Topic: Economic Devastation - page 135. (Read 504776 times)

You should but not to the same extent. And you shouldn't be reading just one source of news, either. Ukrainian news matches news from USA, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Bulgaria, Latvia, and others. Russian news only matches Russian.


Because my family is blacklisted since USSR days and I don't want to risk being turned away at the airport (most people who renounced their citizenship and emigrated in the 80's got on a list, and us more so because my grandfather, who left with us, was head of USSR's polytechnical institute, which is USSR's equivalent of DARPA). Because I'm gay and they can fine, detain, assault, or deport me. Because I am involved with bitcoin, and that is soon to be a criminal offense. And mostly because I don't need to. I talk to plenty of people in Russia, since I have friends living there, and my parents have many friends there too. We hear plenty about their life from them.



That's really difficult to accept after all the photos of Russian military hardware, Russian troops posing for pictures, and Russia admitting that they sent Russian military to "help" Ukrainian rebels. Especially since this exact same tactic was used by Russia in Georgia, Afghanistan, Cuba, and tons of other places they invaded over the past century.



This I agree with. But not when a minority makes that choice for a majority. And especially when that minority originally consisted of foreign agitators. How would you feel if your neighbors wanted to join North Korea, and started a war on your territory, destroying your property, and tried to force you to agree with them? That's not how you break off from a country. Besides, it didn't start with a few people wanting to break away. It started with Russia scaring the fuck out of everyone in eastern Ukraine with their lies about Ukrainian government being completely taken over by Nazis, and that a Nazi is guaranteed to win the presidency. So the entire premise that the war was started on was Russian lie, and was wrong.

and in ukrainian news you shouldnt? so you just take it as a gospel.. well in that case everybody 'knows' that ukrainian news agencies are blatantly lying and faking their reports to push through anti russian retoric. there are even youtube channels that daily proove accounts of lies on internet and tv. cant you see that they are under control of external enemy force? by the way some russian meadia outlets are also under control of the same entity, and they also lie but just for ukrainian news agencies to pick up as 'putin's propoganda' and evidence of russia being totalitarian. why dont you visit russia and see for yourself that its absolutely not what its being presented as. dont be victim of hate campaign. you have to accept that its ukrainians killing ukrainians there! but after whats been done to their lifes and what have taken place they refuse to associate themselves with ukraine. arrogant attitude like yours forced them to break off and claim independance. with ukrainian army bombing them even harder now they are reassured that they made a right choice. country is not a prison - once uniting strings are lost you cant keep people in it against their will.

It has. But the events Zerohedge is "resonating" are pretty much a rehash or the exact same thing Russia is reporting. Combine the fact that Russia has had almost a century of practicing lying in the media (and has been caught lying about things in just this last year), including about their military involvement in various places over the last century, their massive propaganda campaigns during and after soviet times, and what I and others there actually see happening in and around Ukraine, including lots of photographic evidence, and I am inclined to believe almost the opposite of whatever reports come out of Russia. Which, coincidentally, matches the reports coming out of the rest of the world's media. Everyone knows that when reading Russian news, you always have to read between the lines.

I ignored the last part of your statement because it was irrelevant?

I agree of course; and thus I am operating to some degree on faith supported by the Bayesian intersection of several datums noted below. He has a blog post within this year where he said they will try to open source it before he dies.

How many snake oil salesmen are selling timeshares to institutions for $5 to $100 million annually.

Here is the backdated to 1929 fit of the Global Watch aspect of his model.

Looks like he deserves to recoup his investment before open sourcing it, and to use those resources to do what he feels needs to be done to help the world. He has stated he has enough $ and would retire, except he owes this to his family and the world.

He goes into more unspecifics on his Artificial Intelligence at his Princeton Economics site.

I agree with Rassah's point that in isolation you can fit points such that numerous curves fit and you can cherry pick events ex post facto to fit to curve maxima and minima. However, what I've noted is specificity of predictions before the fact that have been correct, both those corroborated by others (even major publications such as Barron's) since 1980s and my own experience following him more closely since 2012.

Look at it internationally then you will see that Asia will bottom in 2020 and they will be the new financial center of the world by 2032.

Armstrong has 32,000 variables in his computer model. It tracks global metrics. You can't just cherry pick and expect to have a model.

Another proponent of Kondratieff wave cycles is Ian Gordon at longwavegroup.com. Below is a chart of his overlaying Kondratieff waves over some economic metrics including the S&P 500.



Overlaying the traditional Kondratieff wave over modern times predicts a crash into winter or economic slump starting in 2000 and bottoming out in 2020. Interesting enough this matches up to with the burst of the stock market bubble of 2000.
However, in 2000 we had the FED with the ability to dramatically and artificially alter the economy via  11 interest rate cuts and a $200 billion injection into the economy through open-market operations. This is felt by many to be responsible for the subsequent housing bubble. When the housing bubble burst the FED again rapidly lowered interest rates. However for the first time in history they essentially hit zero and ran out of room.



At this point the FED transitioned over to quantitative easing as an alternative way to artificially stimulate the economy. Note the abrupt increase in Monetary base that occurred as a result.




If Kondratieff wave analysis is correct then we are perhaps 14 years post due for a major downturn. In this scenario the FED has artificially delayed/postponed this downturn first via artificially low interest rates leading to the housing boom and more recently doubled down with QE leading to our current artificial stock market boom.

It seems probable that each intervention causes further disruption malinvestment and damage to the underlying economy.

have it ever come across to you that it might be resonating events rather correctly when covering russia/ukraine situation? ohh and you clearly avoided the last part of my previous statment.

thanks for all the info you have shared with us was interesting to read

Uh... what? No, I just meant that Zerohedge is typically antigovernment and nonconformist when it comes to news reports, rightfully pointing out that the government controlled media typically lies and that there is always more to the story, but in this case the media was reporting about an actual dictatorial warmongering power with actual control of the media, and Zerohedge went full retard when it again decided to be contrary to media reports, and starting to support those dictatorial warmongering power claims (or rather propaganda). It has actually been somewhat depressing seeing so many libertarians and anarchists assume that since the media lies, it is obviously lying about the Ukraine/Russia situation too, so obviously they should support Russia. It's like watching the EFF come out in full support of the NSA.

 zero hedge is one of the few sites out there with truth presented in most exposive form. with quite intelligent readers you can always be amused by sharp comments and unique kind of humor shared by very narrow group of people. those whose third eye is wide open can clearly understand the narrative.
see, as far as i know you are ukrainian living in american continent. most ukrainians that moved abroad after ww2 are the ukrainian national army (UPA) types who were suppressed by ussr even way after the war for all the war crimes they have commited (you might as well disagree with that but thats just your 'truth' - there is plenty of evidences out there to prove my statment). so when it comes to harvesting information about your country you have to rely on ukrainian msm to construct opinion. you dont live there and cant possibly see the whole picture even if your friends in kiev are convinced that ukraine is a sovereighn state right now. ether way you are unable to be a subject of this matter as it contradicts with your understanding of events.
there is a saying: правда глаза режет - truth irritating eyes

I used to be a fan of Zerohedge too, until they went "full retard" on the whole Russia/Ukraine thing  



One thing that immediately jumped out at me is the relatively short time period of the tests versus the large period of time between each wave. How do we know that this is an actual wave that has existed and will continue to exist for centuries, and not just random few points within a short period of time that happened to fit into a graph? After all, if I give you just 3 points on a line, you can fit a perfect sine wave to them, regardless that the points before and after those three could be completely off.

The attention deficit disorder problem is why it takes a 100 years for sheeple to wakeup, and then they can be fooled again with a new shell game.

If you don't read the linked articles in the OP, then you don't have a clue what the thread is about.

I don't get anything from clicks on my site (I own coolpage.com and am the author). I don't even track clicks any more. That site is basically dead.

Maybe OP is promoting his site and wants some clicks.

Why do we have to read some article to respond to this thread? Can't you summarize the article, state your thoughts on it and just provide the link as a source...how many ppl actually have interest in going to another site to read an article just to comment here?

basically the economic collapse can be overcome with some practical steps, among other things:
1. promoting micro business community, home industries and others
2. exporting more than importing, proudly use of domestic goods
3. saving on the use of appliances that use electricity and energy
4. more use of tools that use renewable energu
  possible to do things above, we can overcome the economic collapse ... 

+1 i believe this is why we have not even started the so called internet revolution.
but once it will kick off, there will be no returns.

whats really funny is that it took us, the general public more or less 100 years to realise the extent of this crime against humanity and fraud that our current banking system is. as soon as even few find out how this (or any other) system operates it stops working properly as everybody starts taking advantage of it reducing profits/power of those who invented it. i believe that this is thanks to internet and extremely good communication technologies that we are able to use. now. whatever new design these guys are gonna come up with in future (bretton woods 2 happened behind closed doors one month ago) it will definitely be much more complex and sophisticated. though for it to be prolonged they absolutely must reduce the ability for us to communicate as its getting out of order and masses become too clever having access to all the free information. the next stage has to be an attack on the internet or for it to be controlled and eventually contained. its highly questionable whether this is possible at all.

Thanks for your reply, OK I will take a closer look you have piqued my curiosity.  For me a scientific analysis is not just the clever analysis of measurements but that the measurements themselves need to be verifiable by the reader.  Silver can be assayed.  Physical units can be measured.  However "nations" are whatever the guys with the guns claim them to be, and "fiat" is whatever the counterfeiters claim it to be.  Hardly a good starting basis for a scientific treatise.  And when it comes to making spectral analyses, people are often too quick to jump to conclusions.  Sampling relics and background trends almost always dominate the features of a power spectrum.