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Topic: Economic Devastation - page 19. (Read 504813 times)

legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
August 12, 2016, 02:22:16 AM
Nice article on gold today in ZeroHedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-11/one-simple-reason-why-gold-can-still-jump-50

It touches on a number of concepts discussed in this thread including the limitations of passive capital. Overall it is quite bullish on gold. I agree with the overall analysis.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
August 02, 2016, 10:05:49 PM
...

I am beginning to think that the only way to escape from the claws of BIG .GOV is some kind of version of Going Galt.  Hiding your assets if/when it becomes necessary (part of the motivation of many here to get into BTC in the first place).

I concur that it is going to get more difficult in the medium-term to escape higher taxation, particularly for the Upper Middle Class and the lower ranks of the Upper Class.  The more I have looked at Peru for example (our "Plan B" country as that is where my wife has family and we have our business) looks less and less attractive as time goes by.

It may be that iamnotback's ideas of a Knowledge Age might be an escape, but I have not put in the time & effort to try to completely understand it, and I think it might not apply well to my own circumstances.

SOME kind of bad event, or series of them, is likely coming IMO.  I still believe in preparation and diversification.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
August 02, 2016, 04:01:55 PM
Quote
I have a suggestion for a 42% per annum fixed income investment by lending your USD at Bitfinex:

This exchange lost 1,500 BTC in a hack last year.
http://cointelegraph.com/news/breaking-bitfinex-hot-wallet-hacked-bitcoins-stolen

Interest rate is probably so high out of a concern the company is under capitalized.

I also saw this post a while ago about strange things that go on at that exchange.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444557

The combination is enough for me to stay far far away.
 

Sad news in bitcoinland today. My condolences to anyone who gets burned.

Here is another MatTheCat story about a possibly shady/dangerous exchange.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.15656643

As I stated in my response to Kraken, none of my other accounts have been compromised (ever). Only Kraken, which makes me think that the rat is to be found under the floorboards of Kraken itself.

"ipsa scientia potestas est" - Sir Francis Bacon
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK
July 29, 2016, 02:49:20 PM

Best solution or not I believe that Xester 'solution' is what we are going to see happen going forward. I think I wrote up-thread somewhere how I believe it will play out. Here it is.

The millionaires will be gone probably in 10 years, they will either become billionaires or become wiped out in the next crisises.

It's really not hard to become wiped out if all their portfolio is in worthless stocks, bonds and real estate. Not to mention if their banks and brokers become wiped out.

Say they got 10,000,000$ at 3 different brokers, it doesnt even matter what portfolio they have, if the brokers go bankrupt, it's all gone. The insurance doesnt cover shit, and the broker can do bail-in if they are bankrupt.

I just hope the millionaire class discovers bitcoin ASAP to save their wealth, we need them more than billionaires.

legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
July 29, 2016, 02:08:51 PM

The best solution to that is to establish corporate taxes like what our government did. That way there will be balance in the three sectors that have been mentioned.

But the problem arise when corporations don't  declare their income well but at least they pay tax.
No, that is the worst solution possible, the corporations will just move to another country. What you suggest will just escalate what I just described.

Taxes need to be lowered, for everyone. And regulations need to be reduced for everyone. This way the consumer can spend, and  small businesses could reappear.

Escalating this bullshit is just kicking the can down the road, you don't build a forest by cutting down big trees, but by letting small trees grow.

Best solution or not I believe that Xester 'solution' is what we are going to see happen going forward. I think I wrote up-thread somewhere how I believe it will play out. Here it is.


Government response to this is will not be to let the system collapse but instead to "put down more concrete". As earnings are eroded governments will simply move on a worldwide basis to supplement the incomes of the newly impoverished masses via redistribution and welfare programs. A small part of this redistribution will occur in the form of significantly higher taxes. However, the lions share will come from increased government debt.

As governments become insolvent they will find markets unwilling to service debt in their home currencies and will be forced to transition their debt to a supranational one (probably SDR's). This will be the only way to continue supportive handouts to dependent populations. Think Greece but on a global scale. Going forward this scenario would result not in immediate catastrophic collapse but rather a slow progressive grind with individual countries going into crisis at different times while being forced to surrender sovereignty.

I believe we are witnessing the gradual but inevitable death of nationalism and the modern nation state.


I expect that the rich will be increasingly unable to escape taxation going forward. The wealthy will be tracked and taxed while safe havens and tax shelters are increasingly shut down.
Millionaires will be hit hard and even the billionaires take a small hit. As national sovereignty is ceded there will increasingly be no place for them to go.

This will only stall potential collapse. Down the road we will find ourselves with a massive and inefficient global welfare state that is stagnate and in constant danger of failure. At this point humanity will desperately need a paradigm shift. I believe the knowledge age as outlined by Anonymint in the OP represents such a shift.

My expectation and hope is that the the current system will survive long enough for the knowledge age to really take off and simply grow us out of the morass. As more people transition themselves from the welfare state to the knowledge age the risk of collapse will decline as the overall size and cost of the welfare state declines to an insignificant portion of the economy.

The trend towards future population reduction is already well underway. It seems likely that further population reduction will occur spontaneously as a byproduct of the status quo.    
http://www.economist.com/news/21589151-crashing-fertility-will-transform-asian-family-baby-boom-bust



...

Wealth will increasingly seek to hide by moving into tax havens in other countries. It will also be increasingly hunted. Pressure applied in the name of shutting down tax havens will be one more tool to drive political consolidation and weaken the nation state. Those running from the tax man will increasingly be identified, caught and punished. Options for legal evasion like you mentioned above will be shut down or restricted to a even narrower elite.

Tax havens that survive will likely be rare and limited to select jurisdictions where citizenship is hard to obtain. These areas are likely to be funded by income taxes (there will likely be no escape for wage earners anywhere) In these havens citizens will likely be exempt from inheritance, capital gains, and wealth taxes. This will allow the billionaire class to safely run their interests from afar.

The lesser wealthy will be increasingly consumed via taxation in their home nations. The coming wave of socialism and public anger will drive most of them back into the ranks of government dependents. This will serve the purpose of sating public rage, destroying potential local opposition, and further undermining the economics of nation states thus increasing the dependence on debt that will soon be issued by bodies and governed by laws under the jurisdiction of those same tax havens.

Rather then spontaneous collapse. I believe the proper model is that of controlled demolition.

RealBitcoin I agree with your critiques of our current economic system. However, our current economic trajectory appears to me to be fixed something to be survived rather then changed.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK
July 29, 2016, 12:33:55 PM
Can anyone help me debate the 3 commies on the RBE thread, it seems like they are invulnerable to logic:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5373.2460
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK
July 29, 2016, 07:54:18 AM

The best solution to that is to establish corporate taxes like what our government did. That way there will be balance in the three sectors that have been mentioned.

But the problem arise when corporations don't  declare their income well but at least they pay tax.
No, that is the worst solution possible, the corporations will just move to another country. What you suggest will just escalate what I just described.

Taxes need to be lowered, for everyone. And regulations need to be reduced for everyone. This way the consumer can spend, and  small businesses could reappear.

Escalating this bullshit is just kicking the can down the road, you don't build a forest by cutting down big trees, but by letting small trees grow.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 544
July 29, 2016, 07:36:01 AM
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK
July 29, 2016, 07:06:35 AM
So that implies that large parts of the world are in debts already, it's just a matter of time before everything comes crashing down. God help us...

I was just reading someday that even the elites want to introduce this guaranteed minimal income or basic income crap. Because people are poorer and poorer....

It would sound appealing to the masses, but it's consequences could be devastating.



It is a very irrational economic system we live in, let me sum it up how it works:

1) You need a government to protect the rights and property of corporations
2) The corporations need consumers that would spend their money a to buy their products and services
3) The government needs taxes to function
4) Corporations dont pay taxes
5) All taxes are paid by the productive people (small & medium businesses + the working class)
6) Corporations monopolize the industries , with the help of preferential legislation,as they expand
7) A lot of people are left without jobs and their businesses ruined because of the corporate expansion, and need welfare
8] The government goes into debt to pay the welfare and public services so it increases taxes
9) The productive people are paying more and more taxes to fund the government
10) Because of the ever increasing taxes they spend less and less, the corporate revenue drops, small businesses go bankrupt
11) Corporations monopolize and consolidate more and more to save costs resulting from revenue loss
12) Real net wages shrink (adjusted for inflation), the average income of people drops, more and more people go into debt or end up in welfare
13) Go back to step 7) and repeat.




Thus everyone gets poorer and poorer, including the govts that are in huge debts , except the corporations but they will fall in the end as well.

Everything is falling apart....


It's the economics of the devil. This needs to change or humans go extinct before 2100!


We need real capitalism now.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Minter
July 29, 2016, 06:52:12 AM
So that implies that large parts of the world are in debts already, it's just a matter of time before everything comes crashing down. God help us...
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
July 28, 2016, 05:55:43 PM
Zen Buddhism has the idea of centralised balance of the self rather it being a postcard to god like a begging plea, that makes more sense to me

Back to economics, I ran some numbers on the U.S. CPI.  Nominally 1.51% since QE, if I reweight food, fuel, housing and medical to align with medium household income shares, it comes to 3.32%.

Therefore, if anyone tells you the SPX has reached a new high, relative to May 2015, keep in mind that 15 months later a real new high would be over 2223, which has not happened yet.

Yep absolutely, the powers that be are counting on the population underestimating inflation.   The stockmarket will likely keep up with new cash created but the growth over and above is more questionable, thats the evidence of previous booms mirroring large amounts of inflation.    The lesson should be to not hold onto fixed amounts of cash returns, if that is ever realised by the marketplace it means higher rates but we live in a strange world where alot of political influence and non capitalist incentives from China mean rates are not rising.

 The effective market interest rate in large parts of the world is negative even if its not outright stated like in Japan
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
July 25, 2016, 01:49:48 PM
The great crisis is near, in fact there is no free lunch.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
July 25, 2016, 01:44:54 PM
I am late to this conversation, but I can offer myself as a example in how religion helped me turn my life around.  Without going into details for now, I took a different path (action) at a bad place, later I found that I had misread Christianity all those years...  I tried again.  Prayer turned things around absolutely for me.

My life, no doubt and beyond question, is much better than before.  In my case, I had to "fix my life" (more correctly stated: allow Him to fix it).  I do not feel that I

It might take either fierce persistence/motivation or (in my case) a new way to look at things to have a similar success.

I am even later to the conversation, and I do believe that your life is better than it was before, but that does not change the fact that it is based on superstition.  If you don't mind that, OK.

Do you believe that the creator of the universe lounges around all day receiving transmissions from the minds of the faithful?  

Perhaps

http://old.explorefaith.org/neighbors/beliefs/nature_j.html
Quote from: Howard Greenstein
To hold that God is the Source and Sustainer of moral values is to insist upon an objective status for ethical ideals. They are not the impulsive fabrication of human minds, but are grounded in the very bedrock of creation. Moral laws have objective validity similar to the laws of physics. They are not our invention, but it is for us to discover them. Just as it would be foolish to defy the law of gravity and hope to escape its consequences, so is it perilous to presume that a human infant can grow to emotional maturity without ever being loved or cared for. In both cases the penalty for ignoring the law is a natural consequence of defying the given realities of the universe. The uniqueness of God in this context is the complex but delicate blend of both physical and spiritual reality in a single deity which accounts for the balance, harmony and order of nature within us and without.

Ethical monotheism is not just a way of talking about God. It is a way of understanding human experience; it is a way of organizing the world in which we live. It is a faith that attempts to explain what we do not know by beginning with what we do know. We do know our awareness of this world is rooted in a unity of our own senses. We do know that defiance of moral law invites a disaster as devastating as any contempt for the laws of physics or chemistry or biology. We know, in short, that we cannot fathom it all and that this world is ultimately grounded in mystery. And that singular ethical mystery is what we call God
legendary
Activity: 905
Merit: 1000
July 25, 2016, 12:28:48 PM
I argued that faith provides the best chance of success on this front.

C'mon faith and religion can be both bad and good.

I know personally a dozen people that pray everyday to Jesus to make their lives better, but never really do anything about it, only drink alcohol.

It's only thing to have positive attitude, and have this sort of religious support on your shoulders, but it's another thing to really fix your life independently even if you are in a bad situation.

In the Health and Religion thread I looked at the data on correlations between happiness and religion. Most of the benefit is associated with the highly religious. Being nominally or moderately religious had little benefit.

Praying for divine intervention to passively "make your life better" without actively changing anything is an obvious recipe for failure. Praying for improved self discipline to affect change or for insight into how to change is far more likely to be beneficial.

For the devout and observent religious individual the odds of ending up in a situation where it becomes necessary to "fix your life" is probably much lower.  




I am late to this conversation, but I can offer myself as a example in how religion helped me turn my life around.  Without going into details for now, I took a different path (action) at a bad place, later I found that I had misread Christianity all those years...  I tried again.  Prayer turned things around absolutely for me.

My life, no doubt and beyond question, is much better than before.  In my case, I had to "fix my life" (more correctly stated: allow Him to fix it).  I do not feel that I

It might take either fierce persistence/motivation or (in my case) a new way to look at things to have a similar success.

I am even later to the conversation, and I do believe that your life is better than it was before, but that does not change the fact that it is based on superstition.  If you don't mind that, OK.

Do you believe that the creator of the universe lounges around all day receiving transmissions from the minds of the faithful? 
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
July 25, 2016, 09:20:19 AM
There are many varieties of religious experience.  Cases where a person is well-schooled in scientific method and in various sciences later comes to embrace views contradictory to reductionist materialism are by no means unknown.  As the default ontology of physics shifts to one of reduction to quantum information, the embrace of theism or other transcendental models is likely to become more common, rather than less: A world of pure information is much more credibly the product of transcendent mind than one made of the 19th century's Newtonian deterministic atoms.

Back to economics, I ran some numbers on the U.S. CPI.  Nominally 1.51% since QE, if I reweight food, fuel, housing and medical to align with medium household income shares, it comes to 3.32%.

Therefore, if anyone tells you the SPX has reached a new high, relative to May 2015, keep in mind that 15 months later a real new high would be over 2223, which has not happened yet.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
July 25, 2016, 12:16:29 AM
I argued that faith provides the best chance of success on this front.

C'mon faith and religion can be both bad and good.

I know personally a dozen people that pray everyday to Jesus to make their lives better, but never really do anything about it, only drink alcohol.

It's only thing to have positive attitude, and have this sort of religious support on your shoulders, but it's another thing to really fix your life independently even if you are in a bad situation.

In the Health and Religion thread I looked at the data on correlations between happiness and religion. Most of the benefit is associated with the highly religious. Being nominally or moderately religious had little benefit.

Praying for divine intervention to passively "make your life better" without actively changing anything is an obvious recipe for failure. Praying for improved self discipline to affect change or for insight into how to change is far more likely to be beneficial.

For the devout and observent religious individual the odds of ending up in a situation where it becomes necessary to "fix your life" is probably much lower.  




I am late to this conversation, but I can offer myself as a example in how religion helped me turn my life around.  Without going into details for now, I took a different path (action) at a bad place, later I found that I had misread Christianity all those years...  I tried again.  Prayer turned things around absolutely for me.

My life, no doubt and beyond question, is much better than before.  In my case, I had to "fix my life" (more correctly stated: allow Him to fix it).  I do not feel that I

It might take either fierce persistence/motivation or (in my case) a new way to look at things to have a similar success.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK
July 24, 2016, 08:05:19 PM

If you find the consequences of the quoted definition to be absurd, perhaps you should clarify and/or adapt the definition, lest the dissonance overwhelm.

Rational thinking can be irrational, if it is applied outside of its domain.  More importantly, arational and irrational are distinct concepts.  An irrational line of thought is inconsistent with a valid rational line of thought.  In contrast, an arational line of thought is orthogonal to the variational dimensions of reason. 

For that matter, without clarification regarding the criteria of rationality, there will inevitably be possible inconsistent models of rationality.  The postivist cum formalist paradigm is typically treated as the ideal and asymptote of rationality, but there are uncountably many logics, and what is rational in one model may be irrational or arational in another. 


I'm defeated here, your philosophical skills are very good.

Did you considered that rationality is just a human construct derived from human arrogance (to say that humans arrogantly claim that they have figured out how the universe works), what makes rationality a universal truth?

The fact that we can build a working space shuttle because we figured out that 2+2=4, that doesn't mean that rationality from the human perspective is infallible.
legendary
Activity: 905
Merit: 1000
July 24, 2016, 07:48:05 PM
Plants are not vegetarians.  They will eat it all.

sr. member
Activity: 370
Merit: 250
July 24, 2016, 07:43:25 PM

In the Biblical story of Adam and Eve Our ancestors are warned not to eat of the fruit of the “Etz Hadaath,” the “Tree of Knowledge” for as long as They did not eat of it, they were like angels who do only good. The fruit of the “Tree of Knowledge,” however, changed this.

People interpret this story in different ways but I tend to view it as instructive parable. A primitive species in a natural competitive equilibrium can be thought of as living in a garden. Breaching this equilibrium requires knowledge. Sometime around 70,000 years ago our ancient ancestors acquired the knowledge needed to explosively overcome the constraints that had previously kept our numbers and progress in check. We ceased living as a part of nature and began to dominate it.

This breakthrough led to the spread of humanity throughout the world and possibly made inevitable the later agricultural revolution. Having broken our natural constraints we are now compelled to continue our relentless climb up the tree of knowledge until we grow knowledgable enough to voluntarily establish new ones for ourselves.

my 2 cents...

I always thought that, that fruit is nothing else than meat. Humans turning carnivorous was an enabler.
Also it fits with the whole exile from paradise, Man stopped living in nature and lived off it.
Fire was a requirement for eating meat, so the serpent / prometheus myths align.
Better diet and hunting had a positive impact on man intellect.
Also it's a sin that we keep repeating, so Adam's sin was the original (first) not last, explains why we are still cut off from god ( a theological explanation if you like)
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