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Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! - page 47. (Read 17106 times)

legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1422

This means grayscale is profiting, from management fees only, no risk, no question answered, roughly 1,200 BTC per year, or 24 BTC per calendar days.
I am open to be taken for a fool......but 1200/365=3.2876. Am I right? It can't be 24 btc per calendar day otherwise it should be 24*365=8760
So management fees profit per day is roughly 3.28BTC.
Huge and decent profit anyway, no questions asked.

You are absolutely right. I had to rush a bit the post and ended up forgetting to properly edit on the final version.
They hold 430,000 BTC, a management fee of 2% means 8,600 BTC per year, this equals to almost 24 BTC per calendar day!
Don't worry it always happens when we need to rush things. Wow! That's a lot of corn! 24 BTC per calendar day is unbelievable. We need to think some sort of service like that, I believe even 0.24 per day would work  Grin
Thanks for sharing your work
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

This means grayscale is profiting, from management fees only, no risk, no question answered, roughly 1,200 BTC per year, or 24 BTC per calendar days.
I am open to be taken for a fool......but 1200/365=3.2876. Am I right? It can't be 24 btc per calendar day otherwise it should be 24*365=8760
So management fees profit per day is roughly 3.28BTC.
Huge and decent profit anyway, no questions asked.

You are absolutely right. I had to rush a bit the post and ended up forgetting to properly edit on the final version.
They hold 430,000 BTC, a management fee of 2% means 8,600 BTC per year, this equals to almost 24 BTC per calendar day!
legendary
Activity: 2310
Merit: 1422

This means grayscale is profiting, from management fees only, no risk, no question answered, roughly 1,200 BTC per year, or 24 BTC per calendar days.
I am open to be taken for a fool......but 1200/365=3.2876. Am I right? It can't be 24 btc per calendar day otherwise it should be 24*365=8760
So management fees profit per day is roughly 3.28BTC.
Huge and decent profit anyway, no questions asked.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I played a little bit with the spreadsheet , trying once again to reconcile the nubers from the reddit post linked by @Ratimov.
Our sources are different, and I cannot understand why.
My Outstanding shares comes from Bloomberg, and it is a fairly reliable source.
I also doublechecked the information with Webarchives.org and seems correct. I asked Parakite, the reddit post author, about his sources, but he seemed less available to a double check.

So I went on, and I started studying how the "bitcoin per share" is crunched, trying to find an alternate way to discover inflows.

Well this made me realise that Grayscale holds roughly 400,000 Bitcoin.
He has a management fees of 2%.
This means grayscale is profiting, from management fees only, no risk, no question answered, roughly 8,600 BTC per year, or 24 BTC per calendar days.
This is a yuge profit.

I guess there is space for competitors!



You can check yourself here: spreadsheet

EDIT: corrected a typo thanks to @Karartma1


legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I finally had a few hours to look into @ratimov thread with a little bit of time.
I am referring to this one:
Grayscale bought BTC for $690M in the last 100 days

I updated my spreadsheet and I came up with this results:



On the last two columns you can see the expected inflows (both in USD and BTC) for each quarter.
They differ a little bit from the ones the reddit users obtained, supposedly on the same data. So I contacted him, and we might discover something useful!

I also (tab History) computed the cumulated BTC inflows over the last 100 days: again the results ar a bit off his calculation, but the impressive rally stays valid.

Also we are a little bit inside Q3, and it is going to be slower than Q2:



So don't be surprised when "disappointing data" come out, you red it here first!

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Grayscale bought BTC for $ 690M in the last 100 days. It is an update for your topic on Grayscale and I am happy to give you the link. Grayscale investment activities can be used to predict market movements but those things can happen before article release time (days or weeks).

Do I apply the rule "buy the rumor, sell the news"?

I posted a quick answer in that thread, but you gave me an idea and I am going to develop from it.
And my quick answer is no, they are not manipulating the market, but of course you have to keep an eye on those days where the lockup period ends, six months after meaningful capital injections. Those days could be a catalyst for sells, if the momentum of BTC is already pointing south.
hero member
Activity: 1442
Merit: 775
Grayscale bought BTC for $ 690M in the last 100 days. It is an update for your topic on Grayscale and I am happy to give you the link. Grayscale investment activities can be used to predict market movements but those things can happen before article release time (days or weeks).

Do I apply the rule "buy the rumor, sell the news"?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23


Question: if coinbase is the custodian for grayscale would coinbase's 4.7% include grayscale's 2%?

I have no proper evidence, but my feeling is yes, that figure is including Grayscale 2%.
This make sanse on a legal  point of view, as Coinbase said is custodian for 4.7%, so that includes the BTC owned by third party clients. Being custodian is different by being the owner (in legal terms).
Also this makes sense from a marketing point of view, where you want to appear the big swinging dick in the room.

full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 120
As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

Coinbase holds around 1 million coins, that's 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply. And technically, Satoshi also owns 1 million coins, so he's also the biggest player in Bitcoin ecosystem, though he's disqualified cause he's inactive now.

Still, holding 2% of supply is pretty big. I wonder if there's any entity that holds 2% of all gold in the world?

Question: if coinbase is the custodian for grayscale would coinbase's 4.7% include grayscale's 2%?

Most notable ones are the Index Provider being Tradeblock and Coinbase as custodian.
This means all the computations are executed on the back of Tradeblock price computations (more details on this later) and that the assets are held on a cold wallet at Coinbase.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Answering here to a post, because more in topic here.

I wonder if there are any other bitcoin ETPs or ETFs like BTCE that pose a reasonable alternarive to Grayscale. Specifically, one that is listed on a US exchange for US investors to buy. I can't seem to find any on Google.


The is a limited choice actually.

The situation in the US is pretty limited, this is particularly true for a private investor:



Being an accredited investors requires more available funds, (in the near future also an higher education) and implies a lesser contractual protection.
 

This explains (together with fiscal incentives) why Grayscale is able to maintain such a high premium to NAV: lack of competition.

In other part of the world the scenario is a little bit different, with more competition and products that are way cheaper:



I am very bullish on BTCE, passported and tradable in many European countries










legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
On a positive note: if the GBTC has amassed such a massive influx of money without proper institutional money, guess what might happen when/if the "real" institutions decide to invest!

where do you expect that proper institutional money to enter? i reckon with GBTC's ridiculous premium and 2% management fee, there are better options emerging. i know wilshire phoenix and fidelity are cooking up a bitcoin fund with a 0.9% expense ratio.

any idea what bakkt's custody fees are? all i can find are the original fact sheets that state there was a fee holiday through june 2020.

I didn't forget about your request, but it proved way more difficult to source this information than I originally tought. My men in Havana have , as usual, no clue about that, but I unleashed some new spy in the system. I will be back soon on this.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
On a positive note: if the GBTC has amassed such a massive influx of money without proper institutional money, guess what might happen when/if the "real" institutions decide to invest!

where do you expect that proper institutional money to enter? i reckon with GBTC's ridiculous premium and 2% management fee, there are better options emerging. i know wilshire phoenix and fidelity are cooking up a bitcoin fund with a 0.9% expense ratio.

any idea what bakkt's custody fees are? all i can find are the original fact sheets that state there was a fee holiday through june 2020.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Bloomberg published an interesting article about Graysale.
Nothing too new, but a couple of graphs are food for thoughts here.

First of all, a small recap of where we are, with ETP on bitcoin:



Of course GBTC is the name of the game, but other competitor are beginning to crowd the dance floor: particularly I am bullish on the BTCE ETP, being listed on a good number of European countries, thus being very widely reachable by a wide arena of investors.
Also We observed his pricing is quite consistent with the NAV. Here, my thread about this product: ETC Group to launch bitcoin ETP on Deutsche Boerse)

Still GBTC was able to hoover the vast majority of flows, he collected $ 1.6B in 2020 only, notwithstanding the very high premium of their shares over the NAV and their high management fees. To put this in perspective, this inflows is greater than 97% of every other ETF in the US.

Of course, as we have seen in the past posts, this is mainly due, in my opinion to the very favourable taxing deferral instrument status it sports.

The GBTC growth was phenomenal state, but in fact it is not "constant" they have burst in AUM, when they open their primary market share subscriptions. :

You can find a very similar graph in the OP's spreadsheet
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Apparently the TV ad played out:

Grayscale investments enjoys it’s best week ever after national ad blitz

Quote

Grayscale Investments had its best fundraising week in history following an ad blitz on a number of major television networks. According to the company’s CEO Barry Silbert, Grayscale netted $217 million in investments in the days following the campaign.

The firm’s Bitcoin Trust Fund was the biggest contributor to the success, adding  14,422.01411512 Bitcoin (BTC) at a value of $167,932,466, according to an SEC filing. The firm is currently holding 409,131 BTC, essentially removing it from circulation.

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

Coinbase holds around 1 million coins, that's 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply. And technically, Satoshi also owns 1 million coins, so he's also the biggest player in Bitcoin ecosystem, though he's disqualified cause he's inactive now.

Still, holding 2% of supply is pretty big. I wonder if there's any entity that holds 2% of all gold in the world?

Easy answer to this.

Approximately all the gold mined in human history is around 200,000 tonnes, that could be concentrated ona 22 meters cube






Quote
Total above-ground stocks (end-2019): 197,576 tonnes
  • Jewellery: 92,947 tonnes, 47.0%
  • Private investment: 42,619 tonnes, 21.6%
  • Official Holdings: 33,919 tonnes, 17.2%
  • Other: 28,090 tonnes, 14.2%
  • Below ground reserves: 54,000 tonnes
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/above-ground-stocks

So central Banks are the Official Holding part, around 34,000 tonnes, andare for sure the most concentrated.

On the officially reported holdings ofGold Reserves chart, the US Treasury is stated holding around 8,000 Tons of GOLD: that would be around 4% of the total supply. Second place for Germany, with 3,800 Tons, or 1,7% o the total supply.
So the answer to your question is: "Yes, there is only one institution controlling more than 2% of the total Gold Supply: the US Government".


When speaking about "entities" I was actually referring to "financial instuments" controlling bitcoins, e.g. ETF's, ETP's , pension funds, or even listed companies, holding Bitcoins.


legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1226
Livecasino, 20% cashback, no fuss payouts.
I found this a bit late but still very relevant and I wish more of the news items would be focusing on some of these factual items instead of just saying "Grayscale is big and institutional so it's good news for everyone" all the time.

And yes, we can say shit about their marketing all we want but they know how to do it for sure, they're targeting their audience, and it seems about right the way they're doing it.
legendary
Activity: 3024
Merit: 2148
As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

Coinbase holds around 1 million coins, that's 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply. And technically, Satoshi also owns 1 million coins, so he's also the biggest player in Bitcoin ecosystem, though he's disqualified cause he's inactive now.

Still, holding 2% of supply is pretty big. I wonder if there's any entity that holds 2% of all gold in the world?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
We can talk shit about greyscale about the way they are treating their customers, but for sure thy know how to market their funds.

First, they released a new ad.



Very nice campaign, less impact than #dropgold, but still a it is goinf to be of a certain impact.
Special mention for the Ramones Sountrack, very cool.

Secondly they released a Digital Currency Toolkit for Financial Advisor:


Quote
In the Toolkit
When you download the Digital Currency Toolkit for Financial Advisors, you can expect to learn more about: 

  • The Bitcoin Investment Thesis
  • Qualities of Bitcoin
  • Portfolio Simulations With and Without Digital Currencies
  • Growing Mainstream Acceptance for Blockchain and Bitcoin
  • A Snapshot of the Average U.S. Bitcoin Investor
  • Millennial Appeal & The Next Generation of Investors
  • Investing in Bitcoin
  • Frequently Asked Questions

Quote
We know that digital currencies may not be a fit for everyone, but having an objective understanding of the asset class is increasingly important. By providing financial advisors with what they need to stay informed, you can have thoughtful conversations with your clients about digital currencies. As the market evolves, so will this page, as we are committed to providing you with the most up-to-date intelligence to best guide your clients.

Pity they didn't include my equivalent:
5 Resources to teach Average Joe about Bitcoin



legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Pretty impressive, of course saying that Grayscale and Square together bought 135% of mined bitcoins is naive, but gives the idea of the buying pressure it is going to hit BTC markets soon.

Can we then say with at least some certainty that it is Grayscale that is responsible for the price increase that occurs after halving? I somehow lived in the belief that they buy BTC through OTC and that it does not affect the price too much - is it possible that even the OTC market can not withstand such buying pressure, so we now see effects in the open market?

On the other hand, are there perhaps other similar funds that do the same as Grayscale, in the sense that they buy some significant quantities of BTC and perhaps are not so exposed in the media?

I'm not sure if I've already asked that question in another thread, but how long do you think Grayscale can put this kind of pressure on the BTC market, can we expect even higher percentages in Q3/Q4?

As far as I know, Grayscale is by far the biggest player in the BTC ecosystem. As per the attached spreadsheet they now control more than 2% of the entire BCT supply. Square is getting bigger, and other competitors just started taking steps in this direction, given the huge amount of money to be made. Yet, the pressure is not against the newly mined bitcoin, but against the total supply. So a lot has to be done. But nonetheless, I expect this business growing steadily over the next quarters. Remember that bitcoin is still tiny. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is equal to the market cap that Amazon raised in the month of July only(more or less 220 billions).

legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 5637
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Pretty impressive, of course saying that Grayscale and Square together bought 135% of mined bitcoins is naive, but gives the idea of the buying pressure it is going to hit BTC markets soon.

Can we then say with at least some certainty that it is Grayscale that is responsible for the price increase that occurs after halving? I somehow lived in the belief that they buy BTC through OTC and that it does not affect the price too much - is it possible that even the OTC market can not withstand such buying pressure, so we now see effects in the open market?

On the other hand, are there perhaps other similar funds that do the same as Grayscale, in the sense that they buy some significant quantities of BTC and perhaps are not so exposed in the media?

I'm not sure if I've already asked that question in another thread, but how long do you think Grayscale can put this kind of pressure on the BTC market, can we expect even higher percentages in Q3/Q4?
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