Does martingale really works? - page 18.

ranlo

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Quote from: sidhujag on September 21, 2015, 05:32:09 PM

Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

I believe 23 losses in a row is your risk, and reward is 10 satoshi, 20 losses is your risk if you wish reward to be 100 satoshi.

Assuming 50/50 which its not because its usually something like 49/51 favouring dealer... the chances of losing 20 in a row on a coin flip:

1 in 2,097,152 (so ~ 1 in 2055208.96 million taking into account 2% dealer edge)..

In general, whatever the odds are of you getting bankrupt, are also the number of tries you need to make to double up. Therefore, at any point in time along the curve of getting through to fulfill every attempt you can go bankrupt, but you can ONLY double up if you complete the sequence 100%, therefore the negative expectancy and failing system.

Actually, the number of wins you need is GREATER than the chance of loss. Even if your example, you say it has a ~1/2m chance. 2m*10=20m=0.2 BTC. He'd then need 50x that to get a double up, or 100m wins (100m*10=10 BTC). The chance of busting is therefore MUCH higher than doubling up.

sidhujag

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Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

I believe 23 losses in a row is your risk, and reward is 10 satoshi, 20 losses is your risk if you wish reward to be 100 satoshi.

Assuming 50/50 which its not because its usually something like 49/51 favouring dealer... the chances of losing 20 in a row on a coin flip:

1 in 2,097,152 (so ~ 1 in 2055208.96 million taking into account 2% dealer edge)..

In general, whatever the odds are of you getting bankrupt, are also the number of tries you need to make to double up. Therefore, at any point in time along the curve of getting through to fulfill every attempt you can go bankrupt, but you can ONLY double up if you complete the sequence 100%, therefore the negative expectancy and failing system.

sidhujag

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Quote from: joksim299 on September 21, 2015, 02:56:50 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on September 21, 2015, 02:50:36 PM

Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

HEH meh

You are lucky, losing streak is just matter of time, you cannot avoid.

im lucky anyways Wink

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Quote from: longbob72 on September 21, 2015, 03:59:49 PM

can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

Chance of losing them all probability in long term = %100
Chance of losing them all probability in time if you play constantly = less than 24 hours

longbob72

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can someone do some math for me?

let's say I have 10btc. what are the chance of me losing it all if I do a martingale with 10satoshi?

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Quote from: ranlo on September 21, 2015, 03:22:05 PM

Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

That's like buying a single lottery ticket, winning on the first time, and going around to tell everyone the lottery is the perfect way to earn money.

A very good comparison. Any strategy can be good if you're lucky but eventually this luck will run out.

ranlo

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Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

That's like buying a single lottery ticket, winning on the first time, and going around to tell everyone the lottery is the perfect way to earn money.

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Quote from: sidhujag on September 21, 2015, 02:50:36 PM

Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

HEH meh

You are lucky, losing streak is just matter of time, you cannot avoid.

sidhujag

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Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

HEH meh

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Whoever wants to see himself how quick can martingale drain funds can do it without much effort on PrimeDice.com, there's 200 satoshi faucet which is easily collected, and "automated betting" tab where you can martingale without using any bot, you can use 1 satoshi as base bet. As soon as you get busted you can get new 200 satoshies and try again. It's fun to see how quickly loosing strikes accumulate.

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Quote from: Laosai on September 21, 2015, 05:46:48 AM

so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

define works for me first. are you actually using martingale and your total profit is a positive number instead of being negative?
and more importantly how long have you been playing with this strategy. how many bets, and how much wagered?

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so far it works on me, don't know why it works on me though i know majority says it doesn't really work Cheesy

maybe im just lucky and good thing i know when to stop

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Quote from: BTCevo on September 21, 2015, 03:42:42 AM

Quote from: birdcat90 on September 18, 2015, 10:43:59 PM

btw guys..house of edge 1% mean we will always lose 1% from total bets right?

so if i roll for 100k bets then i will have 1000 rolls loss more than win roll right?

but sometimes its not that accurate...confuse here

It doesnt count like that. 1% of house edge mean that if you roll 2x multiply the chance is not 50% it will deduct 1% so you will start to roll around 49.xx and 51.xx so it depends on your luck too when it comes to roll

Rolls every time depends on luck and admin or site because many are fixing and taking money for some time as peoples understand this they drop to play on this site

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Quote from: birdcat90 on September 18, 2015, 10:43:59 PM

btw guys..house of edge 1% mean we will always lose 1% from total bets right?

so if i roll for 100k bets then i will have 1000 rolls loss more than win roll right?

but sometimes its not that accurate...confuse here

It doesnt count like that. 1% of house edge mean that if you roll 2x multiply the chance is not 50% it will deduct 1% so you will start to roll around 49.xx and 51.xx so it depends on your luck too when it comes to roll

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Quote from: Pursuer on September 21, 2015, 01:41:12 AM

if you play dice using a very large bankroll and also start your bet with the smallest amount you can have the highest possible chance, but when it comes to gambling there is always a chance of losing. as a result you can never be sure of winning at any time.

Large bankroll don't give guaranteed success on any dice site remember using martingale while playing on dice sites is like throwing money at road it always get busted with any bankroll or any base bet.

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Quote from: Pursuer on September 21, 2015, 01:41:12 AM

if you play dice using a very large bankroll and also start your bet with the smallest amount you can have the highest possible chance, but when it comes to gambling there is always a chance of losing. as a result you can never be sure of winning at any time.

Well thats actually not true, it doesnt matter with what amount you start betting and using martingale, if you use 1 satoshi base bet you will need to win more bets than starting with 10 satoshis base bet and in the end the odds end up being the same

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if you play dice using a very large bankroll and also start your bet with the smallest amount you can have the highest possible chance, but when it comes to gambling there is always a chance of losing. as a result you can never be sure of winning at any time.

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Martingale still works. But you need to play this strategy on a limited time on any dice game, any more time playing with this style will instantly get you loose your money.

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I think not strategy really works to always win
But we need luck to playing in gambling.
But try again and try again to find your strategy for get big profit
Good luck

ranlo

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Quote from: GannickusX on September 19, 2015, 04:44:16 AM

Quote from: birdcat90 on September 18, 2015, 10:43:59 PM

btw guys..house of edge 1% mean we will always lose 1% from total bets right?

so if i roll for 100k bets then i will have 1000 rolls loss more than win roll right?

but sometimes its not that accurate...confuse here

What do you mean? It cant always be totally 100% accurate, otherwise every 100 rolls you will always win once and that is not true, the more bets happen the closer it gets to 1% but it´s never going to be perfectly accurate

This. To take it further, anyone that's looking at statistics and probability won't make any claim as to how many you should win in x rolls. Generally speaking, it takes at LEAST 100 million tries to get near the "expected," but will still never be accurate.

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