your favour but there are no guaranteed strategies to beat casinos all of the time.

Just enjoy gambling, don't try & be too clever or you will lose everything.

If it is not working why there are so many people still using this as their strategy? I think artingale is useful but not in a long run, after you win some you should probably stop it for a while and later continue it or if you dont want you can start again tomorrow, it is better

Because it's through the winning bets that profit is made and that's what most people see. The strategy of doubling on losing it's a zero-sum tactic. When the roll is good, you recover only the lost bet. Many others had made a better analysis of it and even I said I used it, but my experience is that not works at all. Nevertheless, for me it's a fun coin toss that is exciting when you recover a huge losing zero bet.

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on September 22, 2015, 03:05:12 PM

If martingale really worked & was 100% effective all of the time then there would be no casinos because they'd all be bankrupt. Sure it may work in patches & make the game slightly in your favour but there are no guaranteed strategies to beat casinos all of the time.

Just enjoy gambling, don't try & be too clever or you will lose everything.

If it is not working why there are so many people still using this as their strategy? I think artingale is useful but not in a long run, after you win some you should probably stop it for a while and later continue it or if you dont want you can start again tomorrow, it is better

Erza

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on September 22, 2015, 03:05:12 PM

If martingale really worked & was 100% effective all of the time then there would be no casinos because they'd all be bankrupt.

Yes its true that martingale really work but most people dont have good balance to cover all the loss because it is 100% on loss. Casino will never bankrupt although which strategy you have, if you dont control your eager to win you will lose all of your balance.

CPULoyal

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I can attest that martingale doesn't work. Being the strategy is based in a exponential growing rate, only to recover from losing, there's no wallet that can endure such loses. A 27 losing streak is enough to evaporate 1 BTC and the probability that such a bad luck chain can happen is there.

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on September 22, 2015, 03:05:12 PM

If martingale really worked & was 100% effective all of the time then there would be no casinos because they'd all be bankrupt.

Martingale working 100% of the time wouldn't bankrupt casinos, it would just result in them having a "spikier" revenue stream with occasional large gains.

Quote

Sure it may work in patches & make the game slightly in your favour but there are no guaranteed strategies to beat casinos all of the time.

It doesn't make the game at all in your favor ever. That's not its purpose. The purpose is to change the odds so that your chance of losing is smaller. Used properly, progressive schemes can give you the smallest house edge possible for the odds of losing you choose, but there will still be a house edge.

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Tried it more than I can remember, still the same sad ending.

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If martingale really worked & was 100% effective all of the time then there would be no casinos because they'd all be bankrupt. Sure it may work in patches & make the game slightly in your favour but there are no guaranteed strategies to beat casinos all of the time.

Just enjoy gambling, don't try & be too clever or you will lose everything.

FanEagle

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Anything that is related to martingale is going to fail, no matter how you put it.
You must be very short term miracled for being successfull at that.

longbob72

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Quote from: sidhujag on September 21, 2015, 05:32:09 PM

I believe 23 losses in a row is your risk, and reward is 10 satoshi, 20 losses is your risk if you wish reward to be 100 satoshi.

Assuming 50/50 which its not because its usually something like 49/51 favouring dealer... the chances of losing 20 in a row on a coin flip:

1 in 2,097,152 (so ~ 1 in 2055208.96 million taking into account 2% dealer edge)..

In general, whatever the odds are of you getting bankrupt, are also the number of tries you need to make to double up. Therefore, at any point in time along the curve of getting through to fulfill every attempt you can go bankrupt, but you can ONLY double up if you complete the sequence 100%, therefore the negative expectancy and failing system.

thanks. I thought my chance of losing would be 1 in 5M or something. damn. Sad

also I didn't consider the number of tries I need to make to reach a certain amount of profit.

leex1528

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I think we all agree, that there is no great method to ever beat the casino. Your best odds of "doubling" your money are probably to YOLO and hope for the best.

That being said, Martingale does have a HIGH risk, LOW Reward that is pretty decent, but as several people pointed out on here, why would you have a HIGH risk, low reward, you want to gamble with a low risk, high reward method in general.

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Quote from: itod on September 22, 2015, 06:06:38 AM

Quote from: panjul07 on September 22, 2015, 05:37:54 AM

Risking 10btc just to do martingale start with 10satoshi would be crazy method.

There's nothing more crazy starting with 10 satoshi then starting with 1 BTC. Both strategies will eventually fail and drain the budget.

Yep, that is what i was going to respond to him, the only advantage with betting 1 btc is that is faster, way faster, the other way would take you days or weeks depending on the site and the betting speed, it was proven that a single martingale sequence had a little bit better odds aswell so that would be the best and just as fast

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Quote from: joksim299 on September 21, 2015, 02:56:50 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on September 21, 2015, 02:50:36 PM

Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

HEH meh

You are lucky, losing streak is just matter of time, you cannot avoid.

Sometimes you can if you know when to stop it anyway, you really need some luck to play a role too so it still not time problem though unless you play big base bet this will end up losing quickly

Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

It depends on how much percentage on loss too. Btw why are you using 10 satoshi when you got 10btc? Using all in with 1.02x is great, winning 1 time will earn you 0.2 already and the chances of winning is still high enough

Dennis7777

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Quote from: sidhujag on September 21, 2015, 05:32:09 PM

Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

I believe 23 losses in a row is your risk, and reward is 10 satoshi, 20 losses is your risk if you wish reward to be 100 satoshi.

Assuming 50/50 which its not because its usually something like 49/51 favouring dealer... the chances of losing 20 in a row on a coin flip:

1 in 2,097,152 (so ~ 1 in 2055208.96 million taking into account 2% dealer edge)..

In general, whatever the odds are of you getting bankrupt, are also the number of tries you need to make to double up. Therefore, at any point in time along the curve of getting through to fulfill every attempt you can go bankrupt, but you can ONLY double up if you complete the sequence 100%, therefore the negative expectancy and failing system.

Actually, if he uses a base bet of 10 satoshi and lose 23 bets in a row, he would only lose a total of 0.8388607 btc. With 10 btc, he should be busted with 26 losses in a row with a total loss of 6.7108863 btc. The conclusions of "martingale does not work" and "EV is negative" are valid though.

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Quote from: panjul07 on September 22, 2015, 05:37:54 AM

Risking 10btc just to do martingale start with 10satoshi would be crazy method.

There's nothing more crazy starting with 10 satoshi then starting with 1 BTC. Both strategies will eventually fail and drain the budget.

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Quote from: GannickusX on September 22, 2015, 04:15:15 AM

Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

The problem is that if you are using such low base bet, 10 satoshis, you would need to play around 20 million bets just to be able to get a 1 btc profit, Thats a huge amount of bets and it would take quite some time but the more bets you play the more chances you have to lose and you are already playing 20 million bets to get 1 btc, why not bet 1 btc at once, faster way of doing it.

absolutely agree and I dont think there is someone who want to do it. Risking 10btc just to do martingale start with 10satoshi would be crazy method.

GannickusX

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Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

The problem is that if you are using such low base bet, 10 satoshis, you would need to play around 20 million bets just to be able to get a 1 btc profit, Thats a huge amount of bets and it would take quite some time but the more bets you play the more chances you have to lose and you are already playing 20 million bets to get 1 btc, why not bet 1 btc at once, faster way of doing it.

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Contrary to popular belief, table limits are not designed to limit players from exploiting a martingale strategy. Instead, table limits exist to reduce the variance for the casino.

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