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Topic: Does martingale really works? - page 15. (Read 123304 times)

legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
January 28, 2016, 10:51:18 AM
long as I use the martingale method only works for a while and if it is too long it will inevitably lose.
yes lot of people said just exactly like that martiangle only working for short term gambling and we can not use this strategy repeatedly because if you use it for many times i'm pretty sure you will lost
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1046
January 28, 2016, 10:27:03 AM
long as I use the martingale method only works for a while and if it is too long it will inevitably lose.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
January 28, 2016, 10:10:15 AM
I think Martiangle is a good strategy, but you also have to remain cautious
if someone do martiangle and won i think he must stop it and do not be greedy because for some people this strategy does not working and mostly they has lost if did this
newbie
Activity: 51
Merit: 0
January 28, 2016, 08:23:10 AM
I think Martiangle is a good strategy, but you also have to remain cautious
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1002
December 05, 2015, 06:51:52 PM
But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
I too don't quite get the logic behind it ,It is always better to do one single max bet.
In fact there was a guy on Pd who use to make 10 BTC bet on 90% once in while and i have seen him winning 4-5 times.

No, it is not better and it has been proved that there are methods to increase your odds by 0.1% posted by dooglus:

''For an example of a better strategy, try:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5''

Is this have been proven? Because all I can see is just a math here. When you are trying to roll the result will be not the same as your calculation. Sometimes you can get directly win by 33% and most will lose around 2-5 times before you win so in the end you are still losing a lot before you can win some back. And there is house edge and it is variety in every gambling site

the calculation is correct. a lot of us have alrdy calculation there is many ways to increase the chance of betting to more than 49% but no matter what method u use, it is still less than 50% so that u will lose more than half of the time. yet, u cant use the % to judge whether u can win or loss with ur own bets cause overall it is just a reference.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1002
December 05, 2015, 06:47:27 PM
Yes, it works if you have a huge bankroll. And by huge, i'm saying 1:10000000. That much. You have to be covered for a HUGE losing streak. But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy
You will encounter a very long streak due to varience if you bet long enough. Someone had a 33 lose streak, look here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900. And it is definitely possible to go beyond that.

But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
It would depend if you're unlucky or not. People can lose in the first bet with 98% chance. Anyway:

This is bad luck. For this bet u need to have a lot of courage. And what is incredible that is just first bet.
33 lose streak is a lot for sure, but on different sites dices are from 0 to 99.99, somewhere u play from 0 to 10 000, on pocket dice u play from 2 to 12. I think martingale is good if u have time and good bank roll and in that case u can set base bet on 1 or 2 satoshis and put it on autobet somewhere. Well anyway I play that autobet and lost eveytime. I think we are talking about 10 btc bank roll and base bate 1 or 2 satoshis on 45 % to win. And then maybe, but only maybe it will not sell u.

i know u r trying to say it is almost impossible to loss if u have a huge bankroll and u start with very small bet. but that is where people make mistake. no matter how unlikely the chance it, it will still likely to happen in a very long run. so unless u run the autobet in a short time, it is quite safe u will walk away with some little profit, but if u r talking about the long run, u may end up lossing all the 10btc bankroll.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
December 05, 2015, 12:55:02 PM
Yes, it works if you have a huge bankroll. And by huge, i'm saying 1:10000000. That much. You have to be covered for a HUGE losing streak. But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy
You will encounter a very long streak due to varience if you bet long enough. Someone had a 33 lose streak, look here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900. And it is definitely possible to go beyond that.

But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
It would depend if you're unlucky or not. People can lose in the first bet with 98% chance. Anyway:

This is bad luck. For this bet u need to have a lot of courage. And what is incredible that is just first bet.
33 lose streak is a lot for sure, but on different sites dices are from 0 to 99.99, somewhere u play from 0 to 10 000, on pocket dice u play from 2 to 12. I think martingale is good if u have time and good bank roll and in that case u can set base bet on 1 or 2 satoshis and put it on autobet somewhere. Well anyway I play that autobet and lost eveytime. I think we are talking about 10 btc bank roll and base bate 1 or 2 satoshis on 45 % to win. And then maybe, but only maybe it will not sell u.

I am surprised people still post that screenshot. That was taken a few years ago when BTC was worth less. In either case it was still a significant amount and judging by his username, he didn't really care.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1008
December 05, 2015, 11:55:07 AM
But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
I too don't quite get the logic behind it ,It is always better to do one single max bet.
In fact there was a guy on Pd who use to make 10 BTC bet on 90% once in while and i have seen him winning 4-5 times.

No, it is not better and it has been proved that there are methods to increase your odds by 0.1% posted by dooglus:

''For an example of a better strategy, try:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5''

Is this have been proven? Because all I can see is just a math here. When you are trying to roll the result will be not the same as your calculation. Sometimes you can get directly win by 33% and most will lose around 2-5 times before you win so in the end you are still losing a lot before you can win some back. And there is house edge and it is variety in every gambling site
legendary
Activity: 3332
Merit: 1191
December 05, 2015, 10:36:06 AM
Yes, it works if you have a huge bankroll. And by huge, i'm saying 1:10000000. That much. You have to be covered for a HUGE losing streak. But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy
You will encounter a very long streak due to varience if you bet long enough. Someone had a 33 lose streak, look here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900. And it is definitely possible to go beyond that.

But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
It would depend if you're unlucky or not. People can lose in the first bet with 98% chance. Anyway:

This is bad luck. For this bet u need to have a lot of courage. And what is incredible that is just first bet.
33 lose streak is a lot for sure, but on different sites dices are from 0 to 99.99, somewhere u play from 0 to 10 000, on pocket dice u play from 2 to 12. I think martingale is good if u have time and good bank roll and in that case u can set base bet on 1 or 2 satoshis and put it on autobet somewhere. Well anyway I play that autobet and lost eveytime. I think we are talking about 10 btc bank roll and base bate 1 or 2 satoshis on 45 % to win. And then maybe, but only maybe it will not sell u.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1317
Get your game girl
December 05, 2015, 10:26:17 AM
Does not work ! That is a BS strategy by the gamblers to the gamblers for losing the money in the smart way possible .Basically casinos don't want to take a loss .They lure you with some stuff which will keep you attracted to the casinos .At the end of the day you're losing anyway .Best way is to just stop ,lock the account like other 2 days and start something fresh .
legendary
Activity: 3500
Merit: 1354
December 05, 2015, 10:17:10 AM
Well I ever tried few times using the martingale technique,

i tried to follow some guys that appear on youtube on how he earn bitcoin by putting autobet and left it for few hours

at first I keep winning but after around 1 hours when i come back to check, I am busted

then I tried again but this time i set my winning limit, it works for 2 times but in the end i lost all of my bitcoin

So in my opinion and experience it is difficult to win using martingale technique

Leaving your autobet without set your max lose will always make you lose all your coins. So its better to set both max win and max lose..at least you wont lose all your coin..but I would say its better to play manually especially when you use martingale.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1001
December 05, 2015, 09:01:22 AM
Well I ever tried few times using the martingale technique,

i tried to follow some guys that appear on youtube on how he earn bitcoin by putting autobet and left it for few hours

at first I keep winning but after around 1 hours when i come back to check, I am busted

then I tried again but this time i set my winning limit, it works for 2 times but in the end i lost all of my bitcoin

So in my opinion and experience it is difficult to win using martingale technique
hero member
Activity: 1064
Merit: 505
December 05, 2015, 08:47:53 AM
But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
I too don't quite get the logic behind it ,It is always better to do one single max bet.
In fact there was a guy on Pd who use to make 10 BTC bet on 90% once in while and i have seen him winning 4-5 times.

No, it is not better and it has been proved that there are methods to increase your odds by 0.1% posted by dooglus:

''For an example of a better strategy, try:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5''
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1001
December 05, 2015, 05:26:46 AM
But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
It would depend if you're unlucky or not. People can lose in the first bet with 98% chance. Anyway: -snip-

Sure you can lose a 90% or even a 98% bet in the very first try, but the chance for you to do martingale with a base bet of 1 satoshi and never encounter a long red streak for winning 1 btc (it is 10,000,000 times the base bet) is much lower than 90%.
BTW, that 7000 btc bet is NOT his first 98% bet. He started with only 1700 btc, and in a sense that person was indeed very lucky to be able to turn 1700 to 7000. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1npmaq/highroller_loses_800k_with_allin_bet_on_justdice/
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 4418
Crypto Swap Exchange
December 05, 2015, 05:21:14 AM
Yes, it works if you have a huge bankroll. And by huge, i'm saying 1:10000000. That much. You have to be covered for a HUGE losing streak. But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy
You will encounter a very long streak due to varience if you bet long enough. Someone had a 33 lose streak, look here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900. And it is definitely possible to go beyond that.

But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
It would depend if you're unlucky or not. People can lose in the first bet with 98% chance. Anyway:
sr. member
Activity: 410
Merit: 250
December 05, 2015, 05:06:23 AM
But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
I too don't quite get the logic behind it ,It is always better to do one single max bet.
In fact there was a guy on Pd who use to make 10 BTC bet on 90% once in while and i have seen him winning 4-5 times.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1001
December 05, 2015, 03:46:36 AM
But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

If you have 10 btc and want to make a bitcoin, you could simply make a x1.1 bet with all your bitcoin. It would take only a second (rather than a week), and has a success rate of 90% (much higher than the chance of not having one single long red streak for betting billions of bets).
hero member
Activity: 1316
Merit: 546
Monday Hit Me Every week
December 05, 2015, 03:15:18 AM
successful if you have a large capital, Martingale in the way I always use. but sometimes I change the strategy in the game is not just stare with these tricks.  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
December 05, 2015, 01:21:33 AM
Yes, it works if you have a huge bankroll. And by huge, i'm saying 1:10000000. That much. You have to be covered for a HUGE losing streak. But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

Nope! Cuz usually there's a limit to the bet or the max win... usually 1BTC. Which gives you space for only ~19 long rape trains. Edit: and I've seen red streaks as long as 30 games.
Anything over that will lose you 1 BTC because you can martingale to further. Yes, even if you're Satoshi, with a thousand bitcoins, thanks to the max bet/win cap.

Also, you can use https://jsfiddle.net/9rea8gv9/embedded/result/ to calculate all your martingaling maths. (Credit goes to @dexon in BustaBit)

Small nit on the bold part: The max win is different on sites, but is usually a lot higher than 1 btc. For example, the max win is 260 btc on PRC (recently rebranded as BetKing) and 153 btc on Bitdice. The argument is true btw, and the longest losing streak reported on x2 is 32 IIRC.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 501
Supermutated Virulent Microbial Strain
December 05, 2015, 01:06:15 AM
Yes, it works if you have a huge bankroll. And by huge, i'm saying 1:10000000. That much. You have to be covered for a HUGE losing streak. But if you have 10 bitcoin and a satoshi base bet, and you bet on let's say... fastdice for a week, you could make more than a bitcoin! Cheesy

Nope! Cuz usually there's a limit to the bet or the max win... usually 1BTC. Which gives you space for only ~19 long rape trains. Edit: and I've seen red streaks as long as 30 games.
Anything over that will lose you 1 BTC because you can martingale to further. Yes, even if you're Satoshi, with a thousand bitcoins, thanks to the max bet/win cap.

Also, you can use https://jsfiddle.net/9rea8gv9/embedded/result/ to calculate all your martingaling maths. (Credit goes to @dexon in BustaBit)
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