Topic: Extrapolating 2014 Correction: Could $6,500 Be The Low For Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 425 times)

I lived thru the 2014-2015 bear market and I looked at your chart and I was puzzled and basically had to load-up the BTCUSD from that era and there is a difference and the difference is significant.

You don't have this shown on your chart but in Aug 2015 on Bitfinex, there was some event (forgot what ) that lead to bitcoin having a double bottom actually at the $165 area. I know this because I actually had a short from $300 that I covered exactly when that low broke and pretty much covered at the lowest low price in the last 5 years.

Bitfinex charts should be given preference since back then its where most of the trading was done. Had the most volume and liquidity. There was no Bitmex back then. So you should update your chart using the Bitfinex data.

In my opinion, that's why it won't work out. The context doesn't make sense. The 2015 accumulation range was the bottom of a multi-year bear market. The entire downtrend was characterized by lower highs and lower lows until late 2015 when the bear market was broken. In contrast, the 2018 bear market was broken by virtually all metrics in early 2019.

So in terms of Wyckoff analysis, this projection doesn't make sense. The rally to the $13,800s marked a massive sign of strength (much larger than the one that initiated the 2016-2017 bull market). That puts us in Phase D of an accumulation schematic, where the market is re-accumulating above the previous $3K-$6K trading range. For this phase to fail would mean we are in the middle of a distribution cycle again. There's no way we would just go sideways here for a year in that case.

We've already been ranging for 2 years now, so historically the argument for continued long term ranging is getting weaker by the day.

I'm sorry this chart doesn't make sense to you, if you are not able to see an alternative perspective. Price has been falling for 6 months, in the past two years it has formed lower highs on a macro scale ($20K and $14K), so no, I don't believe there is confirmation of the "end" of the correction/bear market - as there still hasn't been long enough consolidation period in proportion with the length of the correction (whether 1 year or 2 years, depending on your perspective). The more I read people's thoughts that "we're in a bull market" and there won't be any further consolidation, despite a wealth of evidence to the contrary, the more I'm convinced there will be consolidation in the near future (if not already in play).

It reminds me of the notorious "we won't break $6K" mentality in 2018, before we obviously did.


I won't argue your extrapolation, as you failed to extrapolate the price - mainly because the overlay would be irrelevant. You have a very different perspective, that's great, but I think you're best of arguing why this extrapolation isn't relevant with a version of your own, as opposed to unrelated alternative theories. For starters, your recovery and bear trap area extrapolated would indicate a 35% drop as a bear trap, whereas price has already fallen 50+%. Needless to say, it's barely possible to extrapolate.  Not forgetting that in 2016 we had considerable amount of consolidation, within your recovery and bear trap area, so ironically your chart would only prove my point of further consolidation.

but that chart doesn't make any sense. for starters why is the 2014 correction starting from July 2019 since by then the correction was not only long over but also we have been about 150% above the bottom of the correction!!!
in other words what this charts refers to as "2014 correction" looks to me like the 2015 correction after the first biggest rise which is more like a bear trap that due to some drama got longer.

this is how i would extrapolate 2014 data to today's data.
the first 2 periods (bubble pop and bull traps) happened exactly like 2014 then the next step of reaching bottom and having the accumulation ($150 vs $3200) is exactly the same but it was shorter this time as expected to be shorter and then the recovery which started in 2016 has already started in 2018 when price went out of $3200 and moved towards $13k. then the drop from that is just a correction that is similar to "2016" bear trap.

6k was the strong low level of 2018 and everything below that happened due to manipulation. It wasn't natural for BTC to go to 3k and the market showed it by sharply recovering from that low and a year later finding a support at the same level. 6k is the level of profitability for miners and it can be defended. I believe that if we dip down below it it's going to be shallow and temporary. Maybe 5,5k for a few days followed by a recovery above 6k once again.

To put it simply: wrong. I have not taken the whole 2013-2014 correction, I have taken the second part of it, from the peak of the "dead cat bounce" that occurred half way through the bear market. If we are to consider that we have been in a bear market for 2 years, with a mini bull run in between, then this extrapolation becomes very relevant, hence accurate so far. Regardless of the fact that in 2014 the price made lower lows, as clearly the mini bull run was twice as strong of the 2014 dead cat bounce (and went twice as far). Hence the extrapolation is based on the price dropping in a similar manner (from peak of dead cat bounce down to the low), but therefore in this case not a lower low than $3,200.

You are taking whole 2014 correction and compare it with 06/2019 - 2020 correction. There is one thing missing here. Whole 2018 year and half of 2019 where the actual correction from ATH started. Bear market is here for full 2 years despite 3 bullish months. I hardly doubt this analysis has any economical background ... just wishful thinking.

Back above the middle of the accumulation zone around $7,400. We could be looking for a move back up to $8,000 "New years rally" to re-test the top of the accumulation zone before re-testing $6,850 next year in February. If you look at 2014-2019 data, February is where we see swing lows arrive, specifically between February 6th-11th suspiciously.

Could $6,500 be the low? @Sawcruhteez explores the possibility in his latest video featuring this chart:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYs2MQshjiE&feature=youtu.com&t=2058

Updated chart (December 19th):

Comment: Recent price action wicked just below the support level of the accumulation zone, similar to 2014 correction, and remains on the path of accumulation.

Sometimes the simplest extrapolations are best. No indicators on this chart, this is a pure extrapolation of the 2014-2015 correction and accumulation phase, that although is not in proportion by time or price, has notable similarities with the current fractal in play. Could $6,500 be the new swing low? Absolutely. This would imply an accumulation zone between $6.5-$8.3K for approximately 40 weeks, with the current correction lasting a reasonable 1 Year. This current extrapolation points to a breakout in price above $14K in July 2020, followed by a new all time high 6 months later in February 2021.