✪ E-SPORTS PICKS : CSGO/LoL : 420 WINS - 69 LOSSES : MIDDLEMAN SERVICES - page 19.

CryForMeSky

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Activity: 210

Merit: 103

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 05:52:27 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 05:42:58 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 05:17:46 PM

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more? Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall? Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

Well we all start from somewhere ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First map bets are listed on nitrogensports, but not on lounge; all the games on lounge are for match victor. However, in this case, there was some misinformation stating that this FF v BF match was a best of 3 (bo3), when in reality the match is a bo1, where only 1 map is played out.

Dust 2 is the most iconic map in counter strike; it has been played to no end and most strats and tactics have been played out numerous times, and there are really no surprises that come to a seasoned player, causing this map to be more based on raw skill and aim over strategy and executions. This makes it easier for underdog teams, especially on a best of 1, to upset the favorite. However, I have placed a fairly large bet on this match assuming a bo3, putting me in a precarious situation. If BackFire are on point im basically fucked. Luckily I'll have a few hours to put some more thought into the matchup now. Doesn't help that I have litle info on both BackFire and Fenix

Also, Orbit look poised to take the match vs x6tence with a 9-6 lead on T side Inferno.

I only bet on Nitro, so I assume it wouldn't be smart to bet on the match line since if there is only one game in the match it'll prob get scratched.

Looks like BF is still listed as almost a 2:1 underdog, if you think that the map change evens up the match a little bit, I guess it would make sense to bet on them and take the odds. I also see there is a 3.5 line, so if you think the map switch means that it's very likely to be a very close match (from watching the last match I'm guessing all of them are first-to-16?), that bet might have some value.

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

I'd advise a small bet on BackFire, I believe the odds are a tad skewed from the misinformation and being a bo1 on d2, I'd put the match at a more 40-60 or 45-55 favoring Fenix.

also contemplating making a steam group so people may discuss this stuff and what not as this thread is picking up a bit. feedback appreciated.

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 05:42:58 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 05:17:46 PM

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more? Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall? Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

Well we all start from somewhere ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First map bets are listed on nitrogensports, but not on lounge; all the games on lounge are for match victor. However, in this case, there was some misinformation stating that this FF v BF match was a best of 3 (bo3), when in reality the match is a bo1, where only 1 map is played out.

Dust 2 is the most iconic map in counter strike; it has been played to no end and most strats and tactics have been played out numerous times, and there are really no surprises that come to a seasoned player, causing this map to be more based on raw skill and aim over strategy and executions. This makes it easier for underdog teams, especially on a best of 1, to upset the favorite. However, I have placed a fairly large bet on this match assuming a bo3, putting me in a precarious situation. If BackFire are on point im basically fucked. Luckily I'll have a few hours to put some more thought into the matchup now. Doesn't help that I have litle info on both BackFire and Fenix

Also, Orbit look poised to take the match vs x6tence with a 9-6 lead on T side Inferno.

CryForMeSky

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 103

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 05:17:46 PM

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more? Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall? Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:31:38 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 04:21:00 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:15:20 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 04:07:37 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:03:33 PM

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match. Never watched a CSGO match before. It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams. Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though. I'm asking about handicapping. For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253. Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time. I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

Well it looks like VP is crushing it, so good work.

Those calculations are needed to make profit long-term, because of the fact that on a lot of these heavy favorites you are laying big odds.

im aware that those calculations are necessary, but imo there are way too many variables that come into play that are completely unpredictable (ddos), and I do not have the time for that. even now I'm watching these games on my second monitor and reading a pdf of a textbook for an exam I have tomorrow.

also 12-3 CT half on nuke can be considered normal, the map is insanely CT sided. I wouldnt be surprised if Titan manage a small comeback, but I expect VP to take the match.

CryForMeSky

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 103

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 04:21:00 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:15:20 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 04:07:37 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:03:33 PM

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match. Never watched a CSGO match before. It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams. Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though. I'm asking about handicapping. For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253. Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time. I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

Well it looks like VP is crushing it, so good work.

Those calculations are needed to make profit long-term, because of the fact that on a lot of these heavy favorites you are laying big odds.

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:15:20 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 04:07:37 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:03:33 PM

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match. Never watched a CSGO match before. It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams. Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though. I'm asking about handicapping. For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253. Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time. I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

CryForMeSky

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 103

Quote from: michinzx on March 02, 2015, 04:07:37 PM

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:03:33 PM

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match. Never watched a CSGO match before. It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams. Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though. I'm asking about handicapping. For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253. Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time. I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: CryForMeSky on March 02, 2015, 04:03:33 PM

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match. Never watched a CSGO match before. It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams. Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

CryForMeSky

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 103

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match. Never watched a CSGO match before. It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams. Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

x6tence takes the match v Volgare, GPlay looks like they might upset dig.
virtus.plow also seem to be on point v navi atm, Orbit also looking strong on map 1 vs x6tence
this orbit v x6tence match is nuts, fuck studying watch counter strike

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: koshgel on February 22, 2015, 03:15:14 PM

Do you keep of a record of Wins/Losses and +/- Units?

loungestats does this for me now

michinzx

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Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: alani123 on March 01, 2015, 11:40:49 PM

Nitrogensports had an e-sports category? wow

I can't find CS:G there but I'd be super interested to know if there are other websites that accept bets for e-sport matches.

Theyre listed for a few hours before the matches actually start; I think CEVO and FACEIT matches are listed there, don't remember about ESEA matches. I would post bets from there on here too but lounge just lists a lot more games in comparison.

alani123

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Nitrogensports had an e-sports category? wow

I can't find CS:G there but I'd be super interested to know if there are other websites that accept bets for e-sport matches.

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

results:

feel like A51 could have taken it or made it insanely close if summit showed up

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: Yakamoto on March 01, 2015, 09:23:42 PM

Quote from: michinzx on March 01, 2015, 09:13:03 PM

Quote from: Yakamoto on March 01, 2015, 09:07:25 PM

Well, I've bet on a few games myself, but it's been something along the lines of +0.9 value, assuming that you're using CSGOLounge.

ESports is just too risky, since there are fewer regulations in place for activities such as throwing, and players can easily have off days with no warning what-so-ever.

For those of you who HAVE made a profit, however, I congratulate you, since a majority of people I see are losing their bets as opposed to winning. Keep it up!

its about making a substantial long term profit, not +value over a few games. ive garnered enough to buy a bs asiimov from just selling small returns. I take just about every factor from off days to ddos when making a decision for these games.

If you're able to do that, please, tell me how you find all that information, and what your decision process is. I've always been interested in betting skins, but I've been to nervous due to all the variables that are applicable.

And a bs Asiimov is very good to be honest. I think I've only ever pulled some stickers and a MW P250

wont disclose my decision process for free, and some of the information i take into consideration is gathered from from hltv (match history / rosters). the bulk of the information comes from the information i gather from watching countless games. seeing as how several people have pmed me asking for in-depth analysis or to disclose my decision making process i might set up some premium thing if enough people ask.

note: denial just took the game against liquid.

Yakamoto

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Quote from: michinzx on March 01, 2015, 09:13:03 PM

Quote from: Yakamoto on March 01, 2015, 09:07:25 PM

Well, I've bet on a few games myself, but it's been something along the lines of +0.9 value, assuming that you're using CSGOLounge.

ESports is just too risky, since there are fewer regulations in place for activities such as throwing, and players can easily have off days with no warning what-so-ever.

For those of you who HAVE made a profit, however, I congratulate you, since a majority of people I see are losing their bets as opposed to winning. Keep it up!

its about making a substantial long term profit, not +value over a few games. ive garnered enough to buy a bs asiimov from just selling small returns. I take just about every factor from off days to ddos when making a decision for these games.

If you're able to do that, please, tell me how you find all that information, and what your decision process is. I've always been interested in betting skins, but I've been to nervous due to all the variables that are applicable.

And a bs Asiimov is very good to be honest. I think I've only ever pulled some stickers and a MW P250

michinzx

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: Yakamoto on March 01, 2015, 09:07:25 PM

Well, I've bet on a few games myself, but it's been something along the lines of +0.9 value, assuming that you're using CSGOLounge.

ESports is just too risky, since there are fewer regulations in place for activities such as throwing, and players can easily have off days with no warning what-so-ever.

For those of you who HAVE made a profit, however, I congratulate you, since a majority of people I see are losing their bets as opposed to winning. Keep it up!

its about making a substantial long term profit, not +value over a few games. ive garnered enough to buy a bs asiimov from just selling small returns. I take just about every factor from off days to ddos when making a decision for these games.

Topic: ✪ E-SPORTS PICKS : CSGO/LoL : 420 WINS - 69 LOSSES : MIDDLEMAN SERVICES - page 19. (Read 26574 times)