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Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! - page 47. (Read 16372 times)

legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Answering here to a post, because more in topic here.

I wonder if there are any other bitcoin ETPs or ETFs like BTCE that pose a reasonable alternarive to Grayscale. Specifically, one that is listed on a US exchange for US investors to buy. I can't seem to find any on Google.


The is a limited choice actually.

The situation in the US is pretty limited, this is particularly true for a private investor:



Being an accredited investors requires more available funds, (in the near future also an higher education) and implies a lesser contractual protection.
 

This explains (together with fiscal incentives) why Grayscale is able to maintain such a high premium to NAV: lack of competition.

In other part of the world the scenario is a little bit different, with more competition and products that are way cheaper:



I am very bullish on BTCE, passported and tradable in many European countries










legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
On a positive note: if the GBTC has amassed such a massive influx of money without proper institutional money, guess what might happen when/if the "real" institutions decide to invest!

where do you expect that proper institutional money to enter? i reckon with GBTC's ridiculous premium and 2% management fee, there are better options emerging. i know wilshire phoenix and fidelity are cooking up a bitcoin fund with a 0.9% expense ratio.

any idea what bakkt's custody fees are? all i can find are the original fact sheets that state there was a fee holiday through june 2020.

I didn't forget about your request, but it proved way more difficult to source this information than I originally tought. My men in Havana have , as usual, no clue about that, but I unleashed some new spy in the system. I will be back soon on this.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
On a positive note: if the GBTC has amassed such a massive influx of money without proper institutional money, guess what might happen when/if the "real" institutions decide to invest!

where do you expect that proper institutional money to enter? i reckon with GBTC's ridiculous premium and 2% management fee, there are better options emerging. i know wilshire phoenix and fidelity are cooking up a bitcoin fund with a 0.9% expense ratio.

any idea what bakkt's custody fees are? all i can find are the original fact sheets that state there was a fee holiday through june 2020.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Bloomberg published an interesting article about Graysale.
Nothing too new, but a couple of graphs are food for thoughts here.

First of all, a small recap of where we are, with ETP on bitcoin:



Of course GBTC is the name of the game, but other competitor are beginning to crowd the dance floor: particularly I am bullish on the BTCE ETP, being listed on a good number of European countries, thus being very widely reachable by a wide arena of investors.
Also We observed his pricing is quite consistent with the NAV. Here, my thread about this product: ETC Group to launch bitcoin ETP on Deutsche Boerse)

Still GBTC was able to hoover the vast majority of flows, he collected $ 1.6B in 2020 only, notwithstanding the very high premium of their shares over the NAV and their high management fees. To put this in perspective, this inflows is greater than 97% of every other ETF in the US.

Of course, as we have seen in the past posts, this is mainly due, in my opinion to the very favourable taxing deferral instrument status it sports.

The GBTC growth was phenomenal state, but in fact it is not "constant" they have burst in AUM, when they open their primary market share subscriptions. :

You can find a very similar graph in the OP's spreadsheet
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Apparently the TV ad played out:

Grayscale investments enjoys it’s best week ever after national ad blitz

Quote

Grayscale Investments had its best fundraising week in history following an ad blitz on a number of major television networks. According to the company’s CEO Barry Silbert, Grayscale netted $217 million in investments in the days following the campaign.

The firm’s Bitcoin Trust Fund was the biggest contributor to the success, adding  14,422.01411512 Bitcoin (BTC) at a value of $167,932,466, according to an SEC filing. The firm is currently holding 409,131 BTC, essentially removing it from circulation.

legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

Coinbase holds around 1 million coins, that's 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply. And technically, Satoshi also owns 1 million coins, so he's also the biggest player in Bitcoin ecosystem, though he's disqualified cause he's inactive now.

Still, holding 2% of supply is pretty big. I wonder if there's any entity that holds 2% of all gold in the world?

Easy answer to this.

Approximately all the gold mined in human history is around 200,000 tonnes, that could be concentrated ona 22 meters cube






Quote
Total above-ground stocks (end-2019): 197,576 tonnes
  • Jewellery: 92,947 tonnes, 47.0%
  • Private investment: 42,619 tonnes, 21.6%
  • Official Holdings: 33,919 tonnes, 17.2%
  • Other: 28,090 tonnes, 14.2%
  • Below ground reserves: 54,000 tonnes
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/above-ground-stocks

So central Banks are the Official Holding part, around 34,000 tonnes, andare for sure the most concentrated.

On the officially reported holdings ofGold Reserves chart, the US Treasury is stated holding around 8,000 Tons of GOLD: that would be around 4% of the total supply. Second place for Germany, with 3,800 Tons, or 1,7% o the total supply.
So the answer to your question is: "Yes, there is only one institution controlling more than 2% of the total Gold Supply: the US Government".


When speaking about "entities" I was actually referring to "financial instuments" controlling bitcoins, e.g. ETF's, ETP's , pension funds, or even listed companies, holding Bitcoins.


legendary
Activity: 2632
Merit: 1212
Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.
I found this a bit late but still very relevant and I wish more of the news items would be focusing on some of these factual items instead of just saying "Grayscale is big and institutional so it's good news for everyone" all the time.

And yes, we can say shit about their marketing all we want but they know how to do it for sure, they're targeting their audience, and it seems about right the way they're doing it.
legendary
Activity: 2954
Merit: 2145
As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

Coinbase holds around 1 million coins, that's 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply. And technically, Satoshi also owns 1 million coins, so he's also the biggest player in Bitcoin ecosystem, though he's disqualified cause he's inactive now.

Still, holding 2% of supply is pretty big. I wonder if there's any entity that holds 2% of all gold in the world?
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
We can talk shit about greyscale about the way they are treating their customers, but for sure thy know how to market their funds.

First, they released a new ad.



Very nice campaign, less impact than #dropgold, but still a it is goinf to be of a certain impact.
Special mention for the Ramones Sountrack, very cool.

Secondly they released a Digital Currency Toolkit for Financial Advisor:


Quote
In the Toolkit
When you download the Digital Currency Toolkit for Financial Advisors, you can expect to learn more about: 

  • The Bitcoin Investment Thesis
  • Qualities of Bitcoin
  • Portfolio Simulations With and Without Digital Currencies
  • Growing Mainstream Acceptance for Blockchain and Bitcoin
  • A Snapshot of the Average U.S. Bitcoin Investor
  • Millennial Appeal & The Next Generation of Investors
  • Investing in Bitcoin
  • Frequently Asked Questions

Quote
We know that digital currencies may not be a fit for everyone, but having an objective understanding of the asset class is increasingly important. By providing financial advisors with what they need to stay informed, you can have thoughtful conversations with your clients about digital currencies. As the market evolves, so will this page, as we are committed to providing you with the most up-to-date intelligence to best guide your clients.

Pity they didn't include my equivalent:
5 Resources to teach Average Joe about Bitcoin



legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Pretty impressive, of course saying that Grayscale and Square together bought 135% of mined bitcoins is naive, but gives the idea of the buying pressure it is going to hit BTC markets soon.

Can we then say with at least some certainty that it is Grayscale that is responsible for the price increase that occurs after halving? I somehow lived in the belief that they buy BTC through OTC and that it does not affect the price too much - is it possible that even the OTC market can not withstand such buying pressure, so we now see effects in the open market?

On the other hand, are there perhaps other similar funds that do the same as Grayscale, in the sense that they buy some significant quantities of BTC and perhaps are not so exposed in the media?

I'm not sure if I've already asked that question in another thread, but how long do you think Grayscale can put this kind of pressure on the BTC market, can we expect even higher percentages in Q3/Q4?

As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 5637
Blackjack.fun-Free Raffle-Join&Win $50🎲
Pretty impressive, of course saying that Grayscale and Square together bought 135% of mined bitcoins is naive, but gives the idea of the buying pressure it is going to hit BTC markets soon.

Can we then say with at least some certainty that it is Grayscale that is responsible for the price increase that occurs after halving? I somehow lived in the belief that they buy BTC through OTC and that it does not affect the price too much - is it possible that even the OTC market can not withstand such buying pressure, so we now see effects in the open market?

On the other hand, are there perhaps other similar funds that do the same as Grayscale, in the sense that they buy some significant quantities of BTC and perhaps are not so exposed in the media?

I'm not sure if I've already asked that question in another thread, but how long do you think Grayscale can put this kind of pressure on the BTC market, can we expect even higher percentages in Q3/Q4?
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I updated the spreadsheet with latest results from SQUARE:



Pretty impressive, of course saying that Grayscale and Square together bought 135% of mined bitcoins is naive, but gives the idea of the buying pressure it is going to hit BTC markets soon.




legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
<...>

I'm not sure If I enjoy the idea of a company that is clearly out for profit is slowly becoming a super whale, with the accompanig influence on the blockchains

Well, I might agree with you, but what is a better alternative? I believe in markets: profits are there to be made and someone must pick them up. If profits are too big, for sure new players will enter the market reducing those profits (thus benefiting the users). It's a long but inevitable self-regulating process.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 17
I wonder if they will continue like that, I mean I believe in BTC and ETH but what does that mean for the whole of the market? It´s a high stakes gamble they currently working on, if it ends up positive, it will be the profit of the decade if not, a lot of people will be seriously mad. Beside all that, I´m not sure if I enjoy they idea of a company that is clearly out for profit is slowly becoming a super whale, with the accompanig influence on the blockchains
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Grayscale just released their quarterly report.
You can download here.

Basically their Bitcoin Trust bough 54% of total new mined bitcoin in the last quarter. I updated the spreadsheet with relevant figures.

One passage it is worth reading in this respect:

Quote

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Inflows Exceeded Magnitude of Newly-Mined Bitcoin:
After Bitcoin’s halving in May, 2Q20 inflows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust surpassed the number of newly-mined Bitcoin over the same period. With so much inflow
to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust relative to newly-mined Bitcoin, there is a significant reduction in supply-side pressure, which may be a positive sign for Bitcoin price appreciation. However, these comparisons are simply to illustrate supply and demand in the market. They do not provide insight into the destination of any mined Bitcoin during the measured period.


Basically they said that after the halving the inflow surpassed the amount of newly mined Bitcoin, even if they were fair enough to recognise (it would be absurd otherwise) that the flows, as we have seen in this thread, wasn’t actually buying “new” bitcoins, rather than bitcoins from whales.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Interesting fact.
If you visit the Grayscale website you are warned that the issuance of shares in the primary market are currently closed:




If you go to the spreadshseet, you see that the number of outsanding shares has stopped growing since the 24th of June.



Reducing the supply of GBTC shares should help the premium to go up again.



I think it's too early to call if this has been successful, but I can tell you I don't like it: Grayscale is artificially trying to keep the premium elevated, in order to benefit insiders at the expenses of newly entrant.
I greatly prefer more "fair" instruments, like the ETP recently launched on Deutsche Boerse.

Grayscale halted the sale also in the ETH fund, where the premium has swinged even more vividly during the last weeks.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

Edit: I know it holds bitcoin unlikely traditional funds, but this is a very expensive product. In 10 years you will give them nearly 20% of your total investment (2% per year)

Long story short: competition.
Are you a private investor, willing to be a first class bitcoin citizen, investing time on how to securely manage your private key? Buy real Bitcoin.
Are you a private investor, willing to pay someone else to be sure no big mishap will happen to your funds?  Buy GrayScale shares (in the primary market, if possible).
Are you an institutional investor, who is obliged to comply to fiscal, regulatory, compliance rules? You HAVE to buy GrayScale shares (in the primary market, if possible).

As we saw in my last message another product allowing investors getting rid of the absurd 20% premium has just been launched.
In the coming months, or years, competitive pressure for sure will lead to a reduction of the management fee. Other issuers will join the arena, driving prices down. Bear in mind custody (one of the most prominent costs to be repaid by the 2%) is still absurdly dear , when compared to traditional asset finance.
 
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 5622
Non-custodial BTC Wallet
Interesting information.

I took a look at your post, didn't read all, because one thing really doesn't make any sense to me and made me completely lost my interest about it:
2% sponsor fee.

Why would someone pay 2% for a third party to hold their bitcoins? This is a ridiculously high fee for a passive fund that have 1 asset.

You can see passive funds like IWDA that have 0.2% fee and manage more than a thousand assets. Or EIMI  which holds nearly 3000 assets and just 0.18% sponsor's fee.

Edit: I know it holds bitcoin unlikely traditional funds, but this is a very expensive product. In 10 years you will give them nearly 20% of your total investment (2% per year)
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
On a side note: what happens when a ETC start strading with the share price  that is constantly within 1% of the NAV?
Hopefully one of such instruments has just launched.
Who's is a fund servicing? Rich AI using retail to cash in a free 20%, or the retail itself, willing to get exposire to bitcoin paying ony a fair fee?




newbie
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
Why is this trust so popular with 50k minimum amount?

Because they are buying A LOT of BTC.
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